GLS Picks: Week 2

We're about to tell you the Bills will move to 2-0. Plan the parade.

Back after a mediocre Week 1 for what is sure to be another mediocre Week 2. If you’re looking for a second opinion, listen to Cam Stewart’s Week 2 podcast for picks from Mr. Stewart, as well as the great Geoff Fienberg and the super-duper Eric Cohen. If that’s too much for you, just pick one or the other. But click on the above link anyway, because we make money every time you do so.

UPDATE: Here’s the podcast. You’d have to be pretty lazy not to hit the play button. So yeah, do it.

2011 season: 10-6 (7-8-1 against the spread)
2010 season: 155-101 (117-119-20 against the spread)
2009 season: 175-81 (122-101-33 against the spread)
2008 season: 161-94-1 (114-112-30 against the spread)
2007 season: 174-82 (118-105-33 against the spread)

HIGH CONFIDENCE

Captain obvious: Pittsburgh over Seattle. The Seahawks have lost seven straight games in the Eastern time zone and the Steelers are probably pissed off after a disgusting season-opening loss to the Ravens. They’ll feast on a crappy offensive line, completely smother a bad running game and have a field day against a weak secondary. Regardless of what happened in Week 1, this is one of the league’s worst teams travelling across the country to play one of the league’s best teams. Steelers 34, Seahawks 7

I don’t think Rex Grossman is worthy of a starting job. But considering what Cam Newton was able to do against the Arizona defense on the road in his first career start, I think Grossman has a big day at home against an inexperienced Arizona team travelling cross-country. Washington’s defense will continue its coming out party against a bad offensive line. Cake walk. Redskins 30, Cardinals 10

The Chiefs are young and facing serious adversity. That’s dangerous. Making matters worse, I don’t trust Todd Haley to have his guys motivated in light of what’s gone on in recent weeks. Even when they sucked, the Lions were decent at home. And even when they were good, the Chiefs struggled on the road. Jamaal Charles is always a big factor, but if the Bills kept him contained I think the Lions, who smothered LeGarrette Blount in limited opportunities in Week 1, can do the same. And did you see what Ryan Fitzpatrick did to the Kansas City secondary last week? Give me Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson and take away Eric Berry and it spells b-l-o-w-o-u-t. Lions 37, Chiefs 13

Cam Newton’s luck runs out. I suppose it ran out when the Panthers ultimately fell to the Cardinals last week, but that was the epitome of a moral victory for Carolina in Newton’s much-anticipated debut. Now, the rookie has to face a defense that has forced 23 turnovers in its last seven games. I don’t necessarily think this’ll be a blowout, because Green Bay was mediocre on the road last year and the Panthers won their only two games at home. But Green Bay is more rested, healthier and obviously has a significant advantage in every phase of the game. Packers 23, Panthers 13

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE

Luke McCown is actually going to have to work in New York. The Titans were beat by Maurice Jones-Drew on the ground, making things easy on McCown. But McCown will have to beat the Jets with a lack of weapons in the passing game. Mark Sanchez will have room to work against Jacksonville’s terrible pass rush, which will ultimately be the difference at the Meadowlands. Jets 24, Jaguars 13

The Baltimore defense is in a groove. And I don’t think that the presence of Chris Johnson will be enough to throw them off, regardless of how much work CJ2K gets after being limited in Week 1. Baltimore is actually quite a similar team to Jacksonville, except that they’re better all over and can actually rush the quarterback. Ravens 24, Titans 14

I refuse to believe the Browns are favored over Indy. Even without Peyton Manning, the Colts are a more talented team. Both offenses are transitioning (Cleveland to the west coast system; Indy to life without No. 18). But Indy still has Reggie Wayne and a solid group of receivers, and they’ll be facing a flawed defense adjusting to the 3-4. Kerry Collins should be better with another week of practice under his belt and the Indy defense should force Cleveland to beat it with only Peyton Willis at Lucas Oil. There’s no reason Hillis won’t find some holes, but that won’t be enough. Colts 17, Browns 10

Raheem Morris needed a wake-up call. Clearly, there’s something wrong with Josh Freeman right now. And while I’m sure a matchup with the Vikings will help, Morris has to realize that his team made a mistake in giving up on LeGarrette Blount early in their Week 1 loss to the Lions. With Kevin Williams still out, the Bucs should let Blount run the show in Minnesota. Tampa is better than what we saw against Detroit, and they’re a very strong road team (6-2 last year). They’ll win a close one against useless Donovan McNabb and the bad Vikes. Buccaneers 20, Vikings 17

