Archive for the ‘Money making’ Category

After a strong 8-4 ATS record in Week 10, I followed up with an even better 9-3 ATS mark in Week 11, hitting my first 6* play of the year in the process. Pittsburgh didn’t make it easy, but a win is a win. Hopefully the good times keep rolling this week.

My picks this week are headlined by a pair of 5* selections, making this one of my stronger cards of the season. Let’s get to it.

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NFL Turkey Day betting preview

It’s days like tomorrow that really make me wish I were an American. What can possibly be better than stuffing your face with food, watching a full day of football (with good games for a change), getting plastered, and sweating profusely through your sleep? Nothing. With three games on deck tomorrow I’ll be placing a wager on each one (because I’m sick like that), so here are my thoughts on each game. Read the rest of this entry »

After going 8-4 ATS in Week 10, I was able to follow up with a strong 8-3-1 ATS record in Week 11, including cashing in on three of my five recommended wagers. Most importantly, I was able to cash in on my first 6* recommended play of the year as the Steelers stayed within the number against the Ravens.

As usual, I have plenty of excuses for my losing wagers, so let’s get this started.

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After a great struggle in Week 9, I rebounded nicely overall in Week 10 with an 8-4 ATS record. Unfortunately, three of those four losses came on plays that I used for my recommended wagers, and I was only able to go 3-3 ATS with my six recommended plays. I hit Kansas City +13 against Pittsburgh on Monday night but lost my Thursday night play when I went with the Dolphins over the Bills, so I really don’t ride any momentum into this week.

I will say, though, that I like the board this week. There appears to be a ton of heavy public plays in Week 11 and for the most part, I disagree with the majority of the public’s heavy bets. That’s usually a good thing. There’s also been a couple of major line changes after last week’s action, which creates a number of opportunities to grab some line value with underrated teams. Hopefully this week turns out like I hope it will.

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Consensus line: Bills -2.5 (-115), total 45
Current betting percentage: 68% on the Bills, 51% on the OVER

Individual Team Trends:

  • Dolphins are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games following a S.U. loss.
  • Dolphins are 19-7-1 ATS in their last 27 road games.
  • Dolphins are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a double-digit loss at home.
  • Bills are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 home games.
  • Bills are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
  • Under is 25-9 in Dolphins last 34 road games.
  • Under is 5-0 in Dolphins last 5 games overall.
  • Over is 5-0 in Bills last 5 home games.
  • Under is 10-4-1 in Bills last 15 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.

Head-to-Head Trends:

  • Dolphins are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 meetings.
  • Favorite is 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 meetings.

After the special treats that the NFL had in store on the past two Thursday nights, I gotta say, I’m kind of looking forward to this one…kind of. The AFC East is still very much still up for grabs if Tom Brady gets hit by a snowplow in Massachusetts this winter, so this tilt could possibly have some meaning. Both teams enter tonight’s game riding losing streaks with Miami dropping back-to-back games, and Buffalo having lost three straight and five of their last six.

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Week 10 was a great improvement for me in terms of overall record as I went 8-4 ATS on Sunday. But unfortunately, I lost half of my recommended wagers for a small loss. I really wish I could have a couple of those wagers back, and you can probably guess which games I’m referring to.

After the public’s slaughter of the books last week, you would have went three for five if you blindly bet against the staggering public plays yesterday afternoon (Patriots, Giants, Broncos, Lions, Cowboys).

Anyways, I have plenty of excuses for my incorrect picks this week, so let’s get this started.

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Last week wasn’t a particularly good week for me as I went only 5-7 ATS. I didn’t really have a strong opinion on Monday night’s game and got burned by taking the Jaguars +4 on Thursday night. My recommended wagers have still produced a profit of 11.18 units on the season, but I’d definitely like that number to be higher right now.

This week will be particularly difficult to handicap because of last week’s public slaughter. The books got absolutely crushed in Week 9 with all of the major public plays covering the spread. I’ll be extra cautious in betting on publicly backed teams this week, but that doesn’t mean that I’ll avoid them entirely. I’m feeling a strong bounce-back week.

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