The Indianapolis Colts are on the verge of losing out on the No. 1 overall pick in the 2012 draft and the blue-chip quarterback attached to said selection.
Dan Orlovsky led the Colts on a game-winning two-minute drill, capped by a one-yard touchdown pass to Reggie Wayne (in what might have been Wayne’s last game in Indy) as they shocked the Texans to become the first-ever one-win team to defeat a team with 10-plus victories.
Now, we at GLS aren’t right very often, so we’d like to take this opportunity to announce that we called it!
Considering that they’re now in jeopardy of losing the top pick, many figured the Colts would lie down for the Texans, but as we explained earlier, it’s actually very difficult to simply not try at the game of football. Doing so is physically demanding and dangerous. And players realize it could also cost them money. In the days of free agency, no one deliberately fails to make a play.
And that’s why it isn’t overly shocking to see the suddenly hot Colts win at home against a banged-up Texans team that was on the road on short rest. What’s scary for Indy fans is that now they have a mini bye week to prepare for a game against one of the worst teams in football. And if they win that one — in Jacksonville on New Year’s Day — they’ll almost surely lose out on the top pick.
At this moment, the 2-13 Colts still have the worst record in the league. And even if Minnesota and St. Louis lose Saturday (the Vikings are in Washington and the Rams are in Pittsburgh), Indianapolis will still hold the tiebreaker edge over both of those two-win teams in the race for the top pick.
So the tiebreaker isn’t a factor, but there remains a chance the Colts win three games and the Vikings and/or Rams win only two. St. Louis probably won’t beat the Steelers or 49ers to close out the year, but Minnesota might have a decent shot to get a win against the Redskins and Bears.
The odds are quite good that at least one of those teams finishes 0-2, which means next week’s game in Jacksonville is probably a must-lose if the Colts want that top selection.
As far as the Texans go…
Some lucky team is gonna land the No. 6 seed in the AFC. Maybe it’ll be the Jets. Maybe the Bengals or the Titans or the Raiders or even the Chargers. Whoever it is, they’re going to have a real shot at winning in Houston on wild-card weekend.
Not having a slew of key players has finally caught up with the Texans, who have looked like a below-average football team in their last two games, losing to the four-win Panthers and one-win Colts. The defense hasn’t looked the same at all and they aren’t sustaining drives on offense with T.J. Yates at quarterback.
They’re struggling to protect Yates, whose options are limited. And as a result, they’re not moving the chains. Houston’s only third down conversion Thursday night came as a result of a lucky bounce that landed in Jacoby Jones’ hands. During this two-game losing streak, they’ve converted just three of 19 third downs.
Indy controlled this game. If the Colts were able to convert in Houston territory, it wouldn’t have been that close. The Texans’ great start to the season gave them enough room for error that they’ll survive this rut, but this certainly does not look like a team capable of winning games in January.