Archive for the ‘Fantasy’ Category

For the majority of leagues, the 2011 fantasy football season is over. But because fantasy sports are as addicting as some sort of mystical combination of sex and cocaine, many of you are surely already thinking about what to do in the first round of next year’s draft.

So let’s talk first overall picks.

Early this century, it was Marshall Faulk. Then it was Priest Holmes, followed by Larry Johnson, Shaun Alexander and LaDainian Tomlinson. The last few years, it’s been either Adrian Peterson or Chris Johnson.

Since fantasy football became a sports juggernaut in the early in the 21st century, there has almost always been a consensus top fantasy pick.

But 2012 might be the first year in which there’s nothing close to a clear-cut No. 1 overall pick. While Peterson and Johnson have jockeyed for the honor in recent seasons, they’re probably both out of the running this upcoming summer.

Peterson had a decent 2011 campaign, but injuries got the best of him and now his status for the start of 2012 is in jeopardy after he suffered a major knee injury Saturday.

Johnson has simply been a terrible disappointment. Despite starting in all 15 games this year, the 26-year-old is still shy of the 1,000-yard plateau. He doesn’t have the same burst that made him a 2,000-yard rusher in 2009 and a surefire top fantasy pick in 2010.

Neither Johnson nor Peterson should be considered top picks anymore, and no one has emerged this season to take their spots.

Several other players that merited first-round consideration this past summer have also lost momentum this season. Jamaal Charles and Darren McFadden have dealt with season-destroying injuries, while Arian Foster and Michael Turner have seen their numbers drop off.

Still, expect more than a few bold and/or bewildered fantasy owners to roll the dice on either Charles or McFadden or Foster or even Johnson or Peterson to kick off their fantasy drafts come August.

Those more qualified and/or less audacious fantasy participants will probably go with either Maurice Jones-Drew, LeSean McCoy or Matt Forte. McCoy, who’s been a touchdown machine, trails only Jones-Drew in rushing yards. He’s been the top fantasy performer at the running back position in all formats this season. But Forte wasn’t far behind him before suffering a season-ending injury early in Week 13. Ray Rice, who leads all backs with nearly 700 yards receiving and, like Jones-Drew, has been a consistent threat for several years now, might also get some consideration.

Like Peterson and Johnson, Jones-Drew will be 27 when the 2012 season begins. In running back terms, that’s not young. Forte will be 26 and Rice will be 25.

But McCoy will only be 24, which should further help his case to become the league’s most dangerous fantasy weapon in 2012.

If we had to guess right now, we’d predict that McCoy will emerge as the top pick, but it’ll be further than ever from a consensus next year. Here’s our very early first-round mock draft:

1. LeSean McCoy, Eagles
2. Maurice Jones-Drew, Jaguars
3. Matt Forte, Bears
4. Ray Rice, Ravens
5. Arian Foster, Texans
6. Ryan Mathews, Chargers
7. Cam Newton, Panthers
8. Marshawn Lynch, Seahawks
9. Darren McFadden, Raiders
10. Adrian Peterson, Vikings
11. Aaron Rodgers, Packers
12. Frank Gore, 49ers

Your fantasy season could rest on Drew Brees' arm Monday night.

I could write something poetic and moving here. Something about a fake sports season that started in the simmering August sun, and now comes to its conclusion with championship week during the controlled insanity of the holiday season.

I could mention every little obscure waiver wire move that made this week possible if you’re fortunate enough to still be alive, and the remarkable skill you’ve shown by avoiding your family every Sunday for 15 weeks and counting.

And I could inspire by saying something about clawing for inches, or screaming while kicking someone into a dark, bottomless hole. All of this might be helpful, but it would more likely be pageantry where none is needed.

All you care about is money right now, and continuing to avoid your family for one more fantasy week. So good luck in your pursuit of both those goals, noble man cave hermit. Let’s move onward with our final edition of the weekly 2011 composite fantasy rankings featuring my musings, but mostly those of four other guys smarter than me (Yahoo’s Brandon Funston and Andy Behrens, ESPN’s Matthew Berry, and NFL.com’s Michael Fabiano).

Quarterbacks

Roethlisberger oddly cracks the top 15 for all but one of our experts, and Funston has him at No. 12. A healthy Big Ben would certainly occupy top 15 real estate, but even then the Rams still wouldn’t present an overly appealing matchup. The St. Louis secondary is the lone bright spot during an otherwise putrid year for the team that will likely fire its coach in a few weeks.

It’s a unit that’s giving up only 206.3 passing yards per game, whereas the run defense has been ranked dead last for most of the year, and is coughing up 153.4 yards. Roethlisberger is officially a game-time decision, but even if he’s under center again at far less than 100 percent, he’s not worthy of any starting consideration whatsoever during the most important fantasy week of the season.

Running Backs

You’d think that C.J. Spiller would have earned respect across the board since he’s slowly proving himself after Fred Jackson went down for the year, and after 91 rushing yards and his first rushing touchdown of 2011 last week against a Miami defense that’s ranked third in the league, and is allowing just 3.6 yards per carry. Spiller has also been highly effective as a receiver, and added 76 receiving yards and a touchdown through the air against the Dolphins.

