Jul 29, 2010

King Dealt For Della Rovere
Posted by Jonathan Willis

Most everybody has heard by now of yesterday’s trade that saw the St. Louis Blues send enforcer D.J. King to Washington in exchange for forward prospect Stefan Della Rovere. It’s a relatively minor trade – a role player on one team for a depth prospect on another – but there were a few things about it I wanted to comment on.

First, some might object to my description of Della Rovere as a depth prospect, given that he’s twice represented Canada at the World Juniors and is just about as famous as a seventh round pick without an NHL game to his credit can be. The reality though is that while Della Rovere brings some things that don’t show up on the stats sheet – at the junior level he’s a premiere agitator – he is a small player who is going to struggle to generate offence as a professional. How bad is his offence, since he’s generally projected to be a Matt Cooke-type player? Well, let’s put it this way: in his draft year, Cooke scored 45 goals and recorded 91 points. In the two years since his draft year, Della Rovere has scored 45 goals and recorded 92 points. This is a player who projects in the sub-20 point range at the NHL level right now, and he desperately needs an offensive breakthrough as a professional – in either the AHL or possibly even the ECHL 0 if he wants to stay on NHL radar screens.

D.J. King has had some injury trouble and has just four goals and nine points in 101 NHL games, but he’s a pretty successful big league scrapper, with a career record of 18-4-5 according to hockeyfights.com.

This is a pretty good example of the way the trade route can occasionally be more efficient for NHL general managers than free agency. We observed other heavyweights (Jody Shelley and Derek Boogaard) get big money in free agency, and even if I believed an enforcer was an absolute must I’d have difficulty justifying the kind of money paid to those two when I could just flip a fringe prospect for a legitimate heavyweight.

This is also a good example of why it’s a bad idea to waste draft picks on heavyweight fighters – they always seem to be available for the equivalent of a late round pick, so blowing a third round pick on a guy who might one day develop into a player anyone can acquire for a fifth round pick doesn’t make any sense at all.

This is basically a no-lose move for St. Louis; as St. Louis Today writer Dan O’Neill points out, the team still has Cam Janssen and there aren’t many scenarios where it makes sense to dress two players with such specific roles. Ultimately, King’s health meant that he was the one deemed expendable.

I can understand the desire of some Capitals fans to have an enforcer on the team once again, and given that the team should run away with the Southeast I’d say they can more afford to spend a roster spot on a guy like King than most teams, but I had to laugh at some of the reactions. From On Frozen Blog:

The era of peacenik puck in D.C. has ended.
Mercifully. And emphatically.
Good riddance.
May it never return.
Here’s its tally sheet: zero Cups won, one playoff series won (barely), zero opponents intimidated. (Ever.)

I laugh because this was a regular-season move, not one made with the playoffs in mind. Virtually every team in the league slashed the ice-time for its enforcers once the games started really mattering, and while there were still fights they were more often between middleweights and more rounded players with some edge. The league’s playoff fight leader was Justin Abdelkader, who recorded two of his three career fights in the playoffs – and given that he has yet to win an NHL fight, he’s not going to be claiming a heavyweight crown any time soon.

Just because this was a regular season move doesn’t automatically make it a bad one, but the idea that a lack of enforcers is what was keeping Washington from playoff wins is pretty funny.

Fun coincidence: despite those 101 games, King has never played against the Washington Capitals.

Jul 28, 2010

Fort Wayne Komets Ad Hits To Hurt
Posted by Scott Lewis

The Fort Wayne Komets have opened the creative budget in an effort to keep fans from the old IHL interested in the new swampwater CHL. Fans of the “Orange” have probably spotted this solid, if not ignorant, attempt at a TV spot:

Don’t get me wrong, I thoroughly enjoy professional (and minor-pro) teams mixing it up with creative marketing campaigns, but that hit was clearly from behind.  As someone that goes lurking for humour in just about every facet of life, I can admit it’s a funny concept; the execution leaves a little bit to be desired.  A good clean body check would have been suffice, amirite?

