Archive for the ‘Gambling’ Category

Sherman hand2

The NFL’s Conference Championship Games are here and I’ll be breaking down both of Sunday’s games from a betting perspective. I recommended a pair of wagers in last week’s blog and finished 1-1 ATS, winning with a backdoor cover by the Chargers (thank goodness for onside kicks) and losing with the Panthers against the 49ers. With that being said, I actually had a very strong read on last week’s games. If I had bet on every single side and total using my predicted final scores I would have finished the week 7-1, but unfortunately, that wasn’t the case as I tried to be selective. Anyways, it’s still been a very strong season overall and hopefully I can provide a couple more winners before February’s Super Bowl.

Note: If you follow me on Twitter or have read my blogs in the past, you’re probably well aware that I love Tom Brady, hate Peyton Manning, and despise the 49ers (mainly due to their whiny fans that love   to bitch at me whenever I pick against their team). I have done my best to not let those factors affect my   handicapping of this week’s board. You may see some of those biases come through in my writing, but you can trust that I haven’t let those views influence my judgement whatsoever.

The Nickel Package Record: 49-36-3 ATS

As always, you can check out The Nickel Package podcast. Each week – even through the playoffs - Joe Fortenbaugh from the National Football Post joins me to analyze those picks and provide additional insight. You can subscribe to the podcast on iTunes, listen to the player below or download the MP3 file here.

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The Divisional Round of the NFL Playoffs is here and I’ll be breaking down all of this weekend’s games from a betting perspective. I only recommended one wager last week, and unfortunately, finished 0-1 ATS as the Bengals crumbled at home against the Chargers. In last week’s blog I mentioned that I was having a difficult time handicapping the board, but I did manage to finish 2-1-1 ATS (using closing lines) with my four predictions. I feel slightly more confident in my predictions this week, so hopefully a big rebound is in the cards.

The Nickel Package Record: 48-35-3 ATS

As always, you can check out The Nickel Package podcast. Each week – even through the playoffs - Joe Fortenbaugh from the National Football Post joins me to analyze those picks and provide additional insight. You can subscribe to the podcast on iTunes, listen to the player below or download the MP3 file here.

Recommended Wagers Record: 61-49-3 ATS

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andy dalton again2

The first week of the NFL Playoffs is here and I’ll be breaking down all of this weekend’s games from a betting perspective. After back-to-back winning weeks, I turned in a dud in Week 17, finishing 2-3 ATS on The Nickel Package podcast and 3-4 ATS with my Recommended Wagers. I was a little bit unlucky to lose with Vikings -3, especially since the Vikings were available at an underdog price on Sunday morning, so I’m not really all that disappointed with my ATS mark last week. The Cardinals also probably deserved to beat the 49ers but Jay Feely decided he was going to crap himself on a couple of occasions.

Anyways, there’s no point in living in the past. There are four games on the slate this weekend, and in all honesty, I’m not really in love with any of them. I’ll make my case for the team that I believe to be the right side in each contest, but as of now, I only plan on making one play in the NFL this weekend.

The Nickel Package Record: 48-34-3 ATS (58%)

As always, you can check out The Nickel Package podcast. Each week – even through the playoffs - Joe Fortenbaugh from the National Football Post joins me to analyze those picks and provide additional insight to the games I’ve selected. You can subscribe to the podcast on iTunes, listen to the player below or download the MP3 file here.

Recommended Wagers Record: 61-48-3 ATS (56%)

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mike-shanahan2Week 17 of the NFL is here and I’ll be breaking down all of Sunday’s games from a betting perspective. After a disappointing performance in Week 14, I’ve rebounded nicely with back-to-back winning weeks.  Last week, my plays on The Nickel Package podcast went 4-1 (damn you 49ers!), and I added an additional three plays into my Recommended Wagers to finish 6-2 ATS.

If you read my article last week, you gained a little bit of insight into how I wager on games towards the end of the season. A lot of spreads are inflated because of the “need to win” factor, and it’s very important to recognize that you’ll be paying a premium to wager on teams that can improve playoff positioning or qualify for the playoffs. Don’t assume that a team will win a game just because they need to, and conversely, don’t assume that a team will roll over because the game is meaningless. There were many examples of this last week—Redskins cover against Cowboys, Bills rout the Dolphins, Giants upset the Lions, Eagles destroy the Bears, etc.