All of those numbers aren’t good enough for Berry and Funston, both of whom have Spiller ranked outside of the top 15, and Berry nearly has him out of the top 20. Meanwhile, Spiller will be running against a Denver rush defense that’s vastly improved from its disastrous 2010, but is still allowing 125.4 yards per game (20th).

The optimism isn’t nearly as high for Marshawn Lynch. Most of the elite running backs have favorable or at least serviceable matchups during championship week, but Lynch is the glaring exception against the 49ers, the best rushing defense in the league, and the only unit that hasn’t allowed a rushing touchdown. You can’t bench a running back whose last game without a touchdown was in Week 3, and while last week was a disappointment, Lynch still has at least 100 rushing yards or more in five of his last seven games.

The bench is a painful place for a player of that caliber, and it’ll cause the kind of mental stress that would even drive pleasant singing angels mad during the holiday season. Just expect disappointment, and be pleased with anything more.

Wide receivers

The disagreement with Vincent Jackson is presumably a product of his injury. Jackson missed practice for the second straight day today with a groin problem.

You should be worried about Jackson’s inability to practice, because if you weren’t that would mean that you don’t care about your imaginary football team during championship week, which would lead me to question how you’ve read this far into a fantasy post. Our medical knowledge ends at paper cuts and hang nails, but we can still base a Jackson hunch on experience and recent history, and we’re pretty sure he’s been hurt since the age of seven, yet he still finds a way to play every week and at the very least produce WR2 numbers. Prepare to play the Chargers wideout, but prepare a viable fall back option too.

Also, being down on Nicks is understandable. Hell, it’s encouraged, but taking an opinion to its logical extreme is like believing that saying “with all due respect” gives you the license to say whatever you want without consequence. Eventually you’ll look like a fool, as Behrens does by placing Nicks in his No. 25 hole.

Revis Island is still a scary place, and no opposing receiver has finished with 70 or more yards against the Jets over the last three weeks, with tight ends Brent Celek and Fred Davis doing most of the aerial damage recently. So I’d have no problem ranking Nicks low, and maybe as low as 18th. But 25th seems far too steep, because although the Eagles’ wide receivers couldn’t pull if off last week despite their easy win, eventually a team that’s deep and dynamic at wide receiver will be able the stretch the field against the Jets’ secondary.

Nicks and Victor Cruz are next up, and they’re more than capable.

Tight Ends

Daniels is already low, but I’d like to see him off of this list entirely for tonight’s game against Indy. With Andre Johnson still out, the overzealous Daniels owner may think he’s still reliable as a frequent panic button for T.J. Yates, the rookie quarterback who will spend most of his evening putting the ball squarely in the stomach of Arian Foster and Ben Tate. That same owner will look back on Daniels’ 100 receiving yards on seven receptions in Week 14 to support his cause.

But that game against Cincinnati looks more and more like a vicious aberration. If we exclude Week 14 while looking back on Houston’s four games since Matt Schaub went down prior to their Week 11 bye, Daniels is averaging a painfully pedestrian 31.6 yards per game, and he hasn’t scored since Oct. 2.

Our advent calendars indicate that Oct.2 was over two months ago. Yeah, we have advent calendars that encompass the entire year, and they’re not even counting down to anything. We just like to eat chocolate every day.

Congratulations if you’re playing in your fantasy league’s championship this week.  Here are some start and sit suggestions to help you out. Good luck, we’re all counting on you.

Quarterbacks

IN: Matt Ryan, Falcons
Matty Ice is back to putting up big numbers and at just the right time. Fantasy owners may have been a little miffed when Ryan got the hook after just three quarters last week, but by then he’d already thrown 224 yards and three touchdowns and the Falcons were in control. But that won’t be the case this week against the Saints. This NFC South tilt has shootout written all over it and Ryan will be able to do some serious damage against a New Orleans pass D that ranks near the bottom of the league.

OUT: Eli Manning, Giants
To say Manning had a disappointing game last week would be an understatement. In most standard leagues, Eli finished with less than five points and he’s got another tough assignment in Week 16. Yes, the Jets just got beat up by the Eagles last week, but the team has still allowed only 13 passing touchdowns this season and the fifth-fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. Darrelle Revis, Antonio Cromartie and company will be out to prove something on Saturday.

Running backs 

IN: DeAngelo Williams, Panthers
After a slow start (a very slow start) to the season, Williams is rewarding fantasy owners for their patience. He’s put up double-digit points in four of the last five games and has found the end zone four times in as many contests. And Williams has a juicy game coming up against the Bucs, a team that is giving up the most fantasy points to backs this season. Don’t let the fact that Williams splits carries with Jonathan Stewart scare you off –- there should be plenty of rushing opportunities to go around.

OUT: Beanie Wells, Cardinals
Wells hasn’t looked like the same rusher we saw at the beginning of the season — he’s been slowed by knee troubles and is always just a hit away from leaving the game. In his last three matches, Wells has just 145 yards rushing combined and is averaging less than three yards per carry. The only saving grace for Wells is the fact he has scored three times in the last four games. But the Bengals are a good run stopping team, allowing less than 100 yards per game, so look for Wells to struggle again.

