GLS Fantasy TE Preview

There's no clear-cut No. 1 fantasy tight end. At least not according to Gagnon and Tomlinson.

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The Goal-Line Stand finishes off its four-part fantasy football preview with tight ends. We’d do kicker rankings, but how stupid is that? Sean Tomlinson and I have quite a few disagreements throughout our lists, so this should be at least mildly interesting. For this blog, that’s a victory.

Differences in opinion

Gagnon: As always, let’s start at the top. I have Vernon Davis taking yet another big leap forward this year and becoming the top tight end in fantasy. Michael Crabtree’s presence from the start of the season should give him a boost. You have Davis in a more typical slot, behind the likes of Antonio Gates, Jason Witten and Tony Gonzalez. I have concerns about each of those guys, all of whom aren’t spring chickens anymore, at least compared to Davis.

Tomlinson: You’re right that Gates, Witten, and especially Gonzo are aging. That’s an indisputable fact that can be verified in a court of law. But we’re not interested in facts here. We’re interested in how these players fit into the offensive schemes of their respective teams, and the personnel around them. I’d argue–in fact I am arguing it–that of all the positions in fantasy football, tight ends are the most closely tied to the system in which they’re playing, and the most dependent on the rest of the offence. I love Davis too, and would support you on the mammoth step forward for Vernon campaign if Alex Smith didn’t have the keys to San Francisco’s offence. Smith briefly provided reason for optimism last year, but for the most part was pretty erratic.

Gagnon: Smith is the only question mark surrounding Davis. Gates is aging and might not have Vincent Jackson to distract defences, while Witten just doesn’t score enough. Dez Bryant’s addition to the arsenal in Dallas certainly won’t help that.

Sleepers

Gagnon: I also noticed I have Owen Daniels a lot higher than you — and most prognosticators — have him. Don’t people realize that Daniels had a ridiculous start to 2009? Before he got hurt, he was the best tight end a fantasy owner could have. Nowadays, guys are coming back from torn ACLs like broken fingernails. Daniels isn’t getting a lot of love on draft boards, which is why he’s my primary sleeper.

Tomlinson: Unfortunately it seems we’re subtly finding ways to agree again, which is troubling. Provided Matt Schaub’s super 2009 season wasn’t a fluke, Daniels is in a perfect situation in a very potent offence in Houston, the best passing offence in the league. Trouble is, I’m not entirely sold on Daniels’ “ridiculous” start to last season prior to his injury. Sure, he was scoring on a steady clip, but Daniels’ yardage numbers were inflated by two big games against weak secondaries (Arizona and San Francisco). Is that splitting hairs? Maybe, and Daniels has proven himself in the past (862 yards in 2008), but I can’t bump him into the top five yet hoping for a true explosion this season.

I’ll take another player that could get overlooked as my sleeper: Anthony Fasano. Never one to rack up yardage, Fasano scored seven touchdowns two seasons ago, and then only two last year when Miami reverted to being primarily a running team. Like most, I expect Brandon Marshall to make a sizable impact in the Dolphins’ passing game, meaning Fasano could be in for some more quality red-zone looks. He still isn’t anyone that should be taken in drafts (maybe a late-round flyer), but Fasano is a viable option to provide depth on your bench.

Gagnon: We should caution readers that you’re clearly looking at Fasano as a backup. The dude is not a fantasy starter at this point. OK, I’ve got a couple more sleepers: Jermichael Finley is headed into his first full season as a starter and is only 23. In that offence, watch out. And don’t look past Zach Miller, who doesn’t score a lot (sort of like you, Sean) but puts up a lot of yards. The touchdowns will eventually come. Maybe this is the year.

Tomlinson: Oh Bradley, always too cautious. I clearly didn’t recommend Fasano as a starter. I’m insane enough to rank Calvin Johnson 13th among wide receivers, but I draw the line at Anthony Fasano. If sports and pop culture have taught us anything, it’s that people with the last name Miller are often talented (Reggie, Ryan) and sometimes very attractive (Siena). I’m not a huge Jason Campbell fan, and really, who is. But if Zach Miller can post solid numbers with JaMarcus Russell at quarterback, he can do just fine with Campbell at the helm.

Busts

Tomlinson: Speaking of Millers, the most obvious bust is Heath Miller. He’ll still end the year with respectable numbers, but like everyone in the Pittsburgh offence there is great uncertainty surrounding the first four-to-six weeks as Ben Roethlisberger serves his penalty for the infamous night of fun in Milledgeville. Dustin Keller–whose numbers already dipped once Braylon Edwards was added to the Jets receiving corps late last season–could dip even further with the addition of Santonio Holmes.

Gagnon: So I suppose Heath is a Miller who is very attractive. I don’t agree with you on Keller. Dude is still pretty young and he was fantastic in the playoffs last year, scoring three touchdowns to go with 181 yards in three games. I think that was a sign of things to come. He’ll be good. I’m a bit worried about Brent Celek. He only has the one good year under his belt and now there’s been a change at quarterback. I mentioned in the wide receiver preview that I think DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin will become a big-time duo this season. If that’s the case, I’m not sure Celek will get a lot of balls thrown his way.

