Archive for the ‘NFL Betting Preview’ Category

Consensus line: Chargers -7.5, total 43.5
Current betting percentage: 72% on the Chargers and 52% on the OVER

Individual Team Trends:

  • Chiefs are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
  • Chiefs are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 vs. AFC opponents.
  • Chargers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.
  • Chargers are 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 games following a S.U. loss.
  • Under is 10-1 in Chiefs last 11 vs. AFC West opponents.
  • Under is 13-5 in Chiefs last 18 games overall.
  • Under is 12-3-1 in Chargers last 16 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
  • Over is 23-9 in Chargers last 32 games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.

Head-to-Head Trends:

  • Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.
  • Under is 6-2 in the last 8 meetings in San Diego.

Just when you thought that the Thursday Night Football game couldn’t possibly get any worse, the schedule makers treat us to a good old fashioned barn-burner between the Chargers and the Chiefs. I thought the Vikings and Buccaneers last week was bad, but now they’re just scraping the bottom of the barrel. Don’t worry, though, because Jaguars and Colts is on deck next week, and that should generate a ton of public interest (#sarcasm).

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Week 7 was a subpar week for me as I went only 3-7-1 ATS with my overall selections, but I improved my recommended wagers to 16-11-1 ATS by hitting two out of my three plays. I also advised betting the Lions +7 on Monday Night Football and had a slight lean to the Bucs +5 on Thursday night, so overall things weren’t as bad as they may have seemed. I don’t like the board at all this week. I’ve flip-flopped on at least a couple of games and I’ve found myself in agreement with the public on more than half of the games.

I’m really not confident in most of my selections, but here goes nothing.

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Week 6 was a pretty average week, but I made another slight improvement to my record, running my Sunday predictions against the spread up to 43-33-2 on the season. My recommended wagers are 14-10-1 (58%), which is a little lower than I’d like, but I’ve still managed to be profitable despite having lost two of my five-star plays this year. I strongly considered a six-star play this week but ultimately decided against it—I’ll explain why a little bit later on.

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After having my best week to date in Week 4, I merely had an average Week 5 and actually lost money on my recommended wagers. As you may have read in my Week 5 recap article on Monday, I felt that I was on the right side in the Saints-Chargers game last week, but ultimately things didn’t work out.

The good news is that things seem to be getting back on track. I nailed the EXACT final score in the Jets-Texans game on Monday night, and almost predicted the exact final score in the Titans-Steelers game on Thursday. I hope the roll continues into Week 6, but truth be told, I hate the board this week. There are a number of games getting 50/50 action this week and that makes things a lot more difficult to predict because I can’t blindly bet against the public.

Anyways, here we go.

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Consensus line: Cardinals -1.5, total 39.5
Best line for ARI: Cardinals -1, -115 (Pinnacle)
Best line for STL: Rams +1.5, -105 (SportsInteraction)
Current betting percentage: 70% action on the Cardinals, 58% on the OVER

Individual Team Trends:
Cardinals are 6-0 ATS in their last six games against NFC opponents.
Rams are 3-0-1 ATS in their last four home games.
Rams are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games following a S.U. win.
Under is 7-2-1 in Cardinals last 10 games following a S.U. win.
Over is 22-7 in Rams last 29 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Under is 15-6-1 in Rams last 22 against NFC West opponents.

Head-to-Head Trends:
Under is 7-1 in the last eight meetings.
Cardinals are 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
Cardinals are 6-2 ATS in their last eight meetings in St. Louis.

I’m not sure that tonight’s Thursday Night Football game is one of those games that you can’t miss, but it should definitely be interesting. The Arizona Cardinals look to continue the franchise’s best start in 38 years as they travel to St. Louis take on the Rams. Arizona is one of three unbeaten teams remaining in the NFL, along with Houston and Atlanta, despite having had three of their four games come down to the wire. The Cardinals have also been dominant historically against the Rams, having won 10 of their last 11 games against St. Louis, including seven straight wins at the Edward Jones Dome.

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I was pretty happy with the way Week 3 went for me. After struggling with my picks in Week 1, I’ve rebounded nicely in the past couple of weeks going 16-10-2 ATS and getting my recommended bets over the .500 mark.

Week 4 has a lot of tough games on the board. At first glance, there was no single game that stood out to me as a strong play, but as the week has gone on; I feel that there is good value in a number of plays. This week didn’t start out on the best note with my loss with the Ravens -12 on Thursday Night Football, so hopefully that isn’t a sign of things to come.

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Consensus line: Ravens -12, total 44
Best line for CLE: Browns +13.5 – 5Dimes
Best line for BAL: Ravens -11.5 – Bet365
Current betting percentage: 68% action on the Ravens, 54% on the UNDER

Individual Team Trends:
Browns are 6-0 ATS in their last six games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.
Browns are 9-19-2 ATS in their last 30 games following an ATS loss.
Ravens are 30-12-3 ATS in their last 45 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
Ravens are 1-6 ATS in their last seven home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Under is 8-1-1 in Browns last 10 games following a S.U. loss.
Over is 7-0 in Ravens last seven games in September.

Head-to-Head Trends:
Under is 5-1 in the last six meetings.
Browns are 2-6 ATS in their last eight meetings.
Road team is 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings.

I wish I could say that tonight’s Thursday Night Football game is an intriguing matchup, but that would be an outright lie. The most intriguing part of tonight’s game will be seeing the REAL refs back in action, with Gene Steratore getting the call as tonight’s referee. As for the actual game, Baltimore has won eight straight games over their AFC North rivals, and the Browns enter this game as the only winless team in the AFC. Gambling was invented for games like this.

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