GLS Picks: Week 8

GLS has the Eagles coming through with their second straight win Sunday night.

How do you go 6-7 straight up? After one of my worst weeks ever, the odds have to be on my side in Week 8, right?

Right?

Okay, I wouldn’t blame you if you went straight to the picks in the Red Heat podcast.

Me so far…

Last week: 6-7 (4-8-1 against the spread)
2011 season: 61-42 (46-51-6 against the spread)
2010 season: 155-101 (117-119-20 against the spread)
2009 season: 175-81 (122-101-33 against the spread)
2008 season: 161-94-1 (114-112-30 against the spread)
2007 season: 174-82 (118-105-33 against the spread)

And my attempt to save my reputation…

HIGH CONFIDENCE

The Giants are healthy, rested and back at home for the horrible Dolphins. People will be tempted to take Miami to keep it close because the Dolphins are worse at home than on the road, because the Giants lost to the Seahawks at home three weeks ago and because teams coming off of byes have struggled both straight up and against the spread this year. That said, the Seattle game was an anomaly for New York, the Dolphins suck this year regardless of where they’re playing, and Tom Coughlin is a coach who will have his team ready to roll after the bye. I don’t think New York is very good, but it’ll roll Sunday. Giants 27, Dolphins 13

The hottest offense in the league faces the coldest offense in the league. Plus, St. Louis can’t stop anyone and the Saints have been improving defensively. No Sam Bradford for the Rams, either. Enough said. Saints 38, Rams 13 

Expect the Colts to bounce back. Whoa, calm down. I didn’t say they’d win, but against a Titans team that has been badly outplayed in back-to-back affairs, Indy will keep it close. They’re familiar with this Tennessee team and they’ll learn from their Week 7 mistakes. I don’t expect Joseph Addai to play, but Delone Carter could have a breakout game against a run defense that has been getting smashed. This is a one-score game. Titans 20, Colts 17

Watch the knee-jerk reactions. I wonder if a lot of people are betting Arizona this week after Baltimore laid an egg Monday night in Jacksonville, especially considering the Ravens are on short rest. But the Cardinals are terrible, especially in the Eastern time zone. If not for a close victory in Week 1 against the Panthers in Cam Newton’s debut, Arizona would be winless. And the Ravens are famous for laying eggs like that and then bouncing back. They’re pissed off, and they’ll take out their anger on a very bad Cardinals team. Ravens 31, Cardinals 10

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE

Something tells me the bye week will help Jim Harbaugh’s 49ers. But maybe that’s just because everything Harbaugh touches — besides Jim Schwartz — turns to gold. With victories over winless Indy, winless Miami and Seattle at home (um, 6-3), Cleveland is actually quite a horrendous 3-3 team. Now, the tired and banged-up Browns are travelling cross country for the second time in three weeks, and going up against a rested and confident Niners team that should make Colt McCoy’s day very, very long. 49ers 24, Browns 3

It’s no secret that Tom Brady and the Patriots have had Pittsburgh’s number in recent seasons. Now, you’ve got New England with two weeks to prepare for a banged-up Steelers team that didn’t exactly cruise past Jacksonville and Arizona the last two weeks. The Pats are healthier, fresher and simply better. At home, Ben Roethlisberger will find holes in the New England defense to keep it close, but Pittsburgh is yet to beat a team with a winning record. Patriots 27, Steelers 23

The Texans are laying too many points. Houston will once again be without Andre Johnson against a Jacksonville team that has to be feeling good after that win over Baltimore. But now the Jaguars go on the road, where they were crushed by the Texans in the season finale last year. That said, Houston might not have the firepower to blow out a Jacksonville defense that might be better than they’re given credit for. Plus, Maurice Jones-Drew should get it going against a weak run defense. This is a one-score game, and it wouldn’t surprise me to see the Jags pull off the upset. Texans 24, Jaguars 21

Did the bye week help or hurt Cincinnati? The fact that we’re having to ask the question isn’t a good thing. Historically, it has hurt them. The Bengals have just one win coming off the bye since 2003, and Seattle is a very tough place to play. The strong Seahawks run defense will completely take away a running game missing Cedric Benson (suspension), forcing Andy Dalton to win his first-ever non-Eastern time zone game. I don’t think that’s going to happen. Seahawks 17, Bengals 16

LOW CONFIDENCE

The Bills are laying 5.5 points for what is pretty much a neutral-site game against Washington. That just doesn’t seem right. Sure, the Redskins are without three important offensive players in Chris Cooley, Tim Hightower and Santana Moss, but Buffalo is again without stout run stopper Kyle Williams, and who knows how this team will react to the bye. I think a stellar Washington pass rush gets past a banged-up Buffalo offensive line, and I don’t think Buffalo’s nonexistent pass rush does much to limit John Beck and Roy Helu, who might provide enough offense for the ‘Skins to pull off the upset. Redskins 24, Bills 20

Back to my gut. The Eagles are really good coming off of byes in the Andy Reid era, but they don’t match up well with a lethal Dallas offense that ran for nearly 300 yards last week. That said, Philly gets Trent Cole back to pressure Tony Romo and Jason Peters back to protect Michael Vick. You can probably tell that I’ve been waffling on this one, but Philly took some positive steps forward before the bye, and two weeks off should give them the edge at home Sunday night. My gut tells me the Eagles rise to the prime-time occasion, as they’re known for doing. Eagles 30, Cowboys 27

How valuable is momentum? Because in the Detroit-Denver matchup, the Broncos have a serious edge in the momentum category. The Lions are dangerously one-dimensional and they’ve fallen behind early in all three of their road games thus far. It’s also been more than a calendar year since the Broncos have been beaten by more than a score at home. Watch for Champ Bailey to hold Calvin Johnson in check (with some help) and for the Tim Tebow legend to grow against a so-so defense that might not be prepared to handle what he and Knowshon Moreno give them. Broncos 23, Lions 20

The Chiefs nearly beat the Chargers in San Diego in Week 3. Since then, Kansas City hasn’t lost, while the Bolts have stumbled a bit, with Philip Rivers struggling (and maybe hurt). Now, the Chiefs get to host the Chargers in prime time, with a chance to keep rolling against a team that is dealing with a few big injuries (Kris Dielman, Mike Tolbert, Vincent Jackson, and Antonio Gates isn’t 100 percent yet). I can see San Diego making its typical mistakes, with the Chiefs in the right place at the right time. Chiefs 28, Chargers 27

CLUELESS

On one hand, Adrian Peterson should have a field day against a weak Carolina run defense. But on the other hand, Cam Newton and Steve Smith should have a field day against a weak Minnesota secondary. But it’s a passing league, and I’m going with the team that has the edge through the air, especially at home. Plus, in a battle of rookie quarterbacks, you know what you’re going to get at this point from Newton. Christian Ponder? Not so much. Still, this has field goal game written all over it. Panthers 27, Vikings 24

Comments (5)

  1. It will be interesting to see the effect of the bye week. All the teams coming off it this week are considered good, or at the very least have winning records.

    • Should be one of the more interesting things to watch this week. Will the bye become a bad thing in 2011 and beyond? And if it does kill teams this year, will the league consider tweaking the rules?

      • I forgot to ask you about that last week. If all sides agree that rules to the CBA need tweaking (such as bye week rules), can they do something before the next labour agreement? I would assume so, but wonder what would stand in the way.

  2. The score nfl crew has really fallen off. Your ats picks are horrible. Im better off letting my dog pick next week

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