Wide Receivers

IN: Demaryius Thomas, Broncos
Thomas has become Tim Tebow’s go-to guy over the last few weeks (338 yards and three touchdowns in the last three games). Even though he didn’t find the end zone last week, the wideout still finished with seven catches (great for PPR leagues) and 116 yards. Thomas is a big red-zone target and he will be able to take advantage against a Bills squad that has been struggling on both sides of the ball.

OUT: Laurent Robinson, Cowboys
Robinson has been a touchdown machine this season (he’s scored in seven of the last eight games and leads the Cowboys with nine), but his role in the Dallas offense has change dramatically. Now that Miles Austin is back, Robinson has been reduced to a bench role and only sees action in three wide receiver sets. He was only targeted three times last week against Tampa but caught all three balls and scored another touchdown. With so many options, Robinson is too much of a question mark to start with any confidence.

Tight Ends

IN: Jermaine Gresham, Bengals
Gresham has had more misses than hits this year and is coming off a 16-yard performance last week against the Rams, his lowest total since Week 2. Having said all that, the Bengals tight end is worth a start this week. Stud receiver A.J. Green might be limited because of a sprained shoulder, which means Andy Dalton could look Gresham’s way more often on Saturday. This is a big game for Cincinnati as the team fights for a playoff spot, and Gresham should be given the opportunity to produce.

OUT: Heath Miller, Steelers
With Ben Roethlisberger hobbling, Miller became the quarterback’s security blanket last week against the 49ers, finishing with 82 yards. Big Ben’s status for this week is very much up in the air, which isn’t good news for anyone on the Steelers offense. The Rams may have a horrible D, but the team has been very effective against tight ends — the unit has allowed less than 400 yards total and just one touchdown to the position this year. Miller should stay on your bench.

Kickers

IN: Neil Rackers, Texans
Rookie T.J. Yates had major issues moving the football last week and if that continues Thursday against the Colts, Rackers could have a field day. The Texans kicker has missed a field goal in each of his last three games, but don’t let that stop you from starting him. Andre Johnson will not play, but Houston still has plenty of options on offense and the Colts D isn’t putting a scare in anyone these days. Rackers could hit double-digit fantasy points for the first time since Week 7.

OUT: Adam Vinatieri, Colts
How inconsistent has the Colts offense been this season? Vinatieri had two field goals last week against the Titans (just the fourth time he’s done that all season) and three extra points (just the third time he’s done that all season) but don’t expect that kind of production on Thursday from the veteran. Despite a brief hiccup last week, the Houston defense is still very, very good and points will be hard to come by for Indy.

Defenses

IN: Redskins
Washington’s D has been up and down all year but this week the unit is facing Minnesota, a team that is giving up the third-most fantasy points to opposing defenses this season. The pass rush has been a major strength for the Redskins and that means trouble for the Vikings, who have allowed three or more sacks in seven straight games. Washington is coming off a terrific outing against the Giants (four turnovers, just 10 points allowed) and the unit will be safe to use in Week 16.

OUT: Bears
The Bears D, on the other hand, did not play well against the Seahawks last week but the unit saved its fantasy worth thanks to a fumble recovery in the end zone. Prior to Week 15, Chicago’s defense was the definition of consistent, surpassing double-digit fantasy points in each of the last three games. But this is the week to keep one of the top-ranked scoring defenses on your bench. The Packers are coming off their first loss of the season and you don’t want to be the next team facing that offense.

Arian Foster should become the latest running back to torch Carolina's front seven.

Immediately after you read this post, drop what you’re doing and finish your Christmas shopping. What you get doesn’t matter, you just need something. Get little Jane a black banana, and little Billy a fresh new onion. Completion is the only end goal, because Sunday distractions need to be eliminated, and if you ignore traffic lights you can probably get everything done before the Thursday nighter.

This is more than just fantasy playoff time now, because for some leagues it’s championship week. You’ve been cementing that couch groove for 14 weeks, but now the distractions of December can cause a lapse in focus, leading to something dangerous and deadly, like DeMarco Murray owners neglecting to pick up Felix Jones. Don’t waste three months of time wasting.

Yes, remarkably it’s Week 15, and the third week of our composite rankings with Yahoo’s Brandon Funston, ESPN’s Matthew Berry, NFL.com’s Michael Fabiano, and Dave Richard of CBSSports.com. This means that in just a few weeks we’ll all have to just watch a football game for the sake of watching a football game, and we’ll have no personal stake in a team called Brady Quinn, Medicine Woman.

This is sad and frightening, and it’ll be even worse if you lose to your roommate, and the loser has to get a tattoo of a scorpion-horse man.

You have to win this week, so here’s some guidance from me, and four other guys who probably know more than me. I break the ties in the “average” column, because I’ve given myself that power.

Quarterbacks

There’s a predictable consensus at the top with Rodgers and Brees. On the bottom end, Grossman’s cannon could quickly be neutralized by a Giants pass rush that’s tied for sixth with 36 sacks, and is led by Jason Pierre-Paul, who’s been particularly beastly of late with two sacks last week, and 12.5 overall. Those aren’t favorable numbers for Grossman while he’s playing behind an offensive line that’s allowed their quarterback to be hit 92 times this year.

