Week 16 of the NFL is here and I’ll be breaking down all of Sunday’s games from a betting perspective. After a disappointing Week 15 performance, I rebounded nicely with last week’s selections. My plays on The Nickel Package podcast went 3-2 ATS, and I added an additional play into my Recommended Wagers to finish 4-2 ATS. One of my losses came on the Panthers -10.5 (won by 10), which would have probably been a push if I wrote my article on Saturday instead of Friday, but what can you do?
Before I get into this week’s selections, I’ll give a little bit of insight into my strategy this week. A lot of spreads are inflated because of the “need to win” factor, and it’s very important to recognize this going into the week. Don’t assume that a team will win a game just because they need to, and conversely, don’t assume that a team will roll over because the game is meaningless.
I like a lot of games on this week’s board. I’ve had two weeks this season where I’ve wagered on eight or more games, going 5-3 ATS in one week and 3-5 ATS in the other. I’m obviously hoping for the former rather than the latter. I was trying to be as selective as possible this week but just can’t pass up on a lot of these games, especially since my lines are so substantially different from the oddsmakers’ lines.
As of the time of this writing, there is still no posted line on the Packers/Steelers matchup. My breakdown of those games is entirely dependent on who’s starting at quarterback, so I’ll refrain from previewing that game until Sunday morning via my Twitter account (@robpizzola).
The Nickel Package Record: 42-30-3 ATS (58%)
As always, you can check out The Nickel Package podcast, which includes my top five plays in order of confidence. Each week, Joe Fortenbaugh from the National Football Post joins me to analyze those picks and provide additional insight to the games I’ve selected. You can subscribe to the podcast on iTunes, listen to the player below or download the MP3 file here.
Recommended Wagers Record: 52-42-3 ATS (55%)