Atlanta @ Tampa Bay

  • Public consensus: 65% on the Falcons, 71% on the over
  • Sharp money on the Buccaneers
  • Weather note: 30% chance of thunderstorms in Tampa Bay
  • Falcons RB Jason Snelling will not suit up following this week’s arrest for marijuana possession
  • Falcons WR Roddy White (shoulder), RB Steve Jackson (toe), and LB Sean Weatherspoon (foot) are all listed as probable and expected to play
  • Falcons TE Tony Gonzalez was limited in practice all week and is questionable with a toe injury
  • Buccaneers DE Da’Quan Bowers is listed as questionable despite practicing on Friday
  • Buccaneers have not covered at home two straight times in their last 42 home games
  • Falcons are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following a loss of more than 14 points.
  • Short rest for the Buccaneers, played on Monday Night Football last week

The wager: Pass, slight lean to the Bucs but no reason to wager on this meaningless game

NY Jets @ Buffalo

  • Public consensus: 71% on the Jets, 51% on the under
  • Weather note: 60% chance of showers, winds of 15-25 MPH
  • LVH advanced spread was Bills -2.5, has been adjusted after Buffalo’s loss to Pittsburgh and heavy public action on the Jets
  • Bills head coach Doug Marrone has confirmed that they will only dress four wide receivers
  • Despite being with the team for less than a week, S Ed Reid will suit up for the Jets
  • Jets are 5-4 on the season but have been outscored by 62 points
  • Bills are 4-1 ATS at home this season against teams with a combined 32-14 record
  • Underdogs coming off of a bye who won as a home dog prior to the bye are 0-13-1 SU and only 4-10 ATS in the last 14 instances.
  • Jets are #5 pick in LVH SuperContest (Top 5 YTD record in 15-34-1 ATS)

The wager: Bills pk from Friday, Bills +2.5 (Sportsbook) this morning. Wait until game time to get in on Buffalo.

Detroit @ Pittsburgh

  • Public consensus: 78% on the Lions, 74% on the over
  • Sharp money on the Steelers
  • Weather note: 60% chance of showers, winds of 15-25 MPH
  • Possible flat spot for Detroit? Lions coming off of an emotional victory over a divisional rival
  • Lions WR Calvin Johnson is listed as probable despite missing practice on Wednesday and Thursday
  • Lions are 4-15 ATS in their last 19 games as a road favorite
  • Lions are 1-8 ATS as road favorites of less than 6 points coming off of a win.
  • Steelers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games against a team with a winning road record

The wager: Steelers +3 from Friday, same line as of this morning. I like the Steelers at any underdog price this week.

 

Washington @ Philadelphia

  • Public consensus: 55% on the Eagles, 79% on the over
  • Sharp money on the Eagles
  • LVH advanced spread was Eagles -3, has been adjusted after Philadelphia’s victory over Green Bay last week
  • Weather note: 30% chance of showers
  • Redskins CB DeAngelo Hall is questionable with an ankle injury
  • Eagles haven’t covered a home game since 2011, 5-20-1 ATS in last 26 home games
  • Extra rest for the Redskins, played on Thursday Night Football last week
  • Redskins are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games against NFC East opponents

The wager: Redskins +4.5 from Friday, +5 available at 5 Dimes this morning.

San Diego @ Miami

  • Public consensus: 72% on the Chargers, 83% on the over
  • Dolphins CB Dimitri Patterson will be a game-time decision with a groin injury
  • Dolphins WR Mike Wallace is expected to play through a hamstring injury barring any last minute setbacks
  • Dolphins DE Cameron Wake will be a game-time decision as he suffers from a knee injury
  • Dolphins C Mike Pouncey has been ruled out with a “minor medical issue”
  • Chargers WR Eddie Royal did not practice all week and is listed as questionable
  • Chargers are getting used to East Coast trips, four of five San Diego road games have been in the Eastern Time Zone
  • Chargers are #4 pick in LVH SuperContest (Top 5 YTD record in 15-34-1 ATS)
  • Dolphins are 1-7 SU and 0-8 ATS in their last 8 home games following a Monday Night Football game.
  • Short rest for the Dolphins, played on Monday Night Football last week

The wager: Adding Chargers -1 (5 Dimes). I normally never touch public plays but I can’t see the Dolphins’ offense doing anything behind their abomination of an offensive line.

Baltimore @ Chicago

  • Public consensus: 57% on the Bears, 58% on the under
  • Weather note: 70% chance of thunderstorms, high winds, tornado warning
  • Ravens DT Haloti Ngata did not practice all week because of a knee injury and is listed as questionable
  • Bears TE Martellus Bennett is listed as questionable with an ankle injury
  • Bears are 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 games in November.
  • The home team has covered in eight of nine Ravens games this season

The wager: Bears -2.5 from Friday. I still like the Bears at -3 but only for a small play because of the weather. Bet this now, it’s likely going up to Bears -3.5 by game time.

