Tim Couch. Mike Phipps. Brady Quinn. Charlie Frye. Colt McCoy. Spergon Wynn. Luke McCown.
The Cleveland Browns do not have a good history with drafting quarterbacks.
But with two blue-chip quarterbacks expected to be taken in the top five picks of April’s draft, and the Browns currently holding the No. 4 overall pick, many expect Cleveland to once again take a potential franchise pivot early.
Rumors are swirling that Mike Holmgren, Tom Heckert and Pat Shurmur want Baylor quarterback — and Heisman Trophy winner — Robert Griffin III, enough so that, according to NFL.com’s Steve Wyche, they might even consider trading up to the No. 2 spot to ensure that Griffin lands in their lap after the Colts inevitably take Andrew Luck with the top pick.
“Cleveland needs Griffin — and wants him,” league sources told Wyche, “and the Rams will still get their man.” (By that he means that St. Louis would probably still end up with Justin Blackmon with the No. 4 pick.)
The Browns have three of the first 36 picks and six in the first four rounds, so they definitely have the ammo to leap anyone who might consider trading up in an effort to steal Griffin.
There’s no such thing as a sure thing when it comes to hot draft prospects, especially at the quarterback position. But Luck and Griffin are two of the most intriguing signal-calling prospects the league has ever seen in one year. I’m sure there’s a fear among Browns fans that Luck could be this draft’s Peyton Manning while Griffin becomes the Ryan Leaf, and past failed picks surely haunt Clevelanders, but this is a totally different regime than the one that plucked Couch first overall in 1999. Randy Lerner didn’t even own the team then.
And it has to be worth the risk because Colt McCoy simply isn’t getting the job done. In 21 career starts, he’s won just six games while posting a passer rating of 74.5, completing fewer than 60 percent of his passes and throwing as many interceptions as touchdowns. His yards-per-attempt average dropped this year from 7.1 to 5.9, which ranked second-last in the league among qualifying quarterbacks.
Now, McCoy hasn’t received a lot of support. You could argue that more successful recent young quarterbacks like Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco, Sam Bradford, Cam Newton and Andy Dalton have had better supporting casts. That said, he hasn’t looked the part at all two years into his career.
There’s a chance McCoy turns into a decent enough NFL quarterback, but you can’t win nowadays with that. In this league, you need a guy who can chuck it with great success. Could McCoy be a Joe Flacco- or Alex Smith-type player? Sure, but it’s a lot easier to compensate for a so-so roster with a superb quarterback than it is to compensate for a so-so quarterback with a phenomenal roster.
The problem with drafting a franchise quarterback is that a franchise quarterback needs to be available during the draft. Sounds simple, yes, but it never is, a reality that could quickly alter the landscape of the 2012 draft.
So thanks, Landry Jones. As we mentioned in this morning’s links, the Oklahoma Sooners quarterback has pushed aside this year’s draft to return for his senior season, a decision that was also made by USC quarterback Matt Barkley just prior to Christmas. Baylor’s Robert Griffin III hasn’t officially made a decision yet, but Chris Mortensen reported earlier this week that he’s expected to declare before the Jan. 15 deadline.
Jones wasn’t rated nearly as high as Griffin III or Andrew Luck after a sub-par junior season, but he was an option in the back half of the first round, and a target for a QB-needy team picking in the top 10 that’s eager to trade down and solve their problem at the most important position in football.
We can start pumping out the Luck jerseys now in Indianapolis, and if we assume/hope the Browns do something logical at No. 4 and take Griffin III, the team most affected by Jones’ decision will be the Redskins at No. 6. Washington’s franchise quarterback shopping could now go in one of three directions: an aggressive move up to draft Griffin III, a move down to take Ryan Tannehill, or a pile of money being thrown at Matt Flynn during free agency.
Desperate moves for desperate times, one year after four quarterbacks were taken in the top 12.
Flynn now becomes an even more attractive commodity on the open market, and the Packers have more motivation to place the franchise tag on their current backup who just threw for 480 yards and six touchdowns in their season finale against Detroit. Under the franchise designation Flynn could be dangled as trade bait during the draft, and used by the Packers as a tool to improve their weak secondary. There’s a clear risk in forcing a team to take on the $14 million contract awarded by the franchise tag, but with Flynn’s rapidly ascending value and the scarce market, the reward could be a first-round pick.
Beyond Flynn, the quarterback market will be thin and uninspiring. The 49ers will almost surely re-sign Alex Smith after his re-birth under Jim Harbaugh this year. It’s hard to believe Smith is still only 27 years old, which is further motivation for Harbaugh to stick with an arm that clearly fits his system, and a quarterback likely to sign a two-to-three year deal worth at least $8 million. Colin Kaepernick can either wait, or become trade bait himself and start fresh elsewhere.
Jason Campbell is a viable free agent option who had serviceable and slightly above average performances through the first five games of this season before his year ended with a broken collarbone in Week 6. Raiders head coach Hue Jackson has said he’d welcome Campbell back to play behind Carson Palmer, a role that’s ideal from the Raiders’ perspective, but shouldn’t be Campbell’s preference. A slightly above average starter can move down to become a highly trusted backup, but given the desperation for a fresh face elsewhere, Campbell should want to be this year’s Matt Hasselbeck, and capitalize on a market starved for a quarterback savior.
