For the Aaron Rodgers or Robert Griffin III owner who desires to do awful things to the league’s schedule maker who put two of the top fantasy producers on the same bye late in the season, Russell Wilson is the best bye week fill-in not named Ryan Tannehill. We slotted him among the top quarterback waiver candidates earlier this week, and yet even now on a Friday long after claims have been processed, both Wilson and Tannehill are still available in 84 percent of ESPN leagues. All ya’ll Rodgers and Griffin owners must be pretty confident in your backups, I guess.
The more I think about it — and I think about such matters far too much — the more I think Tannehill should be favored here since he has a matchup against a Titans defense that’s giving up 273.4 passing yards per game at a rate of eight yards per attempt. That’s a lot, and it should lead to a lot of fun for Tannehill. But Wilson could have some fun times too.
The reasons for that are equally clear as the Jets travel across the country to visit Seattle. Although Antonio Cromartie has shut down top receivers, Darrelle Revis still isn’t walking through that door, and a pass rush that’s barely been a pass rush at all (just 12 sacks) will struggle to contain a mobile quarterback.
But if you need another reason to trot out Wilson during these desperate, trying times, there’s a stat for that.
The strong-armed rookie struggled early in the season, which is something we should still expect from a rookie. Andrew Luck, Cam Newton, and Robert Griffin III are the exceptions, not the norm, and Wilson came off the draft board two rounds later than Luck and RG3 last spring. But he’s been relatively careful with the ball, recording only two games with more than one interception, and three pick-free games for a solid rookie TD:INT ratio of 13:8 at midseason.
So there’s that, and there’s also this: the Seahawks will move the ball against the Jets, and with ease primarily by handing it to Marshawn Lynch. The Jets are getting run over while allowing 141.4 yards per game on the ground, so advancing into enemy territory shouldn’t be a problem. And when that happens, Pete Carroll unleashes the big guns, and specifically Wilson’s big gun.
Of Wilson’s 13 touchdown passes, five of them have been for 20 yards or more, which is second in the league according to ESPN’s Rich Cimini. That’s coming from a quarterback who ranks a very moderate 10th in total touchdowns, and leads an offense that’s scored 17 touchdowns overall, meaning 29 percent of Seattle’s TDs have come via Wilson bombs. If another deep TD comes this week, Wilson will be giving you five fantasy points on one throw.
So there’s your statistical anomaly on a cheery Friday, because we here at 100 Yards and Running know these are dark days. Please come back, Aaron and Robert.
And now the links part of the links post…
- Fantasy owners have grown quite fond of Josh Freeman over the last month or so as the Bucs QB has reverted to his 2010 form in the middle of bye weeks to provide much-needed depth. Boomer Esiason doesn’t agree, mostly because he’s an absolute moron. Ratings! [Joe Bucs Fan]
- The wild fire of injuries on the Eagles’ offensive line won’t be enough to save Andy Reid’s job. [Tim McManus]
- Arian Foster is still a vegan, but hey, sometimes a man just needs a piece of chicken, dammit. [Houston Chronicle]
- Sad Mitt Romney Packers fans are sad. [Total Packers]