The guys at The Score Radio like to throw some cash down on games here and there. Just a little. Producer/host Rob Pizzola knows his football, and knows his gambling. And while the Goal-Line Stand will continue to pick games each Friday, we’re bringing Pizzola over to contribute his thoughts on the NFL, particularly from a gambling perspective. Here’s Pizzola’s debut column:

PIZZOLA’S PIGSKIN PREVIEW: WEEK 1

SHAMELESS PLUG
Everything written about in this blog will also be discussed in great deal on my weekly NFL show.  ‘Up2Date in the NFL’ airs Sunday mornings at 10am ET and takes you all the way up until game time.  We are joined weekly by Joe Fortenbaugh, fantasy football expert at the National Football Post and Jorge Gonzalez, professional sports handicapper for VegasWise.  If you’d like to get on the show, feel free to give us a call on Sunday mornings at 1-888-9-HARDCORE.

SEASON PREDICTIONS
Before I get into breaking down Week 1 of the season, here are my predictions for how the NFL season will play out.  Over the course of the NFL season, numerous injuries and unforeseen incidents are expected to occur; however, this is how I feel the season would play out with all teams at 100%:

So there you have it … I’m picking Green Bay to beat Baltimore in the Super Bowl.  The Ravens will have to survive without Ed Reed for the first third of the season, but once they get him back and healthy, this will be a team to be reckoned with.  In the end, though, the Packers are the most complete team in football.  Aaron Rodgers is ready to take the next step and lead his team to a Super Bowl victory.

OVERRATED TEAMS

New York Jets – The Jets are a solid football team, and it wouldn’t surprise me if they were playing for the Super Bowl in early February this year; however, they have gotten far too much love from the so-called experts in the offseason.  I have projected the Jets to go 11-5 this year, so you may be wondering how I can have them in my overrated section.  Well, it’s simple … People are talking about this team like they can conceivably go 16-0 this season and that they have no apparent flaws … Those people are wrong.  For the majority of last season, Mark Sanchez was considered a liability at quarterback.  Granted, Sanchez has far more weapons at his disposal this season with the addition of Santonio Holmes and the elevation of Shonn Greene into the starter’s role, but in the end, he is still a young, inexperienced second year quarterback.  Additionally, New York has turned themselves into the most hated team in the NFL, which will ensure that every one of their opponents is geared up to play against them.  In the end, this is a good football team—not a great one.

New England Patriots – Do people honestly believe that because Tom Brady has a chip on his shoulder heading into this season that the Patriots are going to become the Patriots of old?  This team has a handful of starters on defence that would be lucky to be second stringers on the better teams in football.  New England will score some points this season, but will ultimately falter with their lack of a running game (I have no faith in five-headed monster of Fred Taylor, Sammy Morris, Laurence Maroney, Kevin Faulk, and BenJarvus Green-Ellis) and their porous defence.  Sorry Pats fans.

San Diego Chargers – Again, don’t get me wrong, the Chargers are a solid football team, but they have some serious question marks that may be exploited this season.  Although they have some big names on defence, their front seven is an enormous issue heading into this season.  I have no faith in their linebacking core which is spearheaded by the most overrated player of all-time, Shawne Merriman, and their defensive line is among the NFL’s worst.  Furthermore, why is everyone talking about Ryan Mathews like he’s the second coming of God?  Norv Turner’s goal is to get Mathews in the neighbourhood of 300 total touches this season, and if you ask me, that’s a big load for a rookie running back to handle.  I’ll be surprised if Mathews gets through this entire season without an injury.

Chicago Bears – What’s with the love for this Bears offense?  When are people going to realize that Mike Martz is only a recognizable name because of Kurt Warner, Marshall Faulk, and Isaac Bruce?  With Martz as the new OC in Chicago, the Bears will become a pass-heavy offense.  What’s the most important contributing factor in the success of a pass-heavy offense?  You guessed it … the offensive line.  The Bears have one of the worst O-lines in the league.  It’s going to be a long, long season for Jay Cutler and company.