I don’t like this week’s board nearly as much as last week’s board. Most of this week’s line value comes with teams that I’m just not interested in betting on because they’ve burned me at some other point this season. That being said, there are definitely a handful of games that catch my eye and I’ll be looking to finish the season with a third consecutive winning week.

The Nickel Package Record: 46-31-3 ATS (59%)

As always, you can check out The Nickel Package podcast, which includes my top five plays in order of confidence. Each week, Joe Fortenbaugh from the National Football Post joins me to analyze those picks and provide additional insight to the games I’ve selected. You can subscribe to the podcast on iTunes, listen to the player below or download the MP3 file here.

Recommended Wagers Record: 58-44-3 ATS (57%)

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Week 15 of the NFL is here and I’ll be breaking down all of Sunday’s games from a betting perspective. After two consecutive winning weeks, I turned in a dud in Week 14. My plays on The Nickel Package podcast went 2-3 ATS, and my ridiculous eight Recommended Wagers went 3-5 ATS. I did get a little bit unlucky with 49ers -2.5 (two point win), so it’s not like it was an abysmal week, but definitely a week to forget.

I’m not a huge fan of this week’s card. You’ll notice a common theme this week with the public wagering heavily on a number of road favorites. Most of these lines are drastically inflated, but even so, it’s hard to make a case for the underdog in many of those games. A lot of the following predictions are simply educated guesses based on all of the information that I’ve looked at—I really don’t have a feel for many of these games. I’m not trying to make excuses here; simply warning you that unless it shows up in my Recommended Wagers, I really don’t have a strong opinion on the game.

As of the time of this writing, there are still uncertainties at quarterback for the Packers and Bears. My breakdown of those games is entirely dependent on who’s starting at quarterback, so I’ll refrain from previewing those games, and instead opt to update them on my Twitter account (@robpizzola) on Sunday morning.

The Nickel Package Record: 39-28-3 ATS (58%)

As always, you can check out The Nickel Package podcast, which includes my top five plays in order of confidence. Each week, Joe Fortenbaugh from the National Football Post joins me to analyze those picks and provide additional insight to the games I’ve selected. You can subscribe to the podcast on iTunes, listen to the player below or download the MP3 file here.

Recommended Wagers Record: 48-40-3 ATS (54%)

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Washington Redskins v New York Giants

Week 14 of the NFL is here and I’ll be breaking down all of Sunday’s games from a betting perspective. I turned in a second consecutive positive week last week, going 3-1-1 ATS on The Nickel Package podcast. I added three other plays to my Recommended Wagers on Sunday morning, but unfortunately I lost two of those three selections, leaving my record at a satisfactory 4-3-1 ATS for the week.

I love the card this week. I should have bolded the word ‘love’ because I have a stupid amount of picks. I never try to limit myself—if I feel there’s an edge in a game, I’ll bet it, so that’s exactly what I’ve done this week. Hopefully that doesn’t backfire and ruin a pretty solid record this season.

As of this writing there are no lines posted on most sportsbooks for the Browns/Patriots or Falcons/Packers games. I’m going to leave those two games out of this week’s blog because there are so many different scenarios that can arise in those games depending on which quarterbacks are in. I’ll provide an update on my Twitter account on Sunday morning once lines are widely available.

The Nickel Package Record: 37-25-3 ATS (59%)

As always, you can check out The Nickel Package podcast, which includes my top five plays in order of confidence. Each week, Joe Fortenbaugh from the National Football Post joins me to analyze those picks and provide additional insight to the games I’ve selected. You can subscribe to the podcast on iTunes, listen to the player below or download the MP3 file here.

Recommended Wagers Record: 45-35-3 ATS (56%)

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cam newton fly2

Week 13 of the NFL is here and I’ll be breaking down all of Sunday’s games from a betting perspective. I turned in a positive week last week, going 3-2 ATS on The Nickel Package podcast and adding one more winner to go 4-2 ATS with my Recommended Wagers. My overall season record is still well above .500 so hopefully I can continue the run this week.

The Nickel Package Record: 34-24-2 ATS (58%)

As always, you can check out The Nickel Package podcast, which includes my top five plays in order of confidence. Each week, Joe Fortenbaugh from the National Football Post joins me to analyze those picks and provide additional insight to the games I’ve selected. You can subscribe to the podcast on iTunes, listen to the player below or download the MP3 file here.

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