I’m not sure how many times I’ve mentioned that it’s May. But, well, it’s May, and therefore whenever a head coach or player of prominence says something with a statistical prediction attached to it, fantasy fiends begin wondering and imaging. Most of all, we begin discussing, and that’s what we do around here. We talk about stuff.

Yesterday, Aaron Rodgers provided our wandering minds with a nice little jumping off point, and another reason for Randall Cobb infatuations everywhere to grow.

He created many drooling mouths when the Packers quarterback said this to Jason Wilde:

“I think Randall Cobb is a guy who could be a 100-plus catch guy every year.”

Rodgers dropped that while speaking rather fondly of his wide receivers as a whole after the departure of Greg Jennings, noting that James Jones led the league in touchdowns last year. That is a true fact, as he rather remarkably hauled in 14 TDs despite a pretty average overall reception total (64).

With Jennings gone, Jones and Jordy Nelson will man the outside. Usually that would then present a scenario in which Cobb’s targets as the slot receiver are more limited, and therefore his production potential is too. But there’s nothing usual about Randall Cobb.

Cobb is used pretty much everywhere. Although he’s most often featured in the slot, he can slide outside, and he’s part of some innovative trickery when he lines up the backfield. Hell, he even plays goalie sometimes, and there’s no goalie in football. He’s truly ahead of his time.

He received 104 targets last year, and he turned that into 80 receptions for 954 yards and eight touchdowns. Then that backfield presence led to some extra bit of Percy Harvin-esque fantasy gravy, with 132 rushing yards on only 10 attempts, which were highlighted by two +20 yard runs.

So what does Cobb have to do to reach the next plateau that Rodgers speaks of? Just keep being you, Randall.

Despite 90 fewer targets, Cobb finished only eight fantasy points behind Reggie Wayne. Jennings and Nelson essentially missed a combined 14 games last year (Nelson played in two of those games, but he was either severely limited or he exited early), and clearly that helped with Cobb’s usage. But the diversity of his skillset and his slot ability which is best utilized through high volume targets in open space should compensate for the presence of Jones and Nelson, while they’re primarily used in a field-stretching capacity.

Cobb will be a point-per-reception league super stud, and a receiver who’s consistently capable of breaking away for chunk yardage. He had six receptions for 30 or more yards last year, and two multiple-catch games when he averaged at least 20 yards per grab.

If he doesn’t get to 100 receptions, he’ll fall only just short while easily eclipsing 1,000 yards (he didn’t start until Week 3 in 2012, and he fell only 46 yards short of that mark). In most mock drafts right now he’s coming off the board in about the third round, or sometimes early in the fourth. That price is about right for his expected production in an offense that will run more now with Eddie Lacy and Johnathan Franklin, but a team that employs Aaron Rodgers will still feature the passing game as its offensive foundation.

Buy high, and buy happily.

Pictured: Not a small hill.

There are few things in this life Ray Lewis can’t do. So if he wanted to physically move Mount Kilimanjaro to the United States and then climb it, I don’t doubt that would be entirely possible. Alas, he’s become a more modest man in retirement, and he’ll travel to Tanzania instead.

The now former Ravens linebacker announced his intention to climb over 19,000 feet to the Kilimanjaro summit next month. It’s a journey into the skies which will satisfy both his athletic and charitable urges, as his mission is to raise money and awareness for the clean water projects in East Africa (he’s accepting donations through a website, and he’ll be giving away an autographed helmet).

Lewis is only a few months into his post-football life, and he’s already climbing mountains. I give it two years before he’s the first NFL legend to become an astronaut.

When Wes Welker signed with the Broncos, there was both elation, and fear. So basically, it was the same reaction to every trade or signing in NFL history.

But this time, it was personal. This time, Welker may have dealt a sizable body shot to our fantasy wallets.

Welker was Tom Brady’s primary target in New England, which became especially true when one member of their tight end duo was almost always broken. With both Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez missing a chunk of time this past season, Welker’s targets ballooned to a career high 175, which he then turned into 118 receptions, 1,354 yards, and six touchdowns. Both his reception and target totals were significantly ahead of Brandon Lloyd, the Patriots’ No. 2 receiver who finished with 74 catches on 130 targets.

Welker’s high target volume resulted in elite fantasy production over his six seasons in new England, as he averaged 112 receptions per year with 1,243 yards. He was the man, man, and now he isn’t. And he knows it.

Earlier this week, Welker acknowledged what us fantasy folk have long feared: he won’t have nearly as many footballs in his hands this year.

From the Denver Post:

“If I have to catch 112 balls, that probably means we’re in trouble,” Welker said Monday after his first practice with the Broncos.

There you go. Problem solved. Welker not only doesn’t expect to catch 112 passes now that he’s with the Broncos, he believes it’s better if he doesn’t.

“(The catches) are not the goal,” Welker said. “The goal is to go out there and help your team win games. However many catches that is, however many blocks that takes, however many routes I’ve got to run, whatever. I think we all feel the same way about that.”

Welker is now in an offense which features two other highly talented receivers in Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker, in addition to tight ends Jacob Tamme and Joel Dreessen. The sheer number of hands to feed at Welker’s position is already troubling before we consider the breakdown of Peyton Manning’s targets last year. He attempted 583 passes, and here’s who they were primarily directed at:

• Thomas: 141 targets
• Decker: 123
• Tamme: 85
• Dreessen: 58
• Stokley: 58

Stokley’s still reasonably high targets despite his age and decline blesses us with hope that Welker’s statistical fall won’t be too drastic. Manning has always utilized the slot receiver, which is especially evident when we look back on Stokley’s time in Indianapolis, and his single-season high of 102 targets in 2004. That turned into 1,077 yards and 10 touchdowns, and most importantly, it came in a season when Reggie Wayne was targeted 115 times (finishing with 1,210 yards and 12 touchdowns), and Marvin Harrison was the runaway leader with 139 targets (1,113 yards and 15 touchdowns).

So in a Manning-led offense with multiple options who are worthy of a high target volume, there’s still the opportunity to cut one chunky slice of pie, and then have two more slices that are still large and delicious, but moderately smaller. The difference is that Welker is now the smaller slice.

Zone blocking-schemes are a fickle beast in the NFL, and their resounding success stories are balanced by the failures. The most notable and often cited example of the former is the Houston Texans, a team which has used the scheme that’s perfectly suited for Arian Foster’s skillset to clear room for their lead running back to run for 4,264 yards over the past three seasons, with 41 touchdowns. His highest single-season total during that stretch was 1,616 yards. Yeah, pretty good.

Then there’s the tale of woe that is the Raiders. Sure, much of Darren McFadden’s failures under their zone-blocking scheme installed prior to the 2012 season was a result of his inability to not break things (he missed four games). But when he was healthy, McFadden was mostly horrible. He averaged 3.3 yards per carry and 58.9 per game, while scoring only twice on the ground.

This offseason the Raiders announced a move away from zone blocking, and McFadden was rather excited:

“This is very exciting for me. I am the type of guy who likes to go downhill, make a cut and go; that’s my thing. We’ll mix it up like we used to, and get some zones in there, but for the most part, I will be keeping my shoulders toward the line of scrimmage.”

Despite all the wonderful things the Steelers’ coaching staff and offensive linemen are saying about their intention to mix in some zone-blocking concepts this year, you’re forgiven for feeling more conflicting emotions than a pimple-faced teen.

Over the Steelers’ first three OTA practices, new offensive line coach Jack Bicknell Jr. has started to install some outside zone-blocking concepts. This new scheme will be worked into Pittsburgh’s current running repertoire, but it’ll be used with enough frequency that the concept will impact the success — or maybe lack of success — of the team’s running backs. That most notably applies to Le’Veon Bell, one of the few rookie running backs who’s in a prime position for a heavy early workload.