During the post-lockout frenzy, a 36-year-old Hasselbeck signed a three-year deal worth $20 million with Tennessee. The Titans could afford Hasselbeck’s price, but it was still a lofty one for a veteran arm who will likely be paid to start for one year, and then hold Jake Locker’s hand. Campbell is six years younger than Hasselbeck, and he completed 60.6 percent of his passes while throwing for at least 320 yards twice this year. The problem he’ll face is that he’s already been a starter for the only team that could give him the job right away.
There’s little reason for Washington to continue its Rex Grossman experiment, but there’s also little reason for the doggie door to be opened to allow Campbell to crawl back in. The other decisions to be made are in Kansas City and Miami, where an arm of Campbell’s ilk could be brought in to compete with Kyle Orton and/or Matt Moore, two quarterbacks who’ve shown promise this year–particularly Moore–but aren’t viewed as long-term solutions.
Orton is also a free agent, and if he’s trusted to do his best Smith impression with Kansas City’s plethora of high-caliber offensive options healthy next year, then he’ll be re-signed, and more water will be drained from the free agent pool.
By dumb luck the Chiefs may have solved their problem with their waiver claim on Orton, while teams like the Dolphins and Seahawks may not have a franchise QB on their roster, but instead have a capable and trusted arm who provides an opportunity to win a football game.
Grossman and John Beck don’t meet that description, and they’ve demonstrated this year that they’re little more than stop-gap solutions in Washington. But with the free agent pool shallow and the draft pool nearly bone dry after Jones’ decision last night, that gap could become a never-ending dark chasm without an aggressive move for either Griffin III or Flynn.
USC quarterback Matt Barkley, who was considered to be one of the top prospects for the 2012 NFL draft, has decided to go the Matt Leinart route and stay in school. As a result, almost everyone involved stands to benefit…except for quarterback-needy teams not on track to pick early in next April’s draft.
This biggest benefactor, of course, is Baylor quarterback Robert Griffin III, who will now likely emerge as the definitive No. 2 quarterback in the draft, behind Stanford’s Andrew Luck.
The team to land the top pick — likely the Colts — benefits because a thinner group of top-notch quarterbacks might force a team to sell even more of the farm (if not the whole damn thing) in a desperate attempt to trade up and grab Luck or Griffin. So long as Luck and Griffin gain value, so too do their price tags in a trade.
And Barkley presumably benefits by becoming the early favorite to go first overall in the 2013 draft. Of course, he’s also taking a risk that his production won’t drop off and he won’t suffer an injury during his senior season, derailing his future before his big payday.
And of course it should be a given that every other prospect who has already declared for the draft and is slated to be a first-round pick benefits, at least slightly, from the pool becoming a little shallower.
Teams that might stand to suffer from this move include the Raiders, Seahawks, Bills, Dolphins and Redskins, but that net might be cast wider if Barkley’s decision sparks a chain reaction. See, Griffin and Oklahoma quarterback Landry Jones also have yet to declare for the draft with only three years of service under their respective belts.
In fact, Sports Illustrated’s Tony Pauline reported earlier today on Twitter that both Griffin and Jones are leaning toward staying in school, which would severely weaken a draft class that was supposed to be flush with quarterbacks.
It should be noted that Luck still technically has one year of eligibility remaining as a redshirt junior. He walked away from the draft as a surefire top pick a year ago, so there’s no reason why he wouldn’t do the same if the circumstances weren’t to satisfy him this time around.
This could be the beginning of a trend. With the new collective bargaining agreement doing away with $50 million guarantees and gargantuan annual salaries for unproven first-round picks, it’s easy to understand why prospects are thinking twice before rushing into the draft. Because they’re no longer immediately striking the jackpot in the pros, the sense of panic among these players has diminished.
I have to admit I’m a little conflicted. As an NFL fan and blogger, I want to see as much talent as possible in the league, as quickly as possible. But as a sports fan in general and someone who believes that post-secondary education makes our society a better place, it’s refreshing to see more players consider staying on campus for an extra year (or two).
Round 2, pick 35: TCU QB Andy Dalton to the Bengals — Cincinnati passed on a quarterback in Round 1, which I thought was a great decision considering the small gap separating the top quarterbacks from other signal callers in this draft class. There’s a simmering belief that Dalton could turn into a better pro QB than Cam Newton, Blaine Gabbert, Jake Locker and Christian Ponder (all of whom were selected ahead of him). This sends a message to Carson Palmer without financially handcuffing the franchise, which landed the draft’s best receiver on Thursday night.
Round 2, pick 46: Miami OT Orlando Franklin to the Broncos – I’m not just saying this because he’s a Canadian boy. Franklin was considered to be a borderline first rounder. The Broncos weren’t crazy enough to let him slide past 46. With Tim Tebow likely to start from the get-go in his second season, this team needs to shore up the offensive line. Ryan Clady is a hell of a player, but Ryan Harris’ future is in doubt. With Franklin, Tebow’s right side should be protected for many years to come.