UNDERRATED

Pittsburgh Steelers – Ben Roethlisberger is only missing the first four games of this season, yet people talk about the Steelers like they’re a write-off heading into the season.  When you have a linebacking core that features James Harrison, LaMarr Woodley, James Farrior, and Lawrence Timmons (the best in the league in my opinion), you have a defence that can keep you in any ball game.  The Steelers will lean heavily on Rashard Mendenhall and their defence to get them through the first four games of the season, and once Roethlisberger returns to action, put the Steelers back amongst the best teams in the NFL. 

Houston Texans – This team is a legitimate Super Bowl contender.  Yes, I am aware that this franchise has never made the playoffs, but this time around, it’s different.  Last year, the Texans lost two games because of Kris Brown missed field goals and lost an additional two games because of blunders on the one-yard line.  A mediocre 9-7 season could have easily been an outstanding 13-3 season.  What’s different this year?  Arian Foster at running back is a bruiser and will cure the Texans short-yardage issues that troubled them last year.  Neil Rackers replaces Kris Brown as the Texans’ kicker and believe me, Rackers can be relied on (94.1% accuracy last season, 89.3% in 2008).  Furthermore, this is a team that doesn’t have one single position of weakness.  We’ll see what the Texans are made of in Week 1 as they host the Indianapolis Colts.

New York Giants – I am writing this a huge Dallas Cowboys fan and I can readily admit that the Giants scare the crap out of me.  Eli Manning has all the tools at his disposal this year.  Hakeem Smith and Steve Smith both showed flashes of brilliance last season, and will be much improved this season.  Additionally, Brandon Jacobs was wearing down last year, and Ahmad Bradshaw’s promotion to starter is a monstrous upgrade.  The Giants defence is also very underrated as they bolster a good secondary and a great pass rush.  Tom Coughlin is a good head coach and will have this team ready to play this season.
 
WEEK 1 PREDICTIONS

DOLPHINS @ BILLS
There’s a lot working against the Dolphins in this game.  They are 0-5 in Buffalo since 2004 and none of those Bills teams have been very competitive.  Miami also has a ton of look-a-head spots here as they have games against the Vikings, Jets, and Patriots on deck in the next three weeks.  With all of that being said, there’s a HUGE talent discrepancy between these two teams and for some reason, the Bills have decided to run a 3-4 defence this year without the capable personnel to run it.  The Bills will keep this one tight, but ultimately, the Dolphins have too much talent and will find a way to pull it out.  Dolphins 20, Bills 16

RAIDERS @ TITANS
Both of these teams have little buzz surrounding them heading into the season.  The Titans now have a two-headed rushing attack with Chris Johnson and … Vince Young!  That could spell problems for a Raiders team that struggled to stop the run last season.  But this is a new look Raiders team.  Jason Campbell gets a second chance and he finally gets to play behind an offensive line.  Oakland is a horrible team to bet on as a favourite but one of the best to take as an underdog.  I’m really torn on this one. I think Oakland’s defence shows up and keeps it tight for a while, but in the end, the Titans are far more talented and should win this game comfortably.  Titans 24, Raiders 14

BENGALS @ PATRIOTS
As highlighted in the `Most Overrated and Underrated Teams` section (see above), I have no faith in the Patriots defence to create any stops.  Carson Palmer looked brutal to end last season, but there was a clear absence of talent around him.  The Bengals offense is much more dynamic this season with the additions of Terrell Owens, Jordan Shipley, and Jermaine Gresham.  I am getting sick and tired of hearing that the Patriots are always at their best when they are flying under the radar.  This is a team with holes on both sides of the ball, and they simply rely too heavily on their passing offense.  The Bengals are the more talented team and will pull off the upset in New England.   Bengals 31, Patriots 24

