After a great struggle in Week 9, I rebounded nicely overall in Week 10 with an 8-4 ATS record. Unfortunately, three of those four losses came on plays that I used for my recommended wagers, and I was only able to go 3-3 ATS with my six recommended plays. I hit Kansas City +13 against Pittsburgh on Monday night but lost my Thursday night play when I went with the Dolphins over the Bills, so I really don’t ride any momentum into this week.

I will say, though, that I like the board this week. There appears to be a ton of heavy public plays in Week 11 and for the most part, I disagree with the majority of the public’s heavy bets. That’s usually a good thing. There’s also been a couple of major line changes after last week’s action, which creates a number of opportunities to grab some line value with underrated teams. Hopefully this week turns out like I hope it will.

Cardinals @ Falcons: Atlanta has been extremely good in bounce-back situations under Mike Smith, but I think they’re laying too many points here with Arizona coming off of their bye. I won’t read too much into Atlanta’s loss to New Orleans last week because the Falcons didn’t play very well and still could have won that game in hostile territory. I will, however, focus on Atlanta’s complete lack of a running game. The Falcons were able to muster only 46 total yards and an average of 2.6 yards per carry against the Saints’ league-worst run defense last week. Michael Turner continues to decline rapidly, yet the Falcons’ coaching staff continues to turn to Turner to carry the bulk of the workload. Atlanta struggled heavily in the red zone last week because the Saints were able to focus on defending the pass and that trend will continue until Jacquizz Rodgers takes the reins from Turner, which isn’t likely to happen anytime soon. With Atlanta settling for field goals, it’s no wonder they haven’t won a home game by more than six points this season, including narrow wins over Oakland and Carolina. The Cardinals don’t exactly have the best personnel to shut down Matt Ryan’s top receiving weapons, but Arizona does boast a great pass rush that should be able to force the Falcons into some punts. On the other side of things, Arizona’s offensive line has been nothing short of dreadful this season, but they’ve had a full two weeks to try to correct those issues. Atlanta’s defense hasn’t been able to pressure the quarterback all season and with John Abraham progressively slowing down, the Falcons don’t really have a legitimate pass rusher on their roster. The Falcons probably have enough firepower to win this game at home, but I don’t trust them laying double-digit points. Falcons 20, Cardinals 16

[UPDATE: Julio Jones is active today. That doesn't change my mind here. Atlanta still has a big edge with their wide receivers over the Cards' secondary, but I still like Arizona to keep it close.]

Browns @ Cowboys: Similarly to Atlanta, Dallas isn’t a team that I trust to beat another team by more than a touchdown. The Cowboys have a boatload of talent and should completely overmatch Cleveland in this contest, but they constantly hurt themselves by making stupid mistakes. Dallas is 31st in the league in turnover margin at minus-11, while Cleveland has actually done a good job of protecting the ball and forcing takeaways this season, compiling a turnover margin of plus-1. Tony Romo has particularly struggled with turnovers this season and things have been absolutely brutal for Romo at home with a disgusting 2:10 touchdown to interception ratio. While the Browns may seem like a pushover, their defense has been much stronger since the return of Pro Bowl caliber cornerback Joe Haden. Dallas has a solid group of wide receivers but they’re not particularly good at beating press coverage, and both Haden and fellow cornerback Sheldon Brown are strong press man cornerbacks. It wouldn’t surprise me to see Romo toss a couple of picks trying to force balls into tight windows this week. Turnovers haven’t been the only major issue for the Cowboys this season as they have also committed a whopping 74 penalties which has constantly hurt them in the field position game. I have no interest in laying points with a team that is constantly putting themselves in third-and-long situations because of ill-advised penalties. Cleveland isn’t exactly the most appealing team to bet on, but they fair really well in the role of the underdog, and should be well prepared following their bye week. They may also catch Dallas looking ahead to their Thanksgiving Day game against the Redskins. Cowboys 19, Browns 13

[UPDATE: Joe Haden is OUT for Cleveland. That's a HUGE blow for the Browns. If you were considering betting them, I'd lay off.]

