Archive for the ‘NFL Betting Preview’ Category

While my Week 14 record of 6-7-1 ATS wasn’t very impressive overall, I was able to connect on four of my five recommended wagers. I also nailed a play on the Patriots on Monday Night Football and the over on Thursday Night Football to increase my run to 6-1 ATS in the past week. Hopefully the trend continues.

I really like the board this week. I had to be extremely selective to narrow down my picks to a respectable amount of games, but I could have easily bet on a dozen games with confidence. Without further ado, here are my Week 15 selections.

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Consensus line: Bengals -4, total 44.5
Current betting percentage: 74% on the Bengals, 58% on the OVER

Individual Team Trends:

  • Bengals are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games.
  • Bengals are 9-4-2 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
  • Bengals are 1-7-3 ATS in their last 11 games following a S.U. loss. (Streaky team)
  • Eagles are 7-19-1 ATS in their last 27 home games.
  • Under is 5-0 in Bengals last 5 games overall.
  • Over is 9-3 in Bengals last 12 games following a S.U. loss.
  • Over is 4-0 in Eagles last 4 home games.

Head-to-Head Trends:

  • Bengals are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.

Well, the good news is that the Thursday Nighter this week can’t possibly be any worse than the Broncos-Raiders matchup from last Thursday. The bad news is that it’ll still probably suck. But at least we can still wager on it to make things interesting.

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I finished Sunday with a mediocre 6-7-1 ATS record (using closing lines), but yesterday actually proved to be one of my most profitable days of the football season, as my recommended wagers went 4-1 ATS. I completely whiffed on my Cardinals pick, but nailed all four of my 1:00 wagers for a solid 11.6-unit profit.

It’s no surprise that I fared so poorly with the rest of my selections. Other than the five games that I picked (+1 more missed wager on the Giants), I didn’t really feel too confident in any other games. For a second straight week, though, a lot of games were decided late in the fourth quarter, and a number of spreads were affected.

Anyways, without further ado, here’s my recap from each game in Week 14.

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After a terrible 3-9 ATS record in Week 12, I rebounded nicely in Week 13, finishing the week 7-5-2 ATS and going 3-2-1 ATS with my recommended wagers. I’m not particularly in love with the board this week. I entered this week with a number of games that I was looking to bet heavily, but oddsmakers have done a good job adjusting the lines and ensuring that I lose all line value.

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After a terrible 3-9 ATS record in Week 12, I rebounded nicely this week, finishing the week 7-5-2 ATS (using closing lines) and going 3-2-1 ATS with my recommended wagers. Things could have gone a lot differently this week (either good or bad), as there were a number of point spreads that were undecided until late in the game.

Last week, my biggest mistake was trusting teams with poor coaching, and while I lost a play on the Lions this week, I was a miracle touchdown drive away from finishing with a push in that contest. This week, my biggest mistake was shying away from some bets that I felt strongly about early in the week. Oh well, you live an you learn.

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I’m happy to put November behind me after a 3-9 ATS end to the month in Week 12, which came after a 17-7 run through Weeks 10 and 11. I’m still recovering from that epic collapse in San Diego last week and I’ll undoubtedly never think of 4th and 29 the same way again. It was tough to watch those games last week, but I like this week’s card a lot better and I think there are some winners to be had.

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After back-to-back winning weeks, I got taken to the cleaners in Week 12. I finished a measly 3-9 ATS (using closing lines) and to make matters worse, I whiffed on all three of my recommended wagers. This was probably the most painful week I can remember in a long time. Three years ago, I had a week where I only predicted two games correctly against the spread, but that was far easier to swallow than this Sunday’s debacle.

Obviously, I have plenty of excuses for the games that I lost. I was definitely out to lunch on a bunch of my predictions this week, but there were also some bad beats along the way (pictured above). The worst part about this week was that the public took an absolute beating and it just so happened to be in the only week of the season where I was on more public plays than usual.

That’s the definition of orbit right there. Anyways, let’s get to the airing of grievances.

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