Tomlinson: My lack of trust in Kevin Kolb has knocked the entire Philly offence down a notch in these rankings, but if and when he does find his groove I’d have to agree and think that Kolb will gravitate towards the speedy wideouts, and Celek could be left with scraps as the third option.

Rookies

Gagnon: Jermaine Gresham is obviously the guy to keep an eye on here. It’s tough to tell if the crowded receiving corps in Cincinnati will help or hurt the first-round pick out of Oklahoma. With so many quality tight ends available, I’m not sure Gresham’s worthy of a roster spot at this point, but he should be monitored. You’re pretty high on Gresham, Sean, and that probably means people should stay away.

Tomlinson: Probably, or maybe there are four people crazy enough to actually take my advice. It’s easy to look at the signing of Terrell Owens and his pairing with Chad Ochocinco, shrug your shoulders, and downgrade Gresham due to a perceived lack of targets. But unless you’re in a keeper league, Gresham should be available at a reasonable price compared to other tight ends. I’m not quite confident enough that you should draft him as a starter, but given his beastly frame (6’6″, 261 pounds), and gaudy numbers at Oklahoma, it’s not a stretch to see Gresham making an impact as a rookie. There just aren’t enough truly elite tight ends to go around a fantasy league, so stash Gresham on your bench to start the year, and with his high upside you may be starting him before long.

Gagnon: Or not. But we all know much of this is a crapshoot. That does it for our 2010 fantasy preview. We’ll continue to have week-by-week fantasy coverage throughout the season. We apologize in advance.

BRAD’S LIST
1 Vernon Davis Will only get better with a fully prepared Michael Crabtree.
2 Dallas Clark Peyton Manning’s “other” go-to guy. Stats get better every year.
3 Owen Daniels And if his knee wasn’t a question mark, I might have ranked him higher.
4 Antonio Gates Will the Vincent Jackson debacle just force Philip Rivers to go to him more?
5 Jason Witten Just doesn’t get enough looks in the red zone.
6 Brent Celek Still has to prove that last year’s success wasn’t an anomaly.
7 Jermichael Finley Should turn it up a notch and become Aaron Rodgers’ second favourite target.
8 Tony Gonzalez So-so first year in Atlanta. Has the 34-year-old started to regress?
9 Kellen Winslow No one’s questioning his talent, but he can be unpredictable. So can his QBs.
10 John Carlson Pete Carroll’s pro-tight end offence should give him a boost.
11 Visanthe Shiancoe You know exactly what you’re getting if Brett Favre returns.
12 Heath Miller Big numbers in 2009. A lot of uncertainty in Pittsburgh in 2010.
13 Dustin Keller After a big postseason, he’s a top sleeper candidate.
14 Zach Miller Had 805 receiving yards last year. Now he just needs to find the end zone.
15 Chris Cooley With Fred Davis around, Cooley’s become strictly a fantasy backup.
16 Todd Heap That Baltimore offence is only getting better.
17 Jeremy Shockey Will have some big days in that offence, but hard to predict when they’ll come.
18 Greg Olsen Mike Martz will improve the offence, but he’ll kill Olsen’s value in the process.
19 Kevin Boss A decent backup. Not really draft worthy though.
20 Brandon Pettigrew Last-round flyer?
SEAN’S LIST
1 Antonio Gates Becomes main focus of offence again with LT gone and Jackson a likely holdout.
2 Dallas Clark Top in tight end receiving yards last year.
3 Jason Witten Will lose some touches to Miles Austin/ Dez Bryant, but still among the elite.
4 Tony Gonzalez Showing little signs of age.
5 Vernon Davis The scariest looking guy on this board.
6 Owen Daniels Healthy Daniels perfect complement to Andre Johnson.
7 Kellen Winslow Erratic personality and, more importantly, quarterbacks.
8 Brent Celek Ranked higher in many places, but I need to see more of Kevin Kolb.
9 Visanthe Shiancoe (Insert comment about value attached to Brett Favre coming back.)
10 Jermichael Finley Ready for a jump as starter for a full season in Green Bay.
11 Chris Cooley McNabb in decline, but still clear improvement over Campbell.
12 Zach Miller Consistently posts solid numbers in poor Raiders passing offence.
13 Jeremy Shockey Like others, suffers due to abundance of Saints’ weapons.
14 Todd Heap Nearly left for dead after 2007, scored six touchdowns in 2009.
15 John Carlson Two productive years in mediocre passing offence.
16 Greg Olsen Jay Cutler’s favourite target, but let’s hope Cutler is on target this season.
17 Dustin Keller Great athlete, but could get limited looks with Santonio Holmes in the fold.
18 Kevin Boss Didn’t break 80 yards receiving once last year.
19 Heath Miller (Insert Ben Roethlisberger impact comment.)
20 Jermaine Gresham The rookie tight end in the best position to make a fantasy impact early.

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