Packers @ Lions: The Packers lead the league with 26 touchdown passes. Detroit’s secondary is an atrocity. Do you see where I’m going with this? Everyone seems to be focusing on the key injuries that Green Bay has on defense and those will definitely play a factor in this game, but the Lions don’t seem to have the personnel to slow down the Green Bay offense here. Detroit’s secondary is extremely banged up as free safety Louis Delmas is expected to miss another week of action and number-one cornerback Chris Houston has been limited in practice all week. Even if Houston is able to suit up, the Lions depth at cornerback is pathetic and they have realistically no hope of containing the Packers’ speedy receivers. Defensively, the Packers will struggle immensely to generate a pass rush with Clay Matthews on the sidelines, but the Lions passing game isn’t as good as people make it out to be. Matt Stafford has thrown only 11 touchdowns in nine games this season and has developed a routine of throwing for most of his yardage in garbage time. With Green Bay moving the ball consistently on offense the Lions will have to do the same, and the consistency just hasn’t been there this season. The Lions may try to take some of the pressure off of Stafford by giving Mikel Leshoure a bunch of touches, but Green Bay has been strong against opposing running backs in the last month, limiting them to just 3.7 yards per carry. Another factor that may play a role in this game is special teams. Detroit’s coverage teams have given up four return touchdowns this season and several other big plays which could be a significant issue against Randall Cobb, who is extremely tough to bring down in the open field. Road favorites coming off of their bye week are 25-4 ATS in the last 29 situations and I think we’re getting the better team at a short price here. Packers 37, Lions 24

Bengals @ Chiefs: The Chiefs are nowhere near as bad as people make them out to be, but this is a tough spot for them. For starters, the Bengals have been dominant against non-playoff teams in the last couple of seasons. Add in the fact that Kansas City just lost a heartbreaker to Pittsburgh on Monday night, and I think this is a good spot for Cincinnati. It’s no secret that Chiefs routinely turn the ball over, having given up the ball a whopping 30 times this season. I’m sure Romeo Crennel has been preaching the importance of protecting the ball for the majority of the season but it just hasn’t seemed to translate into results for the Chiefs. This week, their offensive line will go up against a really strong Bengals defensive line that includes two huge forces in Geno Atkins and Carlos Dunlap. Matt Cassel has been awful under pressure this season and that figures to happen again this with Atkins and Dunlop wreaking havoc in the backfield. The Chiefs used to be a dangerous team in play-action situations, but Cassel has been so poor this season that’s he’s been unable to use the threat of Jamaal Charles in the backfield to his advantage. Kansas City’s only realistic hope of winning this game is if they can come up with a strong defensive effort like they did on Monday night. One issue: A.J. Green. Green has a tough matchup against Brandon Flowers but it’s a matchup that he should be able to dominate once again. The former Georgia product has scored a touchdown in eight straight games and figures to keep that streak going against a Kansas City defense that’s surrendered 18 passing touchdowns this season. The Bengals did an outstanding job protecting Andy Dalton in last week’s game against the Giants, and with the strength of their offensive line being their two tackles Andrew Whitworth and Andre Smith, they should hold up admirably against Tamba Hali and Justin Houston on the outside. The Bengals will beat up on another inferior opponent again. Bengals 27, Chiefs 12

Jets @ Rams: The Rams looked really good against the 49ers last week and the Jets were an absolute disaster in their road loss against the Seahawks, but let’s not get too carried away here. St. Louis has really emerged as a surprise team this season but I’m not too comfortable laying points with them at this point. The Rams allowed 183 yards on the ground to the 49ers last week and will have a lot of trouble limiting the Jets’ run game this weekend. New York’s offensive line is full of great run blockers that should be able to move the Rams’ smaller defensive line off of the line of scrimmage. The presence of a running game should be able to open things up for Mark Sanchez to hit an open receiver every once and a while. Dustin Keller has emerged as Sanchez’s number-one target over the last three weeks and the Rams have really struggled to contain opposing tight ends this season, so there’s a good chance for success down the seam this week. I also particularly like the fact that the Jets were embarrassed last week. New York has been blown out three times this season and followed those games up with a 23-20 win at Miami, a hard fought 23-17 home loss to the Texans, and a closely contested 29-26 road loss to the Patriots. In other words, the Jets have responded well after being blown out. There’s no way I’d put any money down on the Jets considering their quarterback can cough up a game at any given time, but I’m convinced that they’re the right side here. The Rams are used to playing as the underdog, but there’s a completely different dynamic when you’re the team that’s expected to win. I don’t think St. Louis will be comfortable with that just yet. Jets 24, Rams 21

