Robert Griffin III’s quickly-rising fantasy stock shouldn’t be surprising. That’s what happens when you’re the second overall point producer in standard leagues (Griffin is behind only Matt Ryan in Yahoo leagues with 110 points). And that’s what happens when you’re averaging 267.5 passing yards per game along with 58.5 rushing yards with a passer rating of 103.2, and he’s already scored eight total touchdowns.
So no, the rise of Griffin’s value is greeted with zero shock, especially since through four games and therefore a quarter of a season, he’s projected to break 13 records at his current pace. While there will surely be the usual rookie lumps somewhere along the way similar to those faced by Cam Newton in the second half of last season, if he achieves even half of that total it will be an astounding year.
But exactly how much has his value risen since we all drafted back in August, and tried to project his performance? Welp, turns out we may have dramatically underestimated his talents, even though we were all really, ridiculously high on him.
In an ongoing experiment by a group of fantasy experts (every day I’m thankful to live in a world where that’s a thing) including Yahoo’s Andy Behrens, Rotoworld’s Chet Gresham, and CBS’ Jamey Eisenberg, a re-draft is being conducted based on the first four games of the season. There are some other notable jumps in the first round, like Adrian Peterson (say, his knee looks fine), and Jamaal Charles (say, his knee looks fine).
Then there’s Griffin, who was taken with the sixth overall pick, just behind Calvin Johnson, and just ahead of Charles, Peterson, and then Trent Richardson at ninth overall. That gives keeper leaguers a gauge of the rising commodity they drafted and can now retain going forward. But there’s a more important element at play here.
Griffin has now risen nearly four rounds in value, as his ADP in ESPN leagues in August was 48th overall. It’s possible then that an owner who was aggressive with their quarterback drafting in the early rounds and sought to retain a possible future trade chip has now achieved that goal.
I’m not sure if you’ve heard this before, but this is a passing league now, so quarterbacks have the utmost value. That’s why while pursuing a strategy where drafting multiple high end QBs early may not have necessarily been mainstream, it can work if you were confident in the players being targeted at other positions both earlier and later. Given their ADPs, it’s possible that a Griffin owner also owns, say, Cam Newton (21.7), or Matthew Stafford (16.5).
And it’s also quite possible that another owner in your league is struggling and isn’t happy with their quarterback during this time of quarterback supremacy. Given Griffin’s projected future value and, well, current value, you now have the depth and ammunition to make a timely trade.
And now the links part of the links post…
- Rex Ryan isn’t getting any pressure from up high to start Tim Tebow. That’s disappointing, because there’s a chance — albeit a slim one — #Tebowtime could save fantasy seasons again. [PFT]
- Jason Pierre-Paul just wants to have fun. [New York Post]
- The quarterback, a clock, a gorilla, and selective attention. [Pocket Doppler]
- Greg Little is so deeply disappointing from both a fantasy perspective, and a reality perspective. He could be oh so great, yet he’s continually underwhelming. But on the flip side, that’s given an opportunity to Josh Gordon, a deep sleeper you should keep your eye on. [Tony Grossi]
- Oh yes, please run a lot this weekend, Cincinnati. [Cincy Jungle]
- Hopefully that Brian Hartline waiver claim went through for you this week, because his price has skyrocketed, and pursuing him in a trade could become very difficult. Pro Football Focus now rates him ahead of Andre Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, and Brandon Marshall. [Miami Herald]