We keep hearing about all of the records that are in jeopardy of falling as passing numbers climb all over the league. It seems as though every offensive record is about to get shattered, but it’s only Week 5. With 25 percent of the games played (making the math especially easy to do), let’s take a step back and look at the players on pace to break some notable single-season records…

Record: Passing yards
Record holder: Dan Marino (5,084 in 1984)

On pace to break it:

1. Tom Brady (6,212)
Odds he breaks it: 2/1
Brady has to average 295 yards per game between now and the end of the season, which is something he’s only done once in his career (300 in 2007). But that offense is rolling — only a big division lead might get in his way.

2. Drew Brees (5,640)
Odds he breaks it: 5/2
Brees came 15 yards short of the record in 2008. He’s in the running every year.

3.  Cam Newton (5,544)
Odds he breaks it: 20/1
You’d think that defenses would begin to prepare better for the rookie as the season wears on. There’s no way he maintains this pace with Atlanta (twice), Washington, Tennessee and Tampa (twice) on the schedule.

4. Aaron Rodgers (5,300)
Odds he breaks it: 3/1
The offense only seems to be getting better. A healthy Jermichael Finley could give Rodgers a chance. And if Detroit keeps the NFC North close, he won’t have a chance to rest late in the season.

5. Philip Rivers (5,144)
Odds he breaks it: 10/1
Rivers led the league with 4,710 yards last season. With Vincent Jackson in the lineup, he’s piling up yardage. But to break the record, he’ll probably need Antonio Gates to return soon.

6. Tony Romo (5,092)
Odds he breaks it: 5/1
Romo had nearly 4,500 yards in 2009 and was on pace to have another monster yardage season before getting hurt in 2010. If Miles Austin and Dez Bryant return to the lineup soon and the defense continues to struggle, he’ll have a decent chance.

Record: Passing touchdowns
Record holder: Tom Brady (50 in 2007)

On pace to break it:

1. Tom Brady (52)
Odds he breaks it: 2/1
It’s a toss-up, but he already holds the damn record.

Record: Passer rating
Record holder: Peyton Manning (121.1 in 2004)

On pace to break it:

1. Aaron Rodgers (124.6)
Odds he breaks it: 20/1
It’s very unlikely that Rodgers maintains a rating in the 120s. His career high is 103.2 and even Brady was never able to hit the 120 mark in his two best seasons (2007 and 2010). Manning’s ’04 season was just off the charts.

Record: Receptions
Record holder: Marvin Harrison (143 in 2002)

On pace to break it:

1. Wes Welker (160)
Odds he breaks it: 5/2
The last time Welker was completely healthy, he caught 123 passes in just 14 games in 2009. Had he played the entire season, he would’ve caught 140 passes … and that was with Randy Moss hogging passes. He’ll need 8.6 catches per game over the final 12 games to break the record. If he stays healthy, it’ll be very close.

Record: Receiving yards
Record holder: Jerry Rice (1,848 in 1995)

On pace to break it:

1. Wes Welker (2,464)
Odds he breaks it: 3/1
Welker’s yardage number is inflated by a 99-yard touchdown catch. But even if you take that away, he’s still easily on pace to break Rice’s record.

2. Steve Smith, Panthers (2,120)
Odss he breaks it: 15/1
Smith’s numbers will likely fade as Newton comes back to earth, but watch out for Mike Wallace, who is on pace to register 1,816 yards.

Record: Receiving touchdowns 
Record holder: Randy Moss (23 in 2007)

On pace to break it:

1. Calvin Johnson (32)
Odds he breaks it: 1/2
He needs 16 touchdown catches in his last 12 games, which I believe will happen if he and Matthew Stafford stay on the field.

Record: Sacks
Record holder: Michael Strahan (22.5 in 2001)

On pace to break it:

1. Jason Babin (28)
Odds he breaks it: 20/1
This record is in peril every year, but I don’t think Babin has the ability to consistently register enough sacks to break it.

2. Jared Allen (26)
Odds he breaks it: 10/1
It’ll either be Allen or Ware, who is on pace to record 20 sacks.

Record: Field goals
Record holder: Neil Rackers (40)

On pace to break it:

1. Dan Bailey (48)
Odds he breaks it: 5/1
The 23-year-old rookie is 12-for-13. But I think the return of Austin and the continued improvement of Bryant will make it hard for him to get enough opportunities over the final 12 games.

On pace to tie it:

T-2. Jason Hanson (40)
Odds he breaks it: 4/1
Hanson, Nugent and Rackers are all 10-for-10. Hanson is getting more opportunities from up close, which is promising. But can the Lions’ offense maintain this pace?

T-2. Mike Nugent (40)
Odds he breaks it: 8/1
Nugent has been lights-out, but the young Bengals only figure to get better offensively and in the red zone as the season wears on.

T-2. Neil Rackers (40)
Odds he breaks it: 3/1
It would be cool if he broke his own record in a new city, but the Texans should also improve in the red zone with Arian Foster back. (Although he could see his opportunities increase with Andre Johnson out.)

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