The Komets, along with IHL survivors out of Quad City, Dayton and Bloomington, Ill., will be competing in the freshly amalgamated CHL’s North Conference for the 2010-11 season. A Fort Wayne The Journal Gazette report addressed the importance of the Komets having some familiar rivals in their new environment:

“For the former IHL teams, it also provides what they wanted: everyone in the same conference and a schedule that will put a premium on keeping travel costs down. “

So for those aging Robbie Irons fans that love to see his number 30 hang from the rafters, there will be some familiarity in the Central Hockey League.  Maybe hitting from behind is en vogue in Indiana, I don’t know.

Jul 28, 2010

Video: Maple Leafs Draft Busts
Posted by Scott Lewis

Hey there Leaf fans,  it’s been a while since we’ve spoke.  It seems I fail to grab your attention unless I find a less than clever way to take a quick jab at that abomination you call a hockey team. I kid, I kid… although, I’m sure in some roundabout way, my old friend – taking the piss out of the Leafs – probably helped land me this here sweet job at The Score.  In all honesty, I’ve got nothing to do with this quick video spot poking a little fun at the lack of NHL draft success coming out of Toronto.  Our guys in archives had a tough time swallowing the loss of Alex Ponikarovsky last season, now he’s a King and he ain’t coming back; somebody figured it was high time we took a look at some Leafs draft busts.

Jul 27, 2010

Raymond, Moulson Preemptive Signings Prove Rewarding
Posted by Scott Lewis

An arbitrator’s ruling on a $2.4 million award for Clarke MacArthur appears to be the new bar for youthful speedsters with sniper potential.  Of course, MacArthur won’t be joining freshly re-inked scoring wingers Mason Raymond and Matt Moulson on the money train just yet.  The Atlanta Thrashers chose to reject the arbitrator’s ruling on the lofty award for 16-goal man MacArthur.  Perhaps in an effort to curtail any potential of arbitration breaking the bank for their prized young wingers, the Vancouver Canucks and New York Islanders chose to lock up Raymond and Moulson with a couple of short-term big raises.

Raymond signed a last minute two-year deal with the Canucks worth $5.1 million on Monday, after enjoying a breakout season in 2009-10 where he notched 25-goals and 53-points as one of the league’s most exciting skaters.  Raymond, 24, is figured in as one of the Canucks’ top-six forwards for next season and re-signing him without taking up too big of salary cap chunk was one of general manager Mike Gillis’ top priorities this offseason;

“There was a range of potential awards and when we looked at it after sitting down and having some discussion we were able to find mutual agreement for a contract that both rewards Mason for his performance and the increase he has had in his statistical performance over the last couple of years and yet gives the club a measure of stability as we move through our salary cap plans for the next two years…” – Mike Gillis, excerpt from the Vancouver Sun

For Moulson, the $2.45 million 1-year deal is a tick above the ill-fated arbitration ruling awarded to MacArthur, and worth every penny in comparison as Moulson led the Islanders with 30-goals last season. As Greg Wyshynski at Puck Daddy alluded to earlier today; the Moulson signing robs hockey fans of all of the fun of arbitration, but it could prove to be a suave decision by the 26-year old. Another productive season with the Isles could net Moulson and even bigger payday as an unrestricted free agent at the end of the 2010-11 season. Then again, Moulson may fade into oblivion as a one-year wonder and the Isles can let him walk.

Matt Moulson earned $575,000 last season with the Islanders, while Raymond earned $760,000 from the Canucks. Both players now find themselves in a new tax bracket, and very soon they’ll be introduced to the increased expectations that come with their raises.

Jul 27, 2010

NHL Teams and Their Nicknames
Posted by Scott Lewis

The Palm Beach Post has been running a feature on how professional sports teams got their nicknames, and they’ve finally got around to the only sport that matters… hockey, obviously. Although many current NHL teams have fairly obvious explanations for their nickname (i.e. Washington Capitals, New York Islanders, Anaheim Ducks, etc.), others have a more esoteric explanation for their moniker.

