Archive for the ‘Gambling’ Category

Case-Keenum

Week 12 of the NFL is here and I’ll be breaking down all of Sunday’s games from a betting perspective. I finished with a positive 3-2 ATS record on The Nickel Package podcast last week, but unfortunately I added a play on the Chargers on Sunday morning to finish 3-3 ATS with my Recommended Wagers. My overall season records are still well above .500 and I really like this week’s board so hopefully I can turn in a strong performance.

The Nickel Package Record: 31-22-2 ATS (58%)

As always, you can check out The Nickel Package podcast, which includes my top five plays in order of confidence. Each week, Joe Fortenbaugh from the National Football Post joins me to analyze those picks and provide additional insight to the games I’ve selected. You can subscribe to the podcast on iTunes, listen to the player below or download the MP3 file here.

Recommended Wagers Record: 37-30-2 ATS (55%)

Read the rest of this entry »

Atlanta @ Tampa Bay

  • Public consensus: 65% on the Falcons, 71% on the over
  • Sharp money on the Buccaneers
  • Weather note: 30% chance of thunderstorms in Tampa Bay
  • Falcons RB Jason Snelling will not suit up following this week’s arrest for marijuana possession
  • Falcons WR Roddy White (shoulder), RB Steve Jackson (toe), and LB Sean Weatherspoon (foot) are all listed as probable and expected to play
  • Falcons TE Tony Gonzalez was limited in practice all week and is questionable with a toe injury
  • Buccaneers DE Da’Quan Bowers is listed as questionable despite practicing on Friday
  • Buccaneers have not covered at home two straight times in their last 42 home games
  • Falcons are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following a loss of more than 14 points.
  • Short rest for the Buccaneers, played on Monday Night Football last week

The wager: Pass, slight lean to the Bucs but no reason to wager on this meaningless game

Read the rest of this entry »

Week 11 betting preview

vincent jackson again2

Week 11 of the NFL is here and I’ll be breaking down all of Sunday’s games from a betting perspective. I turned in a second consecutive sub-par performance last week as I went 3-3 ATS with my Recommended Wagers but only 2-3 ATS with my five selections on The Nickel Package. My overall season records still stand well above .500 but it would be nice to get back on track with a strong Week 11.

The Nickel Package Record: 28-20-2 ATS (58%)

As always, you can check out The Nickel Package podcast, which includes my top five plays in order of confidence for the week. Each week, Joe Fortenbaugh from the National Football Post joins me to analyze those picks and provide additional insight to the games I’ve selected. You can listen or download the MP3 file here.

Recommended Wagers Record: 34-27-2 ATS (56%)

Read the rest of this entry »

rodgers-hurt2

For the first time in a long time, there’s uncertainty at quarterback today for the Packers.

Jacksonville @ Tennessee

• Public consensus: 62% of all wagers on the Titans, 55% on the under

• Sharp money coming in on the Jaguars

• Winless teams coming off of a bye are 28-11 ATS in the last 39 instances

• Titans haven’t been double-digit favorites in any game since 2009

• Jaguars are coming off of a bye week

• Possible look ahead for the Titans? They play Indianapolis on Thursday Night Football

• Jaguars are on a 2-22 straight up slide and a 2-11 ATS slide

The wager: Pass, never seriously considered either side

Read the rest of this entry »

Week 10 betting preview

foles2

Week 10 of the NFL is here and I’ll be breaking down all of Sunday’s games from a betting perspective. Last week was a subpar week as I went 2-3 ATS with my Recommended Wagers. The week felt a lot better than it was because I called an outright Jets’ upset of the Saints, but ultimately, the day soured as it went on. I mistakenly locked in the Bills +3 on Friday when there were early reports that Thad Lewis was going to play; a mistake that I won’t make again. I’m still convinced the Ravens and Texans were the right sides in the other games that I played but a loss is a loss and I’ll move on.

This week’s board is a mixture of games that I either feel very strongly about or have a very minimal opinion on. If you’ve read my blog in the past you know that more often than not I’m an underdog bettor, and I’d advise holding off until Sunday if you’re playing the same dogs as me.

The Nickel Package Record: 26-17-2 ATS (60%)

As always, you can check out The Nickel Package podcast, which includes my top five plays in order of confidence for the week. Each week, Joe Fortenbaugh from the National Football Post joins me to analyze those picks and provide additional insight to the games I’ve selected. You can listen or download the MP3 file here.

Recommended Wagers Record: 31-24-2 ATS (56%)

Read the rest of this entry »

Week 9 betting preview

matt-ryan-dolphins2

Week 9 of the NFL is here and I’ll be breaking down all of Sunday’s games from a betting perspective. Last week was strong as I went 3-1 against the spread on Recommended Wagers and added a Monday Night Football winner on The Nickel Package to finish 4-1 for the week.

I’m finding the board to be much easier to read this week than it was last week, when I had to force a couple of plays to hit my five play quota, but this week, I definitely won’t have that issue.

The Nickel Package Record: 24-14-2 ATS (63%)

As always, you can check out The Nickel Package podcast, which includes my top five plays in order of confidence for the week. Each week, Joe Fortenbaugh from the National Football Post joins me to analyze those picks and provide additional insight to the games I’ve selected. You can listen or download the MP3 file here.

Recommended Wagers Record: 29-21-2 ATS (58%)

Read the rest of this entry »

Week 8 betting preview

Brees dolphins2

Week 8 of the NFL is here and I’ll be breaking down all of Sunday’s games from a betting perspective. Last week was a decent week. I went 3-2 against the spread on The Nickel Package and added one more winner to my Recommended Wagers, finishing 4-2 overall for the week.

This week is a very tough week. I’m obligated to give five plays for the The Nickel Package but I very easily could have limited myself to two or three plays this week. I’ve turned a couple of my leans into plays to satisfy the masses. Also, I’ll make the same suggestion that I made last week—if you’re backing my plays, you’d be best off holding off until game time. Most people will be betting the opposite sides of my wagers, so you’ll likely get the best line value if you wait until late on Sunday.

The Nickel Package Record: 20-13-2 ATS (60%)

As always, you can check out The Nickel Package podcast, which includes my top five plays in order of confidence for the week. Each week, Joe Fortenbaugh from the National Football Post joins me to analyze those picks and provide additional insight to the games I’ve selected. You can listen or download the MP3 file here.

 

Recommended Wagers Record: 26-20-2 ATS (56%)

Read the rest of this entry »