To put it simply, zone blocking is exactly what it sounds like: blocking an area, and not a man. To put it a little less simply and more specifically, here’s the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review’s explanation:

The outside zone blocking scheme involves the center, guard, tackle and tight end working in combination to block an area with an emphasis on double-teaming the defensive linemen who are aligned on the line of scrimmage. They will all step in unison laterally to the play side at the snap in order to create movement along the defense. The key is for the two offensive linemen working in unison to double-team the defensive lineman to decide who and when one of them will leave to block the linebacker. The running back aims for a point outside the tight end and cuts upfield wherever a seam appears. There are no predetermined holes to where a running back is supposed run.

There are two core keys to success in this system. The first is having a group of offensive linemen who are both powerful, and quick. To block a space instead of a body, they need to identify and get to said space quickly, and do so in unison. After they jettisoned some of their aging and slower bodies (Max Starks and Willie Colon), and they have highly drafted youth in the form of Maurkice Pouncey and Mike Adams, the Steelers are confident their group fits the profile.

That’s nice, and I believe them. But what about the running backs? The ideal zone-blocking running back has high-end breakaway speed, a description which certainly applies to Foster. You’d think it would apply to McFadden too, and it often does. Far more often, though, he runs too upright.

That elite straight-line speed is essential because the running back in a zone-blocking scheme needs to identify the correct seam quickly to get the edge, make one cut, and go. Preferably, go far too. Really far.

The Steelers’ running backs are fast, but they’re not Foster fast. We’re mostly concerned with Bell around these parts, because again, if the cards fall in their expected locations throughout the offseason, he has a chance to make the most significant fantasy impact. During his final year at Michigan State he finished with 1,960 total yards and 13 touchdowns, and he did it primarily by running over defenders, not around them.

However, although his style may lean more towards that of a power runner, Bell still has enough top-end speed to gain the edge and accelerate in the open field. Back at the Combine in February, Bell ran a 4.60 in the 40-yard dash, while in his draft year Foster ran a 4.69. Bell’s pre-draft scouting report at NFL.com is…encouraging:

Big, bruising back with power in his lower body but lighter feet than you’d expect give his size. North-south runner effective in one and two-back sets. Strong cuts and a nice burst out of them makes him capable of breaking off big runs when the hole is available. Sets up defenders in the open field to cut away. Flashes some stop-start ability and shake in space that freezes oncoming defenders.

And then it’s a little discouraging…

Taller back who presents a big target for defenders to hit, especially when failing to lower his pads going into the hole. Size also limits his breakaway speed and ability to create on his own if challenged by better front sevens.

North-south running is key for both a power game and behind zone-blocking. The critical difference, though, is that a running back needs to have the lateral quickness to get to the outside in a zone scheme. Bell has that, but not nearly at the same level as Foster, and likely not McFadden either.

If this was a full transition to a zone-blocking scheme, it would be a reason for caution going forward. But instead it’s a hybrid move, so we can now go about the business of being only half as worried.

But last night Suh showed his gentle side when he befriended a sea-faring being.

That’s our boy Suh at a Detroit Red Wings playoff playoff game, which the home team won 2-0 over the Chicago Blackhawks to take a surprising 3-1 series lead.

The legend of the octopus runs deep in Red Wings lore, and if you’re not a hockey fan (that’s illegal in Canada, by the way) and you’d like to kill off more of your Friday morning while not be productive at all, you can go ahead and do that now while learning about how this particular sea creature became tangled with a frozen game.

Suh was all up in that hockey madness last night, telling the Lions website that the atmosphere at Joe Louis Arena was just crazy, man. He also had the honor of taking a ride on the zamboni, and in my homeland, that’s every child’s dream (we dream big here). Hell, there’s even a song about driving it.

No, seriously…

Sorry for subjecting you to that. Anyways, if someone could get the video of Suh on the zamboni from last night and cut it to that tune, you’d be my hero. Thanks.

For now, we’ll just have to settle for this creative interpretation from Scott Johnson in GIF form. It’s based on Suh’s, um, distinguished driving record.

We pride ourselves on fine tattoo reporting around here. From Von Miller’s arm chicken to the largest and stretchiest Dolphins tat ever, we document the history of NFL ink. It takes hard work, perseverance, and the ability to click a computer mouse and use a keyboard. Advanced stuff.

But this is the first time I’m not sure if I should be frightened, or impressed. Both?

A hero in Buffalo had an enormous image of O.J. Simpson inked forever on his leg. He did this because, of course, Simpson is a local hero in his own right when he was known just as a legendary running back, and not a guy who was in the back seat of a Bronco while it was being chased by a whole lot of police cars. Oh, and then there was the armed robbery and kidnapping conviction in 2008. That too.

Yet still, the pioneer named Bryan Labarron below didn’t just think the Juice was worthy of occupying some serious skin real estate on his body. The image he chose is, well, infamous…

That’s Simpson’s 1994 mugshot, taken when he was accused of killing Nicole Simpson and Ronald Goldman. The detail is remarkable, and according to Sports-Kings, it took nine hours to complete.

Labarron sort of likes the Bills. We get that, but it feels like this was a drunken idea first conceived shortly before the lights went on at a local establishment, and somehow all who were present recalled it the next morning.

One day, another such moment of creative genius will lead to Desmond Bryant’s tongue-protruding mugshot covering someone’s back. When that happens, people can just stop getting tattoos. It’s over.

Thanks, Sportress of Blogitude

I’d tell you to mentally prepare yourself for a summer filled with anonymous quotes from kind folk in and around the Jets locker room who are saying horrible things, but such preparation isn’t needed. Recently, anonymous Jets vitriol has been just as much a part of summer fun as beer, bikinis, fast boats, and apple pie. If you don’t think apple pie belongs there, you’re doing it wrong.

We’re still about a month away from the official start of summer, but what the hell, let the fun begin. What say you now, nameless Jets player who hates someone?

Surprisingly, our first foray into Jets self mutilation this offseason was actually sort of…kind? Well, it was at least much more tame than your average verbal spear coming from the place that happiness forgot.

This one is brought to us by Mike Freeman, and of course the subject matter is Mark Sanchez, and the team’s forever mangled quarterback position. Annnd here we go…

“Everyone on the team likes Mark personally but there’s a general feeling among some of the players that maybe it’s time to give someone else a chance.” The player went on to say that he estimates that 80-90 percent of the team feels the same way he does.

So it seems the Jets like Mark Sanchez the person, but not Mark Sanchez the quarterback. Unfortunately, last year the league stopped awarding points for smiles and shirtless pictures, so being super nice is no longer statistically relevant.

Percy Harvin plays wide receiver. But really, that’s just a name. Although he’s fully capable of doing awesome stuff while split out wide, there’s often very little that’s wide about his alignment. He’s pretty damn good at being a slot receiver, where his speed in open space is utilized on crossing routes.

But over the past two seasons — and also his final two seasons in Minnesota — he was aligned in a position where both the words “wide” and “receiver” don’t apply.

Does not compute.

Harvin being used in the backfield and being handed the ball as a running back isn’t new, but the frequency of his backfield usage has increased. In 2011 he was given 52 carries that he turned into 345 yards and two touchdowns, with his longest run a 39 yarder. Then this past season over just nine games he logged 22 carries, establishing a 39-carry pace over a full season. Put those two seasons together and that’s 74 carries since 2011, after Harvin was given only 23 carries during his rookie and sophomore years.

Even with that lower 2012 total which likely dwindled due to lingering injuries, he still had two games with at least 20 rushing yards. That’s some tasty fantasy gravy and two extra fantasy points on top of Harvin’s receiving production, as he was on pace for over 1,200 yards through the air despite dealing with Christian Ponder’s mediocrity.

So it’s nice to hear that he’ll still be featured as a running back periodically and pouring us that gravy this year in a much more diverse Seattle offense. From the Seattle Times, here’s the nugget Harvin dropped yesterday:

“I’ll be moving around — pretty much all around,” said the 5-foot-11, 184-pound Harvin. “There’ll be a little bit of running back coming up. But right now, we’re just trying to get the foundation set, just running the base plays, and we’ll see where it goes from there.”