If you’re desperately searching for some insurance since it’s looking like Ben Roethlisberger may not start, hopefully you acquired depth during the season in the second and third tier of quarterbacks. I’d favor Matt Moore, Dalton, or Palmer over Grossman, and the Raiders veteran is especially appealing because he’s facing a Detroit defense that could still be greatly depleted, and Denarius Moore should be set to return.

Running Backs

I’m confused over the confusion surrounding Benson, as there’s a difference of seven spots between his highest and lowest ranking. Sure, Benson hasn’t exactly been a reliable, powerhouse rusher, and he’s had six games with less than 60 yards. But he’ll be running against St. Louis, a team with the worst rush defense in the league (averaging 156.8 yards per game), and with both Sam Bradford and A.J. Feeley hurting, this game could get really bad, really fast.

That’ll mean more one-on-one time with the football for Benson as he’s asked to grind the clock down, just like Murray did for the Cowboys back in Week 7 in a blowout game when he had 253 rushing yards. In fact, if you have Murray and were beaten to Jones, there’s little reason for concern this week if you can bring Benson off your bench.

The other prominent note here is Richard taking the overly-cautious approach with Peterson and excluding him entirely, presumably because of his lingering ankle injury. Peterson is on track to start despite being limited in practice this week, and he has a favorable matchup against a New Orleans front seven that’s giving up 4.9 yards per carry.

Wide Receivers

I would have accepted Welker as low as about the No. 8 hole. But c’mon Richard, 15th?

I understand the Champ Bailey effect, and the Gronk effect, and the overall God effect whenever Tebow is present. But Welker’s averaging 117.3 yards per game on the road, and eight of his nine touchdowns have come when the Patriots are far away from Foxboro.

Richard’s stance on Nelson is also troubling. He’s the Packers’ No.1 wideout now with Greg Jennings out for the remainder of the regular season. I understand some apprehension about how Rodgers will adjust to life without Jennings, and I understand that Brandon Flowers is still tied for third in the AFC with four interceptions.

However, the Chiefs’ secondary is still giving up a mediocre 7.7 yards per pass attempt, and Nelson has 175 receiving yards over his last two games.

Richard is beyond being against the grain with his wide receivers. He takes the grain, destroys it, and makes a new grain that runs vertically on his piece of fantasy wood, which is impossible, but he makes it work. Throw in his rankings for Stevie Johnson and Laurent Robinson, and rolling with Richard’s receiver advice is like turning down the first showcase in the Showcase showdown on the Price is Right.

You may have just turned down the car and RV you don’t need for a trip around the world. Or maybe you get a new kitchen set, complete with a stainless steel sink.

Tight Ends

Unless there’s a particularly horrific matchup, it’s quite difficult to slot Jimmy Graham any lower than No. 2. But Funston found a way, likely due to apprehension after the Saints tight end was hobbled last Sunday due to a back injury.

With the divide much more rigid among the tight ends than any other position, this remains the main area of consensus. However, Keller should be several slots lower, and perhaps flipped with Ballard.

Keller hasn’t been stretching the field down the middle recently like he was earlier in the year, and he’s averaging only 6.6 yards per catch over the last two weeks. Meanwhile, Ballard and Winslow are both averaging at least 40 yards per game since Week 12, which is fine production from a second tier tight end.

It’s fantasy playoff crunch time and here are some players that you’ll want to start and some you’ll want to avoid in Week 15:

Quarterbacks

IN: Carson Palmer, Raiders
Interceptions have been a major concern for Palmer lately (he threw four last week against Green Bay) but he’s still worth a play this week. Detroit’s secondary isn’t what it used to be (the unit is giving up an average of almost 25 fantasy points to quarterbacks over the last month) and with the likely return of Denarius Moore, Palmer will have his deep threat back in the lineup. The duo can definitely do some damage and fans should expect a shootout in the Bay Area on Sunday.

OUT: Philip Rivers, Chargers
It might be hard to keep Rivers on the bench in Week 15 — especially since he’s put up over 500 yards passing and six touchdowns in the last two weeks. But the Chargers will face the Ravens on Sunday, a team that has given up the fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks this season. In fact, the Baltimore D hasn’t allowed a QB to throw for more than 200 yards in a game. Rivers will be under pressure all afternoon, so don’t be surprised if his numbers aren’t that impressive.

Running Backs

IN: Cedric Benson, Bengals
Benson hasn’t been the most reliable and productive back this season, but he should be in your lineup this week. Why? The St. Louis Rams. Enough said. The Rams are ranked dead last in the league against the run (giving up almost 157 rush yards per game) and Benson, along with a lot of other Bengals, should put up some big numbers in Week 15.

OUT: Rashard Mendenhall, Steelers
This late in the season and the message remains the same: do not play your running backs against the 49ers. San Francisco still hasn’t allowed a rushing touchdown and is tops in the league against the run. Mendenhall has been less than impressive (he’s rushed for more than 80 yards just once, back in Week 6) although he has been a frequent visitor to the end zone recently (five touchdowns in his last five games). Yards on the ground will be hard to come by this week, so don’t be surprised if the Steelers employ the aerial attack instead.

