rodgers-hurt2

For the first time in a long time, there’s uncertainty at quarterback today for the Packers.

Jacksonville @ Tennessee

• Public consensus: 62% of all wagers on the Titans, 55% on the under

• Sharp money coming in on the Jaguars

• Winless teams coming off of a bye are 28-11 ATS in the last 39 instances

• Titans haven’t been double-digit favorites in any game since 2009

• Jaguars are coming off of a bye week

• Possible look ahead for the Titans? They play Indianapolis on Thursday Night Football

• Jaguars are on a 2-22 straight up slide and a 2-11 ATS slide

The wager: Pass, never seriously considered either side

Philadelphia @ Green Bay

• Public consensus: ? of all wagers on the Eagles, 74% on the over

• Point spread has been adjusted 7.5 points after injury to Packers’ QB Aaron Rodgers; Seneca

Wallace will start for Green Bay

• Packers are on short rest following 27-20 loss to the Bears on Monday Night Football

• Eagles are coming off of a blowout win—teams tend to be flat after a big win

• Eagles are allowing 30.4 points per game in their last 17 contests

• Eagles QB Nick Foles is expected to start

• Packers G T.J. Lang passed his concussion tests, he’s still listed as questionable

The wager: Packers pk from Friday, Packers +1.5 at BetUS this morning… just bet the Packers

Buffalo @ Pittsburgh

• Public consensus: 53% of all wagers on the Steelers, 80% on the over

• Sharp money coming in on the Bills

• Bills QB E.J. Manuel is expected to start

• Steelers are coming off of a blowout loss—teams tend to rebound after being blown out

• Bills outgained Chiefs by 260 total yards and 10 first downs last week

• Bills linebacker Manny Lawson made the trip to Pittsburgh and is expected to start

• Steelers are 6-14-1 ATS in their last 21 games against AFC opponents

The wager: Pass, would have considered Bills +3.5 but it isn’t available anywhere

Oakland @ NY Giants

• Public consensus: 57% of all wagers on the Giants, 53% on the over

• LVH advanced line was Giants -5.5, has been adjusted after Raiders’ blowout loss last week

• Giants are coming off of a bye week

• Raiders are coming off of a blowout loss—teams tend to rebound after being blown out

• The favorite is 12-4 ATS in the last 16 Raiders’ games.

• Eli Manning this season: 10 touchdowns, 15 interceptions. Yikes.

• Somehow the Giants are just 18-40-2 in their last 60 games in November—pretty meaningless  trend in terms of this game though

The wager: Pass, one of my least favorite games on the board

St. Louis @ Indianapolis

• Public consensus: 62% of all wagers on the Rams, 91% on the over

• Sharp money coming in on the Rams

• LVH advanced line was Colts -12, combo of sharp + public money has driven the line down

• Possible look ahead for Indianapolis? They play Tennessee on Thursday Night Football

• This is just the second double-digit favorite role for the Colts since 2009

• Andrew Luck is 9-3 ATS in his career at home

• Colts RB Trent Richardson is listed as questionable but expects to play

The wager: Pass, considered the Colts but this game reminds me of Dallas-Minnesota from last week

Seattle @ Atlanta

• Public consensus: 57% of all wagers on the Seahawks, 60% on the over

• HEAVY sharp money coming in on the Falcons

• Falcons are 16-2 ATS in their last 18 games following a loss of 6+ points

• LVH advanced line was Seahawks -7, just goes to show the amount of sharp money on Falcons

• Falcons are coming off of a blowout loss—teams tend to rebound after being blown out

• Seahawks could be flat following a come from behind OT win last week

• Revenge spot? Falcons defeated the Seahawks 30-28 in LY’s divisional playoffs

• Matt Ryan is 26-16 ATS in his career at home

The wager: Falcons +6 from Friday, I’d still consider +4.5 at BoDog or SIA today, pass at  anything less than that

Cincinnati @ Baltimore

• Public consensus: 55% of all wagers on the Bengals, 65% on the over

• Ravens are 19-4 SU in their last 23 games following a loss

• Bengals are on extra rest but may be flat following OT loss to Dolphins last Thursday

• LVH advanced line was a pick’em, Bengals became favorites when Ravens lost to Browns

• Ravens are #5 selection in LVH SuperContest this week (Top 5 plays are 11-33-1 this season)

• Last five Ravens games have been decided by 3, 3, 2, 3, and 6 points. Favors the underdog.

