GLS Picks: Week 11

GLS has the Bears beating the Chargers for their fifth win in a row.

I hope you didn’t bail too fast, because we’ve been making money for two weeks running here at GLS. And with a Denver cover last night, we’re now only two games below the .500 mark against the spread. The blind squirrel is finding nuts.

For squirrels with slightly better vision, take the advice of Cam Stewart and Co. in the Week 11 Red Heat podcast.

My record thus far…

Last week: 9-7 (8-6-2 against the spread)
2011 season: 87-59 (66-69-11 against the spread)
2010 season: 155-101 (117-119-20 against the spread)
2009 season: 175-81 (122-101-33 against the spread)
2008 season: 161-94-1 (114-112-30 against the spread)
2007 season: 174-82 (118-105-33 against the spread)

And take 11…

HIGH CONFIDENCE

Have the Bucs given up? They just aren’t right, and they’re coming off a pummeling at home. Next? The league’s best team at Lambeau. Despite its success last season and a fast start to this one, Tampa Bay has actually been one of the worst teams in the league since the beginning of October. This has to be a blowout. Packers 38, Buccaneers 14

Buying into recent trends in Miami. The Dolphins are suddenly getting to the quarterback, and the Bills are suddenly a disaster with a depleted offensive line and a struggling signal caller. They’ve been blown out in back-to-back games and now have to meet a sneakily talented Miami team riding a two-game winning streak. Market correction has taken place in recent weeks, and the Dolphins, who are at home, are the better team. Dolphins 24, Bills 14

I still love the Washington pass rush. But this is another one of those cases in which I say something good about a team before explaining why they’re going to lose. Because I love Washington’s pass rush, but the Cowboys have surrendered just 15 sacks this season and there’s no indication that the Redskins will be the team to finally slow down DeMarco Murray. Dallas is starting to put things together, while Washington has been just as bad at home as they’ve been on the road. Cowboys 34, Redskins 13

This is the epitome of a bad matchup: In San Francisco, one of the league’s worst rush offenses goes up against the league’s best run defense. The 49ers will force John Skelton to make big-time throws to keep this game close, and that’s probably not going to happen. Last time the Niners hosted the Cardinals, on Jan. 2 of this year, they won 38-7. Since then, I’d argue that San Fran has become a lot better, while the Cards have taken a step backwards. For those who think this will be a trap game for the Niners, you don’t know Jim Harbaugh. 49ers 23, Cardinals 13

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE

How do you score just 13 points in back-to-back home games against against Miami and Denver? And now the Chiefs have to travel to Foxboro with Tyler Palko as their quarterback. This has disaster written all over it. With Kansas City probably forced to go conservative, New England’s solid front seven — led by a healthy Jerod Mayo — should dominate. And on offense, Tom Brady should have a field day against a pass defense that has given up 8.0 yards per attempt this season. Patriots 30, Chiefs 10

Will the Eagles still fight? They’re likely done regardless, and they’re in big trouble with Michael Vick and Jeremy Maclin likely out. If Vince Young has to play quarterback against New York’s aggressive defense, this could get really ugly in prime time. The Giants won handily in Philly back in Week 3, and I see no reason why that won’t happen again at home in Week 11. Giants 27, Eagles 17

Logic just says you have to pick Atlanta. The Falcons are much better than the Titans on both offense and defense, while the Falcons are coming off a tough-luck home loss to the Saints and Tennessee is coming off a strange win over Carolina. But Atlanta won’t lose back-to-back games at the Georgia Dome, and they’re desperate for a victory now. The football gods will adjust this week and the Falcons will win handily. Falcons 30, Titans 17

The Ravens are too good to keep these shenanigans up, right? I think Baltimore is a much better team than Cincinnati, and they should be hungry after that tough loss in Seattle, but the Ravens have always struggled against the Bengals. Joe Flacco has had a lot of trouble with that cover-2 defense, and the Bengals were in it throughout their game in Pittsburgh last week. They should feed off that and keep it close in Baltimore, where the Ravens won’t have Ray Lewis. Ravens 20, Bengals 17

A perfect chance for the Vikings to play spoiler? Minnesota hasn’t lost by more than six points at home this year, and Adrian Peterson should find holes in an Oakland run defense that has given up a league-high 5.2 yards per carry this season. The problem is that Carson Palmer looked fantastic against the Chargers and will have a ton of openings against a bad secondary that will be without top corner Antoine Winfield. Raiders 27, Vikings 20

LOW CONFIDENCE 

If – if – the Panthers commit to running the ball early and often, they can beat Detroit. But history doesn’t indicate that’s going to happen, as the coaching staff continues to put too much on Cam Newton’s shoulders. Against a stellar pass rush and a solid pass defense, Newton could run into more trouble against a team desperately trying to save its season. Lions 35, Panthers 17

If momentum means anything, the Bears should crush the Chargers. Chicago, who is at home, has won four straight, while San Diego has lost four in a row. The Bears are suddenly doing everything right, which is connected to their sudden ability to keep Jay Cutler alive. The loss of Chris Williams hurts a little, but San Diego’s line is in shambles and Philip Rivers will face a lot of pressure from Julius Peppers and Co. Under that pressure, expect Rivers to make more of his classic mistakes against a defense that has 13 picks this season. Bears 27, Chargers 17

CLUELESS

The Jaguars will miss fallen cornerback Rashean Mathis. But fortunately for Jacksonville this week, the Browns don’t have a quarterback, or receivers. Or an offense. On the road, the Jags and their decent pass rush should shut down the Cleveland offense while letting Maurice Jones-Drew do work against one of the weakest front sevens in football. Still, this is a joke of a game that I’d stay away from. Jaguars 13, Browns 10

Two crappy divisional opponents? Take the home team by a field goal and move on, right? But I have a feeling about the Seahawks, who have been competitive in their last few road games and are coming off a very impressive victory over the Ravens. Maybe I’m giving too much weight to that win in New York and that win against Baltimore, but Seattle is solid against the run, and the Rams can only win by running wild. Seahawks 17, Rams 13