This very much falls into the “in case you missed it over the weekend while you were drinking things on docks” category. Oh, and I’m also fulfilling my contractual obligation to go crazy over every morsel of Robert Griffin III injury news.
We have no idea at this point what the long-term effects of Robert Griffin III’s knee shredding will be, mostly because predicting the future is still hard. But we do know that he hasn’t stumbled yet during his recovery from a torn ACL and a partially torn LCL, proving that much like Adrian Peterson a year ago, he may not be human.
So many encouraging and astonishing words have been written about Griffin this offseason, but Chris Russell’s sources are now the leader in the clubhouse, with extra points awarded for their use of “smashes”.
Same person did allow that every test they give him, every path they set – he completely smashes it. They are astonished so far. #Redskins
— Chris Russell (@Russellmania980) July 13, 2013
A funny/predictable thing is happening with Griffin right now in fantasy circles, and it’s something I may touch on with more depth later this week in our new, cleverly-titled post “ADP-ing“. Even with all the terrific and inspiring reports about his progress which lead to the likelihood that he’ll be on the field for the start of training camp, Griffin’s ADP is still exceedingly low for a quarterback of his caliber when healthy.
Yes, there’s been a spike over the past week that’s since fallen slightly. But even with that uptick, Griffin is still coming off the board at 75.1 overall on average, making him the ninth quarterback selected.
Repeatedly I’ve read from the bible of the late-round quarterback philosophy, preaching to follow that thinking with the depth at the position so plentiful, leading to little need to spend an early-round pick on the likes of Aaron Rodgers or Drew Brees. Here’s the thing, though: Griffin almost is a late-round quarterback at that value.
When we speak of late-round QBs, typically we’re referencing a passer who’s often selected a little later. For example, thus far during most drafts some high upside late-round targets are Tony Romo (84.8), Eli Manning (99.9), or for the ultimate buy low, Jay Cutler (128.9).
But although there’s inherent risk when selecting any player who’s recovering from a major injury, that dice rolling is mitigated right now by the basement crashing price you’re paying for Griffin. At that value and at that draft position, he has the potential to be an absolute steal.
Consider that despite missing a game and being severely hobbled in two others last year (enough so that he was a shell of himself and could barely run, a core skill that makes RG3, well, RG3), Griffin finished with 312.5 fantasy points, good enough for fifth overall. Yeah, that’s overall, meaning among all players.
You’re getting that upside after potentially 74 other players have been spoken for, making Griffin’s current valuation a rare example of why sometimes, holding an early draft in mid-July can lead to great returns if you’re stomach is strong enough for the risk involved.