Today is all of your birthdays in one day, and right now every NFL writer is as giddy as old age home residents settling in for a Matlock marathon, or even better, a 28-year-old man(?) watching multiple episodes of the original G.I. Joe series (true story: this happened in the early morning hours Saturday, and I feel no shame). Free agency day, guys. The best.
But first before we go about the business of spoon feeding you every imaginable rumor and doing one final preview of the madness that will begin this afternoon at 4 p.m. ET, let’s use the magic of gambling to take one more look back on yesterday’s insanity.
It’s quite possible that despite all the movement we’re about to see today and throughout the next few weeks, we’ll look at the trades that landed Anquan Boldin in San Francisco and Percy Harvin in Seattle as the two transactions with the most impact. Sure, Mike Wallace is about to make all of the dollars, but there’s a good chance he’ll sign with the Dolphins, a still building non-playoff team. Meanwhile, both Boldin and Harvin now play for playoff teams packed with youth and potential. Harvin adds to that youth, while Boldin provides a much needed possession receiver and a veteran presence alongside Michael Crabtree.
But what, exactly, can we expect from them? 49ers and Seahawks fans will discuss that question for, oh, six months, while fantasy fiends will debate the merits of their new environments too, as we have. Vegas has an answer.
Because providing you an avenue to bet on stuff is what Vegas does, the over/under on the production for both receivers was released by Bovada Monday evening. From Field Gulls, here are the odds for Harvin…
Percy Harvin – Total Receiving Yards in the 2013 Regular Season
Percy Harvin – Total Receptions in the 2013 Regular Season
Percy Harvin – Total Receiving, Rushing & Return TD’s in the 2013 Regular Season
And the odds for Boldin…
Anquan Boldin – Total Receiving Yards in the 2013 Regular Season
Anquan Boldin – Total Receptions in the 2013 Regular Season
Anquan Boldin – Total TD’s in the 2013 Regular Season
I wrote at length about Harvin’s Madden-like production over just half a season in 2012 with Christian Ponder as his quarterback (62 receptions, 677 yards, three touchdowns). So go back and read that, and then you’ll understand why I’m taking all the overs with him.
But Boldin is a little more difficult. While Sidney Rice will still get his share of targets in Seattle, Harvin should be a more definitive No. 1, whereas there will likely be a more even split between Boldin and Michael Crabtree in San Fran. That could/should limit his overall totals, though it’ll be tight, and at worst Boldin should hover around Vegas’ projected cutlines.
In a similar situation while alongside Torrey Smith this past season, Boldin easily trumped one of the above totals, finishing with 921 receiving yards. But he only barely crawled past the receptions mark (65), and over the past two years he’s recorded only seven touchdowns. Also, Boldin’s receiving yards in 2012 are a bit of an outlier compared to his past two seasons (887 yards in 2011, and 837 yards in 2010).
I’d still take the over on Boldin’s receptions, and the under on touchdowns. But the much better advice is to never bet on any of Boldin’s lines ever.