Archive for the ‘2010 Previews’ Category

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An anomaly of a rookie season or a sophomore slump? Which was it for Matt Ryan? We’ll find out in Year 3 of the Ryan era in Atlanta.

After one of the most impressive rookie seasons in NFL history, the Boston College product actually appeared to regress in his second season. It showed in his stats:

2008: 61.1%, 3,440 YDS, 7.9 AVG, 16 TD, 11 INT, 87.7 rating 
2009: 58.3%, 2,916 YDS, 6.5 AVG, 24 TD, 14 INT, 80.9 rating

As well as in the standings:

2008: 11-5 (made playoffs)
2009: 9-7 (missed playoffs)

This isn’t rocket science. Ryan took a step backwards in 2009, and so did his team. The two are connected. But there is more to the story.  

In December, Ryan missed two games — both big losses — due to a toe injury. That killed, as did the injury problems that slowed down the dude who made things a hell of a lot easier on Ryan as a rookie, Michael Turner. An ankle injury kept Atlanta’s Pro Bowl running back out of five games and slowed him in several more.

Can Ryan and Turner bounce back and get the Falcons back to the playoffs, or was 2008 an aberration?

It’s a make-or-break year for the Atlanta Falcons.

2009 in a nutshell: Injuries to Ryan and Turner and mediocre defence get in the way. They look like an average team for much of the season.

Why 2010 could be different, in a nutshell: Better luck with injuries; the emergence of young defensive players Sean Weatherspoon and Peria Jerry.

Three random thoughts/observations/projections

1. While I think Ryan will be — at the very least — okay, Turner is a mystery. A few analysts have wondered if maybe Turner will never get back to his 2008 form. And that’s reasonable. He took a beating two years ago, carrying it 376 times. But Turner’s only 28 and has only two seasons under his belt as a starter. His legs should still be relatively fresh.

2. The defence struggled last year, especially on third downs, and a lot of that can be blamed on the pass rush (or lack thereof). Formerly the team’s top pass rusher, 32-year-old John Abraham simply isn’t effective and barely participates in 50 percent of snaps now. Top pick Peria Jerry, a nose tackle who knows how to get to the quarterback, missed all but two games as a rookie. The Falcons will need Jerry to step up in his second season, especially if Abraham’s play continues to fall off.

3. That 28th-ranked pass defence should be better, regardless of how much help they get from Abraham and Co. up front. That’s because new top corner Dunta Robinson, who left the Texans in the offseason to sign a six-year deal in Atlanta, has a lot of talent. Robinson missed significant chunks of the 2007 and 2008 seasons due to injury, but he battled back and played in all 16 games with Houston in 2009. He’ll help drastically, but there’s still a considerable lack of depth behind him. That has to be frustrating for Falcons fans, who may be wondering why their team made so few offseason changes.

2010 prediction: The defence still isn’t good enough. They’ll be in a lot of games, but they won’t be able to keep up with the Saints in the division or with the Giants/Cowboys and Packers/Vikings in the wild-card race. Another 9-7 season makes sense to me.

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Brett Favre.

Shall I continue on or just leave it at that?

Yes, Favre is back for a second — and apparently final — season in purple. But there’s a completely different feel surrounding the situation in 2010.

For starters, there’s a lot more antipathy toward No. 4 this year. People were growing tired of his annual waffling act in 2009, but the drama started to really piss fans off this time around.

More importantly, things are a little different on the field, where Favre will start the season without his No. 1 receiver and with questions surrounding his No. 2 receiver.

Minnesota Vikings fans will tell you that last season was magical right up until Garrett Hartley smashed a 40-yarder through the Superdome uprights to end the ride. He’s already driving a broken-down car with some questionable spare parts; now you have to wonder if there’s enough gas in Favre’s tank to produce an encore performance. 

2009 in a nutshell: Favre has the best statistical season of his career as they win the NFC North and come within three points of a trip to the Super Bowl.

Why 2010 could be different, in a nutshell: Favre’s bad ankle; injury issues with Sidney Rice and Percy Harvin; a lack of depth at cornerback.

Three random thoughts/observations/projections

1. Allow me to elaborate on that cornerback situation. Cedric Griffin is out recuperating from a torn ACL and rookie Chris Cook, who was slated to start, is down with a knee injury as well. That leaves Lito Sheppard and Asher Allen to fight for a (likely temporary) starting job opposite Antoine Winfield. Sheppard’s play has fallen off a cliff in recent years, and before Cook was injured there were rumours that the former All-Pro wouldn’t even make the final roster. In a division where you’re lining up against the high-fuelled Packers offence, the Mike Martz-led Bears offence and a Lions offence featuring Calvin Johnson, you need to have a better group of healthy corners than that.

