Archive for the ‘Predicting’ Category


In the before time when our fantasy forefathers invented flex spots, they had in mind players like Marquise Goodwin, and the exact situation Goodwin faces today.

Now, before I dive too deep into Goodwin slobbering, let’s get this clear up front: your desire to flex the Bills burner against Pittsburgh rests mostly with the depth of your league, and the degree to which bye weeks hate you. So basically, if you own either Josh Gordon or any of the Patriots’ primary wide receivers (all of whom are on byes), this Goodwin kid looks mighty appealing. Or if you’re in a league with 14 or more teams (hi there, I’m in a 20-team league and I haven’t seen my family in months), Goodwin also deserves at least several minutes of your attention right now as you set lineups.

Why is that? Because of speed, because of Robert Woods, because of E.J. Manuel, and because of favorable target distribution.

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Our adventure through cheap and fake defense rotating this week begins in a place where safeties are scored to win football games, because that’s how Cameron Wake rolls.

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Owning the principle pieces of the Cowboys’ passing offense has been a rather fruitful experience halfway through the 2013 fantasy season. Tony Romo typically came at a nice draft discount (ADP of 71st overall) because of some weird, irrational hatred of him, and now he’s fourth overall in fantasy points at his position (147). Then there’s Dez Bryant, who has fully justified the high draft investment you made to obtain his services while averaging 80.1 receiving yards per game with eight touchdowns. DeMarco Murray has missed some time because that’s what he does, but his 8.9 fantasy points per game has still been pretty alright in a year when running backs have mostly sucked. Jason WItten has been the only true disappointment, and even he’s still the seventh best fantasy tight end.

So all is well and jolly in Dallas for fake footballing purposes, and today it’s about to get even better for those of you who paid the steep price to acquire waiver wire darling Terrance Williams a few weeks ago.

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Somewhere high above, someone is watching over us. Well, not all of us, just those who own the Kansas City defense.

You see, the best fantasy defense in all the land — one that’s scored 129 fantasy points, good enough for an overall rank of 10th when compared to players at all other positions — has once again been looked upon with grace and good fortune. The Chiefs oppose the Buffalo Bills this week, a team with an offense that was already without its regular starting quarterback E.J. Manuel, though Thad Lewis has performed well or at least much better than you expected from Thad Lewis in his absence. But alas, he suffered a rib injury and is now listed as doubtful (Lewis returned to practice Friday, but in a limited capacity and didn’t throw), and the doomed duo of Matt Flynn and Jeff Tuel have split practice snaps this week.

That means a defense in its own postal code while leading the league in sacks (36, and the second-place, um, Bills have 27), intercepting 10 passes, and scoring four defensive touchdowns could face either another undrafted rookie, or Matt Flynn. Both options are roughly equal in their incompetence.

The holiday season is still a little ways out, but Chiefs defense owners can feel free to begin repeatedly singing Joy To The World while kneeling to our fantasy overlords. If Lewis sits as expected, this is how the Chiefs opposing quarterbacks will look over the past three weeks: Matt Flynn/Jeff Tuel, Jason Campbell, and Case Keenum. Going back a little further, they’ve also had the pleasure of facing Ryan Fitzpatrick and Blaine Gabbert.

So go ahead and celebrate while the rest of us plebs sift through the murky depths of defensive streaming. I have a few ideas…

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Fantasy football is inherently a game that leads to irrational thinking. So much is riding on each week and each game to win sweet cash that players who have scorched you in the past come with feelings of deep anxiety, even when you’re fully aware that starting said player may not only be a good move, but the best move. I’m not sure if we’ve invented a medical term for this syndrome, but it should be called “Michael Vickitis”.

The Eagles quarterback has undoubtedly prompted more erratic fantasy decisions than any other player of his kind in this era. His owners were reluctant to draft him because of both his brittle nature and his tendency to give the ball to defenders who definitely aren’t on his team. And now they’re also afraid to start him for the same reasons, because just a few weeks ago while untouched on a routine run Vick blew his hammy tire, which resulted in two missed games.

For those suffering from this reluctance, I hear and understand your fears. But we must overcome, because a now healthy Vick could be the highest producing quarterback today.

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vincent jackson again2

Like every game played on a Thursday, tonight’s football match will likely turn into one that’s only watched by degenerates who really need many fake numbers to climb.

So basically, you’ve come to the right place.

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It’s about an hour before the seventh Sunday of this football season kicks off, and you’re cold and shivering. Not to worry, as this is a natural reaction to Drew Brees’ bye week. After taking the early-round quarterback leap you quite rightfully didn’t feel the need to invest highly in a second quarterback for your fake team, or invest in one at all. So you waited forever and ever, and now you’re stuck with starting Joe Flacco against the Steelers, or Andy Dalton against anyone. This is less than desirable.

As those cold sweats set in further, you feebly check the available players one last time. Then, like the blinking north start, a glowing name stares at your.

Welcome Nick Foles into your life, and do it now.

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