Round 2, pick 51: Clemson DE Da’Quan Bowers to the Buccaneers – Only weeks ago, Bowers was widely predicted to be a top-three pick. Nothing’s changed since Bowers’ last game, but more damning medical information about his bad knees scared teams off. In the end, the majority of the league’s teams passed on Bowers twice, which is amazes me considering how productive the guy was in 2010 while dealing with the same knee problems. Even if he might not last 10 years, he’s a safe pick at 51. The Bucs have one of the worst pass rushes in the league, so this is a great pick.
Round 2, pick 53: Oregon State DT Stephen Paea to the Bears — Chicago was in search of a big defensive tackle to replace Tommie Harris, and Paea fits the mold. Like Bowers, Paea might have first-round talent. In fact, some mock drafts had him going to Chicago 29th overall. This could be a big-time steal. Good decision on the team’s behalf to trade into this spot as soon as UNC defensive end Marvin Austin went to the Giants 52nd.
Round 2, pick 60: Miami CB Brandon Harris to the Texans — Another good value pick that also fills a major hole. Only one year ago, the Texans used a first-round pick on cornerback Kareem Jackson. There’s a chance that was a miss, and so with the defensive front seven addressed twice already earlier in the draft, the Texans knew they had to go back to the corner pool. Knowing that Harris’ slide was ridiculous, the Texans packaged together two later picks to take this selection off of New England’s hands. There’s a good chance that’ll pay off.
Round 4, pick 106: Iowa DE Christian Ballard to the Vikings — With Ray Edwards slated for free agency and the defensive line aging, the Vikes were in need of some fresh blood up front. After going offense twice in the first two rounds, I though the Vikes would be in trouble without a third-round pick. But Minnesota was happy to grab the falling Ballard in Round 4 without having to deal away lower picks to jump up. Ballard only dropped this far because he reportedly failed a drug test at the Combine, but I don’t see how a small character concern can completely kill a defensive lineman like him. The versatile Ballard can move inside, too. Love it.
Round 4, pick 113: Ohio State CB Chimdi Chekwa to the Raiders — Let’s face it: Nnamdi Asomugha is likely set to exit Oakland, meaning the Raiders will soon be in need of a new starting corner to pair with Stanford Routt. The super-speedy Chekwa will compete with third-round pick DeMarcus Van Dyke for playing time, but I prefer Chekwa, who might be a better overall playmaker than Van Dyke.
Round 5, pick 145: Oregon State RB Jacquizz Rodgers to the Falcons — I guess I really like Oregon State. Rodgers will replace Jerious Norwood, but he might actually have a much higher ceiling than that. Rodgers is small, but with Michael Turner now 29, a strong rookie campaign could give the 5-foot-6 back a chance to compete for platoon-type reps. Considering that the Lions and Cardinals drafted similar running backs in Round 2, I’d say this is pretty good value for a player with upside like this.
Round 5, pick 162: Fresno State LB Chris Carter to the Steelers — History says the Steelers realize that you can never have too many quality pass rushers. They used their top pick on Cameron Heyward and then grabbed the free-falling Carter in Round 5. Carter might have dropped more than anyone but Bowers — some expected him to go as high as Round 2. Dude had 11 sacks and 16.5 tackles as the WAC defensive players of the year in 2010.
Round 7, pick 207: Southern Illinois CB Korey Lindsey to the Bengals – Cincinnati had a great draft, and Lindsey could be the diamond in the rough. Everything I read about Lindsey is positive. He had 14 picks in his career with the Salukis and has great form. If an injury didn’t keep him out of the Combine, he’d surely have gone way higher than this. Worst-case scenario, he’ll help with depth in the Cincy secondary. Best-case scenario, he’ll emerge as a potential replacement for soon-to-be free agent Johnathan Joseph.
This is the second year in which the first round and the second round of the draft have been separated by about 24 hours (precisely, 22). Last year, the Rams held onto the first pick in Round 2 despite a slew of reported offers and picked Rodger Saffold to start Friday evening. This year, the Patriots hold that pick, and there’s a very good chance they’ve received more than a few calls from teams that have been sweating their situation all night.
So for now, the Pats are on the clock, but there’s a good chance that’ll change. There are a few players available who many expected to be gone by now. Here’s my obviously subjective list of the top 10 players still on the board:
1. TCU QB Andy Dalton: It’s been hard to get a beat on Dalton, but his ceiling his higher than the rest of the quarterbacks on the board. I’m surprised that Jake Locker went ahead of him, and I doubt he’ll last more than a few picks this evening. My prediction: Dalton goes to Buffalo with the 34th pick.
2. Clemson DE Da’Quan Bowers: I realize that there are some serious medical concerns here, but Bowers was too damn productive in college and has too much talent to slide much further. I’m thinking Bowers will go to Cincinnati 35th.
3. North Carolina DT Marvin Austin: He can line up as a 3-4 end or a 4-3 tackle, which should put him in high demand. I wouldn’t be surprised at all if the Patriots selected him with the top pick, assuming they hang onto it. (If they trade it, I expect that team to take Dalton or Colin Kaepernick.)