[UPDATE: Heavy money pouring in on the Rams from the betting public and the sharps. Sportsbooks will desperately need the Jets to come through this afternoon. I have NO confidence whatsoever in the Jets.]

Eagles @ Redskins: It’s easy to look at the Eagles and see a team that is in complete disarray right now, but the Redskins really aren’t that far off. There are not a lot of things that Washington is doing particularly well but their poor play is going unnoticed because of the allure of Robert Griffin III. The rookie quarterback started the season with seven straight solid performances, but the Redskins have managed only 25 total points in their last two games against the Steelers and Panthers. Is it possible that Dick LeBeau provided the rest of the league a blueprint on how to slow down RGIII when the Steelers battled the Redskins in Week 8? Defensively, the Redskins have been an abomination. Since Brian Orakpo and Adam Carriker went down with season ending injuries in Week 3, the Redskins have only been able to register more sacks than two other teams: the Jaguars and Raiders. They’re also only one of three teams that gives up over 300 yards per game through the air, so if there was ever an ideal opponent for Nick Foles to be facing in his first career NFL start (other than the Saints of course), it would have to be Washington. Foles has great size and huge arm strength so he should conceivably be able to work the ball downfield with a clean pocket all afternoon. But the Redskins are at home here so they should probably have a huge home field edge, right? Well, Washington has lost 9 of their last 10 home games and are a paltry 8-20-2 ATS in their last 30 home games against a team with a losing road record. If you think that’s bad, it gets a whole lot worse as head coach Mike Shanahan is just 3-21 ATS all-time as a home favorite (thanks to @RJinVegas for the amazing trend). And how about the fact that the Redskins are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a bye week. And maybe this is also the time to bring up the trend that favorites are just 1-9 against the spread prior to Thursday games this year. You get where I’m going with this. Philadelphia gets back on track. Eagles 23, Redskins 17

[UPDATE: Pierre Garcon may suit up for the Redskins today but I don't think he'll be a big factor. Garcon hasn't played since Week 5 and didn't practice much this week so I don't think he'll affect the outcome of this game. I still like Philly.]

Buccaneers @ Panthers: I’m a big advocate of buying low on underachieving teams and selling high on overachieving teams, and I think that’s the scenario that we’re presented with here. Carolina isn’t nearly as bad as their 2-7 record indicates. Prior to beating the Redskins in Week 9 the Panthers lost four straight games to the Falcons, Seahawks, Cowboys, and Bears (all good football teams) by a combined 12 points. If Carolina had caught a couple of breaks, they could easily be entering this game with the same 5-4 record that the Bucs come in with. The Panthers have played the toughest schedule in football and subsequently they’ve looked worse than they actually are. Meanwhile, the Bucs have only managed to put together a 5-4 record with the second easiest schedule in the NFL this season. Sooner or later, Tampa Bay’s deficiencies are going to be exposed and I think that this is the week. The Bucs’ secondary is awful. Tampa Bay traded away their best cornerback Aqib Talib two weeks ago and don’t really have the personnel to replace him. Eric Wright and E.J. Biggers are now manning the corners for the Bucs but neither of them should really be starting in this league. Tampa Bay did a good job of shutting down Cam Newton in Week 1 this season, but even if you include that poor game from Newton, the second-year signal caller has compiled a 108.8 career QB rating against the Bucs, throwing for five touchdowns and rushing for four touchdowns in just three games. Meanwhile, the Buccaneers have some gaping holes on their offensive line. Both of their starting guards, Carl Nicks and Davin Joseph, were lost to injuries earlier this season, and replacement offensive lineman Jamon Meredith didn’t practice late this week with an ankle injury. If Meredith can’t play, the Bucs will turn to Roger Allen, who hasn’t played in an NFL game since 2009. The Panthers have registered 25 sacks this season, with 20 of those sacks coming from their defensive line, so this looks to be a huge mismatch in the trenches. The Panthers defense has been carved up by the Manning brothers this season but they’ve performed admirably in every other game. The Buccaneers are 3-7 ATS as road favorites since 2004 and I don’t see that trend improving this weekend. Panthers 31, Buccaneers 20

