Aliveeeeee. Barely, though. The Chargers always make things more difficult than they should be, which is why we’re almost happy to be done with them. Here’s what we’ve done to survive three weeks in:

Week 1: Cardinals over Panthers
Week 2: Steelers over Seahawks
Week 3: Chargers over Chiefs

Back at it. Here are the week’s biggest favorites:

  • Packers over Broncos: Green Bay is a 12.5-point fave at home.
  • Buccaneers over Colts: Tampa Bay is a 10-point fave at home.
  • Eagles over 49ers: Philadelphia is a 9-point fave at home.

And here’s a look at who plays the league’s worst teams (based on our latest power rankings):

  • Bills over No. 32 Bengals: Buffalo is only a 3-point fave on the road.
  • No. 30 Chiefs over No. 31 Vikings: Obviously untouchable.
  • Falcons over No. 29 Seahawks: Seattle at home is dangerous.

As I’ve said, I prefer making selections from the second list, but none are very appealing this week. If you’re going to burn Atlanta, this isn’t the week to do so. Don’t trust them entirely when they’re travelling across the country to play a team that is dangerous at home.

Also consider that the Broncos, who are the biggest underdog of the week, are ranked fairly low in the power rankings as well (28th). So the natural lock of the week is probably Green Bay at home. I’m shying away from the Bucs, who are young and inconsistent, against a Colts team that is experienced in prime time and showed signs of life last week against Pittsburgh. The Eagles shouldn’t have much trouble with a bad Niners team playing its second straight cross-country road game.

So it’s either Green Bay or Philly.

Since I’m fairly confident that both of those teams will win and want to be careful before burning either, this is one of those times where it’d be smart to look ahead to the next few weeks to see which team would be safer to use right now.

Packers: I won’t use them next week in Atlanta, Week 7 in Minnesota or Week 9 in San Diego, and they’re off in Week 8. Will I need them in Week 6 against St. Louis?

Eagles: I won’t use them in Buffalo or Washington, they’re off in Week 7 and it’s not likely I use them at home against Dallas and Chicago after the bye. I might not have to count on them until Week 10 (at home against Arizona).

In Week 5, I can use the Giants (vs. Seattle) or the Saints (in Carolina).

In Week 6, I can use the Falcons (vs. Carolina) or the Lions (vs. the 49ers, who are apparently spending the entire season in the Eastern time zone). (Rams-Packers is a possibility if I don’t use Green Bay this week.)

In Week 7, I can use the Raiders (vs. Kansas City) or the Saints (vs. Indy), assuming I didn’t use them in Week 5.

In Week 8, I can use the Ravens (vs. Arizona) or the Saints (in St. Louis), if for some reason I still┬áhaven’t burned them.

In Week 9, I can take the Texans (vs. Cleveland) or the Cowboys (vs. Seattle).

In Week 10 — a week in which many survivor pools are won — I see signs of trouble, with Philly (vs. Arizona) and Pittsburgh (in Cincinnati) likely to be heavy favorites. I’ve already used the Steelers, so I should really attempt to hang on to the Eagles if I can.

I might not need the Packers again. There’s a good chance I will┬áneed the Eagles. Both should win easily this week, so I’m taking the Super Bowl champions.

And that’s Overthinking 101.

This week’s pick: Green Bay over Denver.

Comments (1)

  1. I liked the analysis but thinking of using TB over IND. I dont think IND plays well outside and TB can run the ball, if they decide to use their RB and Freeman at home, including their defense, usually shows up to play.

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