The Buffalo Sabres, for instance;

“Owners had an interest in polo and were fascinated with cavalry, knight and chivalry themes.”

Interesting, I’m assuming that ownership would have ran with the Buffalo “Wings” had it not been for those original 6ers in Detroit. The Red Wings, coincidentally, have an equally hermetic explanation for their famed winged wheel;

“Founded in 1926 as the Detroit Cougars, the team was renamed Falcons in 1930. In 1932, the new owner, who had once played for Winged Wheelers of Montreal Amateur Athletic Association, renamed team “Red Wings” and adopted winged wheel logo.”

Perhaps my personal favorite is the legend of the New Jersey Devils’ satanic beginnings. I’ve got a thinking this suspicion that this “devil child” may be New Jersey’s own Glenn Danzig;

“When the Colorado Rockies moved to New Jersey in 1982, newspapers held a naming contest that led to Devils. The legend of “New Jersey Devil” dates back 250 years. It says a woman in southern New Jersey who dabbled in witchcraft gave birth to a 13th child, a demonic creature that was part man, bat, snake and kangaroo. Creature supposedly continues to torment region.”

Check the Palm Beach Post article for full explanations for all 30 NHL clubs. Here’s to hoping somebody comes up with a list explaining the origin of players’ nicknames. That would make for a few laughs and probably a gasp or two.

Jul 25, 2010

The League’s Best Even-Strength Scorers
Posted by Jonathan Willis

PITTSBURGH - MAY 12:  Sidney Crosby #87 of the Pittsburgh Penguins skates against the Montreal Canadiens in Game Seven of the Eastern Conference Semifinals during the 2010 NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs at Mellon Arena on May 12, 2010 in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.  (Photo by Gregory Shamus/NHLI via Getty Images)

Over the last three years, 27 players have accomplished an impressive feat.  They are the only forwards in the NHL to meet two criteria: play 40+ games each season, and average more than 2.00 points for every sixty minutes of even-strength ice-time.

I chose those criteria because I was interested in finding out which players consistently put up big points at even-strength.  Even-strength scoring is sometimes a different skill than power play scoring; while both involve putting the puck in the net, the NHL has its share of players who can put up points but aren’t that good at handling a regular shift or who consistently perform well at five-on-five play but never get much credit because they don’t have the power play numbers to inflate their point totals.

Here are the 27 players who met the criteria, ranked by their average season performance.  Data courtesy of behindthenet.ca:

RankPlayer2007-082008-092009-10Average
1Sidney Crosby3.3833.413.26
2Alexander Ovechkin32.863.73.19
3Daniel Sedin2.092.974.043.03
4Henrik Sedin2.162.793.962.97
5Evgeni Malkin3.23.072.622.96
6Ilya Kovalchuk2.722.612.912.75
7Joe Thornton2.842.332.762.64
8Pavel Datsyuk2.762.912.132.60
9Daniel Alfredsson3.122.212.122.48
10Nicklas Backstrom2.182.223.032.48
11Jarome Iginla2.852.462.062.46
12Dany Heatley2.952.22.22.45
13Jason Spezza2.932.072.332.44
14Tim Connolly2.42.642.242.43
15Marian Hossa2.072.752.432.42
16Henrik Zetterberg2.832.122.292.41
17Ryan Getzlaf2.262.432.552.41
18Jason Pominville2.752.192.242.39
19Corey Perry2.252.52.312.35
20Eric Staal2.242.322.482.35
21Nik Antropov2.332.12.592.34
22Martin St. Louis2.032.442.52.32
23Thomas Vanek2.232.372.312.30
24Andrew Ladd2.182.612.112.30
25Vincent Lecavalier2.422.112.272.27
26Jonathan Toews2.172.42.152.24
27Kristian Huselius2.112.092.232.14

Things I notice off that list:

