Archive for the ‘Value mining’ Category

The Ravens entered last week’s draft with 10 picks, and seven of them were invested in the defensive side of the ball. Of the other three, only one player could touch a football with any frequency while trying to score (wide receiver Aaron Mellette, picked in the seventh round).

That was a predictable direction by general manager Ozzie Newsome, but it’s still concerning.

The Ravens’ defense was dealt repeated body blows during the early days of free agency, highlighted by the retirement of Ray Lewis, the need to release Bernard Pollard and make him a salary cap casualty, and then Paul Kruger, Ed Reed, and Dannell Ellerbe signed elsewhere.

So sure, it’s quite easy to understand the logic behind waiting until the 168th overall pick in the draft to select someone who doesn’t play defense. Because, you know, scoring points becomes a little futile when you can’t stop the other guys from doing the same. Matt Elam in the first round to replace Reed and play alongside Michael Huff made a whole lot of sense, as did Arthur Brown one round later.

But the hole left at wide receiver could lead to some mighty fine fantasy value.

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Rookie fantasy impact is always tied to the depth chart, that evil touch killer. That’s true at any position, but it seems worse at running back, often because it is worse.

Unless we’re dealing with a more dynamic player who can be frequently utilized in the passing game (think someone who’s as tools-y as Reggie Bush or Darren Sproles), any blockage on the depth chart can lead to limited returns immediately.

Consider last year’s rookie class at the position, which was led by Trent Richardson. He was the Browns’ top running back the moment he finished his Roger Goodell shug, because usually that happens when a team can justify using a top three pick on a prospect at a highly combustible position. Doug Martin followed suit after beating out LeGarrette Blount,

Beyond them, though, the production of the 2012 rookie running backs was scattered, and that’s being rather polite. Despite the enormous potential he eventually showed and will continue to show this year, David Wilson was held back by Ahmad Bradshaw and Andre Brown for much of the season. The likes of Isaiah Pead and LaMichael James (both second rounders) saw only deep and very limited reserve roles during the regular season, while Alfred Morris — easily the most successful rookie running back in 2012 with his 1,613 rushing yards, behind only Adrian Peterson — waited until the sixth round, and was initially an afterthought.

Therein lies the woefully unpredictable nature of the rookie fantasy running back. As we saw with Wilson and his fumbling, the hype train stops chugging with one wayward step.

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There’s a time of transition and great change beginning in Jacksonville. Or so we’ve been led to believe, at least, and for now that’s good enough. Hell, for now the fact that new general manager David Caldwell is repeatedly inserting a knife into the Tim Tebow rumors is plenty good enough.

Among their 2013 draft class, Luke Joeckel and Jonathan Cyprien will be the most hyped prospects, and rightfully so. One was a top three pick, and the other is a second rounder who could have easily been a first rounder, and they both fill key needs.

But in fantasyland, those who enjoy winning money and impressing friends and relatives (and doing both at the same time) should keep another name in mind as a potential deep sleeper: Denard Robinson.

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Tight end has become one of the most explosive, yet still mostly predictable fantasy positions. Generally, they can be separated into two groups: Rob Gronkowski, Aaron Hernandez, Jimmy Graham, Tony Gonzalez, Jason Witten…and the rest.

Or maybe I was generous there, and we can knock that list of elite tight ends down to just three, two of which have pretty unoriginal nicknames (they’re really just shortened last names): Gronk, Graham, and Gonzo. In any competitive standard league, getting either of the first two will usually cost you an early second-round pick at best, and often a late first rounder, while Gonzalez doesn’t fall far behind. Those three were the only tight ends to score over 130 fantasy points in 2012, which is made even more incredible when you remember the time Gronkowski missed due to injury (five games).

I’ll get to the matter at hand in a minute here and dig into the short list of relevant fantasy tight end rookies who found homes during the draft, but what follows is important to explain why the pickings on said list are slim.

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