No. 1 seeds have had a hell of a lot of trouble getting through the divisional playoffs recently. But once they get through, they rarely stumble again. Top seeds are 6-3 in conference championship games since 2002. That’s why the smart money is on the Colts and Saints this weekend. Here’s how I rank the four teams still alive in the National Football League, with updated notes and thoughts on each squad. 

1. Indianapolis Colts 

Indy has some very obvious advantages over the Jets, matchup-wise. The Colts have had the Ravens’ number for years, and Rex Ryan has turned New York into a virtual carbon copy of Baltimore, particularly from a defensive standpoint.

Regardless, the Colts can impede what the Jets do best. New York blitzes more than anyone in football, but Peyton Manning is sacked less often than any quarterback in the game. New York has a scary-good secondary featuring an All-Pro corner, but Manning rarely has trouble with even top-end pass defences. 

Of course it’s Indy who’s dealing with all the pressure. The Jets obviously have nothing to lose at this point, while the Colts — who already were dealing with the pressure of proving that their late-season resting policy wasn’t going to bite them in the ass … again — now have to enter the conference championship game as an overwhelming favourite, which isn’t always a good thing. 

Just ask the Chargers. 

2. Minnesota Vikings 

From a strictly X’s and O’s standpoint, the Vikings are a better team than New Orleans. They have more depth on defence, a fiercer pass rush, a more experienced quarterback, a better running back and a slightly more talented offensive line (although I still have my concerns about right tackle Phil Loadholt, especially against Saints’ pass-rushing specialist Bobby McCray). New Orleans has a secret weapon on special teams (Reggie Bush, who scored twice on punt returns when the two teams met last year), but the Vikes counter that with Percy Harvin. 

Despite that, I’m still leaning toward the Saints on Sunday, mainly because of the venue. Minnesota was 9-0 this year at home, but the Vikes were only 4-4 on the road. The one thing keeping the Vikes in it is that they might sorta feel at home this week. They’ll be on the rug (like in Minnesota), and they’ll be under a roof (like in Minnesota). The only difference, of course, will be the fans. That’s what gives the Saints the edge. 

3. New Orleans Saints 

Here’s the biggest difference between Brett Favre and Drew Brees, both of whom are coming off career years: Favre knows what it feels like to screw up in situations like these. He’s made costly mistakes in the extreme splotlight (I.e. his overtime pick against the Giants in the ’07 NFC championship game), and I think that works to his advantage. 

Here’s the second biggest difference between Brett Favre and Drew Brees: Favre is much more susceptible to making mistakes in the first place. 

I don’t expect Minnesota’s defence to do what it was able to do against the Cowboys. Without left tackle Flozell Adams and with Tony Romo taking his sweet-ass time in the pocket on more than a few occasions, the Cowboys made Ray Edwards look like Bruce Smith on Sunday. That was the difference. New Orleans’ offensive line is only marginally better than Dallas’, and the Saints’ tackles — remember, Pro Bowl left tackle Jammal Brown has been out all year — are probably weaker than the Cowboys’ combination of Adams, Marc Colombo and impressive rookie Doug Free, but Brees doesn’t hold onto the ball as long as Romo does. In fact, the Saints gave up only 20 sacks this season — best in the NFC. 

4. New York Jets 

It’s a given that the only way the Jets can win on Sunday is by completely tearing it up on the ground. Shonn Greene and Thomas Jones have to tire out Indy’s 24th-ranked run defence. But statistics don’t tell the whole story with the Colts’ defence. They’re one of the quickest units in the league and pursue the ball carrier with the aggressiveness of (insert Rosie O’Donnell food-related joke here). The running game will have to carry the Jets if they want to pull off an upset, but Mark Sanchez is also going to have to help out. 

Will that advantage in the running game and a mistake-free game from Sanchez be enough for New York? Logic still probably says no, but crazier things have happened. The Jets, after all, have become this year’s Cinderella. Only problem is, Cinderellas rarely ever finish their runs.  How many Cinderellas have actually won it all in the four North American major sports leagues over the last decade? 

NFL: 2 (Patriots in 2001, Giants in 2007)
NHL: 1 (Ducks in 2006-07)
MLB: 2 (Marlins in 2003, Cardinals in 2006)
NBA: 0 

And let’s face it: Although there is a Cinderella or two every year during March madness, that team rarely makes the Final Four and literally never wins the national championship. 

Not trying to be a cynic here — just saying that the odds are still stacked tall against the Jets. In a combined 40 years of pro sports dating to 1999, we’ve had only five Cinderella world champions (and I’d argue that the Ducks and Cards are sort of stretches).