Harvin could see even greater success in the running game with defenses now forced to be wary of both his explosiveness in addition to Russell Wilson’s ability to find the edge fast on read-option plays. While his overall carry total in any single game will still be minimal, having a backfield with two other dynamic athletes — Wilson and Marshawn Lynch — increases Harvin’s opportunities to pop one of his rushing attempts for a long gain.

In 2011 he recorded five +20 yard carries while averaging 6.6 yards per carry, and now the pieces are in place for a similar output.

You may have noticed several tremors beneath your feet this morning. The source of the first is easy: the Tebow-Norris alignment is quickly overtaking the Earth’s core. No biggie.

The second one is also pretty predictable: for the first time since his playoff injury in which he tore seemingly every known ligament in his knee, Robert Griffin III worked out in front of the media today. I’m not exactly sure what we expected, but at the very least what’s been seen so far through the live ESPN look-in (no, seriously) has been…encouraging.

When we last saw Griffin in front of an audience of any kind, he was doing jumping jacks at the Redskins’ draft event. That was nearly a month ago, and now it’s a week until the calendar flips to June. Time stands still for no man.

We know that Griffin has been running on land since early April, and we know that he’s been running in a pool for even longer. Those were both great signs, but they were still merely steps. We needed to see him do, well, more quarterback-y sort of things. We’d like visual proof of his ability to execute a dropback, because it requires planting hard on that knee, and then bouncing with maybe even a bit of mild cutting while moving around the pocket.

We saw that today, and we saw it a lot.

RG3 has been dropping back and throwing for abt 20 minutes. Mildly surprising.

— Tarik El-Bashir (@TarikCSN) May 23, 2013

Oh, you need real, photographic evidence? Fine.

If you’re not impressed by that, his rehab has also prominently featured long midnight runs while pulling that dump truck.

Even if it’s in a limited capacity, seeing the sixth highest scorer in fantasy football acting sort of like a real, normal football player while on a field in May warms my heart. Once that feeling subsides, though, please resume the normal practice of approaching every minor RG3 update (oh, there will be plenty…I gotta eat) with the required amount of optimism that’s restricted by realism.

Yes, seeing him throwing and looking somewhat normal today is great, but the most mountainous hurdle remains far off in the distance. He needs to face contact, and much like the Vikings’ approach with Adrian Peterson last summer, it’s likely that the Redskins won’t expose their franchise quarterback to serious, pounding contact until it matters in Week 1.

Last summer Peterson was subjected to some highly controlled practice contact late in training camp. But he didn’t appear in a preseason game, and he was still a game-time decision during opening weekend, with his status remaining undecided until a few hours before kickoff. Brace for Washington to coddle Griffin in a similar manner, and the nervousness that creates in August could lead to at least a slight fall in his fantasy draft value.

That’s already started to an extent in offseason mocks, with Griffin’s ADP currently resting at 61st overall over at My Fantasy League, while Fantasy Football Calculator has him at 77th. On both sites he’s below Matthew Stafford and Russell Wilson, both of whom finished over 40 points behind Griffin in fantasy production this past season.

UPDATE: I always hate to be the killer of spirits, but when he met with the media Griffin said he hasn’t started cutting yet. Not even a little bit, so that’s pretty important.

He still plans to be ready for training camp though, and don’t worry, I’ll update you on his progress daily/hourly.

Going into the 2013 offseason, the Buccaneers had to upgrade one of the league’s worst secondaries. It was thrown on the second most last season, an incessant 627 times, and it gave up the second most net yards per attempt at 7.3, per Pro Football Reference. To prevent that from happening again, general manager Mark Dominik made a splash by acquiring Darrelle Revis from the New York Jets, a game-changer at cornerback and one of the league’s best players. He also made another move, luring free agent free safety Dashon Goldson away from the San Francisco 49ers.

While Revis will (deservedly) be talked about the most, if only because of the $16 million annually he’s making, acquiring Goldson is the move that could decide just how good the Tampa Bay secondary truly is in 2013. He’s the last line of defense, securing the middle of the field by demolishing receivers, intercepting passes, and preventing big plays. If Goldson is used correctly and plays great, he’s the one who could solidify the defense.

But Goldson hasn’t always played great. He’s not a bad safety, per se, but he’s also not a great one. He tends to take questionable angles coming downhill, and he gets caught ball-watching like a bad soccer player. Those are both issues that stem from his aggressive play and they’ve reared their ugly head on more than one occasion over the last few years, so they should be expected from time-to-time in Tampa.

That said, although he’s not a great safety, he’s a good one that can make big plays and he appears to fit the Bucs’ scheme well. He handles centerfield responsibilities well, which will give defensive coordinator Bill Sheridan freedom to use last year’s first-round pick Mark Barron in the box more — a place where he’s arguably at his best — and offer help to the cornerback opposite of Revis.

When Goldson is operating in the middle of the field, he’s good at keeping the play in front of him and being patient as offensive concepts develop. The play that best illustrates that description comes from the 2012 playoffs against the New Orleans Saints, when he recorded an interception on arguably one of the best plays of his career.

It was 1st-and-10 with the ball on the 25-yard line in Saints territory. As the game clock ticked past the minute-and a-half mark in the first quarter, quarterback Drew Brees stood in an empty shotgun set. He was all alone in the backfield and had five targets spread the width of the line of scrimmage, two of which were tight end Jimmy Graham and wide receiver Adrian Arrington to his right. Graham was closest to the line, the No. 3 threat from the sideline-in, and he would be running a post route through the seam. Arrington, the No. 2 receiver, was also set to run a post route, only just outside the seam.

The routes were designed to confuse Goldson, who would be rotating from outside the top hash to the middle. He would have help inside and out, with middle linebacker Patrick Willis running underneath Graham’s route and safety Donte Whitner running outside of Arrington’s. But a well-placed pass from Brees would negate the help if Goldson was out of position.

At the snap, Graham ran downfield and then made a slight incision toward the 49ers midfield logo, where Goldson was standing. Watching his tight end run the route, Brees gave a quick pump of the shoulders to freeze Goldson and then shifted his eyes to Arrington running the second post route. The pump was supposed to hold Goldson still, but it didn’t quite work out that way. Goldson briefly stopped and then kept moving again, rotating over to Arrington’s route as Brees hesitated to throw the football.

When Brees finally threw the ball, he was late and Goldson was zeroing in on Arrington’s post route. Goldson leaped forward and undercut the throw, intercepting it before returning it 41 yards to the Saints’ four-yard line.

It was one of the finest plays of Goldson’s career and one that Bucs fans should keep in mind as they analyze his play this season. There’s a possibility he spends more time as a single-high safety than he did in San Francisco last season because of his coverage skills, the preference to have Barron in the box, and the help that Revis doesn’t need. The 49ers’ defense utilized a two-high shell and let their safeties aggressively attack downhill.

If Goldson can keep his mistakes to a minimum and make plays when the ball is in the air, there’s a good chance that he’ll be able to help the Bucs’ secondary get over the struggles they dealt with last season, making him a valuable acquisition.

Too often, though, it isn’t. Just last week Toronto Raptors forward Amir Johnson planted his throw a few feet off the mound, despite much practice and anticipation. Skip to the two-minute mark below to see the carnage…

Thankfully, last night Chargers receiver Danario Alexander’s attempt at a Padres game didn’t end in similar crushing shame. We see it in the video evidence that also features Vincent Brown and his kid being a kid at a baseball game.

Thanks, Drew Fairservice

We can pack up shop for the week now. Let’s just end it early here on Thursday morning, and have a really long weekend. Nothing that appears on the Interwebs for the remainder of the week will get better than a Tim Tebow-Chuck Norris pairing.

