Archive for the ‘Analysis’ Category

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When Reggie Bush was given many dollars by the Detroit Lions, there was hope in the air again. He may lose some goal-line touches to Mikel Leshoure, because ramming into things is pretty much the only skill Leshoure possesses. But that’s not what filled the fake footballing masses with gleeful giddiness.

Bush is at his best when he’s consistently given opportunities to find open space and create. Maybe that’s done through toss plays when he can use his speed on the outside, instead of battling through the much larger bodies in the middle. But it’s done most effectively by using Bush as a receiver in the flats, and in a Darren Sproles role.

That’s why there was much fantasy giggling when Bush signed with the Lions. Oh, he’ll receive hand-offs, and do the things that a conventional running back does. But he’ll also be playing with Matthew Stafford, the quarterback who led the league in passing attempts this past season with 727. And it wasn’t even close, as Drew Brees finished second with 670.

There was immediate chatter that Bush could return to his point-per-reception league fantasy stud status that he held earlier in his career. Or actually, the earliest in his career. As in the first year, when he caught 88 passes on 121 targets for 742 yards, all career highs. Now Lions head coach Jim Schwartz would like to validate that talk, presumably because he owns Bush in a PPR league.

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Unlike the running backs and wide receivers, there’s plenty of talent among the available tight ends to solve several needs in several places, while also helping you to build the Cleveland Steamers, or whatever aptly named fantasy team you manage.

We also see immediately that if the right pieces land with the right teams, the fantasy impact will be widespread.

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We bid you adieu, Michael Turner. You’ll be fondly remembered for your inability to run much more than three yards during the final year of your Falcons tenure, and also a complete absence from the passing game. Godspeed, friend.

How will Turner’s departure effect fake football rosters next fall? We’ll probably still be sort of sad.

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Maurice Jones-Drew is about to be everything you’ve always feared. He is your clown nightmare, and your ant phobia (seriously, that’s a thing).

You were already prepared to pelt him with stones next August during your fantasy draft, for he is the anti-Christ who’s equal parts temptation and disappointment. Now, he could be the new Darren McFadden.

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When fast guys catch a football, they usually do fast things. Mostly, they run really far, often getting to the end of a field. That’s a little problematic for the defense, because before the end of the field is the end zone, and that’s where points are scored.

Yes, it all sounds so simple, doesn’t it? Tackling fast guys needs to happen, um, fast. Or even better, if said fast guys aren’t running backs, then preventing them from touching the ball at all is also a top priority. Oh man, why am I writing here, far away from the Ravens’ team meetings. I should be charting plans to stop Michael Crabtree, the 49ers’ fast guy whose ability to run and gain yards after the catch is consistently concerning.

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Last week, we wondered if the Falcons could contain — or at least limit — Colin Kaepernick and his running ability. And they did, but really they didn’t.

During the 49ers’ 28-24 NFC Championship game win, Kaepernick rushed for only 21 yards. That’s just, oh, 160 yards fewer than his total the week before. Yes, a game in which Kaep set the single-game quarterback rushing record is a bit of an outlier, and a poor comparison. But his rushing total against Atlanta was still 27.9 yards lower than his average over his eight previous starts. So his legs were indeed limited, at least in terms of how far they helped him to move past the line of scrimmage when Kaepernick was still holding a football. That alone was an accomplishment, especially with John Abraham hobbled.

Bravo, dirty birdz. How did that work out for you? The mere threat of Kaepernick running still creates lanes for Frank Gore on read-option plays, and he excels while throwing on the move during designed roll outs. A throwing Kaepernick was Atlanta’s poison of choice, and he then passed for 233 yards at a season high pace of 11.1 yards per attempt, and a passer rating of 127.7 (his second highest single-game rating, just behind a 133.1 rating in Week 11 against Chicago).

A week later we have the same question, and a different team. Can the Ravens contain Kaepernick?

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There are injuries hovering around this game. It’s not an abundance of black and blue anymore, especially for the Ravens, a healed team that’s only seen Ray Lewis and Terrell Suggs on the field at the same time for a handful of games this year. For the Patriots there’s the matter of Rob Gronkowski, and how his absence effects their offense.

In that sense, the subtractions (Gronk for New England, Lardarius Webb for Baltimore) are a wash, which re-focuses this game to where the central talking point belongs: the rivalry. This should be the kind of close, brutal football that’s expected of a championship Sunday.

For evidence of that, we only need to look back at recent history. Of the last six meetings between these two teams in both the playoffs and regular season, the margin of victory in five of them has been less than a touchdown. Taking that further, four of the six games were won by a field goal or less. Even when we include the glaring exception (Baltimore’s 33-14 Wildcard Weekend win in 2010), the cumulative score throughout the six games is still 164-129.

With the immensity of the offseason movement in the NFL by both players and coaches, I don’t usually give long-term win-loss records of that nature much value, but those spreads are difficult to ignore. Tomorrow likely won’t deviate from history, or at least not much, as we won’t see a blowout despite what Madden 13 would have you believe.

But unless the Ravens can continue passing deep, and passing deep often, another trend will continue too. Throughout the nine-game history of this series, the Ravens have won only twice.

The surface layer of numbers begin to tell the story of how Baltimore can win this game. Or lose it again.

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