[UPDATE: A little bit of sharp money is coming in on the Panthers this morning. It's hard to trust a 2-7 squad as a 1-point underdog but I really think the Panthers are the right side here. Buy low, sell high.]

Jaguars @ Texans: I’m going to go with the Jaguars here on sheer principle. I’m aware that the Texans blew out the Jags on the road earlier this season and I know that this is a huge mismatch, but 15 points is a hell of a lot of points. The biggest factor in my selection of Jacksonville is that the Texans play on Thanksgiving Day against the Lions. If I was confident that Houston would play hard from start to finish here, I’d take them, but there’s a good chance that they’ll do just enough to get the win and focus on resting some players in preparation for Thursday. I also like the way that Jacksonville has played away from home this season. In the Jags’ four road games, their point differential is a respectable -10, and they managed to keep their Week 8 trip to Lambeau Field respectable as well. That’s really the only case I can make here. I’m not going to write some bullshit story about Blaine Gabbert playing well or the Jaguars defense getting pressure on Matt Schaub because it’s not going to happen. But Jacksonville can stay within the number here. Texans 24, Jaguars 14

[UPDATE: Only about 55% of the action in this game was on Houston yesterday afternoon, but that number is up over the 70% mark now. I'm feeling more confident in Jacksonville.]

Saints @ Raiders: Everyone is back on the Saints’ bandwagon and I’ll take that as my cue to jump off. New Orleans is in a terrible spot here coming off of their “Super Bowl victory” over the Falcons last week and having to battle the 49ers next weekend. To make matters worse, the Saints just aren’t that good. The Raiders will do everything in their power to keep Drew Brees off of the field for long periods of time, whether that’s by running the ball or throwing a lot of short, high-percentage passes. Oakland’s offense hasn’t been all that efficient the last couple of weeks but they’ll be facing a Saints defense that isn’t very good at stopping anything. New Orleans gives up 162 yards per game on the ground and 68 total yards per game more than any other defense is the NFL. That’s just plain pathetic. The Raiders have a couple of big play receiving threats in Denarius Moore and Darrius Heyward-Bey, each of whom average more than 15 yards per catch. Seeing as how the Saints miss tackles at an alarming rate, at least one of Moore or Heyward-Bey (if not both) is due for a massive performance. Offensively, the Saints aren’t nearly as good as people perceive them to be either. New Orleans is the third worst team in the NFL on a net yards per play basis. Oakland’s secondary is healthier than they’ve been at any point this season and are accustomed to playing a lot of nickel and dime coverage packages, so they’ll feel pretty comfortable going up against the Saints’ aerial attack. The Raiders won’t generate a ton of stops because frankly, their personnel isn’t very good, but they won’t find themselves outside of their comfort zone. New Orleans traditionally doesn’t play very well outside of the confines of the Superdome, and I think that this looks like a situation where they’ll likely fall flat. Don’t sleep on the Raiders. They’ve looked horrible over the past couple of weeks but they already own a 34-31 home victory over the Steelers earlier this season, and I think that they’ll come out motivated after getting demolished by Baltimore last week. Raiders 31, Saints 30

[UPDATE: Darren Sproles may return this afternoon but based on the fact that he's a game-time decision, I don't know how much he'll affect the outcome of the game. No change here.]