4. Nevada QB Colin Kaepernick: He’s sort of a Bizarro Dalton. Big, strong and extremely athletic. He and Dalton should both be gone by the time Washington picks 41st.
5. UCLA DE/OLB Akeem Ayers: Another player who New England would gladly select if they stay at 33. He suits their needs perfectly.
6. Arizona OLB Brooks Reed: Reed and Ayers are very similar players, but Ayers is slightly better in coverage. In other words, he has an edge in the versatility category. He’d be a nice fit for a team like Arizona (38th) but I wouldn’t be shocked to see him drop into the 50s.
7. Texas CB Aaron Williams: I really thought he’d go to Pittsburgh late in Round 1, but now he’s without a doubt the best defensive back on the board. The presence of Rahim Moore and Brandon Harris could hurt him a bit, but I still don’t see Dallas passing on him with the 40th pick.
8. Oregon State DT Stephen Paea: There’s your nose tackle at pick 36, Denver.
9. Pittsburgh DE Jabaal Sheard: Although I feel as though he and Georgia defensive end Justin Houston are somewhat interchangeable. Picks 35 through 39 — Cincinnati, Denver, Cleveland, Arizona and Tennessee — are all looking for help in the front seven. I expect Sheard and/or Houston to go in that area.
10. Arkansas QB Ryan Mallett: He might be the best natural passer in the draft, but questions about his character and his mobility have hurt his stock. No way he gets past Washington at 49, but I wouldn’t be shocked if he went to San Francisco at 45 or Oakland at 48. (The ‘Skins also pick 41st and QB-needy teams like the Bills, Bengals and Cardinals could pick him instead of Dalton or Kaepernick earlier in Round 2.)
Just wanted to pass this along in case anybody missed the draft last night.
I thought the commissioner handled a tough situation relatively well, but was also sort of hoping they’d keep loudly chanting despite his attempts to quiet them. Unfortunately, the Alabama tornado topic steered fans in another direction. It’s one thing to drown the guy out when he’s talking about football, but it’s obviously significantly more disrespectful to do so while he discusses a tragedy that has taken lives.
Regardless, it sent a nice message. Everything helps.
So 21 of the 25 prospects who accepted invitations to the draft have been selected, leaving four guys — Randall Cobb, Rahim Moore, Ryan Williams and Mark Herzlich — in the green room. I assume they went home for the night and will be back for the start of Round 2 at 6:00 p.m. ET.
They say it takes two or three years to assess a draft. But in this age, we can’t wait that long. Get your draft grades here, your winners and losers here and even a fashion breakdown here.
There’s a lot going on in the NFL at this very minute. The league is hours away from swinging open the doors and lifting the lockout (at least temporarily) and free agency isn’t far off. Plus, there’s the draft. Having a tough time keeping up with it all? Don’t fret. Brad Gagnon and Sean Tomlinson from theScore.com’s Goal-Line Stand NFL blog are here to hold your hand throughout this evening’s NFL draft at Radio City Music Hall in New York. Keep hitting the refresh button on your browser and enjoy this running commentary designed to complement what’s going down in NYC.
(All times Eastern)
7:15: The Carolina Panthers will officially be on the clock in 45 minutes
Welcome to our live commentary. Tomlinson and I are set up here at the GLS headquarters (my 540 sq. ft. Toronto condo) and I’ve already had to tell Sean twice that he can’t watch the draft in his boxer-briefs. I’ll be here to relay all 32 picks and some instant analysis after each selection is made. Tomlinson will chip in with funny pictures, video and fluff. Once in a while, I might even let him talk about the actual draft.
FYI No. 1: I think the Panthers should select LSU cornerback Patrick Peterson first overall. Sean thinks they should take Missouri quarterback Blaine Gabbert. That despite the fact that we both realize they’re going to inevitably pick bust-in-the-waiting Cam Newton. Here’s my mock draft and here’s Sean’s.
FYI No. 2: We’ll be watching the draft on NFL Network, simply because I can’t handle Chris Berman tipping every pick before it’s delivered. But we’ll keep tabs on what’s happening over at ESPN, too.
Oh, hello there. I wasn’t expecting you. Well now that you’re here, and I’m here, slide on down the virtual GLS couch, grab a bubbly beverage and a slice of pizza, and enjoy a night of NFL celebration free of lockout talk. They won’t talk about the lockout, right?
We’re not sure if any of the talking heads will talk about the labor legalese. Alright, we’re pretty sure, but we know the fans in New York don’t mind giving Roger Goodell a piece of their mind. The NFL commissioner was booed immediately when he stepped to the stage during player introductions, saying “I hear you” before hiding behind a natural disaster.
Somewhere, Donovan McNabb is smiling…
– Sean Tomlinson
7:58: 300 some odd pages says the Eagles are ready
Andy Reid wrote every word in that book. (Editor’s note: Isn’t it fitting that his is so much wider than his cohorts’?)