Wide Receivers

IN: Nate Washington, Titans
This pick is all about the matchup. The Titans are off to Indy to face the still winless Colts on Sunday, a team that is allowing the seventh most fantasy points to wide receivers this year. Tennessee might have rookie Jake Locker under center, but that’s not a major factor because Locker has performed well in limited action. Despite leaving last week’s game with a back injury (as well as struggling with an ankle issue), Washington will play Sunday and should put up some nice numbers against a weak secondary.

OUT: DeSean Jackson, Eagles
While the matchup definitely favors Nate Washington in Week 15, you can’t say the same for Jackson. The Eagles are taking on the Jets and their shutdown secondary on Sunday so Jackson will have to fight off the likes of Darrelle Revis and/or Antonio Cromartie for yardage. Good luck. Jackson did find the end zone last week for the first time since Week 5, but the wideout is averaging just six fantasy points in his last seven games. Those numbers won’t get you into your fantasy league’s championship.

Tight Ends

IN: Owen Daniels, Texans
Rookie T.J. Yates is starting to build a rapport with the tight end — Daniels was targeted 10 times last week, finishing with seven catches for over 100 yards. Expect that kind of production to continue this week when Houston takes on Carolina (it’s unlikely that the injured Andre Johnson will be fit enough to play). Daniels will continue to be the young QB’s security blanket against a Panthers D (allowing around eight fantasy points to tight ends) that doesn’t put a scare into anyone.

OUT: Vernon Davis, 49ers
The stats are definitely stacked against Davis in Week 15. It’s been a disappointing season for the Niners tight end — he has just 102 yards combined (and no touchdowns) in the last three weeks and doesn’t rank in the top 10 in terms of fantasy points for his position. In fact, Davis had just one measly catch last week against the Cardinals. The Steelers are ranked second in the league against the pass, so you might want to look for another tight end option this week.

Kickers

IN: Lawrence Tynes, Giants
The Giants offense has been on fire, with 96 points combined over the last three weeks. The good times should continue in Week 15 against the Redskins, which will benefit New York’s kicker. While his numbers haven’t been out of this world lately, Tynes has put up nine-point efforts in back-to-back games, and this week’s NFC East matchup could easily turn into a shootout.

OUT: Robbie Gould, Bears
Poor Robbie Gould. The Bears kicker has been the definition of accuracy this season (89.3% success rate) but he’s seen his opportunities dwindle now that Caleb Hanie is the quarterback and Matt Forte is injured. Gould hasn’t hit double-digit fantasy points since Week 10, and he has just seven points over the last two games. Seattle’s D has been on a roll lately, so Chicago might have major issues moving the football.

Defenses

IN: Dolphins
Miami’s defense has been solid recently, and last week they put up some good numbers (two turnovers, four sacks and just 239 yards allowed) in a losing effort to the Eagles. This week the Dolphins are taking on a Bills team that is having all kinds of problems scoring, especially with Fred Jackson out for the season. Miami can force turnovers and is always a threat to take one to the house.

OUT: Jets
Last week the Jets D was stifling, holding the Chiefs to just 10 points and recording a season-high five sacks. But that was Kansas City, not Philadelphia. The Eagles have a ton of weapons at their disposal, and with Michael Vick back the offense takes on a whole new look. Only one defense has hit double digit fantasy points against Philly in the last month, and New York’s rushing defense will be put to the test while trying to contain Vick and LeSean McCoy.

Ray Rice has a delicious matchup against the 30th ranked Colts run defense.

Grab your Jiffy Pop and favorite brand of peanuts, and stock up on donuts. It’s almost fantasy playoff time for the majority of leagues that qualify four teams for the playoffs, and those of you in leagues that qualify six teams start the second season Sunday.

So for most of you, this is the final playoff push, and the week that crushes dreams, creates nightmares, and starts the holiday season with either elation or despair. If you’re like me, your entire existence hinges on the fate of a pretend team made up of real people that plays its pretend games solely in the dark isolation of the Internet. Don’t judge me.

This is the second week for our new composite rankings of quarterbacks, running backs, tight ends, and wide receivers, and we’ve made a slight line change from last week, inserting Yahoo’s Brandon Funston. Remaining in the lineup are ESPN’s Matthew Berry, NFL.com’s Michael Fabiano, and Dave Richard of CBSSports.com.

Quarterbacks

It’s a strong/sad statement on how weak New England’s secondary has become when three of our four experts rank Grossman ahead of Flacco, and the Ravens quarterback isn’t exactly facing a staunch pass defense either (the Colts are allowing 242.9 yards per game).

Placing the wayward but strong-armed Grossman ahead of Flacco at the bottom end of these rankings is the right call, especially with Ray Rice on fire. He’ll likely roll over Indy early, leaving Flacco to do little other than hand off the rest of the game and kill clock. If you’re in a league that starts two quarterbacks, Grossman is a quality flex play, and he should benefit from a healthier Santana Moss who’s getting back into a rhythm after missing a month.

Running Backs

The wide split on Gore is a product of his habitual bumps and bruises. Jim Harbaugh can spout off all the PR-friendly quotes he wants, but with the NFC West clinched and his team rolling, there’s little reason to risk a needless injury for the highly-talented but still notoriously brittle Gore.

