When referencing odds, chances, and the like during the first week of free agency — and especially on the first Friday of free agency — this is mandatory viewing…

In today’s role-playing game it’s difficult to assign a character to either party involved. Is Ed Reed playing Lloyd Christmas as he sips the finest wine in Texas and breaks bread with Texans owner Bob McNair? Or is Christmas more appropriate for the Texans collectively, since they having a glaring need after the departure of Glover Quin?

Either way, after saying super nice things about the Texans and then having dinner last night with a group of team officials and Andre Johnson, Reed’s chances of signing with Houston and officially leaving the only team he’s ever known are at 50-50. That’s according to ESPN’s Adam Schefter, and this week he could report that the world has run dry of the ingredients to make pizza, and I’d believe him.

On this one, though, I’m trying to resist. Schefty is more than just connected; he is the connection, and I don’t doubt that a trusted source passed along this information. But that source could in turn be connected to Reed, as the safety is beginning to realize the lukewarm interest in his services on the open market, and he’s trying to send the message that he’s still very much available even though he just spent a day in Houston, and even though he was escorted there by the McNair’s private jet.

Everything is always in motion this week, as is the nature of free agency. But right now, it’s looking like Reed’s options are to either sign with Houston, or crawl back to Baltimore. And nothing else.

UPDATE: Reed is still in Houston to continue his free agent visit today, according to the Baltimore Sun’s Aaron Wilson.