This has been anticipated since the moment Tebow was conceived, yet having two beings who possess such immense power seemed unthinkable. As a human race, will we be able to handle their combined might? I’m still not sure, but now we’ll find out in the coming days. They’ve aligned, and anything is possible.

Earlier this week the magic happened when Norris wrote a rambling manifesto in support of Tebow and his search for meaningful NFL employment. He published his digital Tebow hug on something called News Busters, which comes with the tag line “exposing and combating liberal media bias”. In turn, that means the site in question isn’t at all biased, even a little bit.

Although a Norris-Tebow pairing is pretty much the greatest thing the Internet has offered us until at least tomorrow, sadly, I think Norris may be the celebrity spokesperson for the mercifully now dwindling Tebow support group which is localized in Jacksonville.

So let’s dive in. But excuse me for a moment while I skip around like a hyperactive child on Christmas morning who’s opening his Nintendo 64…

OK, all better. Let’s go.

Norris was quick to address the Tebow critics. So basically, everyone.

I’ve heard the critics say Tebow has poor technical skills, but the truth is that Tim is a natural leader, an amazingly gifted football player, an inspiration to his team and the possessor of intense determination and strategy to bring any team to victory — no matter what the odds. One can improve technique, but leadership is innate.

No, leadership is almost solely narrative based, and although it exists as a characteristic, it can’t be measured. Therefore, it can be applied liberally as a sort of discussion-ender for those like Norris who have this weird Tebow infatuation. “But he’s a leader!” they say repeatedly. What, exactly, does that mean? That Tebow is somehow able to motivate men to do their jobs even though they’re already giving maximum effort, while he remains terrible at his job due to those “technical skills” Norris tosses aside?

A leader is a great leader if his team is winning, and he’s then a scared little man if his team is losing. That’s always true even though in both circumstances, he’s the same guy.

I highlighted lots of numbers while assessing the fantasy implications of Michael Crabtree’s injury that’s set to keep him out until at least Week 12 this fall, which is nearly the entire fantasy regular season. Not good.

Now I’ve compiled a few more interesting digits from some people who do really awesome things with numbers and that device you use to add them together.

In the playoffs Kaepernick had a QB rating of 139.7 when throwing at Crabtree.

— Pro Football Focus (@PFF) May 22, 2013

You’ll also note that during the playoffs, three of the four touchdowns Kaepernick threw landed in Crabtree’s hands.

Colin Kaepernick targeted Michael Crabtree 27 times on 3rd down and 13 times in the red zone, both more than 3x as much as the next guy.

— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) May 22, 2013

Although Anquan boldin can’t match Crabtree’s speed and ability to be a deep threat, he’s more than capable as a third-down and goal-line possession receiver. That was often the role he played for Joe Flacco last year, and his leaping ability was frequently utilized.

Nonetheless, this is still troubling…

including playoffs, Colin Kaepernick targeted Crabtree more than 3 times as frequently as any other #49ers player on both 3rd down & redzone

— Cecil Lammey (@cecillammey) May 22, 2013

#49ers Crabtree was targeted on 39.6% of his routes w/Kaepernick as starter LY (Wks 11-17) only #bears Brandon Marshall was targeted more

— Cecil Lammey (@cecillammey) May 22, 2013

Comfort can’t be quantified, especially when we’re talking about a young quarterback. After Kaepernick’s brilliance last year, it’s easy to forget that even including the playoffs, he still hasn’t logged a full season as a starter (he’ll start only his 10th career game in September). When he became the 49ers’ starter, there was clearly a strong and immediate connection between Kaepernick and Crabtree, one that’s now lost for most of the 2013 season.

With essentially two rookies left alongside Boldin and with Mario Manningham still recovering from his own injury, the 49ers will likely sort through the scraps of free agency to add veteran depth. We could see the return of either Randy Moss or Brandon Lloyd, both of whom induce a gagging reflex. Over at Rotoworld, Evan Silva pondered a more aggressive move by general manager Trent Baalke in the form of a trade to acquire, say, Malcom Floyd or Kenny Britt.

This is a frightening day for Kaepernick, but the downgrade for his fantasy value is marginal. He still has Boldin, along with two promising young targets in A.J. Jenkins and Quinton Patton, that Vernon Davis guy, and of course elite and deep backfield support.

He’s still easily a QB1 in all leagues, especially since his running ability will compensate for any passing shortcomings. But yeah, this sucks a lot.

Michael Crabtree is the ideal wide receiver to have in an offense that uses the run as its foundation while supplementing it with quick-strike passing. That’s because he’s able to make tacklers miss with his short-area quickness, while frequently turning short-to-intermediate routes into long gains.

It’s an ability that opens up running lanes for both Frank Gore and Colin Kaepernick, with safeties forced to respect his outside speed, and with a gang tackling mentality immediately in place once he catches the ball. Pleasant green field is also opened up for Vernon Davis, and of course Kaepernick utilizes Crabtree as his primary deep option.

Now, all of that is gone. In May.

Crabtree tore is Achilles during a workout yesterday, according to several sources. The injury will likely end his 2013 season long before it was scheduled to start, although there’s hope he could return late in the season. Terrell Suggs and Da’Quan Bowers did just that after recovering from the same injury last year, but — much like Adrian Peterson with his inhuman ACL recovery — they’re very much the exception, not the norm.

The fantasy implications of Crabtree’s injury are widespread, and both good and bad (mostly bad and horrible). Let’s embrace our hopes and fears, and run down this doom-filled list of the various victims on the 49ers’ roster, and those set to possibly benefit. I know, we’re cold and cruel and terrible.

Colin Kaepernick: There’s no way to sprinkle sugar on this. For Kaep, this is a whole lot of hurt.

Of Crabtree’s 1,105 total receiving yards in 2012, 536 of them came after the catch. That’s a lot of burst, with his yards after catching a ball accounting for 48 percent of Crabtree’s regular-season receiving total. Essentially, any time Crabtree received the ball and was given even a sliver of space, there was a chance he’d stretch that into something much more than just a short gain. That YAC ability in turn inflates Kaepernick’s passing yards and fantasy point totals.

Crabtree was a favorite and frequent target. During the first eight games of the 2012 season with Alex Smith as his quarterback, Crabtree averaged only 55 receiving yards per game. Then with Kaepernick doing the chucking, his weekly totals jumped to 83.1 yards. His weekly targets also jumped, going from 6.9 under Smith, to nine with Kaepernick.

This is also quite petrifying…

Michael Crabtree: targeted on nearly 40% of routes he ran from Weeks 11-17 with Colin Kaepernick as starter, 2nd in NFL in that span.

— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) May 22, 2013

That’s how much Kaepernick is missing now. If we include the playoffs, he’s missing the guy he looked to during 90 of his 272 pass attempts in his starts (33 percent). Usually, Mario Manningham would be a fine though not equivalent replacement as he’s asked to do his best Crabtree impression. But he’ll likely miss most of training camp after ACL and PCL surgeries, and it won’t be surprising to see him start the season on the PUP list.

Gulp? Well, sort of. See below.

Anquan Boldin: Boldin could receive most of Crabtree’s targets by default, though A.J. Jenkins and Quinton Patton will makes things a little foggy (keep seeing below). Boldin still has plenty left, which he demonstrated most recently with the 104 yards and a touchdown he posted on his now current team during the Super Bowl. Throughout the playoffs he was stupid good, with 380 total yards over the four games, with four touchdowns.

The problem is that he’s never played Crabtree’s speed game that’s filled with elusiveness and such, and with his 33rd birthday coming up in October, this old Boldin dog definitely isn’t learning any new quick tricks. He’s a sure-handed receiver who runs great routes and is able to find open space. But separating and gaining chunk yardage after the catch isn’t his style (his 2012 YAC finished at 267, which was only 29 percent of his overall yardage).