  • The Sidney Crosby/Alexander Ovechkin dominance probably doesn’t come as a surprise to anyone who has watched NHL hockey the last few years; both players are sublime talents and both do well at what may be the forward’s most important skill: putting up points on a level playing field.
  • The Sedin twins rank quite highly by this metric; neither is an elite power play talent (though both are good) but at five-on-five they are among the league’s most effective forwards, not just at scoring but also at out-scoring.  While even Canucks fans have often been frustrated with their style of play, it’s brutally effective.
  • There are some interesting names around the middle of the list.  There was a lot of trade speculation circulating around Jason Spezza, with conventional wisdom indicating that his contract and injury concerns make him untradeable.  He is a gamble, but when healthy he gets results.  I was also interested to see oft-injured Sabres’ forward Tim Connolly rank where he did given that in the opinion of some in Buffalo he’s a liability to his team.  When healthy, he’s a legitimate first-line forward; and although his injury concerns mean it would be foolhardy to slot him there, he’s a guy with value.
  • Nik Antropov!  Ever since Toronto went off the board to select the big Kazakh back in 1998, Antropov has been subjected to considerable scrutiny and has often failed to live up to the lofty goals set out for him.  After two decent seasons, he quietly led the Thrashers in scoring this last year.  His 46 even-strength points this year tied him with Evgeni Malkin and put him just ahead of much more heralded players like Pavel Datsyuk and Vincent Lecavalier.
  • Over the last three seasons, Andrew Ladd has scored one power play goal.  Just one.  While virtually every other player on this list gets sent out for regular shifts on the power play, Ladd does not.  All he does is make the best use of the even-strength ice-time he gets; relative to the league as a whole he’s easily a top-six forward at five-on-five, and arguably a first-line guy in that situation.

Jul 24, 2010

Steve Yzerman, Two Months In
Posted by Jonathan Willis

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It’s been a busy couple of months for Steve Yzerman.

 

Since being hired at the end of May, the general manager of the Tampa Bay Lightning has gone through his first entry draft, guided his first team through free agency, pulled off some big trades, and added a coaching staff.

 

When the Lightning hired Yzerman, I was more cautious than most, saying “This was a good hire.  But it’s going to be a while before we know if Yzerman is a good NHL general manager.”  The reasoning there – that despite the solid resume we didn’t know what Yzerman would do with the job – was valid, but the early results have been very impressive indeed,

 

I’m going to leave the 2010 Entry Draft alone for the most part, since we don’t know how much of that was Yzerman and how much of that was his scouting staff, but I will say I’m happy with what they did.  After adding Brett Connolly early on and Brock Beukeboom some time later (a bit of a gamble with Connolly but I understand both picks) the Lightning stockpiled a bunch of undersized defencemen with great offensive totals in Major Jr. hockey – guys who may never play in the NHL, but also guys with more potential to have an impact if they do make the show than the average late pick.

 

The hiring of Guy Boucher was a bold move and one I’m firmly in favour of.  Boucher has carved out a reputation as an innovator at a very young age, he’s a highly educated man in a profession that doesn’t always value that, and he isn’t afraid to say what he thinks.  He was also the AHL coach of the year last season (more on Boucher here).  Boucher brings along two men who he has history with; both Martin Raymond and Daniel Lacroix assisted him in Hamilton last year and Raymond coached with Boucher in the QMJHL.  The coaching staff is rounded out by Wayne Fleming, who has a highly impressive resume and who seemed to do a good job in Edmonton last year.   Fleming brings nice balance to a younger coaching group.

 

Yzerman next chose to buyout enforcer Todd Fedoruk after he cleared waivers; it was a solid move for the team despite the cap implications.  Last season, Fedoruk played fourth line minutes and the Lightning posted terrible results with him on the ice.

 

The next move was a salary dump, as Yzerman sent away Andrej Meszaros, a good two-way NHL defenceman who hadn’t brought much offence to the table over two seasons with Tampa Bay but was signed for $4.0 million per season.  Meszaros had recorded 39, 35 and 36 points in his three NHL seasons prior to signing with Tampa Bay; over two years with the Lightning he recorded just 33 points – simply not enough offence to justify his salary, despite his above average defensive game.  Yzerman was able to get a second round draft pick out of the Flyers in that move.

