GLS Picks: Week 7

Two winning weeks in a row. I love my gut.

Here are Cam Stewart and Co.’s picks in their Week 7 preview.

Here’s my track record…

Last week: 8-5 (7-5-1 against the spread)
2011 season: 55-35 (42-43-5 against the spread)
2010 season: 155-101 (117-119-20 against the spread)
2009 season: 175-81 (122-101-33 against the spread)
2008 season: 161-94-1 (114-112-30 against the spread)
2007 season: 174-82 (118-105-33 against the spread)

And here are my Week 7 picks…

HIGH CONFIDENCE 

The Rams have scored 49 points all season. And now they might be without their franchise quarterback in Dallas, where the Cowboys are picking up steam and getting healthier. Green Bay easily took care of that horrendous secondary last week; the Cowboys should do the same this time. Cowboys 35, Rams 10

Will Christian Ponder survive against Green Bay? Like, will he still be breathing when the game is over? That’s a moral victory for Ponder and the Vikings, who are inexplicably only a 9.5-point favorite against the aggressive Packers. At home, the Vikes will lean heavily on Adrian Peterson, but he’ll be up against the league’s fourth-ranked run defense, and Green Bay should be able to stack the box. This has blowout written all over it. Packers 38, Vikings 13

Blaine Gabbert should also be scared for his life. Baltimore’s defense is playing lights-out right now and the Jags have been giving up quite a few sacks. Baltimore’s defense is in much better shape than Pittsburgh or New Orleans, and both of those teams made things difficult enough on Gabbert. And Maurice Jones-Drew can’t bail the Jags out against a run defense that has surrendered just 3.3 yards per carry thus far. Ravens 24, Jaguars 7

The Colts are due. But the timing is all off. In New Orleans in prime time, they’ve got no shot. That said, Indy has hung with some good teams this year and they’ve become better with Curtis Painter leading the offense, so I’m not sure the Saints, who might be a little off due to the routine-busting injury suffered by Sean Payton, will be able to cover a two-touchdown spread. Saints 27, Colts 17

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE

Seahawks: road warriors. Somehow, someway. Seattle’s stellar run defense will shut down a Peyton Hillis-liss Cleveland running game and force Colt McCoy to beat them. At the same time, I expect the ‘Hawks to get a bit of a boost with Charlie Whitehurst probably starting at quarterback against a Cleveland defense that might again be without Joe Haden. Seattle proved that it can win cross-country games two weeks ago in New York, and now they’re a little fresher coming off the bye. Seahawks 24, Browns 13

The Broncos might be feeling rejuvenated after a bye and with a new quarterback in place. And the Dolphins might have the opposite feeling. Matt Moore was dreadful in Miami’s Monday night loss to the Jets, and now the Phins return home on short rest. Home, where they haven’t won since 2009. Broncos 20, Dolphins 17

The Texans once again run into a team coming off a bye. And I figure the young Titans will only get better with more practice time with their new coaching staff. If Chris Johnson is going to break out, it might be this week against a run defense that has surrendered 4.8 yards per carry and is without Mario Williams in the front seven. Houston’s still spiraling from the injuries suffered by Williams and Andre Johnson, while the rested Titans have had time to adjust to life without Kenny Britt. At home, Tennessee prevails. Titans 20, Texans 17

Best game of a terrible week: Chargers at Jets. New York is struggling, but the Jets should put up a fight at home against a Chargers team travelling cross country for what feels like a 10 a.m. start. San Diego has had two weeks to prepare, Vincent Jackson appears to be healthy and Antonio Gates might even make an appearance. Plus, the Chargers are picking up steam on the ground, and with Darrelle Revis hot and the Jets’ front seven struggling, Ryan Mathews might be in the right place at the right time. Chargers 24, Jets 17

Pittsburgh almost blew it against Jacksonville. And now they have to face a feisty Arizona team (coming off a bye) on the road. The Steelers are still dealing with a slew of injuries and go up against a coaching staff that knows them well. Despite what I expect to be a big day for Beanie Wells, Ben Roethlisberger will find a way against a bad secondary and Pittsburgh will barely survive…again. Steelers 24, Cardinals 23

LOW CONFIDENCE

A lot of people think this is the week Cam Newton and the Panthers finally slay a superior team. They’ve come close on multiple occasions, but now they host a Redskins team coming off a tough loss. I love this Carolina team, but I don’t think it’s gonna happen. Washington is much better than what the score showed against Philadelphia, and they’ll get Brian Orakpo and Ryan Kerrigan going against Newton, who has struggled a little bit as of late. Carolina will keep it close against a Washington offensive line that is in shambles, but the Panthers don’t have the defensive playmakers to change the game. Redskins 20, Panthers 16

Michael Turner is heating up, while the Lions’ running game doesn’t exist. So while Atlanta should be able to move the ball in Detroit, the Lions will once again be forced to rely on the Matthew Stafford-Calvin Johnson connection to win. I think Atlanta’s defense can control Johnson with Brent Grimes and support, and I’m not sure Detroit will slow down Turner. Falcons 23, Lions 20

Will Carson Palmer play? The Raiders should beat Kansas City regardless. Palmer’s presence would be a boost, but Oakland’s defense should be the difference at home against a Chiefs team that ranks 29th through the air. Kansas City is well-rested and has some momentum, so if Jackie Battle can keep it going and they can continue to play decent run defense against the powerful Darren McFadden, it’ll be a close game. That said, I’m still taking the home team. Raiders 17, Chiefs 14

CLUELESS

The problem with Chicago and Tampa is you’re never sure what you’re going to get from either. And you can’t simply part with the home side because the game’s being played at a neutral site in London. Ultimately, I think the Bucs are a more talented team, even without LeGarrette Blount. And Tampa has experience travelling across the pond for these games, which could come in handy. I also think they turned a corner last week against New Orleans. They’ll keep it going in a close game against an inconsistent Chicago team. Buccaneers 23, Bears 20