Rob Pizzola

robpizzola

@robpizzola

Recent Posts

After a terrible 3-9 ATS record in Week 12, I rebounded nicely this week, finishing the week 7-5-2 ATS (using ScoresandOdds.com closing lines) and going 3-2-1 ATS with my recommended wagers. Things could have gone a lot differently this week (either good or bad), as there were a number of point spreads that were undecided until late in the game.

Last week, my biggest mistake was trusting teams with poor coaching, and while I lost a play on the Lions this week, I was a miracle touchdown drive away from finishing with a push in that contest. This week, my biggest mistake was shying away from some bets that I felt strongly about early in the week. Oh well, you live an you learn.

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I’m happy to put November behind me after a 3-9 ATS end to the month in Week 12, which came after a 17-7 run through Weeks 10 and 11. I’m still recovering from that epic collapse in San Diego last week and I’ll undoubtedly never think of 4th and 29 the same way again. It was tough to watch those games last week, but I like this week’s card a lot better and I think there are some winners to be had.

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Consensus line: Falcons -3.5, total 55.5
Current betting percentage: 62% on the Saints, 68% on the over

Individual Team Trends:

  • Saints are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 games following a S.U. loss.
  • Saints are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games in November.
  • Falcons are 23-9-2 ATS in their last 34 games following a ATS loss.
  • Falcons are 1-4-2 ATS in their last 7 games in November.
  • Over is 11-1 in Saints last 12 vs. NFC.
  • Over is 5-2 in Saints last 7 road games.
  • Under is 4-1 in Falcons last 5 home games.
  • Under is 14-5 in Falcons last 19 games following a S.U. win.

Head-to-Head Trends:

  • Saints are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.
  • Over is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings.
  • Underdog is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings.

After having to endure some painful Thursday Night Football matchups this season, the NFL schedule makers have finally done right by setting up a great NFC South contest between the Falcons and Saints. Atlanta enters this game coming off of a one-point victory over the Bucs last week, but they could have easily won that game by more if Matt Bryant didn’t piss himself on two separate occasions. Regardless, you can’t help but feel that Atlanta is probably the worst 10-1 team in NFL history. Meanwhile, New Orleans had their playoff push halted by the 49ers with a 31-21 loss at the Superdome.

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After back-to-back winning weeks, I got taken to the cleaners in Week 12. I finished a measly 3-9 ATS (using ScoresandOdds.com closing lines) and to make matters worse, I whiffed on all three of my recommended wagers. This was probably the most painful week I can remember in a long time. Three years ago, I had a week where I only predicted two games correctly against the spread, but that was far easier to swallow than this Sunday’s debacle.

Obviously, I have plenty of excuses for the games that I lost. I was definitely out to lunch on a bunch of my predictions this week, but there were also some bad beats along the way (pictured above). The worst part about this week was that the public took an absolute beating and it just so happened to be in the only week of the season where I was on more public plays than usual.

That’s the definition of orbit right there. Anyways, let’s get to the airing of grievances.

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After a strong 8-4 ATS record in Week 10, I followed up with an even better 9-3 ATS mark in Week 11, hitting my first 6* play of the year in the process. Pittsburgh didn’t make it easy, but a win is a win. Hopefully the good times keep rolling this week.

My picks this week are headlined by a pair of 5* selections, making this one of my stronger cards of the season. Let’s get to it.

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NFL Turkey Day betting preview

It’s days like tomorrow that really make me wish I were an American. What can possibly be better than stuffing your face with food, watching a full day of football (with good games for a change), getting plastered, and sweating profusely through your sleep? Nothing. With three games on deck tomorrow I’ll be placing a wager on each one (because I’m sick like that), so here are my thoughts on each game. Read the rest of this entry »

After going 8-4 ATS in Week 10, I was able to follow up with a strong 8-3-1 ATS record in Week 11, including cashing in on three of my five recommended wagers. Most importantly, I was able to cash in on my first 6* recommended play of the year as the Steelers stayed within the number against the Ravens.

As usual, I have plenty of excuses for my losing wagers, so let’s get this started.

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