2. Once upon a time, the offensive and defensive lines were the major strengths on this team. And while the D-line still is the best in football, the O-line took a considerable step backwards last year. Left tackle Bryant McKinnie was horrible for much of the year, and the Vikes didn’t really attempt to bolster the tackle position in the offseason. Obviously the team assumes it was just an off year for McKinnie. Centre John Sullivan is still recovering from a calf injury that kept him out most of training camp, but they also expect to have him back in time for Thursday’s opener in New Orleans. If McKinnie and Sullivan aren’t right, Favre could be in trouble.

3. And if something happens to Favre, what happens? The Vikes opted to keep Tarvaris Jackson over Sage Rosenfels when they dealt Rosenfels to the Giants last week. This is despite the fact Rosenfels outperformed Jackson in the preseason, and in any other recent opportunities he’s had to do so. It appears as though the move was largely political, which is a shame.

2010 prediction: Not exactly a positive tone to this preview, eh? But despite all my concerns, I do think the Vikes will have another solid season. They’ll make the playoffs, but that’s it.

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With two years of hindsight, it’s now officially safe to declare that the Green Bay Packers don’t regret moving on from Brett Favre.

Because while the Packers have yet to win a playoff game under the tutelage of Aaron Rodgers, it’s pretty much impossible to blame Favre’s successor for those failures. “A-Rodg” has joined Peyton Manning, Tom Brady and Drew Brees as one of the NFL’s elite quarterbacks.

He’s made Packers fans forget about Favre with nearly 8,500 yards and 58 touchdowns in two seasons.

But whether his supporting cast helps him or not, Rodgers won’t properly join Favre, Manning, Brady and Brees in the history books until he starts winning in January. Those who say that you can only truly measure a quarterback by his rings are full of crap and too lazy to properly investigate the ancillary factors — Rodgers is in the process of becoming a special player regardless of his playoff success.

That said, if he wants to go from superstar to legend, he’ll eventually need to win something. To do that, Rodgers will of course need significant contributions from that supporting cast. And in 2010, taking into account his 52-odd cohorts, I’m not sure Rodgers is on the brink of a title.

2009 in a nutshell: Only the Saints and Vikings score more points than the Packers, who grab a wild-card spot and then lose in one of the worst ways possible in their first playoff game.

Why 2010 could be different, in a nutshell: One more year under Rodgers’ belt; injuries on defence.

Three random thoughts/observations/projections

1. Rodgers was bashed around frequently last year, mainly because of injuries and generally poor play on the offensive line, but also because he has a bad habit of holding on to the ball for too long. While the second point is something Rodgers will have to fix himself, the first was left for the front office to deal with. And they didn’t do much. For the second straight year, Chad Clifton and Mark Tauscher are the tackles, Daryn Colledge and Josh Sitton are slated to start at guard and Scott Wells will man the middle. The team spent its top pick on Iowa tackle Bryan Bulaga, but Bulaga has failed to impress thus far. One year after they surrendered a league-high 51 sacks, pass protection could once again be the Packers’ biggest problem in 2010.

2. That is unless they keep losing defensive backs. Starters Al Harris (knee) and Atari Bigby (ankle surgery) are on the PUP list and could miss significant chunks of the regular season. In the meantime, the unreliable Tramon Williams will start opposite Charles Woodson at corner while rookie third-round pick Morgan Burnett steps in for Bigby. A lot of pressure falls on Woodson and Pro Bowl safety Nick Collins to hold things down before Harris and Bigby return — if they return.

3. You’d think that the loss of former top pass rusher Aaron Kampman would hurt the Packers, but Kampman never fit in — nor did he want to fit in — to the 3-4 scheme they adopted last year, and his sack numbers fell off a cliff. And despite that loss, the Packers have one of the most talented front sevens in the league. The linebacker corps is young and pretty much suited to do everything from stopping the run to helping in pass protection to rushing the quarterback to forcing turnovers. The line, featuring 2009 top pick B.J. Raji as well as veterans Cullen Jenkins and Ryan Pickett, will get the job done. Although they will miss the suspended Johnny Jolly.