Also, through just two weeks of this post it’s become clear that Richard is the risk taker, and that’s fine. But ranking Rice fourth and out of the top three is insane. Ravens offensive coordinator Cam Cameron has remembered that Rice exists, and last week he torched Cleveland’s 31st ranked run defense for 204 rushing yards and a touchdown.

Next on deck is the Colts’ 30th ranked run defense that’s ahead of the Browns in average weekly rushing yards allowed by just seven yards.

Wide Receivers

Again keeping it entertaining, Richard rolls with Welker down in his No. 12 slot. Now, we understand that DeAngelo Hall is an above average corner, although he’s not elite. And we understand that Tom Brady has increasingly grown fond of Rob Gronkowski, which left Welker in a secondary role briefly between Weeks 10 and 11, and he had just 68 receiving yards between those two games.

Since that dry spell Welker has 225 yards and two touchdowns. The Redskins’ secondary is effective, and they’re allowing just 208.8 passing yards per game, so expecting a drop in value this week for Welker is reasonable. But a tumble down to 12th is way too far.

Tight Ends

This is again the area of near consensus, and I mostly agree with the above picks.

My only nitpick is Jermaine Gresham, the Bengals tight end who’s facing a vastly improved Texans secondary, and he could be dropped down at least two spots so that he’s below Jake Ballard and Owen Daniels.

It's no surprise that Rob Gronkowski tops the tight end rankings, but there are plenty of surprises elsewhere.

For the first 12 weeks of the fantasy season, you’ve dutifully followed every inch of player movement in this weekly post. Either that, or you’ve done the exact opposite, and you’ve probably been much better off doing the latter than the former.

Since the mental matter inside four skulls is far better than just one, we’re tweaking this post again and trying something different for the rest of the season. Instead of giving you just one perspective (umm, me) as you do research to set your weekly lineups, you’ve going to get four, with a little editorializing from me sprinkled in.

We’ve made composite rankings, which is an intelligent-sounding word that’s defined as “a thing made up of several parts or elements.” I googled that myself, and I also spent far too long looking at far too many numbers to assemble the rankings you see below.

The four fantasy pundits used are ESPN’s Matthew Berry, Michael Fabiano and Dave Dameshek from NFL.com, and Dave Richard of CBSSports.com. The players’ opponents are shown in brackets, and the average ranking for each player is tallied in the far right column.

Don’t worry, change is good, and the risk takers out there will quickly befriend Richard, who’s never seen an against the grain ranking he doesn’t like. Just look at his wide receivers…

Quarterbacks

Philip Rivers’ plunge continues. Three months ago I would have wagered at least four paychecks on the Chargers quarterback if I was asked to bet on who would have the better fantasy season between him and Tim Tebow.

Now, with the fantasy playoffs a few weeks away, Rivers is on the same level as Matt Moore and Vince Young. The only pain worse than a high draft investment in the man who makes the best Philip Rivers face is a high August price paid for Chris Johnson.

Running Backs

The widest split here is on Ryan Mathews, and we can blame that on several factors. First and foremost, there’s Mathews’ simple inability to stay healthy, which has led to massive fluctuations in production. Sure, last week he exploded for 137 rushing yards, but combined over his previous three games he had just 128.

Then there’s the Jaguars’ run defense, which has been one of the few bright spots in Jacksonville this year. It’s a unit that allowed 4.7 yards per carry last year, and has that number down to an even four in 2011.

Lastly, there’s the Rivers factor. Mathews was given the opportunity to run often last week because San Diego remained close with Denver before losing 16-13. But prior to last week Rivers turned the ball over seven times over his last five games (five interceptions, two lost fumbles). That leads to points going the other way, and more of Mathews either watching or blocking as San Diego tries to play catch up.

Wide Receivers

The differences in opinion here are glaring, but the most notable fluctuations involve Victor Cruz and Larry Fitzgerald. With Fitz I’ll side with Berry, who’s high on a fantasy stud that will face Mike Jenkins as he returns from a hamstring injury that’s kept him out since Week 8.

I’m not sure how it’s possible to rank Cruz much lower than third, and even that may be too low. He’s set to feast on the 31st ranked secondary after racking up 285 receiving yards and three touchdowns over the last two weeks.

Tight Ends

This was the closest to a consensus, with Vernon Davis causing the most trouble. That’s understandable, because while he is getting into the end zone (two touchdowns over his last three games), Davis’ yards per game is down a bit this year, and just enough that it’s noticeable.

He’s averaging 44 yards per game, and in 2010 he finished at 57.1.

Here’s who I like and who I don’t like for Week 13:

Quarterbacks

IN: Matt Moore, Dolphins
Moore has been a pleasant surprise for Dolphins fans and fantasy owners alike — he’s coming off a good game against the Cowboys (288 yards) but has issues hanging onto the football (three fumbles in Week 12 but lost only one). Moore has been effective throwing down field, is building a rapport with Brandon Marshall and on Sunday he should take advantage of a Raiders pass defense that is ranked 19th in the league. Oakland is giving up the fifth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks this season.

