GLS Picks: Week 14

GLS has the Broncos making it six in a row.

Had the Steelers winning last night, but did not think it would be that close, so we’re off to a bad start ATS. Let’s try to get back over the .500 mark with a big Week 14.

In case you don’t trust us entirely with your picks, we wouldn’t blame you for clicking here to get picks from Cam Stewart et al in the Red Heat Podcast.

Here’s where we’re at after a tough week straight up…

Last week: 9-7 (8-8-0 against the spread)
2011 season: 121-71 (89-88-15 against the spread)
2010 season: 155-101 (117-119-20 against the spread)
2009 season: 175-81 (122-101-33 against the spread)
2008 season: 161-94-1 (114-112-30 against the spread)
2007 season: 174-82 (118-105-33 against the spread)

And here’s what we have in store for Sunday and Monday…

HIGH CONFIDENCE

The Bears are overrated. People seem to think they can keep it close on the road against a stellar Broncos defense, but I don’t think we’re fully realizing how bad Chicago is without Jay Cutler and Matt Forte. There’s also an assumption that the Broncos’ running game will finally hit a wall against Chicago, but the Bears have surrendered 4.5 yards per carry this season. They’re beatable on the ground. Von Miller should be back for Denver to assault Caleb Hanie, who managed to get sacked seven times against KC last week. For once, I don’t even think Denver will need #Tebowtime. Broncos 24, Bears 10

Seattle’s feeling it. And now they have a chance to feast on a terrible St. Louis team led by Tom Brandstater at home in prime time. Coming off a Thursday game, they’re also more rested than the Rams, who they crushed on the road in Week 11 and have won 12 of 13 overall against. St. Louis has given up — this’ll be a cake walk. Seahawks 27, Rams 10

Is Philip Rivers back? It might not matter at home against a depleted Bills team that is free-falling. Did you see what Buffalo did in Dallas and Miami? This could be just as bad. Chargers 31, Bills 13

They’re both 4-8, but…do the Eagles even care anymore? Despite identical records, Philadelphia and Miami are going in opposite directions. Based on what we’ve seen this year, the Dolphins are better than the Eagles anyway. At home, they could blow banged-up Philly out. In fact, I’m predicting that they will. Dolphins 31, Eagles 17

To win, the Redskins have to get to the quarterback a lot. That’s not easy to do against Tom Brady, who has taken only 21 sacks this year. Ordinarily, I’d still think Washington is dangerous enough to keep pace with the Patriots at home, but the Redskins might be a mess without Fred Davis and Trent Williams on offense and the Pats are picking up steam on both sides of the ball. Patriots 30, Redskins 14

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE

Why are the Jets a double-digit favorite against Kansas City? Doesn’t seem right, considering how well the Chiefs defense has played as of late (aside from some slip-ups in the second half three weeks ago against the Patriots). The Jets won by 15 last week, but that was actually a much closer game that the final score indicated in Washington, and I don’t trust Mark Sanchez at all right now. New York will prevail at home, but I don’t see them scoring enough points to cover a 10.5-point spread. Jets 14, Chiefs 10

Beware of Arizona’s underrated defense, especially at home. The Cards are playing better of late, and Kevin Kolb is coming off his best game of the season. Kolb, Larry Fitzgerald and Beanie Wells might move the chains just enough to keep things respectable against a San Francisco team that has had to fight for all of its road wins this season. 49ers 20, Cardinals 14

The Raiders are sort of a mess right now. Too many injuries. I don’t want to overreact to that loss in Miami, but I don’t think the Raiders have what it takes to win in Green Bay right now. Oakland is obviously desperate, and so I think they’ll hang around. But the depleted offense won’t be able to take advantage of Green Bay’s bendable D. Packers 30, Raiders 20

The Ravens were the only team to lose to Miami four years ago. Scary, especially considering Baltimore has struggled against bad teams this year and Dan Orlovsky was good as the Colts put up a fight late against New England. The Ravens didn’t look past Cleveland, and with the AFC North on the line, they won’t slip up at home against Indy. That said, 16.5 points? Way too many. Ravens 27, Colts 16

Here’s another chance for the Panthers to play spoiler. They’re only a three-point underdog at home against the Falcons, who rarely overlook bad teams and are desperate, but have also struggled on the road this season. Ultimately, the Falcons need this one too much, and I have faith that Mike Smith will be smart and safe against a terrible front seven that has been ravaged by injuries. Atlanta survives. Falcons 27, Panthers 24

LOW CONFIDENCE

The Titans are a temptation this week. I know a lot of people are sweating over picking the Saints, who aren’t the same team on the road and could be primed for a letdown against a Tennessee team that is flying under the radar. But the Titans are extremely inconsistent, and I can’t see them winning three straight games. They also haven’t beaten a team with a winning record since they got the best of 1-0 Baltimore in Week 2. Red-hot Chris Johnson should keep it respectable against a weak run defense, but I still think Drew Brees and Co. come through. Saints 26, Titans 23

Expecting a lot of points in Detroit. That Minnesota secondary can’t stop anybody, especially Calvin Johnson and the Lions. Plus, the Vikings will likely have Adrian Peterson back in time to face a front seven missing Ndamukong Suh. Even if Christian Ponder doesn’t start for Minnesota, I’m not convinced there’s a big drop-off to Joe Webb. In what could be a shootout, Detroit is giving up 10 points. That line is too high. Lions 30, Vikings 24

It’s hard to pick the Bucs on the road. After all, Tampa Bay has won away from home just once all season, and that was way back in Week 2 against Minnesota. Then again, it’s hard to pick the Jaguars anywhere, especially considering how terrible Blaine Gabbert is. I mean, you have to be pretty awful to lose to the Chargers by 24 in prime time at home. I want to say that NFL leading rusher Maurice Jones-Drew will give Jacksonville a chance, but not even MoJo can overcome the disaster that surrounds him. Buccaneers 21, Jaguars 14

Can we really trust Dallas? Then again, can we really trust the Giants? The Cowboys took five sacks in Arizona last week, but it’s not like the Giants have been getting a lot of pressure as of late, and New York will again be without Osi Umenyiora. The Cowboys have been fantastic at home this year, and now Miles Austin is back. Dallas is the better team, the healthier team and the home team. And while the Cowboys haven’t been good in December over the years, the Giants have been worse. Cowboys 27, Giants 24

CLUELESS

The Texans can’t keep winning with T.J. Yates at quarterback, can they? Houston will also be sans Andre Johnson in Cincinnati, where the more desperate Bengals will be trying to battle back after their worst loss of the year. Cincy is better defensively than previous Houston opponents Jacksonville and Atlanta, which is why I think the Bengals eke out the victory at home. Bengals 17, Texans 14