2010 prediction: The defence has some issues, as does the offensive line. That said, Green Bay will once again win a bunch of shootouts and survive. But even if Minnesota’s problems give the Packers a chance to win the division, I’m not sure they’ll be able to beat a team like Dallas or New Orleans in the playoffs.

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When Emmitt Smith was inducted into the Pro Football Hall of Fame last month, he became the final member of the famous Dallas Cowboy “Triplets” to get a bust in Canton. And so with that trio fully commemorated, which current team has the best chance to produce this era’s “Triplets”?

Based on the title of this preview, I’m assuming you know who I’m leaning toward. And no, I probably shouldn’t operate heavy machinery for about eight hours.

The Detroit Lions have the most promising young quarterback-running back-wide receiver trio in the league. This despite the fact the quarterback, Matthew Stafford, had the worst touchdown-to-interception ratio in the league in 2009. This despite the fact the running back, Jahvid Best, has yet to play an NFL game. This despite the fact the wide receiver, Calvin Johnson, has been hampered by injuries during his three-year career.

But name a team that has as much upside at all three offensive skill positions. The Houston Texans have Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson, but no running back. The Indianapolis Colts are in a similar situation. No one else comes close.

Who would you rather have, Tony Romo, Miles Austin and Marion Barber, or Stafford, Johnson and Best? I’m going with the latter.

A lot of mystery surrounds the 2010 Lions, but the focus is on these three puzzle pieces. To emerge as the next great offensive trio, Stafford will have to cut down on his interceptions (he threw 20 in 10 starts in ’09), Best will have to live up the hype he has created with a superb preseason and Johnson will have to stay healthy.

Obviously those tasks won’t be easy, but neither is building a great team.

2009 in a nutshell: They follow up an infamous 16-loss season with 14 more losses. But Stafford’s play makes it feel a whole lot better than that.

Why 2010 could be different, in a nutshell: Another year for Stafford and Johnson; the arrival of Best and No. 1 overall pick Ndamukong Suh; the addition of free agents Kyle Vanden Bosch, Nate Burleson, Tony Scheffler, Corey Williams, Rob Sims, Landon Johnson, Chris Houston, Jonathan Wade and C.C. Brown, all of whom are expected to start (seriously).

Three random thoughts/observations/projections

1. The defence has some centerpieces now, too. Second-year safety Louis Delmas has been battling through a groin problem all summer, but when healthy he’s one of the best young safeties in the game. Delmas has a real chance to become a legit playmaker in this league, especially if this year’s No. 1 overall pick, Suh, can become a force up front and take some pressure off the secondary. Suh has been a monster in the preseason. His presence combined with Vanden Bosch’s motor should free up linebacker Julian Peterson to make plays — something he wasn’t able to do last year when forced to compensate for a bad defensive line.

2. Although Calvin Johnson is a freak of nature, he’ll need help. Teams might have double-teamed Johnson more than any player in the league in 2009, mainly because Detroit had no other offensive weapons. But that won’t be as easy this year if the team gets what it paid for from No. 2 wideout Nate Burleson. Big tight end Tony Scheffler, acquired from Denver in the offseason, should also help take attention off Johnson.

3. The offensive line did a decent job protecting Stafford last year (he was sacked 24 times in 10 starts), but they’ll need to improve on that and do a better job opening up holes if the Lions want to take that next step. The pressure in particular is on third-year right tackle Gosder Cherilus to become the player the Lions hoped he’d become when they used a top pick on him in 2008. I do like the acquisition of Rob Simms, who steps in at left guard and immediately bolsters the interior part of the line.

2010 prediction: There are several emerging stars on offence and defence, but there are still many holes to be filled. In fact, they might be the shallowest team in the NFL. Though they’ll be way better than 2-14, they’re still a year away from making a playoff run.

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Last year, the arrival of Jay Cutler was supposed to change everything in the Windy City.

Bears fans had been waiting for a franchise quarterback for decades, and the 25-year-old Cutler, who was coming off a 4,500-yard season in Denver, was supposed to be that guy. He was supposed to bring the Bears — formerly all defence and power — that aerial attack that would put them over the top.

That didn’t happen. Cutler struggled, leading the league (by a mile) with 26 interceptions.

And since it’s hard (and expensive) to blame your young, “blue-chip” quarterback for your offensive struggles, the Bears decided a scheme change was in order. And in came Mike Martz in the offseason, set to take Cutler and the passing game to a new level.

