I know you’re scared right now, and the world is a cold and lonely place. We’re only a few weeks removed from the conclusion of the 2012 fantasy football season, a season in which Robert Griffin III provided you with great draft value, finishing among the top overall scorers. And now, he could already be set to miss a chunk of the 2013 regular season.
His injury is one that’s unpredictable, to a degree, as is any ACL injury. Complicating matters in this instance is Griffin’s additional injury, the LCL tear. Combined, the two tears will reportedly keep him out for six-to-eight months.
In a glorious Utopia where everything is made with chocolate and we get to bathe in gold each morning, every recovery from this surgery would mirror Adrian Peterson’s comeback. The mere thought of that is downright foolish, as while we like to cite Peterson and Jamaal Charles as shining pioneers, it’s easy to forget that Rashard Mendenhall waited until Week 5 to make his return this year despite also suffering his torn ACL at the end of last season. He was then a shell of himself as he re-aggravated the injury and missed seven more games.
For Griffin, though, the early projections are favorable. The optimistic six-month recovery on the low end of Chris Mortensen’s timetable put him at a return to football activities near the beginning of July, while a more pessimistic outlook pegs his return at almost exactly the first Sunday of the 2013 season. In the latter scenario, he’d surely miss a few weeks.
So when we cut those two extremes in half, we end up with what’s been reported by Mort: Griffin is expected to be ready for Week 1 in 2013.
Your heart is filled with darkness right now, and you have little reason to let optimism in. I get that, and if I owned Griffin in any keeper or dynasty league, I would hate myself right now too. But Mort’s timetable makes sense, especially since after Griffin first tore his ACL while playing for Baylor in 2009, he estimated that he was 70-80% recovered five months removed from the injury.
Yes, this is different now with the LCL added, and the second tear to the same knee. But that still gives you an idea of how quickly his 22-year-old body can recover, and why it’s widely expected right now that he’ll be able to be at least a limited participant throughout training camp, and then be ready for the season.
So what do you do if you own Robert Griffin III in a keeper league? Nothing. Absolutely nothing. You protect him just the same as you would have before this injury, and since it’s likely that at worst he’ll miss only a few games, he’ll still be a significant contributor in 2013. This is, after all, what you purchased with Griffin. There are risks associated with the production generated by his speed and mobility, and now you’re about to live through the worst-case scenario.
As for re-draft leagues next August, there’s clearly some monitoring to be done throughout the offseason to see how Griffin progresses. But oddly, this injury may actually help you — the prospective RG3 owner — in the same way that it helped Peterson owners this year.
Nervousness and uncertainty surrounding his injury caused Peterson’s stock to tumble in August. That will easily happen again with Griffin if he isn’t able to participate in any preseason games. Suddenly, fear could lead to great value.
Surely we’ll discuss this so much more in the months to come. And whoa boy, brace for August. I think at that point I’ll just start a new blog called “Kneed in the balls”. For now, though, chill. You’ll be fine, and he’ll be fine.