Knowshon or Shonn? Which second-year back will become a star in 2010?

While quarterback is arguably the most important position in real football, running back is the most crucial position in fantasy football. And that’s why it’s extra freaking frustrating that platoon backfields now dominate the NFL. Only a few “sure things” remain in offensive backfields. Sean Tomlinson and I try to sort through the madness in our fantasy running back preview.

Differences in opinion

Gagnon: Sean, we went to university together and have worked together at The Score for about a year, and I don’t think we’ve ever agreed on anything … ever. Remember that time you insisted Dustin Hoffman was in Star Wars? Anyhow, we somehow have decided to agree at the worst possible time. We have the same top four running backs. In fact, our rankings are nearly identical. But there are two particular players we don’t see eye-to-eye on, and both are coming off their rookie seasons. So my question for you is, why are you overvaluing Knowshon Moreno and undervaluing Shonn Greene?

Tomlinson: I wake up thinking of ways to argue with you. Really, I do. Before we became all high-tech with these newfangled gadgets called BlackBerries and iPhones, men used to carry black books on them for girls’ phone numbers. I would carry a notepad just in case any argument against you came to mind. At the end of each day I’d have it full. Yet now I’m lost. Of all the players to debate, Moreno and Greene would have been pretty far down my list.

Admittedly I went with the safe play by ranking Moreno one spot ahead of Greene. Sure, Greene was brilliant at times last year, but he still took a back seat to Thomas Jones, the veteran who carried the load in New York. Now Greene will be the featured back for the Jets, a role Moreno has essentially already played to the tune of nearly 1,000 yards in Denver. There’s little doubt in my mind that they’ll both give you great production, but as we sit here right now at the end of July you know what you’re getting from Moreno a little more, hence my conservative approach.

Gagnon: My big thing with Greene is that he’s going to be the featured back in a system that should be both fairly successful and run-oriented at the same time. Mark Sanchez isn’t ready to throw it all over the field, LaDainian Tomlinson isn’t the player he used to be, and the Jets offensive line is equipped to give a guy like Greene room to gallop. Moreno has no support on a team that took a giant step backward in the offseason. It also doesn’t help that Josh McDaniels simply isn’t the kind of coach who leans heavily on one particular tailback (if any at all).

Sleepers

Gagnon: It’s hard to find differences in opinion when there aren’t any — but this should at least spark some debate. I’ve got Donald Brown jotted down as a big-time sleeper this year. People still see him as a handcuff for Joseph Addai, but I think Brown just had bad luck with injuries. I expect him to bounce back in his second season, and that’s why I’ve left Addai out of my top 20. We talk about all these platoons we’re sure about; this is one I’m predicting will develop early.

Tomlinson: There’s little doubt that Addai and Brown will form a platoon from nearly the opening snap, and that’s fine. It’s no secret that running back tandems have become a growing trend as teams try to keep some of their most athletic players healthy over a grueling season. But we’re operating in fantasyland here, not reality, so your task is to find the asset in a backfield that has the best chance to put up the most production. Nothing says production in fantasy football quite like touchdowns, and Addai scored a lot of those last year considering his platoon situation. When Brown was healthy, he would primarily be used between the 20s and Addai was given the goal-line opportunities, which led to 10 touchdowns.

You put rookies Ryan Mathews and Jahvid Best in your top 20, while they barely missed mine. Best is the one that I’m really excited about, even though calling him a sleeper may be a bit of a stretch. He’ll fit well into the Reggie Bush mold, just with a few more carries in Detroit. His blazing speed out of the backfield makes Best ideal as a pass-catching back. Going a little deeper, with Steve Slaton’s fumble troubles, rookie Ben Tate could sneak in. A second-round pick out of Auburn, Tate has surprising speed for his size, and could develop into an efficient goal-line back.

Gagnon: Well that pretty much renders our “rookies” category useless. But I agree with Best. We’ll discuss Mathews more in a bit. Other non-rookie sleepers I’m looking at: Beanie Wells (with Kurt Warner and Anquan Boldin gone, the Cards will have to shift some focus to the running game), Fred Jackson (Chan Gailey avoids platoons and Jackson’s the cream of Buffalo’s crop) and Leon Washington (last year’s injury was scary, but he’ll battle back and earn some serious playing time in Seattle, despite Justin Forsett being a baller as well).

Tomlinson: What can I say? Running back has traditionally been the position where rookies can make the most noise, and I’m confident in the top of this class, especially Best. I like Wells too, and will add Jerome Harrison. The dreaded committee will likely develop between Harrision and Montario Hardesty (another rookie), but it’s always nice to stash someone with Harrision’s upside on your bench. As I wrote in my rankings, it may have been against awful teams, but Harrision ran for 561 yards over the final three games last season.

Busts

Gagnon: I’m really not feeling Michael Turner or Cedric Benson, and I really can’t explain why (which is probably a bad thing considering I’m paid to do exactly that). I’m not convinced Turner can stay healthy and regain his form from 2008 — a season in which he touched the ball 382 times. He’s never been a receiving option and Jerious Norwood is better than anyone gives him credit. We all know Benson has a crapload of talent, but I still get the feeling last year was a bit of an anomaly for both Benson and the Bengals. They’ll fall back to earth this year.

Tomlinson: I’m on board with Benson as a likely bust. You can’t even use the word “breakout” when describing last year for Benson, because he was far past the point in his career in which he can break out. It just smells of a season when the stars aligned. When you look at his production over the three previous seasons it sure seems like Benson is due for a regression.

A historically strong running game is what will often get Steelers running backs drafted high. But with the loss of Willie Colon, and major questions in the passing game with Ben Roethlisberger suspended for at least the first four games and Santonio Holmes long gone, I’m not a believer in Rashard Mendenhall this season. Also, the addition of Thomas Jones should throw up red flags when you’re about to draft Jamaal Charles based on his performance in the second half of last season.

Gagnon: But maybe the changes in Pittsburgh will give Mendenhall a chance to be a star. There’s definitely some risk there.

Oh, and stay away from Pierre Thomas and Matt Forte, too. Reggie Bush and the passing game will always overshadow Thomas (whose stock is too high because of his playoff performances and Super Bowl victory), and Chester Taylor is a better back than Forte.

Rookies

Gagnon: I think we’ve already covered most of the rookies, but let me toss you my thoughts on some of the more notable ones:

Mathews: I fear we’re overdoing it with him a tad. People love that he’ll be the primary ball carrier from the get-go, but that doesn’t mean he’s necessarily ready to rush for 1,400 yards.

Best: With the passing game taking the heat off and with Kevin Smith not 100 per cent, Best has a great chance to succeed right away.

Tate: Worth a late pick, but that Houston backfield is mighty crowded and I’m apparently the only man in the world who hasn’t completely given up on Steve Slaton yet.

Hardesty: Here’s my real sleeper of the group. Apparently the Browns have already fallen in love with him. He’ll challenge Harrison for reps immediately.

C.J. Spiller: A massive question mark … just like that entire damn Buffalo team.

Tomlinson: That about covers it. There aren’t any other rookies worth considering in your draft, although if you took Adrian Peterson early it isn’t a bad idea to take Toby Gerhart late as a handcuff. And when the inevitable LaDainian Tomlinson injury comes midseason, snatching up Joe McKnight as Greene’s handcuff would be sound strategy, too. But barring a major injury, McKnight and Gerhart clearly won’t be impact players this year.

Gagnon: Alright. With the long weekend coming up our schedules are jumbled, so you’ll likely be waiting in suspense for the wide receiver and tight end rankings until early next week. I hope to God people aren’t actually doing anything with this advice.