Not swimming with the fishes yet, thanks to the Super Bowl champions. And there was never much of a doubt in Week 4. Here’s how we’ve stayed alive thus far:
Week 1: Cardinals over Panthers
Week 2: Steelers over Seahawks
Week 3: Chargers over Chiefs
Week 4: Packers over Broncos
So here are the top favorites in Week 5:
- Giants over Seahawks: New York is a 9.5-point fave at home.
- Patriots over Jets: New England is a 9-point fave at home.
- Lions over Bears: Detroit is a 6-point fave at home.
- Texans over Raiders: Houston is a 6-point fave at home.
- Saints over Panthers: New Orleans is a 6-point fave in Carolina.
Not a lot of big spreads this week, which is scary. But it also means there’s a chance your entire pool will go with the Giants. It’s also very unlikely that anyone has used the G-men thus far (although it’s possible some peeps took them in Arizona last week).
One rule I haven’t really touched on yet this year: I stay the hell away from divisional games if at all possible. The teams know each other too well and anything can happen (anything can always happen, but that mantra carries more weight when applied to division games). Three of the games above are between teams in the same division. The Pats lost to the Jets at home in January, the Saints barely beat Carolina at home early last year and I don’t think anyone’s crazy enough to take the Lions, who lost both of their games with the Bears last season.
And I’m not touching Houston against Oakland, especially with Andre Johnson likely out for the Texans. So that leaves the Giants.
Here’s a look at who plays the league’s worst teams in Week 5 (based on our latest power rankings):
- Cardinals over No. 31 Vikings: Minnesota is actually favored by 2.5 points at home.
- Colts over No. 30 Chiefs: Obviously we’re not taking a winless team.
- Chargers over No. 29 Broncos: Another divisional game, and we’ve used the Bolts.
- Bengals over No. 28 Jaguars: Jacksonville is favored by 2.5 points at home.
* The 32nd-ranked Rams are off; same with 27th-ranked Cleveland.
So as you can see, the pick this week is extremely obvious. As we predicted a week ago, we’re going with the Giants and saving the Saints.
This week’s pick: New York Giants over Seattle Seahawks.