Archive for the ‘Value mining’ Category

Matthew Stafford is an odd guy. No, not because of his innovative offseason workout habits. You party on, Matty.

He’s intriguing because with OTAs beginning for most teams now and with the NFL offseason clock quickly clicking towards training camps (oh gawd move faster please thanks), projecting what Stafford we’ll see in 2013 is difficult. He’s not unique in that sense, especially among his quarterback peers. Often unless your last name is Rodgers or Brady or Brees or Manning (arguably both Mannings, but definitely Peyton), there’s little need for concern. The rest, though, usually have at least one lingering question mark.

For Stafford, his best efforts to create apprehension could actually be beneficial and result in fine fantasy value.

Oh, and money. That too.

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Da’Rick Rogers could have been a second-round draft pick. Hell, in a draft with little separation nearly three weeks ago, it wasn’t a reach to project him as a late first rounder.

But both of those projections neglect his shady past, which is something general managers don’t do. Rogers was once a Tennessee Volunteer alongside Cordarrelle Patterson and Justin Hunter, but he was given the boot last August after failing multiple drug tests.

That didn’t stop Tyrann Mathieu from being a mid-round pick, but Rogers’ luck was lacking. He fell, and then fell some more, and eventually he wasn’t drafted at all even though he’s only a season removed from being the SEC’s leading receiver (1,040 yards and nine touchdowns in 2011). With the risk associated with his behavior minimized, the Bills signed Rogers as an undrafted free agent, hoping he can do his best Vontaze Burfict imitation by doing the football things that led to his once high draft status, while drifting away from the drug things that could lead to his burnout status.

Early (really, really, stupid early) indications are that Rogers is big, and fast, and able to beat coverage deep. So he’s pretty much exactly what the Bills expected.

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The Eagles signed Felix Jones Tuesday morning, a move that in reality is a fine depth play to bolster an offense that will run more and run often. Also, competition is needed for LeSean McCoy’s current primary backup Bryce Brown, as he still can’t yet be trusted to firmly grasp a football.

In fantasy, though, this seems like it has little relevance. And we hope it doesn’t, but being prepared for Felix Jones to matter is something you need to do. This might hurt.

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As rookie minicamps wrapped up over the weekend and as the OTA season looms, we enter a part of the NFL calendar when cutting through the thick and filthy lies becomes a daunting task. Remember, this is a time of the year when infamous busts like Tim Couch and Ryan Leaf once shined. Never again, right?

Well, sort of, and sometimes. Sure, catches in October during a real football game with real competition and real consequences if the catch isn’t made are more difficult. We all know this, and can acknowledge it readily. But at some point, supreme athletic skill is, well, supreme athletic skill regardless of the circumstances, or the date.

Courtesy of DeAndre Hopkins, I think we witnessed one of those times over the weekend. And oh, it was beautiful, and it made many a fantasy fiend soil undergarments.

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Heath Miller’s knee went pop during the Steeler’s final game of the 2012 regular season.

No, it did more than that. Miller tore his ACL, PCL, and MCL, and while his progress as of about a month ago when he first started to walk was moderately encouraging, it’s still highly likely that he misses a significant chunk of football this fall. The Physically Unable to Perform list (cruelly acronymed to PUP) remains a likely destination, meaning he’ll miss the first six weeks of the season.

Now, before we continue much further here let’s remind ourselves that no two muscle rips are the same, and no two humans are built with the same resistance to crushing and career altering injuries. We’re dealing with a hypothetical here.

But the question that’s the subject of our pondering is this: with Miller possibly gone for a sizable portion of the season and Mike Wallace long departed for Miami, is there a sweet rookie fantasy value mining opportunity on the Steelers’ depth chart?

Also…booyah?

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Jordan Cameron is getting all the tight end sleeper love right about now. He’s so hyped by everyone including this guy who typed these words on your screen that by August, he’ll already be in the Hall of Fame. We’ll just skip the rest of his career altogether.

Cameron’s hype is entirely justified given his new position as Cleveland’s top tight end now that Benjamin Watson is living out his twilight years elsewhere, and the Browns’ offense has been taken over by vertical lovers Norv Turner and Rob Chudzinski. Something about “vertical lovers” in that sentence doesn’t sound right, but I’ll let it stand.

But there’s another tight end who will come with similarly appealing value: Rob Housler.

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When we glance at the always slippery surface, this feels like a year when up to a half dozen rookie wide receivers could emerge to become valuable fantasy commodities, and do so quickly. Of course, that means they’ll all suck.

The position of wide receiver as a whole is highly volatile, with production the most dependent on game situations. It’s true, the same can be said for, say, running backs and quarterbacks, positions where players also often go boom or bust depending on game situations (i.e: a big second-half lead results in more running). The difference, though, is that there are multiple receivers and overall multiple targets for a quarterback, leaving every touch and target vitally important.

That’s why production can sway wildly for even the league’s most explosive receivers. Take A.J. Green, for example. For a time he hovered around the top three this past season in receiving yardage, and he finished with 1,350 yards at a pace of 84.4 per game. Yet even he had a game with just one catch for eight yards (Week 7 against the Steelers).

Combine that inherent opportunity for inconsistency with the typically gradual growth that follows all but the most elite wideouts, and fantasy expectations are often limited at best. Last year there was hope for Justin Blackmon despite concerns about his route running, his quarterback situation, and general ability to be an idiot. Looking purely at his 2012 numbers now it seems like he justified that with an OK year considering the Gabbert-ness of his offense, with 64 receptions for 865 yards and five touchdowns. Then you remember that 236 of those yards came in one game.

Looking at this year’s group, there are a lot of reasons for hope. Mostly because that’s all we have.

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