Martz was an integral part of The Greatest Show on Turf in St. Louis in the late 1990s and early 2000s. And although he wasn’t able to completely fix what ailed the Lions and 49ers in his most recent offensive coordinator jobs, he did help Jon Kitna throw for 4,000-plus yards in 2007 and helped the San Fran offence move from the basement to No. 23 in the league in 2008.

So maybe Martz is exactly what the doctor ordered in Chicago. If so, the medicine doesn’t take immediate effect: Chicago’s offence has been awful throughout the preseason and Cutler appears to be at least mildly frustrated.

2009 in a nutshell: The aging defence struggles and the offence makes too many mistakes. They don’t come close to competing with Minnesota and Green Bay in the NFC North.

Why 2010 could be different, in a nutshell: The arrival of Martz; the arrival of Julius Peppers; the arrival of top pick Major Wright, as well as Chris Harris, both safeties who should help a defensive backfield that wasn’t good last year.

Three random thoughts/observations/projections

1. But in St. Louis, Martz had Torry Holt and Isaac Bruce (and a pretty good pass-catching back in Marshall Faulk) to work with. In Chicago, the receiving corps isn’t quite as decorated, with Johnny Knox and Devin Hester trying to hold off Earl Bennett and Devin Aromashodu for playing time. But Martz has said that he’s thrilled with this young group of receivers and Knox in particular has been stellar in August, leading many to believe that this will be his breakout season.

2. The Bears also struggled last year because Cutler didn’t have a lot of time. He took 35 sacks as the offensive line was continually overpowered. Things don’t look a lot better in 2010. Unproven left tackle Chris Williams has been assaulted in the preseason, while right tackle Frank Omiyale is still a work in progress. Veteran centre Olin Kreutz is a big name, but he’s 33 now and is recovering from offseason ankle surgery. Making matters worse, Martz’ scheme leads to a lot of sacks.

3. Despite the sacks and the interceptions on offence, the once-mighty defence is what killed the Bears last season. It’s almost hard to believe considering how sick they were only a few years ago, but the Bears ranked 17th overall and 23rd against the run in 2009. Brian Urlacher isn’t the player he used to be (and is injured again right now), while Lance Briggs continues to be plagued by an ankle injury himself. The good news is that big offseason signing Julius Peppers will help the pass rush dramatically (Peppers has been good in the preseason) and the team is getting a healthy Pisa Tinoisamoa back (although he’ll have to re-earn a starting job).

2010 prediction: They’re better than the 7-9 record they posted last year, but the Lions and Packers are better and the Vikings are still quite stacked. Another third-place finish is coming.

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The Donovan McNabb era is about to officially begin in Washington.

One small problem, though: McNabb’s status for the Redskins’ regular-season opener against the Dallas Cowboys is very much in doubt. Which could mean we’ll be exposed to the Mike Shanahan era all on its own, a week or two before the McNabb era begins.

And that could be fitting, because both guys are figuratively large enough to merit their own debuts.

While McNabb made six Pro Bowls while leading the Philadelphia Eagles to the playoffs on eight occasions in 11 years, Shanahan was busy leading his Denver Broncos to two Super Bowl titles and seven postseason appearances in a 15-year span.

The quarterback and the head coach come together in the US capital, where nothing seems to work.

Seriously. Nothing. Despite being the second most valuable franchise in the NFL and despite an annually hefty payroll, the Redskins have been a mediocre football team for pretty much all of Justin Bieber’s lifetime. They’ve made the playoffs just three times since 1993 and have finished dead last in the NFC East four of the last six years.

And while McNabb is a top-of-the-line veteran quarterback and Shanahan is considered one of the greatest football minds of our generation, neither is a miracle worker. Fixing things in DC will take time.

2009 in a nutshell: They simply suck.

Why 2010 could be different, in a nutshell: McNabb; Shanahan; some major tweaks to the offensive line.

Three random thoughts/observations/projections

1. Here’s one thing Shanahan is doing right from the get-go: he’s isn’t taking any crap, particularly from his highest paid, laziest, most childish player, Albert Haynesworth. After Haynesworth skipped offseason activities, Shanahan has pretty much humiliated the big guy by forcing him to pass an unnecessary conditioning test (which took him nearly two weeks), relegating him to second- and third-team units in the preseason and forcing him to play in the final exhibition affair. Shanahan has even gone so far as to threaten to sit Haynesworth for the opener. Kudos, because Haynesworth peaked two years ago, and it doesn’t look as though he has the mental fortitude to return to his Pro Bowl form.