The unbeatable Bills. The Raiders are travelling across the country on a short week against a team that they don’t match up well with. Kyle Williams and Marcell Dareus will keep Darren McFadden in check while the Bills’ offense keeps it rolling against a beatable pass defense. Bills 24, Raiders 17

The Eagles are being overhyped; the Falcons are being underhyped. This is what happens when we knee-jerk react to Week 1 results. Philly beat a solid, but not spectacular St. Louis team that was using Cadillac Williams much of the day. Atlanta lost a tough road opener in Chicago. But now the Falcons are home, where Matt Ryan has lost only two regular-season games in his three-year career. Watch for Michael Vick to try to do too much in his return and watch for Michael Turner to have a big day against a weak Philly run D. Falcons 27, Eagles 20

LOW CONFIDENCE

I don’t mean to overreact to the Bears’ Week 1 performance. But that was an impressive season-opening victory against Atlanta. Although I don’t believe Drew Brees will allow himself to become as flustered as Matt Ryan was by the Chicago pass rush, I expect Brian Urlacher to have a big game in an emotional situation and I do think not having Marques Colston (and maybe Lance Moore) will hurt New Orleans. It should also be noted that the Bears were better on the road than the Saints were at home in 2010. Bears 24, Saints 21

The Bengals are about to be 2-0. Yet another sign of the apocalypse, but it’s right time, right place for Cincinnati, who drew the in-transition Browns in Week 1 and now get to play host to the banged-up Broncos in Week 2. Cincinnati can run it, and Cedric Benson should pull a Darren McFadden against that weak Denver front seven. Making matters worse, the Broncos could be without Elvis Dumvervil and Champ Bailey, which would make things wayyyy easier on Andy Dalton and/or Bruce Gradkowski. Bengals 17, Broncos 14

On paper, the Cowboys should crush the 49ers. But then you consider that Dez Bryant isn’t healthy, and that Dallas is travelling across the country after an emotional prime-time game, and that Alex Smith, who has eight touchdowns and just one pick in his last six games, will face a depleted Dallas secondary with Terence Newman and Orlando Scandrick hurt and Mike Jenkins less than 100 percent. Frank Gore should also bounce back with a respectable showing against a beatable run defense as Jim Harbaugh’s guys pull off the upset to move to 2-0. 49ers 23, Cowboys 20

Points points points! Lots of them coming in Foxboro, where Philip Rivers will have a chance to carve up a defense that Chad Henne somehow made look dumb on Monday night. But the Pats are even hotter, and they’re at home, where they just don’t lose (seriously, they haven’t done so since 2008). Still, San Diego had the league’s top-ranked defense last year and they made Minnesota look silly in Week 1. They’ll keep it close in the game of the week. Patriots 30, Chargers 28

CLUELESS

If Miami couldn’t stop Tom Brady and Co., why does anyone think they’ll stop Matt Schaub, Arian Foster and Andre Johnson? Of course, it’s never that simple. Vontae Davis and Sean Smith are better than that and the Phins have presumably made adjustments based on what went wrong against New England. The new-look Texans defense got to feast on a messy Indy offense in Week 1, but Chad Henne, Reggie Bush and Brandon Marshall will make things harder for a unit transitioning to the 3-4. And keep in mind that Miami was 6-2 on the road last year. This looks like a trap game for Houston. Dolphins 21, Texans 20

Stay stay the hell away from Giants-Rams. Monday night in Jersey: no two teams have been hit harder by injuries than the G-men and St. Louis. The problem for the Rams, who were 2-6 on the road last year, is that some of their key players were recently hurt (Sam Bradford, Steven Jackson, Danny Amendola, Ron Bartell) while the Giants have at least had time to adjust following a rash of injuries prior to the regular season. This is a guessing game, but it’s safe to take the more talented team, especially at home. Giants 23, Rams 16

Comments (4)

  1. great pod cast boys please keep up the great work. Still missing score picks but thanks for the hard work even without the score radio

  2. mia is playing at home not away…..and where is pizzolas picks???

  3. Agree with most predictions, apart from the Bears over the Saints and Dolphins over Texans.

  4. Gagnon, don’t you know Andy Reid owns the Falcons? & as much as I like the Bills, the Raiders are a mean bunch, like the Lyle Azaldo days, these guys will pound the Bills, KC was not the test for the run D, Oak will.

    Bears don’t play well on turf.

    & whatever happened to Bearcat?

    There should be a more indepth show on the NFL other than just picking Gold, Silver, & Bronze. Have a 1/2 hr show on Friday to preview the games & one on Monday to anyalyse how Sunday went.

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