– Sean Tomlinson
8:07: 1. CAROLINA PANTHERS: AUBURN QB CAM NEWTON
No surprises. But Newton is a massive gamble for the Panthers, especially with so many gifted defensive players available. New head coach Ron Rivera’s coaching career is now linked forever to Newton. I hate this pick, but wish Newton the best. That’s assuming he doesn’t take an offer from the Tigers…
– Brad Gagnon
8:12: Still images of Panthers’ draft party show jubilation, possibly Waldo
Watching John Elway search for a pen that works is far more entertaining.
– Sean Tomlinson
8:15: 2. DENVER BRONCOS: TEXAS A&M OLB VON MILLER
He’s the best edge rusher in the draft, but Denver already has Elvis Dumervil. Miller is undersized and Marcell Dareus would have beefed up a horrible front seven. Denver’s biggest issue is run defense, and they didn’t address that with this pick.
– Brad Gagnon
8:18: Cam Newton just got drafted…and now he’s going on vacation
I have no idea what Cam Newton was thinking by claiming he was going to “go on a much needed vacation” now that the draft was out of the way. Rookies usually report to their new teams almost immediately. I know Newton was trying to be light-hearted in saying that the whole process has been mentally exhausting, but that was not the smartest thing to say considering the questions already surrounding the guy’s work ethic and mentality.
Stupid. Very stupid.
– Brad Gagnon
8:23: 3. BUFFALO BILLS: ALABAMA DT MARCELL DAREUS
Safe pick from the Bills, but Patrick Peterson was the best player on the board and they already have a capable nose tackle in Kyle Williams. It could have been worse based on their draft history, but this is still a “meh” pick.
– Brad Gagnon
8:26: 4. CINCINNATI BENGALS: GEORGIA WR A.J. GREEN
And the Chad Ochocinco era is over. This was one of the most mock drafted picks in the last month. I knew Mike Brown wouldn’t want to give in to Carson Palmer that easily. And for the first time this entire draft, Tomlinson and I have been right with our mock drafts. Now, Patrick Peterson is on the board for the Cardinals. This might be a very popular trade spot.
– Brad Gagnon
8:28: Marcell Dareus was really drafted for his pass coverage
Sure, he had 11 sacks over his last two seasons at Alabama, but Dareus was really coveted because of his hands. All of our mocks are now ruined because of this oversight.
– Sean Tomlinson
8:33: 5. ARIZONA CARDINALS: LSU CB PATRICK PETERSON
Cornerback wasn’t a big need, but Peterson is too good to pass up. The Cardinals will pair him up with Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and have one of the best young corner duos in the league. Now they have to get a quarterback in Round 2 or sign a free-agent signal caller. Meanwhile, the Falcons have traded up to the six spot, presumably to draft Julio Jones. Interesting.
– Brad Gagnon
8: 35: Peterson’s coming, protect your loved ones
No one is safe when Peterson is in the defensive backfield. He’ll take your football, your wife, and your kids.
– Sean Tomlinson
8:38: 6. ATLANTA FALCONS: ALABAMA WR JULIO JONES
The first big surprise of the draft isn’t the pick, but the team. The Falcons swap first round picks with the Browns and give them a second-rounder, a fourth-rounder, a 2012 first-rounder and a 2012 fourth-rounder (wow) for the right to draft the electric Alabama receiver. This is the Falcons making a statement and getting more help for their franchise quarterback, but they’d better hope they can improve the pass rush later in the draft or in free agency.
From a fantasy perspective, this changes everything in Atlanta.
– Brad Gagnon
8:44: 7. SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS: DE ALDON SMITH, MISSOURI
The first Missouri player off the board is not Blaine Gabbert, and the slide begins? This pick is shocking. The Niners must have fallen in love with Smith, who many figured would have gone at least four or five picks later. I had going 30th in my last mock draft. Still, I don’t mind the pick. He’ll immediately help a rather pedestrian pass rush as a rush linebacker in San Fran.
– Brad Gagnon
8:46: 8. TENNESSEE TITANS: WASHINGTON QB JAKE LOCKER
And so the Gabbert slide is officially underway as the Titans skip the Missouri quarterback for Locker. Hey, only a year ago this guy was considered to be the best player in the 2010 draft class before opting to stay in school. He’s athletic as hell, but he makes bad decisions. Locker will have to be coached up in Tennessee, but I think the Titans are tired of generic defensive ends in the first round. This is an intriguing choice.
– Brad Gagnon
8:50: Aaron Rodgers knows how you feel, Blaine
Yes, this may be a little premature, but the early images of a red-faced Blaine Gabbert in the green room shaking his head already remind us of a certain Super Bowl winning quarterback who went through a free fall of his own five years ago. Aaron Rodgers feel all the way to the 25th overall in the 2005 draft, and was taken just one spot ahead of Jason Campbell.
Campbell is now struggling to keep his career alive in Oakland, while Rodgers finished with 3,922 passing yards last year and 28 touchdowns. Gabbert was a consensus top 10 pick, and Washington should throw him a lifeline.