OUT: Matt Ryan, Falcons
Ryan has been on a roll lately, putting up more than 250 yards in four straight games. But that came against the likes of the Vikings, Titans, Saints and Colts, defenses that don’t really scare anyone. But this week the Falcons will face the league’s top-ranked D in the Texans. Houston is giving up just shy of 176 passing yards per game so don’t be surprised if Atlanta uses a lot more Michael Turner (and therefore a lot less Matt Ryan) this week.

Running backs

IN: BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Patriots  
There’s always a debate on whether or not to play Green-Ellis because of New England’s potent passing game, but don’t hesitate to put him in your lineup for Week 13. The Law Firm has combined to score 30 fantasy points in the last two weeks and is coming off a two touchdown performance against the Eagles. The Colts can’t stop much of anything these days — the defense is giving up around 150 rush yards per game. The Pats will score a lot of points on Sunday, as will BJGE.

OUT: Steven Jackson, Rams
Not only has Jackson been struggling (just 106 rushing yards combined over the last two games) but next up for the Rams is a date with the 49ers and their top-ranked rush D (75.5 yards per game). This is a horrible matchup. San Fran is giving up the least fantasy points to running backs — only three rushers have hit double-digit points against them. Plus, the unit still hasn’t allowed a rushing touchdown this season. Jackson may pick up some yards (via the run or pass) but temper your expectations.

Wide Receivers

IN: Percy Harvin, Vikings
With Adrian Peterson out Week 12, Harvin became the main offensive weapon for the Vikings and boy did he rise to the occasion — he had 95 yards receiving and a touchdown, returned a kickoff 104 yards and was also taking handoffs. But even with Peterson in the lineup, Minnesota was starting to involve Harvin more (he’s averaging almost seven catches per game over the last three weeks). AD could return Sunday (how limited will he be?) but it’s still safe to ride with Harvin.

OUT: Stevie Johnson, Bills
Johnson had a great stay on Revis Island last week (eight receptions for 75 yards and a touchdown) but will he be able to build on that performance? That was only his second touchdown in the last eight weeks, and prior to Week 12 he had just four receptions total in his last two games. It might be difficult for Johnson to put up big numbers on elite cornerbacks in back-to-back weeks (Cortland Finnegan will get the assignment Sunday). To boot, the Titans are giving up the fourth-fewest fantasy points to wideouts this season.

Tight Ends

IN: Fred Davis, Redskins
After three sub-par weeks, Davis had a bounce back game against the Seahawks in Week 12, where he found the end zone for the first time since Week 7. The Jets have had issues slowing down tight ends this year (giving up the fourth-most fantasy points to the position) and it’s likely that Darrell Revis will be covering Santana Moss, which means things could really open up for Davis on Sunday.

OUT: Dustin Keller, Jets
On the other hand, Keller might be in for a tough afternoon. The Jets tight end is coming off a two-touchdown performance but unlike the Bills, the Redskins have been able to stop tight ends this season (like Jason Witten and Vernon Davis). Last week aside, Keller hasn’t been putting up good numbers — that was his first touchdown since Week 2 and he hasn’t topped the 64-yard mark since Week 3. Might be a good idea to find another tight end this week.

Kickers

IN: Robbie Gould, Bears
Gould has been one of the most consistent kickers this season — he has only two misses and is perfect from 50 yards or more. Quarterback Caleb Hanie proved that he could move the football in Week 12 and after another week of practice, he could be even more effective on Sunday. The Bears will be able to score on Kansas City. Plus, the weather could be a factor in Chicago this weekend, which could mean more field goal attempts.

OUT: Jay Feely, Cardinals
Feely is coming off a solid performance in Week 12 which saw him put up 11 points on the Rams. But be warned, because that was Feely’s only double-digit game of the season. The Cardinals offense has been inconsistent to say the least and on Sunday they will be hosting a tough and well-rested Cowboys team. Feely won’t come close to last week’s numbers so you should keep him on the bench.

Defenses

IN: Cowboys
Speaking of the Cowboys, recently their secondary has been susceptible to the big play but on Sunday they could get a big boost if corner Mike Jenkins is able to return. Cardinals QB Kevin Kolb will be back under center, but who knows how effective he will be after missing the last four weeks with a toe injury. Opposing defenses are scoring an average of 13 points when facing the Cardinals and sacks are always a possibility with DeMarcus Ware lurking across the line. Points might be hard to come by for Arizona.

OUT: Saints
Even though they came away with the victory in Week 12, the Saints gave up 465 total yards of offense to the Giants, including 392 through the air (although most came in garbage time). The Lions are coming off a disappointing Thanksgiving Day performance against the Packers and will be looking to rebound. Detroit can score in bunches (especially with that passing game) so it might be best to give the New Orleans D a break this week.

Here’s who I like and who I don’t like for Week 12:

Quarterbacks

IN: Tim Tebow, Broncos
Despite not being a “traditional quarterback” Tebow is still getting it done from a fantasy perspective. The former Gator has won four of his five starts and has at least two touchdowns in three of those games. The Chargers (who rank 28th in the league in points allowed) have been struggling to stop anything these days and are giving up almost 19 fantasy points to QBs this season. Tebow came off the bench and scored two touchdowns against San Diego back in Week 5, and you can expect another good game from him Sunday.

