Sometimes when I write things, I look back on those things less than a day later and want to change them. Quickly.
That’s not because the words I wrote were false, and it’s not because they lacked reasoning or logic. It’s because there are times — somewhat rare times — when a storyline develops so much and so quickly that in hindsight, a different conclusion is needed.
As I sit here now looking at what I wrote yesterday regarding Maurice Jones-Drew and my assessment of that ongoing draft disaster, I’m still not entirely sure that I want to dramatically change my final advice to take him early in the second round, but then make sure that you grab someone like a Reggie Bush in the mid rounds, and also run over old ladies to get Rashad Jennings.
And the fact that I’m unsure, and we’re all very unsure, is the real problem here.
Maurice Jones-Drew isn’t even sure where you should draft Maurice Jones-Drew. During a fantasy teleconference last night the noted fantasy addict who also plays real football did little to give you confidence if you’re thinking of taking a risk on him.
From Will Brinson:
“A lot of people were scared last year with me coming off the knee injury but that obviously panned out well,” MJD said. “So if you’re scared to draft than be scared, that’s your choice. I understand that when it’s time to play, it’s time to play. So it’s up to you, you have to do what you want and we’ll see how it pans out from there.”
He promised to draft himself first in his fantasy league too. Surely that will be central to his negotiations with Shad Khan.
I also wrote yesterday that as each day passes without a positive development on the Jones-Drew front, his stock will continue to plummet. That should be modified to each half day, or maybe even every hour.
If Jones-Drew doesn’t have confidence that he’ll be playing and producing at a level on par with previous elite fantasy seasons, then how can you? Toss in the introduction of a new head coach and a new system that MJD would have to catch up on quickly if he miraculously reports, and the outlook is even bleaker.
That’s too simple, though, and the quick drop off after the second tier of running backs in about the second or third round is the reason why right now even with all the uncertainty, a gamble on Jones-Drew is still tempting. Yesterday I said that early to mid second round is still reasonable, which is where Jones-Drew’s ADP in NFL.com leagues currently has him slotted.
That’s the most aggressive end of the gamble, but the other end is a slide past the vast collection of running backs in the early rounds who may have a high upside, but they’re surrounded by question marks due to either injuries or time shares. We’re talking about (in this order, likely) Matt Forte, Darren McFadden, Ryan Mathews, DeMarco Murray, Marshawn Lynch, Jamaal Charles, Adrian Peterson, Trent Richardson, Steven Jackson, Michael Turner, and Ahmad Bradshaw.
That’s a hell of a lot of names (11, to be exact), yet still even once we get to the Frank Gore nightmare platoon and other ilk of similar high risk, Jones-Drew would be a late third-round pick in a 12-team league, and he’d come off the board in the middle of the fourth round in a 10-team league. So, now is he worth it after we knock him down that far? I still say yes with the clear caveat that you get Jennings too, because the fall at this point in the draft to the likes of Bush is significant when compared to the names above.
This is a question we’ll wrestle with a lot until Jones-Drew finally realizes he has no leverage whatsoever, and reports. In the end, it all comes back to risk tolerance.
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