Archive for the ‘Projections’ Category

Worry, Woe, and Rest of Season Projections

Posted by Drew Fairservice under Los Angeles Angels, Los Angeles Dodgers, News And Notes, Projections, Toronto Blue Jays on May 09, 2013

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim v Houston Astros

If you are a fan of the Toronto Blue Jays, Los Angeles Angels, or Los Angeles Dodgers, holding onto belief that your team still has time to make an impact in the playoff races, you don’t care much for projection systems and playoff odds. Cold arithmetic isn’t going to heal your wounded heart, nor will it temper your excitement should your chosen franchise string together a few wins, infusing said heart with valuable hope.

If you aren’t a fan of one of those teams, you can look at Fangraphs new projected standings/depth charts feature and laugh until your sides hurt. Because, according to “the numbers”, it’s all over but the crying.

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Try As You Might, You Cannot Erase the Past

Posted by Drew Fairservice under Analysis, Projections, Toronto Blue Jays on Feb 27, 2013

Baltimore Orioles v Minnesota Twins

It is hard to let go of the past. With baseball players specifically, the past does not always inform the future as much as we’d like. It becomes harder and harder for a once-great player to recover the form which made him great in the first place as he ages. Add injuries to the mix and a former MVP turns into a role player in just a few years.

If you needed to choose between the careers of Justin Morneau or Adam Lind, you would pick Justin Morneau every single time. Morneau is more decorated, played longer, made more money and simply has a better career to date.

Career is one thing, the future is another. While Adam Lind is less than an ideal fit for the left-handed side of the Jays DH/1B rotation this year. Realistically speaking, he isn’t that much worse an option than the big Canadian currently playing out the final year of his contract for the Twins, despite Morneau’s recent overtures.

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Happy PECOTA Day, Giancarlo Stanton

Posted by Drew Fairservice under Giancarlo Stanton, Projections on Feb 11, 2013

Miami Marlins v Washington Nationals

The granddaddy of them all, the PECOTA projections, strode onto their virtual stage today. Any time you bill your product as “deadly accurate” it invites additional scrutiny but, for many people, PECOTA is the gold standard. Whether or not it lives up to that billing, that is a matter for taller foreheads than my own.

The system is more than just spitting out slashlines based on ageing curves and the like. Adjustments are made for ballparks (both home and away) and playing time. For many people, it justifies the expense (nominal as it might be) of a full BP superscription for the year.

Enough with the passive-aggressive sales pitch, let’s put these numbers to work: how to they expect the Marlins 23-year old masher, Getting Blanked raison d’etre, Giancarlo Stanton, to fare in 2013?

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Projecting Jurickson Profar

Posted by Drew Fairservice under Jurickson Profar, Projections on Jan 21, 2013

Jurikson Profar is one the top two prospects in baseball. Like the other top prospect, Dylan Bundy, Profar made a cameo appearance at the big league level in 2012. The Rangers used Profar sparingly, as they already have a terrific shortstop in place. Soon, Profar is sure to force the Rangers hand and insert himself into their lineup.

There just aren’t that many teenaged, switch-hitting shortstops who make the big leagues at 19. Profar is on the fast track, a player Keith Law describes as one who improves even as the level of competition increases and shows no holes in his game.

The Rangers are on to something quite special – and they have the luxury of taking their time with this incredibly valuable asset. Profar ranked as Law’s top prospect in baseball after his midseason update and sat atop Kevin Goldstein`s midseason list as well.

What if they did jump him to an everyday job in the big leagues in 2013? What if they traded him, perhaps in a fabled Giancarlo Stanton package? What kind of numbers would the 20-year old put up this year? Let’s ask the projection systems what they think.

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Hold Your Expectations: d’Arnaud “Could” Open Season with Mets

Posted by Scott Lewis under New York Mets, Projections on Jan 18, 2013

When Sandy Alderson shipped R.A. Dickey to the Toronto Blue Jays, he did so with an eye on the future. According to the Mets GM’s latest WFAN radio hit, a key piece of that future could debut with the Mets sooner than later. Alderson hinted that Travis d’Arnaud could open the season with the big club, via New York Daily News:

“I just don’t want to rule anything out,” Alderson said. “But at the same time, I don’t want to create false expectations for our fans or put pressure on Travis. He hasn’t played since last June (because of a knee injury). . . . As far as Opening Day is concerned, he could be with us. But we have a very capable veteran in John Buck as well.”

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Projecting Anthony Rizzo

Posted by Drew Fairservice under Anthony Rizzo, Projections on Jan 16, 2013

In part three of what already exceeded even the wildest of expectations, the curious eye of Getting Blanked looks at the projections for young studs from around the baseball world. Today, Anthony Rizzo.

Do you know how good Anthony Rizzo is? If you do, please let me in on your secrets. Anthony Rizzo looks good and his stat lines look good, too. He remains a mere first baseman. Lots of people can put up okay numbers at first. Can Anthony Rizzo ever become a first baseman of the Prince Fielder/Albert Pujols “larger than life wOBA” mould?

Rizzo finally made his Cubs début in June after the Cubs kept his service time in check, starring for the awful Cubs to the tune of a .349 wOBA with 15 home runs. Good numbers but his 116 wRC+ ranks him 15th among first basemen with 350 PAs, behind Brandon Belt and narrowly ahead of player like Freeman and Mark Teixeira.

So he’s good but not great? Is that fair to say? Keith Law likes Rizzo in 2013, ranking him ahead of the more established Freddie Freeman and the more hyped Eric Hosmer in his top 25 under 25 listicle. Do the projection systems agree?

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Projecting Bryce Harper

Posted by Drew Fairservice under Bryce Harper, Projections on Jan 10, 2013

In part two of what is sure to be at least a two part series, the curious eye of Getting Blanked looks at the projections for young studs from around the baseball world. Today, Bryce Harper.

Keith Law released his top 25 under 25 ranking today for ESPN Insiders. Always an interesting exercise, Law place Mike Trout at the top and Bryce Harper second. This should come as no surprise, as Mike Trout is your father now. Bryce Harper might be tougher to take for some fans, as the NL Rookie of the Year looked good in 2012 but didn’t break records and faces like his AL counterpart.

Law points to Harper’s midseason struggles, where pitchers adjusted to his strengths and sent the Nats outfielder into a prolonged slump. Calls to platoon Harper came quietly, as the Nats battled for a playoff spot. Luckily, Washington was far enough ahead that Harper got to keep playing – and adjust.

And adjust Harper did, turning his season around and bringing his yearly stats up to respectability. Harper finished with a .352 wOBA, with 22 home runs and 18 steals as a 19-year old. The question we ask the projection systems: what will he do for an encore?

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