 

On the same day, Yzerman brought in 1A/1B-type goaltender Dan Ellis on a two year, $1.5 million per season deal, apparently to compete with Mike Smith for the starting job.  I’m a big fan of employing two goaltenders of this type; the odds are good that one of them will be at least a serviceable starter, it’s a cheap system and there’s insurance and competition built-in.  It’s a system Detroit has had a lot of success with and I’m not even a little surprised to see Yzerman go that route.

 

Also on July 1, Yzerman locked up Martin St. Louis on a four year deal that will see him with a cap hit of $5.625 million each year over the next four seasons.  This is a big deal given St. Louis’ hesitancy to sign in Tampa Bay; they could ill-afford to lose him.  The dollars were reasonable and if there’s one place to overspend a little it is on high-end talent.

 

On July 2, Yzerman moved to replace Meszaros, signing Pavel Kubina to a two-year deal worth slightly less money.  Kubina brings a very similar skill-set to the table as Meszaros, but he’s been more effective offensively, costs less, and is signed for a shorter term.  Basically, Yzerman saved a little coin, improved the calibre of offensive defenceman he was using, and added a second round pick.  It’s really not a bad pair of moves.

 

Yzerman’s biggest move to date saw him once again return to the Flyers, this time snagging Simon Gagne out of Philadelphia for Matt Walker and a fourth round pick.  Gagne’s a fantastic player, aside from his injury troubles: he’s topped the 40-goal mark twice since the lockout, and Yzerman added him for a decent third-pairing defenceman and a late draft pick.  Given that Walker was slightly overpaid at $1.7 million, that’s great work.

 

Along the way, Yzerman stole Hamilton Bulldogs G.M. Julien BriseBois out of the Canadiens organization; the young lawyer will serve in the same role with Norfolk and also gets the title of assistant general manager with the Lightning.  He also added draft disappointment Marc Pouliot on a two-way deal, and gets credit for that: Pouliot is an incredible AHL player and at the NHL level, despite his failure to live up to his draft position, he’s been cheap and effective.  The Lightning need cheap and effective.

 

There’s still a lot of work left to be done (the Lightning’s forward corps is awfully sparse right now) but the early returns are highly encouraging.

Jul 23, 2010

Salo or the 100 Days of Injury
Posted by Scott Lewis

Vancouver Canucks often wounded defenceman Sami Salo has had more than his share of freak injuries.  After only appearing in 68-games last season due to everything from an MCL sprain to nearly bursting a testicleA report from the Vancouver Sun coming out of Finland has Sami Salo on the shelf for at least three months after rupturing his Achilles tendon playing floor hockey.  Yes, floor hockey.  Sami Salo is that soft.

Although the Vancouver Canucks have not issued a statement at this time, the reports of Salo’s floor hockey mishap should hardly come as a surprise given his injurious history.  In 11 NHL seasons, Salo has only eclipsed the 65-game mark five times.  The former Ottawa Senators 9th round pick was traded to the Canucks for Peter Schaefer.  Salo has managed to injure just about every part of his body over the course of his career including; his ribs, eyes, both legs, knees, nose, balls, feet, ankles, groins, shoulders, and now his Achilles.

The injury to Salo will likely put a damper on any immediate plans the Canucks may have for trading defenceman Kevin Bieksa.  Salo has one year remaining on a contract that keeps him at a cap hit of $3.5 million.  Salo has 273-points in 665 career games, and 26-points in 74 playoff games.

s/t Kukla’s Korner

Jul 22, 2010

Rejection is the Trend
Posted by Scott Lewis

The Atlanta Thrashers took a page from the NHL late Wednesday by choosing to reject an arbitrator’s ruling on a $2.4 million deal awarded to left winger Clarke MacArthur. MacArthur found his way to Atlanta in March of last season after the Buffalo Sabres sent him packing for a couple of draft picks. The $2.4 million awarded to MacArthur caught more than a few by surprise considering the third tier type production he’s managed over parts of four seasons.