Chargers @ Broncos: It’s really difficult to bet against Peyton Manning right now, but I can’t justify laying more than a touchdown with Denver when San Diego’s season is on the line here. I was regrettably on San Diego in the first matchup between these two teams this season in which Norv Turner proved to a national audience that he’s one of the most incompetent head coaches in the history of football. The Chargers dominated the Broncos in the first half, en route to a 24-0 half-time lead before giving up 35 straight points in the second half and losing the game 35-24. That game is fresh in my memory and while I don’t necessarily believe in the “revenge factor”, I do believe that the Chargers are capable of playing with the Broncos. The main issue for San Diego this season has been untimely turnovers. San Diego’s offensive line has really struggled to keep Philip Rivers upright and Rivers has really struggled to make competent decisions. I’m fully expecting the Chargers to roll out a bunch of double tight-end sets to help keep the Broncos’ outside pass rushers at bay. I also like the fact that Ryan Mathews will be limited if he plays due to a neck injury because Mathews whiffs far too often on his blocks in the backfield. Mathews took back some of the passing down duties from Ronnie Brown last week, but Brown is far better at making those blocks and will help ensure that Rivers has time to throw the ball downfield. If the Chargers offense can get back on track and eat up a lot of clock, they’ll be able to keep Manning out of rhythm. Defensively, San Diego has been pretty strong this season, and they’ve also been extremely opportunistic. The Broncos have the second most lost fumbles in the NFL and Willis McGahee has developed a propensity to put the ball on the ground. San Diego’s defense has forced 17 fumbles this season and recovered nine of those loose balls, so they may find themselves with a couple of opportunities to turn the field position around in this game. Ultimately, you can count on Manning finding a way to beat Rivers—it’s inevitable—but with San Diego playing for the season, I think this comes down to the wire. Broncos 26, Chargers 23

[UPDATE: See not about Sproles above. Ryan Mathews may play but I'm not sure how effective he'll be.]

Colts @ Patriots: Don’t be fooled by the Colts’ 6-3 record—this isn’t a good football team. Indianapolis has ridden Andrew Luck’s solid quarterback play and a terribly easy schedule to where they are now, but they’re about to get a dose of reality. New England’s six wins this season have come by a combined 102 points, and seeing as how I have little doubt in the Pats’ ability to win this game, I’m going to err on the side of a blowout. New England has the most balanced offense in the league. The Patriots average 146 yards per game on the ground and 284 yards per game through the air, making them one of the few offenses that can beat a defense in every facet of the game. The Colts are still without the services of their top cornerback Vontae Davis and have been forced to promote former Patriots cornerback Darius Butler into a starting role. Bill Belichick drafted Butler in second round of the 2009 NFL Draft, but promptly released him in September of 2011 when he realized that Butler was useless. If you don’t think that Tom Brady is going to expose Butler with frequency, you haven’t watched a Patriots’ game in your life. Indianapolis’ only realistic chance of keeping this game close is if they’re able to match points with New England. Andrew Luck has performed admirably as a rookie but his 2:7 touchdown to interception ratio on the road this season leaves much to be desired, especially when you consider that two of his four road starts have come against the Jaguars and Titans. The Colts really struggled to protect Luck against Jacksonville’s pathetic defensive front last week so they’ll have their hands full with the likes of Chandler Jones and Rob Ninkovich rushing the quarterback. Don’t get caught up in the Luck hype. He’s good, but he’s no Brady, and Indianapolis is going to find out the hard way on Sunday. Patriots 42, Colts 20

