Bryce Brown has blessed us with some early holiday coal while reminding us yet again that hard decisions are hard.

Two weeks ago he was finishing a stretch when he torched two poor run defenses for 372 yards from scrimmage and four touchdowns. He also lost three fumbles, but shhhhhh.

But when he was faced with his first real test last week against the league’s best run defense, he crumbled colossally. The rookie was held to just six yards on 12 carries by the Bucs, a horrid total that gets worse when you notice that he had an 11-yard carry. That means his 11 other carries netted minus five yards. Yep.

That’s made your sit/start decision with Brown difficult tonight as he gets set to oppose a Bengals run defense that isn’t the Bucs run defense, but it’s still pretty damn good (ranked 11th, giving up 105.5 yards per game). Also complicating matters is the fact that as a late-season waiver wire pickup, Brown is just one of likely several appealing options on your bench. Of course, you can completely ignore that sentence if you’re a LeSean McCoy owner, and Brown is your injury handcuff.

Let’s end this now, though, roughly an hour before game time: you should start Brown.

Just go ahead and make the necessary clicks now, and the reasons are pretty simple:

  • The Eagles are surely aware of their offensive line weakness by now due to rampant injuries, and they’re also aware of the Bengals’ defensive line that’s pretty good at hurting quarterbacks (led by Geno Atkins and Carlos Dunlap, they lead the league with 42.5 sacks). Leaving a rookie quarterback exposed to that pass rush regularly is probably a bad idea, so in an attempt to neutralize Atkins et al, Brown should receive a significant workload, likely over 20 carries.
  • The last time Brown had over 20 carries was against the Cowboys two weeks ago, and that ended in 169 rushing yards.
  • Yeah, that’s 16 fantasy points on the yardage alone, and then he scored twice.
  • Also, while the Bengals have generally limited overall rushing yardage throughout the season, their red-zone rush defense leaves a little something to be desired as they’ve allowed 11 touchdowns on the ground.

Of course, now that I’ve served you with my logic and thought process behind a Brown start if I owned him, he’ll be horrendous. Sorry?

Comments (6)

  1. Haha I feel that this post was inspired from something ;) And so far I’m not that pleased. One thing that I kept on forgetting is that Philadelphia is a BAD team. The logic to start him is there, but if the rest of the offence doesn’t do anything, its easy to zero in on Brown. Two times so far in this game they had 1st and goal and neither of them turned into a Brown TD. Not his fault at all…well I guess he could have pushed harder but the team itself is bad, and when you’re surrounded by awfulness, against a relatively good D, its harder to shine. I hope the second half gets better though…and I’m not going to throw you under the bus for this possible terrible score.

    The guy I’m playing has Cincinatti Defence and AJ Green who are both not performing well, so this could just even out nicely both being under projections. Fantasty Football is stressful!

    • Welp, this didn’t end well. What’s frustrating is that I’d do this again, and make this same call.

      The support for the Brown play was there, and it’s difficult to blame him too heavily because the Eagles barely had the ball for much of the second half. Yes, he contributed to that with the fumble, but a lack of ball security is part of the Bryce Brown package you expect. He had no control over the two other second-half fumbles, and Nick Foles’ wildly underthrown ball. Brutal.

      What’s even more discouraging is that the few times brown cut directly up field and ran between the tackles, he looked great. That includes his early 11-yard run.

      So please, as you prepare my crow, remember that I like it steamed, not fried.

      • Based on your logic behind it I don’t hold any ill will. And with that fumble he had, according to yahoo it was Foles’ fumble, not Browns. So I’m back up to 4 points instead of 2!

  2. Worst second half I’ve seen in my life. Not gonna blame you at all, but my season is over. AJ and Cincy’s D really turned it on in second half. Score after Thursday nighter…36-1!

  3. How Andy Reid is still employed is beyond me…

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