PANTHERS @ GIANTS
This is a very difficult game to call because I am high on both of these teams heading into the season. The Panthers live and die by their running game and it was working for them last time out against the Giants as Jonathan Stewart ran for 200+ yards and New York`s run defence looked atrocious.  There will be an emphasis from the Giants defence to stop the run in this game, but do they have the ponies to do it?  I’m not quite sure.  On the other side of things, Carolina has a pretty bad front seven with the exception of Jon Beason.  Eli Manning should have a ton of time in the pocket to pick out emerging receivers Hakeem Nicks and Steve Smith.  The Giants also have an extremely undervalued running back in Ahmad Bradshaw, and in the end, I think that their offense will be a little too much for the Panthers to handle.   Giants 28, Panthers 23
 
FALCONS @ STEELERS
I’m really looking for this game to be a tight low scoring affair.  With Dennis Dixon at the helm for the Steelers, they will rely heavily on one of the better running backs in the game, Rashard Mendenhall.  The only problem is that Atlanta’s run defence was outstanding to finish off last season.  For the Falcons, Matt Ryan has a ton of weapons at his disposal.  But if there’s one thing I’ve learned about this Steelers defence over the last few seasons, it’s that they apply relentless pressure to opposing quarterbacks.  Most people will simply evaluate this game by saying Matt Ryan vs. Dennis Dixon is a no-brainer.  Not me.  Pittsburgh is one of the toughest places to play in all of football, and Atlanta will show up to thinking that they already have this game in the bag.   Steelers 16, Falcons 10

BROWNS @ BUCCANEERS
The most common storyline from this year’s preseason was comeback of Jake Delhomme.  Delhomme looked great with the Browns’ first team offense and has convinced a lot of the doubters that he is back for real … Not me.  I can’t help but remember the Jake Delhomme that was plagued by fumbles and interceptions for all of last season.  The Delhomme that I know and remember is single-handedly capable of losing any game on any given day.  The Buccaneers are by no means an offensive or defensive powerhouse, but I’m expecting them to ride a healthy Cadillac Williams and some Delhomme turnovers to a home victory.  Buccaneers 20, Browns 13

COLTS @ TEXANS
This will be a great game.  I’m very high on Houston this year, but the Colts are no slouch.  This is the most important game in Texans’ franchise history.  Last year, Houston could’ve easily gone 2-0 against Indianapolis, but found a way to blow both games.  This has been the recurring theme for Houston year in and year out.  Not this year!  The Texans match up really well with the Colts.  Houston did a great job of slowing down Peyton Manning in both games last season.  Statistically, Manning threw for 562 yards and 4 TDs; however, the Texans were able to limit the Colts’ offense to 44 points combined in both of those games, which is a tough feat for any team.  Houston was unable to close out games last year because of their lack of a running game, but they will get ahead in this one and ride Arian Foster to victory.  Texans 27, Colts 19

LIONS @ BEARS
If you like turnovers, you’ll probably enjoy this one.  Matt Stafford is going to be the real deal in this league, but he’s still young and tends to force the issue on a lot of his passes.  With the addition of Julius Peppers, the Bears will have Stafford under duress for a lot of this game, and it will lead to a litter of turnovers.  On the other side of things, the Bears might have the worst offensive line in the league, which means Jay Cutler is going to see a lot of Ndamukong Suh and Kyle Vanden Bosch.  Cutler has all the tools to be a great quarterback but his decision making is questionable right now, and he will hurt his team with untimely turnovers.  I’d like to take the Lions for an outright win, especially since the Bears have the Cowboys and Packers on deck, but in the end, the Lions rarely win on the road, so I’ll side with Chicago in a tight one.  Bears 27, Lions 24

BRONCOS @ JAGUARS
I firmly believe that the Jaguars are one of the worst teams in all of football.  It may sound like a reach, but I am of the opinion that this year’s Jacksonville defence could be one of the worst defences in NFL history.  Furthermore, Jack Del Rio is a horrible head coach and on offense, David Garrard is one of the most inconsistent quarterbacks in all of football.  There’s no doubt that the loss of Elvis Dumervil is a huge one for the Broncos; however, that is no reason to write this team off completely.  I love the way that Kyle Orton played in the preseason and it looks as though he has some great chemistry with Brandon Lloyd and Jabar Gaffney.   On defence, there are certainly some weaknesses but I like that this team isn’t susceptible to the big play because of their great secondary.  Oh, and by the way, the Jaguars won’t win this game because they don’t show up for non-divisional games (4-16 ATS vs. Non-divisional opponents in the last two years).  Broncos 38, Jaguars 24