MacArthur scored 16-goals last season between Buffalo and Atlanta, and his career high was the 17 he potted in 2008-09. That 17-goal season was in Buffalo,where just about anyone can score 15-to-20 goals – even Ales Kotalik. The Thrashers, or any team for that matter, have every right to reject an arbitrator’s ruling and allow MacArthur to become a free agent.

The fruitful arbitration ruling probably sent chills up the spine of several NHL general managers that are attempting to re-sign young mid-level talent. As Jim Matheson of the Edmonton Journal has pointed out, arbitrators work with statistics and comparables to come to their decision:

“The arbitrator usually goes on stats and comparables. When the Toronto Maple Leafs gave 23-year-old forward Nikolai Kulemin a two-year deal recently for an average salary of $2.35 million, that set the bar for the Brules and MacArthurs of the world. Kulemin had 36 points this past season.”

Matheson outlines the implications of the hefty $2.4 million MacArthur ruling as it relates to the Oilers’ desire to retain Gilbert Brule.  It should be interesting to see if his arbitration case is influenced at all by the Thrashers’ choice to walk away from MacArthur.  MacArthur’s 2009-10 output was 35-points, one shy of the ‘bar’ set by Kulemin.  The 25-year old MacArthur can still negotiate with the Thrashers as a free agent, although, it’s more likely he’ll look to take his talents elsewhere.  An NHL club electing to reject an arbitrator’s ruling isn’t completely out of the ordinary, but as our Score news team has stated… it’s rare:

“Boston was one of the first franchises to walk away from an arbitrator’s decision when it did so in 1999 for then-forward Dmitri Khristich. Most recently, Nikolai Zherdev wound up on the wrong end of the New York Rangers’ declining an arbitrator’s decision in 2009 and the Ukraine-born winger played last season in Russia.”

Clarke MacArthur is free to negotiate with any interested team, as a 25-year old unrestricted free agent.  It’s not a bad position to be in, but it’s one that may not be quite as financially rewarding as his arbitration hearing.

Jul 22, 2010

Thoughts On Kovalchuk
Posted by Jonathan Willis

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Scott Lewis has done a fine job the last couple of days weighing in on the ludicrous 17-year contract that the New Jersey Devils offered to Ilya Kovalchuk, and because of that I hesitated to comment, but given that it’s summer, this is the biggest story around and I’ve got a few thoughts that aren’t being given wide play, I’m going to toss out a few things myself.

Length Doesn’t Matter, It’s How… Never Mind

The length of Ilya Kovalchuk’s contract is understandably getting significant play, but the fixation with the 17-year mark is, in my opinion, misplaced.  To pick on one outlet, TSN compares the deal to long-term deals signed by Rick DiPietro and Alexander Ovechkin, among others.

The reality is those contracts aren’t comparable; Rick DiPietro got paid $4.5 million in 2006-07, he’ll get paid $4.5 million in 2020-21, and he’ll be paid $4.5 million every year in between.  DiPietro’s contract really kicked off the really long-term pacts that have become a regular occurrence in the NHL (give the Islanders credit – they’re trend-setters) and had the NHL had an issue with long contracts that issue would have come out then and there.  Ovechkin actually gets a modest raise in 2014-15, from $9.0 million per season up to $10.0 million per year.

Length is a non-issue here.  Gary Bettman has previously commented that he doesn’t like these long-term deals, but the NHL has shown time and again that they will allow teams to balance the risk/reward ratio for themselves.

It’s All About Selling Realism

The problem with the contract is that while a quick glimpse shows nothing wrong – crazy years, check, big dollars, check, wake me when free agency ends – anyone looking at the breakdown of the deal (as I assume everyone has by now) has to be astonished by Kovalchuk’s willingness to play for a fourth-line rate of pay (or for fans of the New York Rangers, the hypothetical rate paid to players underneath the fourth-liners) for the last six years of his contract.