A.J. Jenkins/Quinton Patton: Suddenly, there could be some value here, and it likely resides with Jenkins. He was a first-round pick (30th overall) a year ago for a reason, and that reason is presumably because he’s good. A look back at his college numbers verifies that assumption, as he had 1,276 receiving yards during his final season at Illinois.

Jenkins was essentially a luxury pick, and he found a warm and fuzzy home on the bench for pretty much the entire 2012 season while being buried behind Crabtree, Ted Ginn, and Randy Moss. Now those three names are gone due to an injury, free agency, and a general lack of caring, leaving Jenkins and Patton in a battle to become the true outside speed option. I’ll lean towards Jenkins for now and give him the early backing as a late-round flier in deep leagues or an early season waiver pickup, partly because Patton may be better utilized as a slot receiver.

With Jenkins, comparisons have been made to Randall Cobb due to his dynamic ability which leads to widespread usage in a variety of formations.

Vernon Davis/Vance McDonald: A few weeks ago I explored the riddle of Vance McDonald, and the possibility that he could be Delanie Walker, just better. The odds of that outcome being reality increased the moment Crabtree ripped a pretty important muscle, especially with how often tight ends are moved around and lined up in the backfield in the 49ers offense.

The riddle that is Vernon Davis in a Kaepernick-led offense is much more difficult to crack, but the subtraction of a primary target — no, the primary target — can only serve to help him and provide some stability, at least in terms of his target volume. Between weeks 12 and 17 this past season — a stretch that includes six of Kaepernick’s seven regular-season starts — Davis was targeted only 12 times. Then suddenly during the playoffs, he was targeted 19 times for 254 yards over three games.

If Jenkins and/or Patton aren’t able to sufficiently replace Crabtree’s vertical ability, the Niners will likely revert to what works best when a completed pass is what they desire: rolling Kaepernick out, and making him look to Davis as his big-bodied, bruising target up the middle.

Update (5:17 p.m. ET): Chris Mortensen is reporting that Crabtree was already carved up and patched up, and now his recovery begins. And how long will that process take? Well, PFT has a pretty optimistic report of six months.

With the fantasy football regular season ending in Week 13 for most leagues, that makes Crabtree little more than a reaching, late-season waiver wire flier. Maybe in the most optimistic scenario in which he returns strong, Crabtree will be a sneaky add for playoff-bound teams.

In reality, he may make a contribution late in the season. But in fantasy, we’ll wait until the fall of 2014 to see him do something meaningful again.

Projected win totals from Vegas and the various gambling websites which readily provide you with the opportunity to get divorced from the comfort of your living room are largely meaningless for those who don’t partake in such shenanigans.

At best, they’re a loose gauge of the public’s current perception of each team and its chances to win football contests this fall. Bookies aim to make a prospective bettor’s decision difficult, and therefore after doing the required research, they set the over/unders right around where the common man believes each team’s win total will finish. Or at least that’s partly true, as more often they’re playing with your mind and influencing wagers in one direction or another.

I realize it’s some pretty heavy stuff to consider that bookies may not be entirely trustworthy people, so please pause for a moment before taking in the win totals below from Bovada which were released this afternoon.

Arizona Cardinals: 5.5
Atlanta Falcons: 10
Baltimore Ravens: 8.5
Buffalo Bills: 6.5
Carolina Panthers: 7
Chicago Bears: 8.5
Cincinnati Bengals: 8.5
Cleveland Browns: 6
Dallas Cowboys: 8.5
Denver Broncos: 11.5
Detroit Lions: 7.5
Green Bay Packers: 10.5
Houston Texans: 10.5
Indianapolis Colts: 8.5
Jacksonville Jaguars: 5
Kansas City Chiefs: 7
Miami Dolphins: 7.5
Minnesota Vikings: 7.5
New England Patriots: 11.5
New Orleans Saints: 9.5
New York Giants: 9
New York Jets: 6.5
Oakland Raiders: 5.5
Philadelphia Eagles: 7
San Diego Chargers: 7.5
San Francisco 49ers: 11.5
Seattle Seahawks: 10.5
St. Louis Rams: 7
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 7
Tennessee Titans: 6.5
Washington Redskins: 8.5

And a few thoughts…

• Based on these odds, the Jaguars will have the first overall pick next spring. So based on these odds, we’re about to witness Blaine Gabbert’s last year as a starting NFL quarterback.
• The 49ers, Patriots, and Broncos are in a three-way tie for the title of highest rated team in arbitrary win projections. The 11.5 number feels a touch high for the Pats, a touch low for Denver, and just right for San Francisco.
• The entire NFC East is within two wins of each other. The overall talent on those four teams may fluctuate, but that remains the league’s most entertaining division.
• Despite buying every player available during free agency, the Dolphins’ number is set only marginally higher than their 2012 win total (7).
• At first it seems like the Ravens are projected for a tumble during their championship defense, and indeed they’d be battling for the playoffs if they finish around that 8.5 number. But please recall that this past season — you know, the one that ended in a Super Bowl parade — the Ravens win total was only slightly higher than Bovada’s projection (10), and only one of those wins came over their last five games. Their 2012 season is our shining example that while betting is fun and talking about betting and win totals is even more great fun, the numbers above in no way even hint at which team will the 2014 Super Bowl. There are different arbitrary numbers for that.

Chip Kelly’s NFL offense is the great secret of our time, or at least it is now that we have a definitive answer as to whether or not it’s pronounced “Gif” or “Jif”. Really, the Internet conundrum on that matter rages on, and one day it may divide nations.

So far, we still know little, mostly because those who speak of Kelly’s offense in any detail are murdered shortly thereafter. A few weeks ago LeSean McCoy dropped some vague hints, saying there will be much more running, and “different sets with different backs”. Intriguing indeed, and of course the fantasy implications of what this whizz kid may or may not do are widespread, especially if his innovations can bring Michael Vick back to life.

We also have the observations of the beat writers who have spent many hours at May practices as they watch, wait, watch, and eat. They’ve largely relayed a few fun but still expected facts: there will be a significant emphasis on speed, and very little huddling. Actually, “speed” may not be the appropriate word there, although it will certainly be featured in abundance. Instead, Kelly will likely emphasize pace, pushing it often.

But every time the subject of Kelly’s offense with the Eagles comes up and what he will or won’t do is debated by anyone of prominence, it’s been common to assume that he’ll just rip the covers off of his old Oregon playbooks, and slap the Eagles logo on them.

And that feels both wrong, and too easy.

The latest victim of this low branch reaching is Ron Jaworski, the former Eagles quarterback and current guy who talks on TV. The cool kids call him Jaws, and during a Philadelphia radio appearance he expressed significant doubt regarding Kelly’s offense, and the likelihood that he’ll find success in the NFL.

From Sheil Kapadia:

“It’s going to be interesting to see if this style of offense projects to the NFL,” Jaws said during an interview with Harry Mayes and Nick Kayal on 97.5 The Fanatic. “I’m going to say no.”

“I just don’t see NFL passing concepts in this offense. It’s a movement offense by the quarterback, off the run-action, off the read-action. A lot of short, quick passes, dart routes, bubble screens. Very few plays down the field with NFL passing concepts.”

He continued, saying that the NFL isn’t, in fact, college football. The two are different leagues, you see, with entirely different levels of skill. Please go on…

“The NFL is a different league with fast players that have all week to prepare for you. At the collegiate level, you have 20 hours to prepare for that Oregon offense. Take out three hours of game time. You’ve got 17 hours in the course of a week to practice and prepare for that style of offense. It kills you in college. But in the NFL, these guys work 17 hours a day. A day, not a week – 17 hours a day getting ready, so there’s no secrets.”

I chose to highlight this because it’s another example of groupthink regarding Kelly’s offense, and perhaps a more prominent one. Kelly has said repeatedly that his offense will be catered to the personnel on the field, and while there will surely be elements of what he did at Oregon on display, thinking that it will be an exact replica and therefore he’ll fail is simply foolish.