Ravens @ Steelers: I’ve never seen a bigger overreaction in the NFL than what’s transpired with these two teams in the last week. Two weeks ago, people were questioning whether the Ravens would be able to make the playoffs without Ray Lewis and Lardarius Webb, but after a couple of wins over the Browns and Raiders, that conversation is non-existent. Instead, everyone is talking about Pittsburgh falling off the face of the earth with Ben Roethlisberger out due to injury. I guess it doesn’t seem to matter that the Steelers are 14-1 in their last 15 games at home. There’s no doubt that the downgrade from Roethlisberger to Byron Leftwich is extremely substantial, but the Steelers still have a quality defense that is more than capable of winning games for them (see Monday night versus Kansas City). In Joe Flacco’s four starts away from home this season, he’s compiled a quarterback rating of 62.7, throwing for only three touchdowns and four interceptions. Just to put that into perspective, Mark Sanchez’s quarterback rating this season is 70.4. Blaine Gabbert’s is 76.9. A year ago, Tim Tebow’s was 72.9. Flacco has been downright awful away from home this year. The Steelers have allowed an average of 12.3 points per game at home this season, and I have no faith in Flacco having the ability to buck that trend. Offensively, the Steelers will undoubtedly struggle without Big Ben under center, especially because Byron Leftwich doesn’t have the ability to extend plays behind Pittsburgh’s leaky line like Roethlisberger can. However, Leftwich has been in the league for over a decade and has enough arm strength to convert some occasional first downs. He’s been with the Steelers since the start of the 2010 season and showed on Monday that he has a good grasp of Todd Haley’s offense. Leftwich will also be able to lean heavily on his team’s running game as Rashard Mendenhall, Jonathan Dwyer, and Isaac Redman are all expected to suit up this weekend. The Ravens have the 26th ranked rush defense in the NFL and are giving up 132 yards per game, so Leftwich figures to be working out of manageable situations all night. Most people will point to previous seasons and the Steelers inability to beat the Ravens with Roethlisberger on the shelf, but this isn’t the same Baltimore defense from years past. I’ll take the great home team with the better defense. Steelers 20, Ravens 13

***

SURVIVOR PICK

I lost my survivor pick when New England blew it at home to Arizona in Week 2, but I’ll continue providing my insight on a week-to-week basis. Last week, I went with the Steelers over the Chiefs. Pittsburgh was able to pull the game out in overtime despite Ben Roethlisberger leaving the game due to injury. The game was obviously much closer than I would have liked it to be, but my other option was the 49ers, and I would have lost on that pick because they tied the Rams.

My general rules of thumb for making survivor picks are:
a) No division games
b) No road teams
c) No underdogs
I should point out that I occasionally stray from these rules if there is one pick that I’m really confident in, or if I don’t have any good options. This is one of those weeks.

Here are the options that most people will be tempted with this week:
Washington vs. Philadelphia
Atlanta vs. Arizona
Dallas vs. Carolina
St. Louis vs. NY Jets
New England vs. Indianapolis
Houston vs. Jacksonville
Cincinnati at Kansas City
New Orleans at Oakland
Denver vs. San Diego
San Francisco vs. Chicago

Out of the ten games mentioned above, I’ve already used the Texans, Patriots, Cowboys, Falcons, and Broncos, so I’m already left with only five teams—the Redskins, Rams, Bengals, Saints, and 49ers. Needless to say, I’m not too happy with my position right now.

I’ve picked the Redskins, Rams, and Saints to lose outright, so that already leaves me with only two options—the Bengals and 49ers. In all honesty, both of those selections make me want to vomit. Ordinarily, I’d blindly side with the home team here, but with so much uncertainty surrounding the quarterbacks in the 49ers-Bears game, I feel more confident with the Bengals over the Chiefs. Oh God.

If I had all teams available to me, my selections would be in this order: Texans, Patriots, Cowboys, Broncos, Falcons, Bengals, 49ers. Good luck. Hopefully you were smarter than me and have a legitimate team to take this week.

SEASON RESULTS:
Week 1 – Houston Texans – W 30-13
Week 2 – New England Patriots – L 20-18
Week 3 – Dallas Cowboys – W 16-10
Week 4 – Green Bay Packers – W 28-27
Week 5 – New York Giants – W 41-27
Week 6 – Atlanta Falcons – W 23-20
Week 7 – Oakland Raiders – W 26-23 (OT)
Week 8 – Denver Broncos – W 34-14
Week 9 – Seattle Seahawks – W 30-20
Week 10 – Pittsburgh Steelers – W 16-13 (OT)
Week 11 – Cincinnati Bengals

***

AGAINST THE SPREADSHEET

Week in and week out, you will get a look at my spreadsheet which shows my confidence in each selection.
The ‘Strength of Pick’ column indicates how confident I am in my selection with 1 being the most confident and 14 being the least confident.
The ‘Initial Reaction’ column indicates my confidence when the game lines were first released.
The ‘Mid Week’ column indicates my confidence on Wednesday.
The ‘Final Selection’ column indicates my final picks against the spread.