Others (everyone?) have pointed out that there are plenty of contracts out there that look a little fishy, and they’re right.  Scott linked to a Behind The Net piece earlier today which compared Kovalchuk’s deal graphically with some of these other deals, but the number and impact of the fake years tacked on to the end of Kovalchuk’s contract far exceeds those handed out earlier.  Let’s compare:

  • Ilya Kovalchuk (hypothetically, as in all of these cases) will spend the final five years of his deal earning just $550,000 – less than one-tenth of the average cap hit over the 17-year deal.  In the year preceding those five, he’ll earn just $750,000.
  • Marian Hossa will earn just $1.0 million per season over the final four years of his deal – a hair under one-fifth of the average cap hit of his deal.
  • Chris Pronger will earn just $525,000 over the final two seasons of his deal, just over one-tenth the average value of his contract.  This deal probably should have been overturned by the NHL, but in this particular case the Flyers may have outsmarted themselves – because Pronger will be over 35 when the deal goes into effect, if he retires for those final two seasons the Flyers don’t get out of the cap hit, and given how little money he’ll be making (after the age of 40) there may be precious little reason for him to stick around.
  • Like Pronger, Marc Savard will earn just $525,000 over the final two years of his deal, a number that represents a little over 13% the average value of his deal.

Other players have similarly suspicious years at the ends of their deals – Duncan Keith has one, Roberto Luongo has two, Vincent Lecavalier has one (maybe two, depending on how one counts), Henrik Zetterberg has two, Johan Franzen has two, Mattias Ohlund has one, and so on.  It’s common practice for long-term deals now, and I’d suggest any general manager (at least those who have to worry about the salary cap) who signs a player to one of these long-term deals should be tagging on a few years at a reduced rate at the end of the deal, to make the cap hit manageable.  Those that aren’t bending the spirit of the CBA a little bit are putting themselves at a disadvantage.

But while it’s conceivable that the players above might be willing to play for $1.0 million or so over the last year or two of their careers, only three deals see star NHLers scraping along near the league minimum over their final years.  The Savard deal probably should have been overturned, although the fact that he earns substantially less than the other players on the list makes that offence a little less egregious.

The Pronger deal had no business being approved by the league, but Paul Holmgren is going to look like a prize idiot if Pronger does retire and the Flyers are stuck with that cap hit for two seasons thanks to the over-35 rule.  It’s a case where I’d be all too happy to see the Flyers suffer at the hands of the same rules they were attempting to circumvent.

The Kovalchuk deal really isn’t in the same ballpark as those other players.  Six years of near minimum-wage pay is more than three times as long as any other team has ever tried to worm through the NHL head office.  It sees him take a 95% pay cut over a period of six years.

The Weasel Zone

In Dilbert and the Way of the Weasel, Scott Adams talks about the “gigantic gray area between good moral behaviour and outright felonious activities,” something he calls the “Weasel Zone.”  He explains:

In the Weasel zone everything is misleading, but not exactly a lie.  There’s a subtle difference.  When you lie, you hope to fool someone.  But when you’re being a weasel, everyone is aware that you’re a manipulative, scheming, misleading sociopath.

So while we all suspect that Marian Hossa might retire a year early, leaving the Blackhawks with a salary cap discount at no cost to the team, we don’t quite know it.  the Kovalchuk contract crosses the line from being suspicious to being nearly certain; it’s a place where the NHL simply must draw the line.

But It’s Not Really A Big Deal

In the end, I doubt it’s going to matter.  The NHLPA may file a grievance, and we may see some more dancing around, but the final result seems almost certain to me: Camp Kovalchuk and the Devils will rework the contract, keep a couple of ugly looking years tacked on to the end while nixing the rest, and the contract will move from a spot where it’s plainly in violation of the CBA to a spot where it may or may not be.  Kovalchuk may give up some money, and the Devils may give up some cap space, but I suspect that will be the extent of the ramifications.

That, and we will have gained the benefit of knowing where the NHL’s leniency ends.