2. The biggest problem with the team in recent years has been the offensive line, which surrendered 46 sacks in 2009. Making matters worse, left tackle Chris Samuels retired in the offseason. But the ‘Skins did the right thing with their No. 4 overall pick in the draft, selecting Oklahoma tackle Trent Williams. Although rookies are almost guaranteed to have some growing pains, Williams has looked very good thus far, and offensive linemen who get it can often get their stuff together pretty quickly in this league. They also went out and traded for Jammal Brown, who will man the right tackle spot. Under the right circumstances, Brown can be one of the most reliable tackles in the league.

3. The Redskins made headlines in the offseason by bringing in a pair of former star running backs to compete with their current former star running back for a starting job. But while the strange signings of Larry Johnson and Willie Parker raised eyebrows, there’s a decent chance neither back will make the final roster. Ultimately, Clinton Portis has the best combination of gas left in the tank and talent. Plus, Portis has the advantage of being a veteran member of the team who is familiar with his teammates. Despite all the star power, there’s a decent chance that the little-known Ryan Torain, who spent the 2008 season on Shanahan’s Broncos, ends up getting a significant piece of the backfield pie this year.

2010 prediction: The arrival of McNabb and Shanahan should count for some extra wins, but I’d be surprised if they finished .500.

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The Kevin Kolb era is about to officially begin in Philadelphia.

Yeah, for the first time in a decade, Donovan McNabb isn’t the face of the Eagles. The guy who started 142 games over an 11-year span in Philly is now firmly planted in enemy territory (more on that in our Redskins preview later) and the reins of the high-powered Eagles offence have been handed to a 25-year-old with two career starts.

But those two starts weren’t too shabby. Filling in for McNabb in Weeks 2 and 3 last year, Kolb completed a ridiculous 55 of 85 passes for a ridiculous 718 yards and a ridiculous (sort of) four touchdowns. The opposing defences in those games — New Orleans and Kansas City — weren’t exactly challenging, but that fantastic fortnight has convinced more than a few Philly fans that Kolb is more than capable of replacing a legend (or a bust, depending on who you ask in the City of Brotherly Love).

The jury, obviously, is still out. And it could take awhile before we know for sure if Kolb can handle being the regular starting quarterback in a city in which regular starting quarterbacks rank just ahead of brussels sprouts on the likability scale.

2009 in a nutshell: Despite some major injuries, they finish 11-5 and make the playoffs. But the year is dampered but a season-ending loss to rival Dallas … followed by a playoff loss, again to rival Dallas.

Why 2010 could be different, in a nutshell: The return of Stewart Bradley, who missed all of 2009 with a knee injury, and the acquisition of Ernie Sims at linebacker; the major change under centre; the major change at running back; the loss of underrated defensive role players like Will Witherspoon and Sean Jones.

Three random thoughts/observations/projections

1. There’s a strong belief in some circles that Jeremy Maclin could make as big an impact as DeSean Jackson at wide receiver. While Jackson is the flashy deep threat, Maclin is coming off a fantastic rookie season and might be a more reliable option for Kolb. Regardless of which wideout puts up the bigger numbers, when you combine Jackson and Maclin with tight end Brent Celek, who flew under the radar before busting out for nearly 1,000 yards last year, it’s obvious that Kolb will have no shortage of quality options.

2. The Brian Westbrook era is over, too. And although Kolb has a stable support system through the air, his backfield took a hit without Westbrook last year. Is LeSean McCoy super-talented? Yes. Does he have what it takes to hold up over the course of an entire season? That’s a mystery, obviously. McCoy had some hideous performances wedged between some pleasant surprises in 2009. But it seemed like the more he got the ball the more he got in a groove. Better news: McCoy seems comfortable working as a receiving option out of the backfield, which is crucial to the Eagles’ system.

3. The Eagles had 44 sacks last year, which ranked second in the NFC, but you can never have enough quality pass rushers. That’s why Philly traded into the 13th overall pick in April’s draft to select Michigan defensive end Brandon Graham. Despite recording a lot of sacks as a team last year, Philly doesn’t have any truly dangerous, athletic edge rushers (there’s a belief that guys like Trent Cole and Juqua Parker have sort of reaped the benefits of a superb system). But Graham is already in the starting lineup and has a chance to change that. In fact, I’m thinking he’s the frontrunner for defensive rookie of the year.

2010 prediction: I can’t look at the above paragraphs and claim that the Eagles got a lot better in the offseason. I can say that about the Giants and Cowboys. Philly will miss the playoffs.