Last minute fantasy decisions usually lead to the mass consumption of Advil, and in the festive season, perhaps even chocolate brandy beans (hey, it’s noon on the east coast, so drink it in ya’ll). Thankfully, we’re here to help and/or confuse.

Just as we did last week when we debated your noontime difficult roster decision between Pierre Garcon and Josh Gordon rapid fire stylez, this week we’ll do the same with another set of booming and busting wideouts: Torrey Smith and T.Y. Hilton.

At first glance this may not seem like a tough decision, but then remember that our gaggle of fantasy ranking experts slotted Hilton and Smith right next to each other this week, with Hilton ranked 28th, and Smith at 30th.

T.Y. Hilton (@HOU)

  • Hilton still epitomizes the boom or bust lower tier wideout. You may be dazzled by his 100-yard outbursts, of which there have been three over his past seven games. But during that stretch he’s had an equal amount of duds, logging four games with 50 or fewer yards.
  • Hilton’s yardage and therefore his fantasy production often comes in chunks, as he has five catches for 30 or more yards.
  • His targets have been sporadic as Andrew Luck spreads the ball around. He was targeted five times last week, 12 times in Week 13, and three times in Week 12.

Torrey Smith (vs. DEN)

  • Smith could spend a portion of this game being shadowed by Champ Bailey, which is never an enjoyable experience.
  • He hasn’t scored since Week 10, although that four-game stretch includes a Week 12 explostion in which he had 144 receiving yards, a season high.
  • Smith’s booming and busting has been even more exaggerated than Hilton’s lately. Sure, that Week 12 production is swell, but combined he’s had 61 yards over his other three games since Week 10. That includes seven yards on only one catch in Week 11 against Pittsburgh and Ike Taylor, a shutdown cornerback on Bailey’s level.
  • However, the big play threat Smith brings is still a significant factor in the Ravens’ pass game, and it can lead to quick-strike fantasy production. He has catches for 54, 47, 40, and 52 yards this year.

Verdict: Go with Hilton here, and any other similar lower tier decision you’re facing for a flex start that involves him. The Texans’ secondary has been highly vulnerable of late, and Joe Flacco can’t throw a ball deep when he has Von Miller’s cage in his teeth.