Kapadia notes that while much of what Jaws references — the bubble screens and quick passing — has been on display during OTAs, quarterbacks have also been dropping back conventionally, and chucking it deep. So if we then make an ill-advised attempt to read between those blurry lines, it’s likely that the final product we see from Kelly in September will be a sort of hybrid.

But really, I’m just making a (slightly) educated guess there based on limited information. I don’t know what offense we’ll see from the Eagles, and neither does Jaws. We’ll all just have to wait until the fall, and then keep waiting throughout the season to see if worked. Then, sometime next January, we’ll decide if it will keep working.

I’d like to say that when I look back on this offseason, the highlight will be a humble man trying to sell socks. Unfortunately, nature and the evil hand of time has stepped in, and over a stretch of just a few months two of the league’s greatest middle linebackers have retired. First, it was Ray Lewis, and now Brian Urlacher.

After Urlacher walked away from a contract offer from the Bears to become a free agent, there was only mild interest in his services on the open market. Ultimately, that along with his decline over the past few seasons led to his decision to retire which he announced today. It’s a decision that’s felt inevitable for a while.

Here’s his statement:

“After spending a lot time this spring thinking about my NFL future, I have made the decision to retire. Although I could continue playing, I’m not sure I would bring a level of performance or passion that’s up to my standards. When considering this, along with the fact that I could retire after 13-year career wearing only one jersey for such a storied franchise, my decision became pretty clear.

“I want to thank all the people in my life that have help me along the way. I will miss my teammates, my coaches, and the great Bears fans. I’m proud to say that I gave all of you everything I had every time I took the field. I will miss the great game, but I leave with no regrets.”

Urlacher is choosing to see his glass as half filled with liquid, which is the natural instinct of both an athlete, and on a more basic level, a person who’s walking away from the only profession he’s ever known. A rare and unique profession too which requires intense and physically punishing training, which is equaled by the routine abuse players are exposed to every Sunday. But it’s the build up to those Sundays — both throughout the offseason, and weekly during the season — that’s the root of the adrenaline infusion, and the abrupt disappearance of that energy is what can make retirement a scary thought.

Realistically, though, while Bears fans will rightly celebrate Urlacher’s career, he didn’t actively choose to play for only one team. Had the situation and — much more importantly — the money been right, he would have signed on for a brief twilight stint somewhere. There were multiple links to the Vikings, but in the end instead of signing an aging slow guy, Minnesota is content with sliding Erin Henderson over to play the middle, an unnatural position.

He could have waited for someone to bust something during OTAs, or later in August, but that would have been an even less dignified end to what was a legendary career. Fading in a different NFL outpost is fine, and it’s been done before. But being relegated to a meager replacement is a tough way to go.

So what do we see when we look back on his career, and Urlacher’s time in Chicago? You’ll remember the whole lot of hurt that Urlacher dealt out in abundance, which could make you forget how good he was in coverage.

In addition to his seven seasons with at least 90 tackles (1,052 in total), 11 total forced fumbles, and 41.5 sacks, he also recorded 85 passes defensed, with a single-season high of 12. His combination of pass coverage ability and instincts to diagnose a run and fill a hole quickly puts Urlacher in rather unique company, according to ESPN Stats and Information. Since the sacks stat became official in 1982, Urlacher is one of four players in league history to record at least 40 career sacks along with 20 interceptions. He’s also one of only seven players to win both the defensive rookie of the year and player of the year awards.

He was that damn good. He was also a crazy man, and an innovator who tried to invent rules in the middle of a game. Yes, he was truly ahead of his time.

The NFL offseason is both a time, and a place. It’s a place where dreams can be made. Usually, football dreams, with the rah rah undrafted free agent Rudy types rising from the spring OTA ashes to their place of fall dominance. Ahhh yes, poetry.

But there are so many other dreams which are realized too. When they’re not doing things to sculpt their finely-tuned athletic machine bodies like lift weights, run, and eat apples, players have a lot of time to kill. A whole hell of a lot. That especially applies to players who are employed by teams that didn’t make the playoffs, as they haven’t played a competitive snap since early January, and as we sit here now in late May there’s still just over two months left until training camp.

That’s a chasm of space, and the mind wonders. For some, that leads to stupidity (hi, Mike Goodson). But others find the time to chase their entrepreneurial dreams with completely normal pursuits that you would associate with large football men. For example, Von Miller started a poultry farm at his Dallas area home earlier this offseason, and he also put chicken ink on his arm. That man loves his chicken.

So, how’s Plaxico Burress keeping busy? With his luxury men’s sock line, of course.

And you know what, good on you, Plax. We’re all aware of the far worse ways he could be spending his offseason. Like, say, planting a bullet in his groin. And really, what kind of ‘Merica are we dealing with if a man can’t pursue his life-long vision of charging people $24 for a pair of socks?

That’s the price you’ll pay to get in on the Plaxico Burress Collection socks, though sales happen sort of frequently (the “Maven” model is 25% off right now!). The Steelers receiver is going all in on this too, as he’s been making the media rounds to promote the brand, and he started a website and a Twitter account called “@PlaxicosSocks” which comes complete with a pretty cuddly looking sock puppet guy in the background.

Those rounds included a swanky event at a New York club last week which was covered by the New York Times. The socks will be released for retail next month, and as you can see below, they’re more than just socks. They’re a lifestyle.

Yeah, I dunno.

Matthew Stafford is an odd guy. No, not because of his innovative offseason workout habits. You party on, Matty.

He’s intriguing because with OTAs beginning for most teams now and with the NFL offseason clock quickly clicking towards training camps (oh gawd move faster please thanks), projecting what Stafford we’ll see in 2013 is difficult. He’s not unique in that sense, especially among his quarterback peers. Often unless your last name is Rodgers or Brady or Brees or Manning (arguably both Mannings, but definitely Peyton), there’s little need for concern. The rest, though, usually have at least one lingering question mark.

For Stafford, his best efforts to create apprehension could actually be beneficial and result in fine fantasy value.

Oh, and money. That too.

This past season, Stafford side-armed his way into becoming the root of your seething fantasy rage. Let me take you back to a time when we were all feeling the pain of the sporadic Stafford rock-skipping chuck. After he watched far more Stafford tape than the normal dosage doctors recommend, our boy Alen Dumonjic wrote this in late November:

Stafford’s footwork continues to be undesirable, blatantly showing a lack of proper technique at the quarterback position. He doesn’t transfer his weight with any sort of consistency, as instead he tends to open his hips and then just let the ball fly. This was troublesome last season as well, when he tended to do more of the leaning back like Kobe Bryant on a fade away jump-shot. He still does that and it’s still a problem, because despite all his arm strength, he easily puts a cap on it due to his lack of weight transfer. Instead of his weight coming forward, it’s all on his back foot whether he’s leaning back and throwing or simply just opening his hips up and throwing.

It was downright weird, and maddening. We know that he has the arm strength to make long and accurate throws, and we know he has the footwork to plant properly to ensure the highest level of accuracy. Yet increasingly throughout last season, we saw wobbly and wayward throws which were needlessly rushed.

Statistically, the results showed in his INT:TD ratio. A year after throwing a career high 41 touchdown passes, Stafford’s TD total fell to just 20. That number was only three higher than his 17 interceptions, after the gap between those two digits was 25 in 2011. His decline in fantasy scoring then which saw Stafford fall from being among the elite quarterbacks to still being sort of alright, but sandwiched in between two rookies with his 263 points (Andrew Luck and Russel Wilson) was almost solely a product of that drop in scoring, which equaled a decrease of 66 points.

Early indicatations are that’s what will also lead to a sizable discount. So basically, we could all benefit from Stafford falling from being stupid good, to only moderately good. Neat.

Stafford has essentially had only two fully healthy seasons, so gauging which Stafford we’ll see in 2013 isn’t something that’s easy. I’ll lay out a few fun facts which highlight why there’s a very good chance the 2011 model will resurface.

