April is cold. We have rainouts and snowouts to prove it. Velocity and temperature are related. We have Mike Fast pointing to August as the velocity peak to prove it.
That said, April velocity loss is interesting to us. Velocity stabilizes very quickly, and the difference between April and August is on the order of a half mile per hour — some hurlers have lost more than that delta and aren’t getting it all back.
And now Bill Petti is adding two asterisks to April velocity loss that makes it even worse. Here they are:
Pitchers who are down at least 1 mph compared to April of the previous year will go on to finish the season down at least 1 mph about 38% of the time.Pitchers that were down at least 1 mph in April had an arm injury rate of 11%. Compared to 4% for non-velocity decliners, that’s an increased likelihood of 2.6.
So, to recap: pitchers with April velocity loss are very likely to continue showing velocity that’s lower than they showed the year before, slightly likely to have the same or worse velocity loss all year, and slightly more likely to get injured. All of this sounds very relevant to fantasy owners.