– Sean Tomlinson
9:00: 9. DALLAS COWBOYS: USC OT TYRON SMITH
Adding protection for Tony Romo never hurts. The Cowboys were reportedly split between Smith and Anthony Castonzo. I’m a bit surprised by this because I kept hearing that Castonzo was more NFL-ready, but this is a good, safe pick. It was clear that the Cowboys wanted to trade down, as Jerry Jones and Co. sat there waiting for something to happen in the war room. In the end, I guess they had to settle for Smith in the No. 9 spot, rather than Smith or Castonzo five or 10 picks later. Now it’s time for the Redskins to put Blaine Gabbert out of his misery and end the Donovan McNabb era.
That’s right, the Jaguars. David Garrard is officially on notice after the Jags traded up six spots to select the select the sliding Gabbert. They must have really loved Gabbert, because they could have had a guy like Andy Dalton in half an hour.
– Brad Gagnon
9:09: 11. HOUSTON TEXANS: WISCONSIN DE J.J. WATT
The Texans keep building the front seven of that new 3-4 defense. Watt should be a nice complement to Mario Williams, which in turn will help the poor Houston secondary. Prince Amukamara was an option, but the Texans can address their defensive back problem later.
– Brad Gagnon
9:12: Anyone else think Gabbert looks like Sunshine from Remember The Titans?
Now we just need to see if Gabbert sings, dances, insults mothers, and accepts dap…
– Sean Tomlinson
9:21: 12. MINNESOTA VIKINGS: FLORIDA STATE QB CHRISTIAN PONDER
I’m feeling great about taking six quarterbacks with the top 16 picks of the last mock draft. Four quarterbacks are now off the board, which means teams will soon be desperately jumping into Round 1 to get a signal caller. I think. Ponder will likely compete with Tarvaris Jackson for the starting job. I prefer Dalton, but I also wouldn’t be surprised if Ponder panned out nicely.
– Brad Gagnon
9:25: 13. DETROIT LIONS: AUBURN DT NICK FAIRLEY
Whaaaaaaat? The Lions don’t have more important needs than defensive tackle? This pick is baffling to me. I understand that Fairley was probably the best player available, but this is just too much. Yes, the Lions will now have their very own version of the Williams Wall with Ndamukong Suh and Fairly up front. I also understand the philosophy of building from both lines out, but this is a team that could have used more protection for Matt Stafford here. How about Anthony Castonzo, who wouldn’t have been a reach at all at 13? I don’t get it. But at the same time, I’m excited to see Suh and Fairley together with Kyle Vanden Bosch.
– Brad Gagnon
9:28: Vikings draft Kacie McDonnell’s boyfriend
If I’ve learned anything from generic, cookie-cutter football movies with scripts that took seven minutes to write, it’s that the quarterback always gets the best hottest girl in school. It’s science.
Let’s meet McDonnell, the arm prize of Christian Ponder. The Vikings really did their research…
– Sean Tomlinson
9:35: 14. ST. LOUIS RAMS: NORTH CAROLINA DE ROBERT QUINN
A benign brain tumor and missing the 2010 season might have hurt Quinn’s draft stock. But as Mike Mayock keeps pointing out, he was 19 years old the last time we saw him play a live game. He’s an incredible athlete with a ton of upside, and he didn’t miss the 2010 season because of drugs or something to worry about long term. I think this could end up being a steal for the Rams at 14. They now have two great bookend pass rushers in Chris Long and Quinn. At this early stage, I’d put Quinn right behind Von Miller in a rookie-of-the-year pool.
– Brad Gagnon
9:38: 15. MIAMI DOLPHINS: FLORIDA C MIKE POUNCEY
Mike wanted to be drafted higher than his brother, but it only probably happened because of his brother. There’s a belief that Mike isn’t as good as Maurkice, but this is a pretty crappy draft pool so I guess Mike being selected three spots ahead of his brother isn’t a massive surprise.
– Brad Gagnon
9:30: Those Pouncey brothers are really close
There are certain moments in life that require close contact between males, but we’re not being drafted into a league filled with macho, brutish men is one of them.
– Sean Tomlinson
9:47: 16. WASHINGTON REDSKINS: PURDUE OLB RYAN KERRIGAN
The Purdue defensive end will have to stand up in Washington’s 3-4 defense, but I think that Brian Orakpo/Kerrigan combo should be pretty stellar. Now that the pass rush is taken care of, the ‘Skins have to use a second-round pick on a quarterback to compete for the starting job.
– Brad Gagnon
9:50: 17. NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS: COLORADO OT NATE SOLDER
The Pats need help at offensive tackle. Solder happens to be one. That is all.
– Brad Gagnon
9:53: Nate Solder is a very strong man
Thanks for that in-depth analysis Brad. Please stop drinking that $2 wine that’s inexplicably sitting beside a bottle of vinegar on your kitchen counter.
Anyways, this Solder character is one of the strongest men in the human race. So strong that he can knock another man down, penetrating with ease through his opponent’s padded tackling shield apparatus.
– Sean Tomlinson
10:04: 19. NEW YORK GIANTS: NEBRASKA CB PRINCE AMUKAMARA
Now here’s a potential steal. I love Prince. He’s big and athletic and fast and looks nice in that suit (it’s been a long night). The Giants upgrade a solid secondary with a guy who, not long ago, was a top-10 pick in mock drafts worldwide.