• Despite the fall in scoring, Stafford experienced only a very minimal drop in overall yardage (from 5,038 to 4,967).
• That gap can partly be blamed on a lack of diversity among his targets, and a deep threat who isn’t named Calvin Johnson. Both Ryan Broyles and Nate Burleson went down, contributing to a sharp decline in +40 yard completions (from 16 in 2011 to 9). Burleson will easily return for Week 1, and Broyles will likely follow shortly after.
• Although Joique Bell provided some pass-catching pop out of the backfield with 485 receiving yards, the addition of Reggie Bush brings an opportunity for even greater open field chunk yardage. His single-season high is 742 receiving yards.
• But what’s perhaps most encouraging is the Lions offense, and the tendency to throw the football a whole lot. Stafford has led the league in pass attempts for two straight seasons (most notably in 2012, with 727 attempts, and Drew Brees was way behind in second with 670). That high volume will consistently keep hope alive for promising returns.

Keep in mind all of those compelling reasons to ignore the immense pain you experienced after investing a first-round pick in Stafford last fall, and now let’s return to that wondrous notion of value, because the pick you’ll have to use on him could be significantly lower this year.

Last August, Stafford was on average the fourth quarterback off the board, selected around 16th overall in the second round. That’s what led to so many ponds filled with your tears.

But among people who care passionately enough to do a lot of mock drafting in May, Stafford’s stock is falling due to uncertainty, and whether or not we’ll see 2011 Matty or 2012 Matty this fall. Through 368 mocks at My Fantasy League, Stafford has been — again, on average — the 10th quarterback off the board at about 62nd overall in the sixth round. That’s a fall of over four rounds which gets even better over at Fantasy Football Calculator, where he’s being drafted at about 71st overall through 522 drafts.

Any risk associated with Stafford is beginning to becoming easily manageable and marginalized at those draft positions, and he’s even beginning to creep towards the late-round QB wheelhouse.

It seems what once looked impossible may now be true, and the Jets really do care about our mental well being.

Frankly, I’m not sure if this world is ready for a full-blown Jets quarterback competition that stretches deep into the August sun. Such an event would prompt end times, and the very Earth on which we live would look something like this…

End days indeed. Also maybe…delicious days?

But with David Garrard gone after he retired due to a still lingering knee injury, one survivor has been voted off the island by default. So now the real competition between Mark Sanchez and Geno Smith has started early during OTAs. That means, mercifully, it could end early too.

Oh yes, we could have our reprieve, and be spared from the wrath of the Jets beat writers following a competition all summer in which the winner may actually end up being the losingest winner (follow? Good). Today Manish Mehta of the New York Daily News asked Jets offensive coordinator Marty Mornhinweg if, hypothetically, either Smith or Sanchez were to gain enough separation over just 10 OTA practices, would they already be declared the starter before training camp?

His response was definitive at first:

“Oh, absolutely. Sure. Absolutely. That’s all part of the process. Absolutely. Everything we do is important. Our meetings are important… the way we go about our meetings, the way we go about our preparation right now with a new system. These are very important things. Every pass we throw out there in OTAs and these practices are important.”

And then a little more indecisive when he was pressed further:

Mornhinweg made it clear that he’s not overly concerned with timelines created by people outside the organization. He surely wouldn’t call off the “full-blown competition” before training camp begins, right?

“I don’t know that… ” Mornhinweg said. “We’ll see. Really. This thing is going to play itself out. It’s going to be our competition… I want to give everybody an opportunity to show their skill and ability and their decision-making and their accuracy and their timing within this system.”

Regardless, there’s still a possibility this competition could be short lived, and for those who have put themselves through the recent pain of supporting these New York Jets, that’s a very good thing.

If a starter is named soon and before the main camp in August, he’ll have that much more time to work strictly with the first-team offense and develop in the new system, something that’s required for both Sanchez and Smith with Mornhinweg now aboard. Being named promptly would be especially beneficial for Smith, as the rookie would be given more time to develop chemistry with his new NFL targets, the same receivers he’ll have to connect with regularly.

For a rookie QB, every first-team offseason practice rep is vital, and right now Smith is splitting those reps with a guy who has done everything in his power to thoroughly demonstrate he’s not a starting caliber NFL quarterback anymore.

Type Armond Armstead’s name into YouTube, and you’ll stumble upon a six-minute clip that highlights the talent of the 22-year-old defensive lineman. As expected, there are plays of hell-raising, and backfield penetration throughout the video. It’s supposed to be that way — it’s a highlight film after all — and then once you watch a full-length game of his, you’re supposed to come away somewhat disappointed.

Except you don’t.

The plays in the video frequently appear when watching full-length games. He’s an impressive player, displaying a non-stop engine and various other traits that D-line coaches look for in their players. Power, quickness, athleticism, and versatility are some of those traits, all of which appeal to the schematically diverse New England Patriots, the team that worked him out leading up to the 2012 draft and then again this offseason prior to signing him.

Armstead’s traits also appealed to those who covered the Canadian Football League this past season. Andrew Bucholtz, editor of Yahoo!’s CFL blog 55-Yard Line, told me that Armstead was a “dominant force” who has “power and gap control.” Toronto Argonauts Player Personnel Assistant Chris Rosetti’s first three words about Armstead were “He’s a stud.”

Rosetti later raved about Armstead’s versatility, which the lineman has plenty of. He played various positions across the line, ranging from zero technique nose tackle to standup outside linebacker. One play that stood out at linebacker came against Montreal in Week 5.

The Argos were in their exotic one lineman package, with Armstead lined up at left outside linebacker. He was leaning over with his weight pressing on his right foot, in position to explode off the line and deconstruct every pass blocking fundamental the Alouettes right tackle had previously learned.

At the snap, he burst forward and sunk his pads prior to engaging the right tackle. Upon contact, the blocker popped back because of Armstead’s heavy hands, and he immediately started to lose his balance. His legs split wider and his hips changed direction as if he was a novice on a skating rink.

Armstead wouldn’t let up. He dipped his pads further down, bent his knees, and powered through his lower body. He lifted the blocker off the ground and knocked him backward. A full-slide by the Alouettes offensive line aided the right tackle, however, as the right guard bumped Armstead to cease the rush.

The rush was slowed, but it was impressive nonetheless.

Armstead is unlikely to spend much time at linebacker for the Patriots despite his athleticism and agility, though. He’s likely to serve as a one or three technique defensive tackle in a four-man front, and perhaps a five technique in a three-man front because of his 6-foot-5, 298-pound frame. That’s what Rosetti thinks Armstead can play, as does Bucholtz.

“I see him mostly as an NFL defensive end, but one who’s more of a power rusher/run-stopper than a pure speed guy, and one who could rotate inside in certain packages,” Bucholtz said. “I think Armstead will work out well for the Patriots, but a lot depends on how well he can adjust to the different game and the different roles they’ll want him to play.”

Whichever technique Armstead does play, there will be a lot of coaching to take in. He’s still raw as a pass-rusher despite what some of the impressive videos show; he sometimes fails to bend his knees, and he can play with tall pad level as a result. And there’s always improvement to be made with hand usage, which is mandatory for success in the NFL.

But with Armstead’s physical skill-set and what Rosetti calls a work ethic that “makes players around him better,” the Patriots appear to have a defender who has top-90 talent, and upside that’s through the roof.

Lead pic via Patriots Life

Throughout the summer we’re going to track every table scrap of information on the notable, fantasy-relevant position battles. Sometimes there will be urgent breaking news which shakes the very foundation of the man-made structure you currently find yourself in. Other times, the meaning will be marginal.

Today is the second one.

Maybe. Probably. I dunno.