49ERS @ SEAHAWKS
The 49ers aren’t getting the respect that they deserve heading into this season.  I have not heard one person actually give this team any credit.  Everyone seems to think that they’ll win the NFC West by default rather than pointing out that they’re a damn good football team.  The Seahawks have no edge over the 49ers at any position.  San Francisco has one of the best running backs in the game in Frank Gore going up against a Seattle defence that couldn’t stop the run all of last season and has done nothing to fix the problem in the offseason.  On offense, the Seahawks’ offensive line is in complete shambles—so much so that they may have to sign a lineman off of their practice squad to start this week.  I don’t mean this as a joke when I say it, but there’s a very realistic chance that Matt Hasselbeck suffers a career-ending injury in this game.  San Fran wins this game any way they want to.  49ers 34, Seahawks 10.

PACKERS @ EAGLES
It’s very easy to buy into the Philadelphia Eagles hype … or the Kevin Kolb hype.  Kolb is definitely capable of being the quarterback of the future for Philadelphia, but he is still young and prone to turnovers.  That’s not going to fly against a legitimate Super Bowl contender in the Packers.  People often forget that the Eagles are in re-building mode.  There are still a bunch of question marks surrounding this team, including their offensive line.  Take a look at the pass rushers on this Packers defence and you can see that it’s pretty likely that Kolb is going to be harassed all afternoon long.  This game is eerily similar to Week 2 game last season, where New Orleans came to Philadelphia and steamrolled the Eagles 48-22.  Kolb showed flashes of brilliance in that game, but ultimately, his turnover put the Saints in good positions to score.  More of the same here.  Packers 37, Eagles 21
 
CARDINALS @ RAMS
My favourite player to watch in the preseason was Rams’ starting quarterback Sam Bradford.  For a rookie, Bradford looked poised in the pocket and showed glimpses of what St. Louis fans can expect for years to come.  The only issue is that Bradford went up against the Ravens’ second-team and the non-existent pass rush of the Patriots.  This game will be a completely different story.  The strength of the Cardinals defence is their defensive line, and I fully expect them to pressure Bradford all day long.  On offense, Arizona has a bunch of question marks, but I have more faith in Derek Anderson than I did Matt Leinart, and as much as I hated Leinart’s release, Anderson gives them a better chance to win right now.  On defence, the Rams are completely inept, and are capable of making Derek Anderson look like Joe Montana on Sunday.  I’m not high on the Cardinals but this appears to be a favourable matchup for them.  Cardinals 26, Rams 17

COWBOYS @ REDSKINS
BIAS ALERT … The Cowboys first team offense looked absolutely atrocious in the preseason.  Am I worried about Tony Romo, Felix Jones, Miles Austin, and the rest of the crew?  No.  Am I worried about the Cowboys offensive line and their ability to protect Romo?  Hell yes.  The Cowboys offensive line looked brutal and they go up against a Redskins defence that notched 40 sacks last season.   However, Washington switches to a 3-4 defensive scheme this year, which will definitely take some getting used to.  On offense, Washington is completely outmatched against the Cowboys defence.  Washington’s offensive line is improved but you can still expect to see a lot of Donovan McNabb on his back with Anthony Spencer and DeMarcus Ware rushing from the outside.  I’m torn on this one.  As a Cowboys fan, I know that Dallas always plays well in September, but I also know that Dallas always seems to struggle against the Redskins.  Big D prevails on a David Buehler field goal.  Cowboys 19, Redskins 16