***

FINAL SELECTIONS

It’s one thing to show you a table indicating who I like in each game, but it’s another thing to actually show you where I’m throwing my money down.

I rate my plays on a scale of 3* to 6* with a 6* play qualifying as my top play.  I would estimate that 1 out of every 25 plays earns a 6* distinction, with approximately 50% of my plays earning a 3* distinction.


I’m going with five plays this week and I’m unleashing my first (and possibly last) 6* play of the season. You may have the urge to throw up when you look at the five plays I’m going with this week, so be sure to have a waste basket by your side before you proceed.

6* Pittsburgh Steelers +4 (-105) – SportsInteraction
I really think the Steelers should be favoured in this game. Even with Byron Leftwich at quarterback, I’m not too concerned here because the Steelers are awesome at home and they have an outstanding defense. Everyone is lining up to bet the Ravens right now so you may want to hold off until game time to place your wager. If you can grab a four, grab it now though—I don’t see the line going any higher than that.

4* Philadelphia Eagles +4 (-110) – SportsInteraction
The Eagles shouldn’t be more than a three-point underdog here. The Redskins have a home field disadvantage and teams tend to play well in their first game with a backup quarterback. There are 4s on the board at SIA and BoDog, but SIA has the lower juice so I chose to make my wager there. If your book has a 3.5, try to hold out until the line hits four. This is another game where the public loves the favorite.

4* Oakland Raiders +6 (-115) – BoDog
This would have only been a 3* play had I not found a 6 on the board at BoDog. Most sportsbook have this line at 4.5 right now, so if you’re looking to bet on Oakland, make sure you get some money into a BoDog account. If you aren’t betting at BoDog, wait until game time to get the best line on the Raiders. The public is predictably all over New Orleans.

3* Arizona Cardinals +10 (-110) – SportsInteraction
I’m rolling with another big, ugly dog here. I wouldn’t bet this game at 9.5, but I’ll gladly jump on board at the key number of 10. Arizona is coming off of their bye in which they’ve had a lot of time to sort out their o-line issues. Ten points is too much against a deflated Atlanta squad. There are two 10s on the board right now (SIA and BoDog), so place your wager there.

3* Jacksonville Jaguars +15.5 (-110) – BoDog
OK, I swear BoDog and SIA aren’t paying me. They just seem to have the best lines on all underdogs this week and this game is no exception. 15.5-points is a hell of a lot of points in the NFL. Jacksonville has extra rest and Houston has a date with Detroit on Thanksgiving. Sign me up with the lowly Jags!

Good luck this week!

Comments (22)

  1. Leftwich is 0-6 as a starterdating back to 06. Heck he hasnt even started since 09 vs TB & Pit is 0-4 vs Bal without BigBen. No matter what kind of def Bal has u gotta go with the QB difference & I like my chances with Flacco. Who would you rather have in game winning drive Flacco or Leftwich?

    & Brees is 6-0 vs Oak. J Graham is 6’7 vs Oak corners, Oak is starting FB as RB. Its all about the QB. Palmer vs Brees. Both have 375/374 att. 230/230 comp but Brees has thrown more td’s 25/15. This is a good spot for NO.

    Oh yeah remember Garcon is back for Was. RG loves Garcon. & RG is rested too which he needed after a tough grind.

    • You’re entitled to your opinion.

      You probably won’t find a person in the world that likes the same five plays as me this week, but I love to bet against public perception.

