Archive for the ‘NFL Betting Preview’ Category

Week 2 was a great bounce back week for me. After struggling with my picks in Week 1, I rebounded nicely with a 9-4-1 ATS record to get back to the .500 mark. The main difference in that one week span was that I was more willing to bet on bad teams if I felt that there was a little bit of line value with them. I tend to bet a lot of underdogs because there’s usually a lot more value in taking underdogs than favorites. In Week 1, I couldn’t make a case for a lot of the underdogs so I decided to go with the favorites instead of taking the line value. I tweaked my strategy a little bit in Week 2 and I was rewarded for it.

Week 3 presents a lot of good betting opportunities and a lot of games I’m not quite sure about. We’ve only seen two games by each team, so for the second straight week I will stress that the key will be not to overreact to such a small sample size.  Hopefully I can carry the momentum from Week 2 into Week 3.

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Current line: Panthers -2.5 (Pinnacle, Bet365, 5Dimes), total is 49.5 across the board
Current betting percentage: 55% action on the Giants, 70% action on the OVER

Individual Team Trends:
Giants are 35-16 ATS in their last 51 road games.
Panthers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games.
Panthers are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.

Head-to-Head Trends:
Over is 4-0 in the last four meetings.
Favorite is 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings.

Thursday Night Football couldn’t have come at a worse time for the New York Giants. The Giants have been ravaged by injuries to start the season, and will be without the services of wide receivers Hakeem Nicks and Domenik Hixon for tonight’s matchup with the Panthers. New York will also be missing their starting running back Ahmad Bradshaw with a neck injury, and starting right tackle David Diehl will also be watching the game from the sidelines.

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Week 1 was a pretty big disappointment for me from a financial perspective.  This is the third straight year in which I’ve been decimated in the first week of the season, and I really can’t explain why.  Maybe it’s because I fall in love with certain games when the lines are first released a couple of months before the season, or maybe it’s just coincidence, but regardless, it’s not unusual for me to get off to a slow start.

I really don’t like the Week 2 board too much.  I’m looking for spots where the general public may have overreacted to what they saw in Week 1, but that’s going to lead me to picking a lot of bad football teams this week just based on line value.  Hopefully I can bounce back from my 4-9 ATS record last Sunday, going a paltry 1-3 ATS on my recommended bets.

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Current line:  Packers -5 (Bet365, 5Dimes), Packers -5.5 (SportsInteraction, Pinnacle), total is set at 51.5 at all books.
Current betting percentage:  50/50 action on the side, 82% action on the OVER

Individual Team Trends:
Bears are 4-1 ATS in their last five games following a win of more than 14 points.
Packers are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 home games.
Packers are 5-0 ATS in their last five games following a loss.

Head-to-Head Trends:
Under is 8-1 in the last nine meetings.
Bears are 2-7 ATS in the last nine meetings.

Thursday Night Football kicks off tonight with a very intriguing NFC North matchup between the Packers and the Bears.  Chicago’s new look offense looked great against the Colts, as they battered Indianapolis’ defense en route to a 41-21 victory. Green Bay, on the other hand, looked abysmal in their Week 1 loss to the 49ers.

The key here is not to overreact to what you saw in Week 1. It’s entirely possible that the Packers may have a down year and that the Bears may be the team to beat in the NFC North, but it’s impossible to tell after only one week of action. Bettors obviously need to adjust to what they saw during the opening weekend, but don’t go over the top. After all, the Packers lost to a legitimate Super Bowl contender, while the Bears beat up on a team that’s in a rebuilding mode.

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The Packers will easily cover and beat San Francisco.

Week 1 is finally here. I’ve been examining these games for nearly two months now, so I felt the need to make these write-ups longer than I normally would make them. Eventually carpal tunnel syndrome and sheer laziness will set in and they’ll get a whole lot shorter, so enjoy them while they last.

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Opening line: Giants -3/46.5
Current line: Giants -4/45 (SportsInteraction, Pinnacle), Giants -3.5/45 (Bet365, 5Dimes)
Current betting consensus: 75% backing the Giants, 64% backing the OVER
Dallas Cowboys (2011): 5-10-1 against the spread, UNDER was 10-6
New York Giants (2011): 8-7-1 against the spread, OVER was 8-7-1
Trends: In their last six meetings, the underdog is 5-1 against the spread, while the OVER is also 5-1.

The NFL changed the setup of this game in 2004 so that the game would be hosted by the defending Super Bowl champions, and since adopting that format, the home team has won all eight contests.

This year that team is the Giants, who are 9-4-1 against the spread in their last 14 games in September. They opened their 2011 season with a 28-14 loss on the road against Washington.

The Giants had some cap issues in the offseason and were forced to let some players go, most notably Brandon Jacobs and Mario Manningham. However, the team added some good pieces through the draft, so expect David Wilson and Rueben Randle to pick up the slack. Meanwhile, Eli Manning, Hakeem Nicks, and Victor Cruz are back to lead one of the most dangerous passing offenses in the NFL.

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