Archive for the ‘Money making’ Category

I finished Sunday with a mediocre 6-7-1 ATS record (using ScoresandOdds.com closing lines), but yesterday actually proved to be one of my most profitable days of the football season, as my recommended wagers went 4-1 ATS. I completely whiffed on my Cardinals pick, but nailed all four of my 1:00 wagers for a solid 11.6-unit profit.

It’s no surprise that I fared so poorly with the rest of my selections. Other than the five games that I picked (+1 more missed wager on the Giants), I didn’t really feel too confident in any other games. For a second straight week, though, a lot of games were decided late in the fourth quarter, and a number of spreads were affected.

Anyways, without further ado, here’s my recap from each game in Week 14.

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After a terrible 3-9 ATS record in Week 12, I rebounded nicely in Week 13, finishing the week 7-5-2 ATS and going 3-2-1 ATS with my recommended wagers. I’m not particularly in love with the board this week. I entered this week with a number of games that I was looking to bet heavily, but oddsmakers have done a good job adjusting the lines and ensuring that I lose all line value.

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Consensus line: Broncos -10/-10.5, total 48.5
Current betting percentage: 74% on the Broncos, 56% on the OVER

Individual Team Trends:

  • Raiders are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 against AFC West opponents.
  • Raiders are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
  • Raiders are 22-45-1 ATS in their last 68 home games.
  • Over is 4-1 in Broncos last 5 road games.
  • Over is 35-16 in Broncos last 51 games overall.
  • Under is 5-1 in Raiders last 6 against AFC West opponents.
  • Over is 7-3 in Raiders last 10 home games.

Head-to-Head Trends:

  • Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Oakland.
  • Over is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings.
  • Broncos are 4-9 ATS in the last 13 meetings.
  • Road team is 7-2 ATS in their last 9 meetings.

After being treated to a quality NFC South Thursday Nighter between the Saints and Falcons last week, we’re back to the norm when the Broncos pay a visit to Oakland to “battle” the Raiders tonight. The NFL should really consider instituting a rule that prohibits AFC West matchups in primetime. They’re awful. But luckily for everyone reading this blog, we’re blessed with the ability to wager on games as terrible as this one.

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After a terrible 3-9 ATS record in Week 12, I rebounded nicely this week, finishing the week 7-5-2 ATS (using ScoresandOdds.com closing lines) and going 3-2-1 ATS with my recommended wagers. Things could have gone a lot differently this week (either good or bad), as there were a number of point spreads that were undecided until late in the game.

Last week, my biggest mistake was trusting teams with poor coaching, and while I lost a play on the Lions this week, I was a miracle touchdown drive away from finishing with a push in that contest. This week, my biggest mistake was shying away from some bets that I felt strongly about early in the week. Oh well, you live an you learn.

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I’m happy to put November behind me after a 3-9 ATS end to the month in Week 12, which came after a 17-7 run through Weeks 10 and 11. I’m still recovering from that epic collapse in San Diego last week and I’ll undoubtedly never think of 4th and 29 the same way again. It was tough to watch those games last week, but I like this week’s card a lot better and I think there are some winners to be had.

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Consensus line: Falcons -3.5, total 55.5
Current betting percentage: 62% on the Saints, 68% on the over

Individual Team Trends:

  • Saints are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 games following a S.U. loss.
  • Saints are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games in November.
  • Falcons are 23-9-2 ATS in their last 34 games following a ATS loss.
  • Falcons are 1-4-2 ATS in their last 7 games in November.
  • Over is 11-1 in Saints last 12 vs. NFC.
  • Over is 5-2 in Saints last 7 road games.
  • Under is 4-1 in Falcons last 5 home games.
  • Under is 14-5 in Falcons last 19 games following a S.U. win.

Head-to-Head Trends:

  • Saints are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.
  • Over is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings.
  • Underdog is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings.

After having to endure some painful Thursday Night Football matchups this season, the NFL schedule makers have finally done right by setting up a great NFC South contest between the Falcons and Saints. Atlanta enters this game coming off of a one-point victory over the Bucs last week, but they could have easily won that game by more if Matt Bryant didn’t piss himself on two separate occasions. Regardless, you can’t help but feel that Atlanta is probably the worst 10-1 team in NFL history. Meanwhile, New Orleans had their playoff push halted by the 49ers with a 31-21 loss at the Superdome.

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After back-to-back winning weeks, I got taken to the cleaners in Week 12. I finished a measly 3-9 ATS (using ScoresandOdds.com closing lines) and to make matters worse, I whiffed on all three of my recommended wagers. This was probably the most painful week I can remember in a long time. Three years ago, I had a week where I only predicted two games correctly against the spread, but that was far easier to swallow than this Sunday’s debacle.

Obviously, I have plenty of excuses for the games that I lost. I was definitely out to lunch on a bunch of my predictions this week, but there were also some bad beats along the way (pictured above). The worst part about this week was that the public took an absolute beating and it just so happened to be in the only week of the season where I was on more public plays than usual.

That’s the definition of orbit right there. Anyways, let’s get to the airing of grievances.

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