Archive for the ‘Super Bowl XLVIII’ Category

kevin dyson2

This Sunday we’ll all open the glorious gift of a Super Bowl that features both the league’s top offense and top defense. Yes, that fact has been repeated almost hourly over the last two weeks, but no, that doesn’t mean it should get any less remarkable. Those rankings make it likely that we’ll be adding to the list below very soon.

To close out Super Bowl week with some nostalgia and (mostly) good vibes, I went back through the most memorable plays in Super Bowl history. Please note the slight difference between “memorable” and “best”, as the former applies to any event that immediately comes to mind years later, good or bad. Mostly our memories are pleasant, because as humans we like to recall fun things. But there’s one exception below that’s quite painful (my deepest apologies, Wes Welker).

While putting this together I learned that — to the surprise of absolutely no one — selecting just 10 is impossible, so inevitably I omitted one or three, which may make you angry. Also, there’s been a lot of absurd in Super Bowls over the past decade or so.

Oddly, two of the plays with the most historic heroism come from a quarterback whose offseason is now nearly a month old because he was absolutely atrocious in 2013 while leading the league in interceptions, throwing a career single-season high 27. You continue to both baffle and amaze us, Eli Manning

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wilson throw2

There’s been a lot of criticism of Russell Wilson as of late. It’s been about how he didn’t finish the regular season with remarkable statistics, or how he’s missed throws he should be completing. He has been a bit inconsistent at times, leaving throws on the field in favor of holding the ball and trying to make a bigger play, but he’s played fairly well in the playoffs. In the games against the New Orleans Saints and San Francisco 49ers, two games which have stark contrasts in raw statistics, he played well, making big plays when his team needed them and keeping drives alive.

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Sherman arms2

Super Bowl XLVIII is on tap for Sunday evening and I’ll be breaking down the NFL’s grand finale from a betting perspective. I recommended a pair of wagers in the Conference Championship games two weeks ago, going 2-0 in the process. None of that will matter if I can’t predict the outcome of the Super Bowl this year though.

In case you’re wondering about my Super Bowl track record, I incorrectly took the 49ers to cover against the Ravens last year. In all honesty, I really didn’t love that play all that much, but I won’t bore you with excuses. Previous to that, I had correctly predicted the ATS outcome of the previous six Super Bowls (not all of these are documented so you’ll have to just take my word on it), with the last losing selection coming in Super Bowl XL when the referees handed the Steelers a victory over the Seahawks—that’s a story for another day.

It’s been a very strong season overall and hopefully I can provide one last winner to cap off the season with a bang.

The Nickel Package Record: 51-36-3 ATS (58.3%)

Recommended Wagers Record: 64-50-3 ATS (56.0%)

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peyton wave2

Prop: Total TD passes thrown by Peyton Manning

Over 2.5 TD Passes +110

Under 2.5 TD Passes -140

Implied probabilities (converting betting line to percentage):

Over 2.5 TD Passes – 47.62%

Under 2.5 TD Passes – 58.33%

*note: these numbers don’t add up to 100% because of vigorish, the amount charged by the bookmaker for their services

The Denver Broncos put together arguably the best offensive season in the history of the NFL. Led by Peyton Manning, the Broncos scored 55 touchdowns through the air; 16 more than any other team in the league. I don’t want to take anything away from Denver—their offense is undoubtedly a juggernaut—but let’s take a quick look at the opponents that they faced this season and where they stacked up against the rest of the league.

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kaep wilson2

It’s always been this way, or at least it has been as far as any of us can remember now. Super Bowl week is a scavenger hunt of sorts, a search for a story, and a search for a quote. This is not the media’s fault, because they have a job to do, and the scavenging and prodding mentality can overtake a man’s soul when so many like-minded individuals are put into the same bubble for a week, all seeking the same quotes.

It’s the reality of the beast, and all who dare to enter the vacuum of Super Bowl week are subjected to its venomous ways. But the other reality which isn’t acknowledged nearly enough is that outside of those few sporadic quotes and obviously the game itself, there really isn’t that much actual news during Super Bowl week. So those quotes — those oozing, treasure quotes — become the news, because they’re placed under the largest magnifying glass the league has to offer. That’s true even if you’re a player who isn’t involved in the game, and even if you’re there just to sling some product like so many other Z-list celebrities.

So step on up, Colin Kaepernick. Whatcha got?

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broncos celly2

As I continue to think about one game and only one game, what I’m mostly thinking about are how the teams involved could win that one game (I may have also spent some time thinking about how often Joe Buck will say “Beast Mode” and what Bruno Mars will wear on his head).

So since writing down my football thoughts is what I do, over the next two days I’m going to lay out what I believe are the three main factors which give each team a very legitimate chance to win what’s become a mind-numbingly close matchup. Starting with the Broncos…

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manning jags2

Nobody knows how Peyton Manning will attack the Seattle Seahawks’ defense. He may not have a choice, to be frank. He may have to settle for underneath throws all night and work his way up the field. It’s entirely possible if his Week 6 matchup with the Jacksonville Jaguars’ defense is any indication.

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