• Ravens are 25-4 SU in their last 29 home games

The wager: Ravens +1.5 from Friday, I’d take the Ravens at any underdog price

Detroit @ Chicago

• Public consensus: 53% of all wagers on the Bears, 75% on the over

• LVH advanced line was Lions -2, moved to a pick’em after Jay Cutler announced as probable

• Bears are #2 selection in LVH SuperContest this week (Top 5 plays are 11-33-1 this season)

• Bears are on short rest following MNF win, Lions are coming off of a bye week (similar situation to Titans-Rams last week, 28-21 Titans)

• Lions have the league’s 3rd ranked offense, and the Bears have the league’s 27th ranked defense

• Bears linebacker Lance Briggs will not play; he’s still about a week or two away from returning

• Lions are 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings between these two teams

The wager: Adding Lions pk this morning

Carolina @ San Francisco

• Public consensus: 80% of all wagers on the 49ers, 90% on the over

• Sharp money coming in on the Panthers

• 49ers are 18-5-1 ATS at home under Jim Harbaugh

• 49ers are coming off of a bye week, 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games after a bye

• LVH advanced line was 49ers -7, driven down by sharp money on Carolina

• 49ers are #4 selection in LVH SuperContest this week (Top 5 plays are 11-33-1 this season)

• Panthers are coming off of a blowout win—teams tend to be flat after a big win

The wager: Pass, I could make a strong argument for either side here

Houston @ Arizona

• Public consensus: 65% of all wagers on the Cardinals, 62% on the under

• Cardinals are #3 selection in LVH SuperContest this week (Top 5 plays are 11-33-1 this season)

• Cardinals are coming off of a bye week

• Texans RB Arian Foster is OUT, expected to have season ending back surgery

• Texans are coming off a demoralizing loss, blowing an 18-point lead on Sunday Night Football

• Texans have lost six straight games following a 2-0 start to the season

• Cardinals are 21-9 ATS in their last 30 home games as a favorite of 3 points or less (or an

underdog)

The wager: Cardinals -1 from Friday, still like Cardinals -3 but only for a half play

Denver @ San Diego

• Public consensus: 77% of all wagers on the Broncos, 77% on the over

• This is the first time in TEN seasons that the Chargers have been home underdogs of a touchdown or more

• Broncos are coming off of a bye week, potential flat spot for Chargers following an OT loss

• Possible look ahead for Denver? They play the undefeated Chiefs on SNF next week

• Broncos have been outscored 87-85 in their last two road games

• Chargers linebacker Donald Butler is expected to start after being sidelined for three games with a groin issue

• Chargers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following a loss

The wager: Chargers +7 from Friday, San Diego is still my favorite play of the week

Dallas @ New Orleans

• Public consensus: 66% of all wagers on the Saints, 92% on the over ranked offense, Bears have the league’s 27th ranked defense

• Cowboys are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 games as an underdog of more than three points

• Saints have covered 13 straight games at home under Sean Payton

• Saints are #1 selection in LVH SuperContest this week (Top 5 plays are 11-33-1 this season)

• Saints have outscored their opponents 104-41 in their last three home games

• Saints’ defensive coordinator Rob Ryan was Dallas’ defensive coordinator for the past two seasons

• Cowboys defense tackle Jason Hatcher will be a game-time decision with a stinger

The wager: Pass, started to fall in love with the Cowboys as the week went on but need more than a touchdown to be in action

Comments (1)

  1. Hey Rob, are you planning on making a Sunday morning review a regular thing?

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