Cleveland @ Cincinnati

  • Public consensus: 53% on the Bengals, 66% on the under
  • Sharp money on the Browns
  • Weather note: 40% chance of showers
  • Browns QB Jason Campbell is expected to start despite a rib injury
  • Rest factor? Browns are coming off of a bye while the Bengals are coming off of back-to-back overtime games
  • Browns are a perfect 5-0 ATS this season in games that Brandon Weeden did not start
  • In the last five seasons, the Bengals haven’t beaten an AFC North opponent by more than 10 points
  • Underdog is 12-3-1 ATS in the last 16 meetings between these two teams.

The wager: Browns +6.5 from Friday, still like the Browns at +5.5 this morning.

Oakland @ Houston

  • Public consensus: 70% on the Texans, 81% on the over
  • Raiders QB Matt McGloin will start, QB Tyler Wilson will be the backup—neither has ever started an NFL game
  • LVH advanced spread was Texans -7, has been adjusted due to Raiders QB situation
  • Raiders RB Darren McFadden has been ruled out again, RB Rashad Jennings will start
  • Texans P Shane Lechler is expected to play despite being hospitalized with the flu this week
  • Texans RB Ben Tate will start even though he’s playing with four broken ribs
  • Texans coaching situation: Gary Kubiak will call plays (likely from pressbox), OC Rick Dennison will leave pressbox for sidelines, DC Wade Phillips will have the challenge flag
  • Raiders are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a loss.

The wager: Pass, lean slightly to the Raiders as this line continues to rise.

Arizona @ Jacksonville

  • Public consensus: 51% on the Cardinals, 65% on the over
  • Sharp money on the Cardinals
  • Jaguars LB Paul Posluszny has been ruled out due to a concussion
  • Jaguars RB Maurice Jones-Drew practiced fully on Friday and is listed as probable
  • Cardinals WR Michael Floyd expects to play through a shoulder injury
  • All eight Jacksonville losses this season have come by double-digits
  • Teams coming off their first win at 0-6 or worse are 11-1 ATS in their next game

The wager: Pass, I actually think Jacksonville can win this game but they’ve burned me way too many times this season.

Minnesota @ Seattle

  • Public consensus: 70% on the Seahawks, 61% on the over
  • Sharp money on the Vikings
  • Weather note: 40% chance of showers
  • Seahawks LT Russell Okung is expected to start after being activated from short-term IR
  • Seahawks RB Marshawn Lynch is listed as probable and expected to play with a knee injury
  • Seahawks WR Percy Harvin is expected to make his season debut following a hip injury
  • Vikings QB Christian Ponder is expected to start
  • Seahawks are 49-23-1 ATS in their last 73 home games
  • Seahawks are 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
  • Extra rest for the Vikings, played on Thursday Night Football last week

The wager: Pass, I consider the Vikings but I’d need to get 14+ points to be in action.

San Francisco @ New Orleans

  • Public consensus: 67% on the Saints, 82% on the over
  • 49ers head coach Jim Harbaugh doesn’t expect WR Michael Crabtree back in the lineup this week
  • 49ers WR Mario Manningham is listed as questionable despite returning to the lineup last week
  • 49ers TE Vernon Davis and S Eric Reid are both questionable as they’ll need to pass the NFL’s concussion protocol to play
  • Saints TE Jimmy Graham is listed as probable despite being limited in practice all week
  • Saints have covered 14 straight games at home with Sean Payton on the sidelines
  • Jim Harbaugh is a perfect 10-0 ATS against teams with a winning percentage of .700 or more
  • 49ers are 20-7-3 ATS in their last 30 games following an ATS loss.
  • Saints are #1 pick in LVH SuperContest (Top 5 YTD record in 15-34-1 ATS)

The wager: Pass, I love the situation for the 49ers but three points just isn’t enough.

Green Bay @ NY Giants

  • Public consensus: 54% on the Packers, 63% on the over
  • Heavy sharp money on the Packers
  • Packers LB Nick Perry is not expected to play due to an undisclosed injury
  • Giants DE Jason Pierre-Paul will be a game-time decision with a shoulder injury
  • Packers are 20-9 ATS in their last 29 games as an underdog
  • Packers are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games following a loss.
  • Giants are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a win

The wager: Pass, I should have grabbed the Packers earlier this week but all line value is now lost.

Kansas City @ Denver

  • Public consensus: 51% on the Chiefs, 62% on the under
  • Question marks surrounding Peyton Manning and various injuries
  • Chiefs are undefeated but have not played a single team with a winning record
  • Alex Smith is 29-5-1 in his last 35 games as a starting quarterback
  • Andy Reid is 14-1 straight up and 11-4 ATS in his career coming off of a bye week
  • 5-0 or greater teams playing with a week of rest in the NFL are 17-4 SU and 15-6 ATS in the last 21 instances.
  • Chiefs are #2 pick in LVH SuperContest (Top 5 YTD record in 15-34-1 ATS)

The wager: Pass, still very tempted to take the Chiefs.