OUT: Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers
Big Ben has been on quite a roll these days, but unfortunately he now has an injured thumb on his throwing hand to contend with. Roethlisberger has had a week to rest but will be wearing a splint when the Steelers face the Chiefs on Monday night. Kansas City’s defense doesn’t scare anyone but the big question is how much will that thumb impact Roethlisberger’s performance? Don’t be surprised if Pittsburgh relies more on the running game in Week 12 (and that Steelers defense knows a thing or two about putting points on the board).

Running Backs

IN: Chris Johnson, Titans
Just when you thought CJ2K was finally turning things around, he has his worst game of the season (28 total yards with just 13 coming on the ground in Week 11). Johnson has struggled against good rush defenses, but the Bucs are not one of those teams. Tampa has allowed the second-most fantasy points to running backs this year, including an astonishing 107 combined over the last three weeks. Look for Johnson to rebound in a big way in Week 12.

OUT: Reggie Bush, Dolphins
It looks like Miami has finally figured out the best way to use Bush and he’s rewarded his team by scoring a touchdown in each of the last three games (he has four in that span). The Cowboys rush defense presents a whole new challenge though.  The unit may be giving up over 101 yards per game on the ground, but Dallas has allowed only six rushing touchdowns this season. Bush is a dual back who could still rack up the yards, but the odds are against him finding the end zone for a fourth straight week.

Wide Receivers

IN: Brandon Lloyd, Rams
Much like Bush, Lloyd has been on a bit of a roll lately. Sure, the Rams receiver has averaged just 62 yards over the last four weeks, but he’s found the end zone in three of those games. The wideout is developing a nice rapport with quarterback Sam Bradford and has put up at least seven fantasy points in every single game since coming over from Denver five weeks ago. Lloyd has a nice matchup this week in the Cardinals, who are allowing the eighth-most fantasy points to wide receivers this season.

OUT: Torrey Smith, Ravens
Smith is coming off an outstanding game last week against Cincinnati (165 yards and a touchdown) which saw him win AFC player of the week honors. But don’t expect a similar performance from him in Week 12. There’s a lot of risk in playing explosive receivers like Smith week in and week out, and next up for the Ravens is an opportunistic 49ers squad that knows how to clamp down on defense. This should be a grinding, hard-hitting game and points will be hard to come by, so don’t be surprised if Baltimore avoids the deep ball, which is where Smith excels.

Tight Ends

IN: Brandon Pettigrew, Lions
After a lengthy absence, Pettigrew finally found the end zone last week for the first time since Week 6. The tight end is more comfortable in the friendly confines of Ford Field (he has touchdowns in three of his last four home games) and this week the Lions are hosting a porous Packers secondary, which gave up 132 yards to Kellen Winslow last week. We could see a shootout between Green Bay and Detroit in Week 12 and Pettigrew should be a good goal-line target for Matthew Stafford.

OUT: Fred Davis, Redskins
The tight end’s production has been seriously hampered by Washington’s inability to put points on the board over the last few weeks. Davis hasn’t had more than 50 yards in any of the last three games (just eight fantasy points combined) and hasn’t scored a touchdown since Week 7. The Redskins are in Seattle this week to face a Seahawks D that is giving up the ninth-most fantasy points to tight ends, but I don’t think that’s enough to put Davis in your lineup.

Kickers

IN: Olindo Mare, Panthers
Carolina’s offense got back on track last week against Detroit and Mare was a big beneficiary of the outburst leaving the Lions with nine points. In Week 12 the Panthers have another juicy matchup and should be able to do some damage against the lowly Colts. Indianapolis is giving up almost nine fantasy points to kickers on the season, so there’s a good chance Mare will reach double digits for the fourth time this year.

OUT: Neil Rackers, Texans
Rackers has been one of the most consistent kickers this season and the only reason he makes the “out” list is because of Houston’s quarterback situation. It’s been almost two years since Matt Leinart played an NFL game so who knows what you’re going to get from him. Leinart may have issues converting in the red zone or he may struggle to move the ball period on Sunday. Either way, there’s too much uncertainty to play Rackers with any confidence.

Defenses

IN: Bengals
Cincinnati’s secondary has suffered since losing Leon Hall (the defense overall has just 20 fantasy points combined in the last three games) but a visit from Cleveland could be the perfect cure. The Browns haven’t scored more than 14 points in any of their past five games and have passed the 20-point plateau just once this season. The Bengals D has performed much better at home (averaging more than 10 fantasy points) so this squad is worth a gamble in Week 12.

OUT: Giants
New York gave up just 17 points and picked off Vince Young three times in a losing effort to the Eagles in Week 11 but this week the team is heading to New Orleans to face the high-flying (and well-rested) Saints. The Giants have not been getting to the quarterback with any regularity lately (only five sacks in the last three games) and are having issues stopping the run.  Opposing defenses have not had a lot of success against the Saints, averaging just five points against that explosive offense.

So, how’s life without Jay Cutler and Matt Schaub treating you? How about Ahmad Bradshaw and Darren McFadden (still), and now Adrian Peterson and Fred Jackson?

To soften the blow of that pain, our fantasy overlords have given us a batch of brutal running back matchups this week. But first, let’s see which healthy quarterback will disappoint us in Week 12.

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