RAVENS @ JETS
I have gone back and forth on this game at least a dozen times.  I think the Ravens are probably the better team but there is a distinct advantage for the Jets in this game.  Rex Ryan was the defensive coordinator of the Ravens in Joe Flacco’s rookie season, so there’s no doubt that he will be familiar with Flacco’s tendencies and design a game plan to exploit Flacco’s weaknesses.  However, even with that in mind, Baltimore still has a pretty solid weapon with Ray Rice in the backfield.  Ordinarily, it would seem like a no-brainer for me to take New York, especially with the electric atmosphere in their brand new stadium, but it’s just not that simple.  Mark Sanchez was atrocious in the preseason and furthermore, I normally don’t want to back the team with the most hype surrounding them heading into the season.  This game is coming down to the wire.  Expectations are high in New York which creates a lot of added pressure, but I believe in Rex Ryan as a head coach, and I think the Jets will get it done.  Jets 17, Ravens 16
 
CHARGERS @ CHIEFS
I’m not drinking the Chiefs’ Kool-Aid.  If there’s one thing I’ve learned about the Chargers in the past, it’s that their offense is lights out if Philip Rivers isn’t under pressure.  Kansas City has one of the worst pass rushes in the league.  Do you get where I’m going with this one?  Rivers will sit back in the pocket and pick apart this Kansas City defence all night long.  Look back to one season ago and you’ll see that San Diego put up 80 points in their two games against the Chiefs.  Things will be no different this time around. There’s no doubt that the Chargers have some issues on defence, but can Kansas City keep up in a shootout?  I don’t think so.  Chargers 35, Chiefs 21
 
SURVIVOR PICK
I’d like to point out that this one of the most difficult weeks I can remember to make a survivor pick.
My general rules of thumb for making survivor picks are:
a) No division games
b) No road teams
c) No underdogs
All of the teams that I would consider this week are the Giants, Dolphins, Bears, Titans, Packers, 49ers, Cardinals, and Chargers
Rule (a) eliminates Miami, Chicago, San Francisco, Arizona, and San Diego
Rule (b) eliminates Green Bay
Rule (c) doesn’t eliminate anyone
This leaves me with the Giants at home to the Panthers or the Titans at home to the Raiders.  Both picks should be safe but I have both games being decided by 5 points or less.
In the end, I’m going with the Tennessee Titans.  Vince Young is 26-12 as a starter, and I have no faith in Oakland to pull out a road game.  Yes, Oakland usually fares better in the underdog role; however, the Titans are a much more complete team and should be able to pull this one out.
What scared me out of the Giants?  Firstly, Carolina beat down New York 41-9 just one season ago.  Secondly, Carolina has always performed great in the underdog role as well.  And finally, there’s a lot of pressure on New York as they’re opening up their new stadium.
 
AGAINST THE SPREAD-SHEET
Week in and week out, you will get a look at my spreadsheet which shows my confidence in each selection.   The ‘Strength of Pick’ column indicates how confident I am in my selection with 1 being the most confident and 15 being the least confident.  The ‘Initial Reaction’ column indicates my confidence when the game lines were first released.  The ‘Mid Week’ column indicates my confidence on Wednesday.  The ‘Final Selection’ column indicates my final picks against the spread.

BIGGEST RISERS
San Diego – How will the Chiefs be able to apply any sort of pressure to Philip Rivers?
Carolina – Greg Sansone made a great case for the Panthers on ‘Score on the NFL’
Tennessee – Switched my pick from Oakland here.  Titans are much more talented.

BIGGEST FALLERS
Miami – Somehow they find a way to lose in Buffalo year in and year out.
Green Bay – 90% of public money has come in on the Packers in this game … Scary.
Tampa Bay – I have no idea why I had so much faith in the Bucs in the first place.

FINAL SELECTIONS
It’s one thing to show you a table indicating who I like in each game, but it’s another thing to actually show you where I’m throwing my money down.
I rate my plays on a scale of 3* to 6* with a 6* play qualifying as my top play.  I would estimate that 1 out of every 25 plays earns a 6* distinction, with approximately 50% of my plays earning a 3* distinction.

4* Denver Broncos +2.5
3* Houston Texans +2
3* San Francisco 49ers -3
3* Pittsburgh Steelers +2.5