  2. Rob just hates the Ravens, he looks for any reason to fade them. I dont know why I keep supporting the Score while I keep getting abused with Rob’s hateful words towards the Ravens. I won’t be backing the Ravens ATS but I will be teasing them to +3.5 with the Pats. As for you Rob, I hope you win all your recommended wagers except your 6* play.

    • I don’t actually hate the Ravens. I just don’t think they’re as good as people think they are.

      If you recall, two weeks ago I had them as my top play at Cleveland.

  3. Im Boxin PHI , TB , Ravens , SF …

  4. Rob will be using his completely objective system to make several of this week’s Steeler-leaning facts into statements about the Ravens in two weeks. I expect him to point out the Ravens’ amazing record at home, Flacco’s exceptional home QB Rating, and look back on two terrible weeks of Leftwich to come up with another fine piece of analysis:

    “Stay away from the Ravens – the spread is only 3.5 and they won’t win, let alone cover. Their luck at home has to run out and this is the week.”

  5. I’ve got 2 different picks from you against the spread….KC and Bal. Good picks and insight as usual.

  6. CARD 614
    PROFESSIONAL FOOTBALL Closed: Nov 18 2012
    G# CT MT Visitor Home
    1 12:00 Nov 18 11:00 Nov 18 ARZ at ATL X
    2 12:00 Nov 18 11:00 Nov 18 CLE at DAL X
    3 12:00 Nov 18 11:00 Nov 18 GB X at DET
    4 12:00 Nov 18 11:00 Nov 18 CIN X at KC
    5 12:00 Nov 18 11:00 Nov 18 NYJ at STL X
    6 12:00 Nov 18 11:00 Nov 18 PHI X at WSH X
    7 12:00 Nov 18 11:00 Nov 18 TB X at CAR X
    8 12:00 Nov 18 11:00 Nov 18 JKV at HOU X
    9 15:05 Nov 18 14:05 Nov 18 NWO X at OAK
    10 15:25 Nov 18 14:25 Nov 18 IND at NE X
    11 15:25 Nov 18 14:25 Nov 18 SD at DEN X
    12 19:20 Nov 18 18:20 Nov 18 BAL X at PIT X
    13 19:30 Nov 19 18:30 Nov 19 CHI X at SF X

    What Would U Change? Anyone Can answer.

    • In reality, there’s no point in playing that ticket. If all of your teams come through it’s going to pay peanuts. You’d be better off playing a massive money line parlay at a sportsbook because it’ll undoubtedly pay more.

      If you want a payday, you’ll probably need two of GB, CIN, STL, NWO to lose.
      Or of course a huge payday if one or more of ATL, DAL, NE, DEN lose.

  7. I like your picks this week Rob. A lot of these lines seem fishy to me tho. Why is TB only 1.5 favourite here? Same goes for the Bengals, packers, and saints. I heard from a lines manager in vegas that the public was pounding these teams hard in parlays and the lines haven’t moved. Vegas wants you to bet them.

  8. The Bangals pick makes me nervous. They have been at home for 5 weeks and now go out on the road to arrowhead. Now, I know the chiefs suck ass but something tells me that they get a win here. The bengals defence is terrible against the run so KC should be able pound the ball. Also, the bengals last road game was in Cleveland where they lost by 10.

  9. I’m always frustrated because I can never find the lines you post, anywhere…

    • Hey David, I can assure you I’m not making these lines up.

      The blog gets posted at noon on Saturday and the lines often change from Saturday to Sunday. Going forwards, I’ll take a screenshot of the posted line just to prove the authenticity of the pick.

  10. i like 9 nfl underdogs today nyjets phil arz jack car sd oak cle ind

  11. I love the Chiefs this week + the points and an outright win

    • Wouldn’t be surprised to see it happen. The Bengals don’t really deserve to be favored on the road against anyone.

  12. Raiders, jets, stealers, and eagles will lose this week. Take Rams and Colts to cover if you want easy money.

  13. Keep up the good work Rob.

  14. Hey Pizzola,
    I want to make this monday a little exciting. what are your thoughts on tonights game, do I take chicago + the points or do I tease this game?

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