The Giants will now have to spend a good chunk of the rest of the draft upgrading the offensive line.
– Brad Gagnon
10:14: 20. TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS: IOWA DE ADRIAN CLAYBORN
Considering the problems the Bucs are having with Aqib Talib, this is a big pick. The Bucs keep building a front seven that struggled during Gerald McCoy’s rookie season. They recorded only 26 sacks last year and didn’t do much to stop the run. There were several big-name pass rushers available here, and I’m a bit surprised the Bucs didn’t go with Cameron Jordan or Muhammad Wilkerson.
– Brad Gagnon
10:18: C’mon Adrian! This is unacceptable!
That’s the bio currently showing on Adrian Clayborn’s twitter account, and it’s been at least five minutes since he became an NFL employee. Did the Bucs know that he’s this lazy? Very poor draft homework here by Tampa Bay GM Mark Dominik.
– Sean Tomlinson
10:24: 21. CLEVELAND BROWNS: BAYLOR NT PHIL TAYLOR
I figured Taylor would go in this spot, but to the Chiefs. KC and Cleveland swap picks and the Browns add a mountain of a man inside to replace Shaun Rogers. Nice pick.
– Brad Gagnon
10:26: 22. INDIANAPOLIS COLTS: BOSTON COLLEGE OT ANTHONY CASTONZO
Lucky Colts. A lot of prognosticators had Castonzo going in the top 10, so Indy has finally addressed that need at tackle while drafting the best player left on the board (depending, obviously, on who you ask). Another nice pick.
– Brad Gagnon
10:31: 23. PHILADELPHIA EAGLES: BAYLOR OL DANNY WATKINS
Don’t tell Watkins about Tony Mandarich. The last time a Canadian was drafted this high, it was The Incredible Bust. The British Columbia boy is extremely versatile, so he should help give a shaky Eagles line some depth right away. Long term, he might be a quality starting tackle. He can play inside, too.
– Brad Gagnon
10:42: Danny Watkins can now afford to upgrade his vehicle
10:48: 24. NEW ORLEANS SAINTS: CAL DE CAMERON JORDAN
Talk about a perfect fit for the Saints. Jordan will immediately boost a so-so pass rush while pairing with Will Smith. Great value at 24, too.
And so now the Seahawks are on the clock. A lot of peeps have them taking a quarterback, and Andy Dalton is still on the board. If it’s not him, though, there are some great players on the board. Jimmy Smith immediately comes to mind. Lots of defensive ends, too. Oh, and Mark Ingram. In other words, I haven’t got a clue.
– Brad Gagnon
10:53: 25. SEATTLE SEAHAWKS: ALABAMA OT JAMES CARPENTER
Bit of a reach, but the premier tackles were already gone. He’ll play opposite Russell Okung, who I don’t think the Seahawks feel great about at this point in time. The way things are going for Andy Dalton and Co., there’s a chance the ‘Hawks will even have a chance to land one of the quarterbacks in Round 2.
— Brad Gagnon
11:04: 26. KANSAS CITY CHIEFS: PITTSBURGH WR JONATHAN BALDWIN
The Ravens passed on their pick, the Chiefs reached for Baldwin, George is dead. Call me back.
– Brad Gagnon
11:08: 27. BALTIMORE RAVENS: COLORADO CB JIMMY SMITH
I’m still not sure why the Ravens passed, but they wouldn’t have picked Baldwin anyway. And they saved a few bucks by selecting Smith one spot later. He has a horrible track record but Baltimore might be perfect for him. A veteran team with guys like Ray Lewis, Ed Reed and Terrell Suggs will take care of him and keep him under control. Love this pick.
– Brad Gagnon
11:13: 28. NEW ORLEANS SAINTS: ALABAMA RB MARK INGRAM
This is the worst pick of the entire first round. Reggie Bush, Pierre Thomas and Chris Ivory are all still on the roster. Thomas just signed an extension, Bush is owed a ton of money and Ivory might be the most talented of the bunch. I don’t care how goof Ingram supposedly is, this is a bad draft pick. The Saints could have continued to build a weak front seven (Cam Jordan doesn’t solve the problem all on his own). I don’t get this.
– Brad Gagnon
11:20: 29. CHICAGO BEARS: WISCONSIN OT GABE CARIMI
With Danny Watkins gone this was going to be Carimi, Derek Sherrod or a defensive tackle like Marvin Austin. Carimi makes sense, and that’s probably it for tackles in Round 1. There’s a chance Carimi supplants Chris Williams as the team’s starting left tackle in no time.
– Brad Gagnon
11:22: If this whole football thing doesn’t work out for Mark Ingram…
There’s a future in golf shot trickery.
Maybe not.
– Sean Tomlinson
11:27: 30. NEW YORK JETS: TEMPLE DE MUHHAMAD WILKERSON
I understand that they could have used an edge rusher, but Wilkerson is a five technique who will line up at defensive end. That’s a good thing, because the Jets are hurting badly at defensive end. And Wilkerson is the kind of guy who can get to the quarterback as well as stop the run. I’m surprised he fell this far.
