Archive for the ‘Value mining’ Category

edelman-TD2

Overreacting is always a horrible thing to do, but it makes even less sense after a week that was, in a word, bizarre. Leading the loopy: only two running backs rushed for over 100 yards.

But waiver wire mining is a necessity for those who like to profit from fake footballing. There are deals to be had in the early going, with a quarterback who could continue his weekly Tebow impression widely available, as is a Patriots receiver who will get all the targets now with Danny Amendola out.

This year I’ll look at five waiver targets for each skill position every week, though I may sometimes fall short of that number if I’m lazy the wire is particularly thin. Later on this week I’ll do a separate but similar post for team defenses, recommending the best streaming options. Sorry kickers, I know you’re people too.

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Deep Sleeping: Joique Bell

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Hello there. This is a post in which we’ll bravely explore the dark and deepest depths of depth charts, looking for sleepers who are sometimes absurdly deep that you should watch out for either as a late-round flier, or an early season waiver wire add. I’ll also be wrong often in this post, so you can enjoy that too.

Reggie Bush is set to be a superman in Detroit, if you listen to anyone who’s said anything about Reggie Bush since he signed with the Lions (*points two thumbs at self*). In theory, he’s in an offense that intends to ask him to do what he does best, which isn’t run between the tackles, or any sort of power running (though he can do that, sparsely). Bush is great in space, and to get him in space, he needs to catch passes and be a consistent receiving threat out of the backfield. He did that over the past two years in Miami, but his receiving numbers there were far lower than previously in his career, when he caught 88 and 73 balls in his first two seasons.

In his rookie year, those 88 catches led to a career high 742 receiving yards, high watermarks that are within reach now, which is what’s propelled Bush’s ADP to a late second-round level.

But there will be plenty of footballs flying in Detroit, enough that another name directly behind Bush on the Lions’ running back depth chart can scratch your late-round lottery tickets, especially for those in point-per-reception leagues. Let’s reacquaint ourselves with Joique Bell.

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hilton2

Everyone likes to purchase new things, even those of the male species who bemoan a Saturday afternoon spent nodding outside of change rooms when asked a question, any question at all. It’s the small joys, really, because a new shirt just feels so smooth, and sometimes even shiny. It’s cool, and you’re cool.

But then the new thing is worn, and it sits in your closet for a while. Gradually, the new thing becomes the old thing, and it’s just another shirt. You still like it, but the feeling is gone.

The cycle of fantasy football existence in many ways mirrors this behavior. We have someone new and young (like, say, Randall Cobb), and expecting a glorious output from them just feels so right. But then we have the old guard, and the established creaky guy who may or may not be grizzled. He’s often aging, he’s sometimes slowing, and he’s had his share of breaks and tears. But for all of his flaws, there’s still a history we can look back on while nodding our heads. There’s still some degree of a comfort level.

This year, the old guy vs. new guy battle in fake football could be fought between T.Y. Hilton and Greg Jennings.

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griffin-titans2

You should be confident in Robert Griffin III’s health. He hasn’t had a setback, and starting tomorrow he’ll participate in a full team workout for the first time, getting some reps in 11-on-11 drills. Mike Shanahan’s leash is still around his neck, but it’s loosening slowly.

And today Griffin said these glorious words: “there’s no doubt I’m playing in Week 1″. That sensation you’re feeling is known as bliss, or possibly even a sexual awakening, depending on how far you’re willing to take this.

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meachem2

We now have a full week of preseason football to digest, and the practice of picking apart the few meaningful fantasy nuggets from the minefield of elongated boxscores is ongoing.

There are few definitive conclusions we can make following Week 1 of the preseason. That’s the nature of early August, as this isn’t a place where definitive conclusions usually live. However, here’s one statement that feels increasingly obvious: Robert Meachem is the suckiest suck that ever sucked.

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pierre garcon again2

Risk is scary, and unless you’re the daredevil type who treats skydiving into a volcano as the average Tuesday, most humans try to manage risk. Example: a long weekend is starting in a matter of hours here in the great nation of Canada, and to ensure that I don’t have to make multiple trips, I’ve purchased many boxes filled with beer. All risk is now gone.

At its most basic level, fantasy football is rooted in risk management. But that doesn’t mean risk should be entirely avoided, because doing so is impossible. There are no guarantees, or entirely safe picks.

Embracing a certain degree of risk is how quality draft value is found. Wherever there’s an opportunity for value, there’s also often a flaw. The two are linked, but the chance for value needs to be far greater than the likelihood of the worst possible scenario (usually, injury) becoming reality.

Right now, that’s especially true with two players, one of whom is at a position where scarcity is a significant concern.

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braylon-edwards2

Hello there. This is a post in which we’ll bravely explore the dark and deepest depths of depth charts, looking for sleepers who are sometimes absurdly deep that you should watch out for either as a late-round flier, or an early season waiver wire add. I’ll also be wrong often in this post, so you can enjoy that too.

Most days and most years, I would hate myself for even hinting at any kind of value hidden somewhere within the body and hands of Braylon Edwards. This day, apparently, isn’t most days, pretty much because someone has to catch footballs for the New York Jets.

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