Eagles head coach Chip Kelly has repeatedly said that he’ll have a competition at the quarterback position throughout OTAs and training camp, even though business sense says that Michael Vick is the clubhouse leader at this point due to his $3.5 million signing bonus. But according to the Philadelphia Inquirer’s Jeff McLane, this happened yesterday…

Nick Foles had the slight edge in quarterback repetitions with the first team. According to my math, Foles took 21 snaps and Michael Vick had 15. Vick had the edge last Monday. Vick took 21 snaps to Foles’ 16 with the second team. Matt Barkley’s snaps with the third team increase dramatically over last Monday. He had 21 to Dennis Dixon’s 5 and G.J. Kinne’s 2. I’ll have more on the quarterback competition later today and in tomorrow’s Inquirer.

Kelly really wasn’t screwing around when he said those things about having a real competition. Your initial reaction may be to shrug Foles’ increased first-team snaps off as little more than that: competition. But that may not be entirely true.

If Barkley doesn’t start to see first-team snaps soon, we can make the pretty safe assumption that he’s not part of any competition, and it’s realistically down to Foles and Vick. Then the next step is to gauge who runs the read-option more effectively, at which point you’ll make another seemingly obvious assumption: Vick, because he’s fast and mobile and stuff.

That may ultimately be true. But as Phil Sheridan notes, during this offseason of oddness in Philly, an edge at any point for Foles can’t just be tossed aside:

The perception that Vick would have an edge because of his experience and mobility has wilted a bit in the face of reality. Nick Foles took slightly more reps with the first-team offense. It is too early to make pronouncements about that, but it isn’t a great sign for Vick. He will be 33 next month. If the 24-year-old Foles has the edge already, that probably tells us more about Kelly’s thinking than Kelly is willing to say out loud.

Although it may be a mild one, anyone other than Vick winning would still be a surprise since his style fits so well with the system Kelly is implementing, while Barkley likely needs to be developed, and Foles is a little too statuesque.

Oh and hey, quickly about that Vick thing that gave us all a good chuckle over the weekend. You know, the thing about his inability to hold a football properly despite calling quarterback his job title for 10 years. It’s definitely absurd that Vick needed Kelly to show him the proper way to hold a ball while on the run, and he deserves all your laughs and ridicule. But every coach he’s worked with in the NFL — including position coaches, and offensive coordinators — deserves equal, and maybe even greater scorn.

Vick is now on his fifth professional football head coach, and somehow only Kelly has noticed or attempted to change a significant flaw involving a fundamental skill. That’s an astounding level of incompetence from the people tasked with teaching Vick football stuff over a lot of years.

I know this is shocking, but it’s been nearly three weeks since the last time we passed along a Robert Griffin III injury update of some kind. Specifically, 20 days and 20 nights have passed, and I’m pretty sure that’s illegal.

Since most of these posts will sound similar until, oh, August, I’ll keep this one bite-sized.

Alright, ready? Here’s what Redskins general manager Bruce Allen said yesterday (from the Washington Post):

“It’s too early to tell right now. He is doing everything that the doctors want him to do. He’s a great worker. I think that’s why there’s so much optimism that he’ll be ready at the beginning. But it’s really too premature to speculate on where his medical condition is until we give him a physical when training camp starts July 25.”

While that sounds like a whole lot of company line spewing because it mostly is, there are still two at least moderately important takeaways.

First, we now have a firm date as to when we can expect a more concrete update, and therefore when we can also get at least a tenuous grasp on Griffin’s early-season playing status. If that late July medical re-check goes sort of smoothly, then those who enjoy reaching for a quarterback in fantasy drafts can feel fine doing so, or at least fine given the circumstances. Let’s put it this way: if your 2013 fantasy team sucks, it won’t be because RG3 combusts. It’ll be because you insist on drafting a quarterback too early…any quarterback.

The other little notable nugget we can glean from Allen’s latest Griffin address is that the caution he’s applying to his words is increasing as the offseason moves along. While he may still be optimistic, that emotion has been replaced by a need to acknowledge realism.

In fantasyland, Griffin missing even just two starts sucks. But in Redskins land, the offense can easily chug along temporarily with Kirk Cousins under center, while the franchise quarterback whom they hope to have healthy for a decade or so gets whatever recovery time he requires.

We took a little sabbatical yesterday. You may have noticed, or at least I hope you noticed, because if you didn’t that makes me sad. In hindsight I suppose I could have been courteous and kind with an announcement informing you of our Monday absence around these parts, while directing you to pursue your Internet procrastination elsewhere.

For our American friends who aren’t aware, it was a long weekend here in the great nation of Canada, the one when we annually celebrate Queen Victoria’s birthday with many barley-based beverages. Good times were had by all I’m sure, and in less than a week the U.S. of A will have its own three-day weekend festivities. Sunshine for everyone.

Anywho, where did we leave off Friday when we last spoke? Ahhh yes, we were discussing a pretty important injury to a pretty important player that may or may not effect his status for training camp. Yeah, about that…

This morning we learned that Tony Romo had a cyst removed from his back last month. At some point, the amount of times a 33-year-old quarterback has to be craved by a knife will add up. But Romo said the absolute worst case scenario is that he’ll miss the team’s mini-camp in early June, though he hopes to be ready for that.

He will, however, miss the Cowboys’ first round of OTA practices which start today. That was the only sort of awful news, as Romo said if he had to play in a game this week, he’d do it. I suppose a guy who once played with a punctured lung would say something like that.

From the Dallas Morning News:

“If this was the regular season and I had to play next week, I could,’’ Romo said Monday night on the eve of the Cowboys first OTA of the off-season. “This is just about being smart.

“That’s why I did it now. This will have no effect on training camp. No way will it have an impact. And I still think there’s a good chance I’m on the field for mini-camp.’’

Cool deal, Tony. There are high, optimistic hopes for Romo this year if we assume that the addition of first-round center Travis Frederick can keep him upright with a little more frequency, and he could then join the upper echelon of fantasy producers at his position…maybe. In 2012 Romo had 271 fantasy points, while Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, and Tom Brady each had more than 320.

Hey, remember Week 11 last year when he was sacked seven times by the Browns?

Remember earlier this morning when I wrote about the great Rob Gronkowski problem of 2013? Now that his fourth forearm surgery is officially scheduled for next week, there was optimism that he’ll be fine for your fantasy drafts in August. Even though there’s still significant risk that comes with a Gronk pick, it’s balanced by the far more significant reward.

Yeah, about that.

Now we’ve learned that in addition to the lingering forearm ailment, Gronkowski also has a back problem which will likely require surgery. Yes, more time being carved with a knife. Oh joy.

Mike Garafolo from USA Today has the details from a source, who told him the issue isn’t related to a previous disc surgery that cost Gronkowski his entire 2009 season at Arizona:

The person, who spoke on condition of anonymity because of the Patriots’ policy of not publicly detailing injuries, said the issue is with a different disc than the one that needed to be shaved down via surgery in 2009 and that a final decision on whether surgery will be required has not yet been made. The person said Gronkowski will see noted spine specialist Robert Watkins in the near future, after next week’s surgery to install a new plate into his forearm.

The source also indicated that if surgery is required, Gronkowski’s recovery time from both his forearm procedure and this new surgery won’t change, and he’ll be ready for football activities in early August. That source dreams about jelly beans.

Albert Breer adds that an MRI took place yesterday, and surgery “looks likely“. For those keeping score, if he does indeed need a surgeon to cut into his back it’ll be Gronkowski’s sixth surgery in his young career.

If you’re in a keeper or dynasty league, one of your buddies is breaking out in hives right now. Communicate through whatever means are necessary (e-mail, text, phone call, morse code) and make him a low-ball offer. For a cheap price, the time is right to embrace the risk with Gronkowski, because again, the reward factor here will beat that risk in a bloody fist fight any day.

But in standard re-draft leagues, well, this is why not holding your draft until late in August or often in early September is a thing that smart leagues do. The uncertainties and concern surrounding Gronk won’t be put to rest until we see him functioning normally — or something close to it — in a preseason game.