– Brad Gagnon
11:30: 31. PITTSBURGH STEELERS: OHIO STATE DE CAMERON HEYWARD
They add depth to an already stellar front seven rather than add a potential starter at cornerback. This probably means they’ll make an aggressive effort to re-sign Ike Taylor.
– Brad Gagnon
11:40: 32. GREEN BAY PACKERS: MISSISSIPPI STATE OT DEREK SHERROD
This is an offensive line that sucked badly two years ago. They made improvements in 2010, but they’re up there in age. Sherrod will join Bryan Bulaga as the Aaron Rodgers protection duo of the future.
Two players to watch early tomorrow: Andy Dalton and Da’Quan Bowers.
Thanks for following along. We’ll recap the first round tomorrow and look ahead to the remainder of the draft.
The endless stream of rumours and potential smokescreens percolating today builds excitement and anticipation, acting as a constant IV of draft adrenaline leading up to 8 p.m. ET. But most of the chatter should be sprinkled with at least a few grains of salt.
Unless it’s coming from multiple sources, in which case you write a blog post. Which brings us to this blog post.
We’re trained to expected the unpredictable in NFL drafts, a mantra that will particularly apply to tonight’s proceedings. The more the chatter builds around this draft, the more it seems that two positions in the first round could become hot spots for either trades and/or unexpected moves.
The first is the six hole, which is currently occupied by the Cleveland Browns. A wide array of top offensive and defensive talent has been projected to possibly land in Cleveland, including wide receiver Julio Jones and defensive end Robert Quinn. Those two names–along with Georgia wideout A.J. Green–are also reportedly high on the wishlist of the Atlanta Falcons and New England Patriots.
New England is notorious for trading down in drafts. But that trend could be bucked tonight, as both ESPN and Greg Bedard of the Boston Globe report that the Patriots have discussed a possible trade with the Browns, and have Quinn, Jones, and Patrick Peterson in their crosshairs. During a draft that will only see the trading of picks because of the still lingering lockout, New England has plenty of ammunition with three of the top 33 picks in their possession.
The Falcons are also courting Cleveland, according to Jay Glazer. If they stay at No. 27, it’s widely believed that Atlanta will select a defensive end as insurance behind the effective but injury prone John Abraham. However, Atlanta seems to covet an explosive offensive weapon like Green or Jones to run wild alongside Roddy White.
Glazer reported that Atlanta is trying to move into the top seven, with Cleveland as their main target. Of these two potential deals, New England has a far greater opportunity to sway the Browns with their stockpile of picks, while Atlanta’s chances of moving all the way up from No. 27 seem remote.
Meanwhile, what the Dolphins will do with their 15th overall pick started out as the easiest assumption of the draft. A month ago it was illegal not to have Mark Ingram going to South Beach, but then injury concerns and a general lack of confidence in his ability as a first round pick mounted, and Ryan Mallett started climbing. Mike Pouncey, the only centre likely to come off the board in the opening round, is also a popular target for Miami.
Now there’s a new, far more outlandish challenger: Kyle Rudolph.
Long ago, in the before time, Rudolph wasn’t given much of a chance to be a first-rounder. There’s always been the possibility that he could squeak in at the end with the Falcons (which is where I have him), but that feels like a stretch. Even if the odds remain unlikely, and even if it happens after the Dolphins trade down, the existence of any reliable report sending Rudolph to Miami is notable.
I’m hearing talk that Notre Dame TE Kyle Rudolph is on Miami’s board and a possibility at No. 15, but more likely as a player they like later in the first round as a fallback. Two people have actually told me this. These folks are NFL types, not media. Anyway, the thinking is Rudolph is a stretch the field type player even though he is not a WR. He would be a help to a QB needing a security blanket. The Patriots last year turned their rookie tight ends into very effective weapons.
Getcha popcorn ready. It’s only two hours until Mel Kiper Jr.’s mock draft starts to fall apart.
The fact is, I have little faith in this draft class in general, and so if there’s no one else that floats your boat and you’re in need of a quarterback, why not take one and hope like hell that he can be coached up and turn into Drew Brees?
And so I’m feeling less crazy about my decision to go quarterback heavy in Round 1, especially considering that renowned draft expert Rick Gosselin of the Dallas Morning News has predicted that five QBs will be selected in the top 12:
Five quarterbacks in the top 12: Newton to the Panthers, QB Blaine Gabbert to the 49ers, QB Jake Locker to the Titans, QB Christian Ponder to the 49ers and QB Andy Dalton to the Vikings. This is the most quarterbacks we’ve seen in the top 15 yet.
In 1983, six quarterbacks were taken in the first round. Now, 28 years later, we could make a run at that mark. And while this draft could live up to that one in terms of quantity of quarterbacks, it’ll be hard to measure up in terms of quality. That one had Dan Marino, John Elway, Jim Kelly and Ken O’Brien.
So 21 of the 25 prospects who accepted invitations to the draft have been selected, leaving 
Ohhhh two guys are in there now! 
– Sean Tomlinson
