Archive for October, 2009

Jaroslav Halak: 4-2-0, 2.70 GAA, .898 SV%
Carey Price: 2-5-0, 3.44 GAA, .889 SV%

Those aren’t numbers that scream for Price’s return to the net, are they?

Still, delving into the performances of the two goaltenders, one item does jump out at me: even-strength save percentage. I’ve come to regard even-strength save percentage as the most reliable indicator of true goaltender value, mostly because save percentage on special teams fluctuates wildly depending on team ability or how well a unit is clicking on any given night. And even-strength save percentage shows something interesting here:

Halak: .905
Price: .918

Those numbers are interesting, given how most people view the performances of those two goaltenders this season. Since the lockout, Price’s .918 even-strength save percentage isn’t that good – five goaltenders have averaged that since the lockout (Mathieu Garon, Mikael Tellqvist, Ray Emery, Mike Smith, Martin Gerber) and none of them are exactly top-tier players. Meanwhile, only two goaltenders have a worse post-lockout average than Halak’s .905 – Andrew Raycroft and Patrick Lalime.

Why then are the overall numbers so different between the two? It’s simple, really: penalty-killing. Among starters last season, only five had a higher PK SV% than Halak’s .889 this season (although Halak last year managed a .892 SV%). By way of contrast, Carey Price’s .737 PK SV% is worse than any starter last year, by a mile – in fact, only Chris Osgood (with a .828 SV%) is close. Last year, Price managed a rather poor .843 SV% on the penalty kill – a number that would have shaved four goals off his total this year and bumped his SV% up to .907.

The point here is not that Halak is bound to regress on the PK – last year he was good, maybe he can keep it up this year – but simply that Price’s PK SV%, which is what has been sinking him, is incredibly bad and highly unlikely to continue. It would be a shame to see the Canadiens waste a talent like Price, and he needs some games – like the one he got against Chicago the other night – to show what he can do.

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Ian Penny, the embattled interim NHLPA executive director and the man perceived as the leader of a successful effort to oust Paul Kelly, has resigned from the top job at the players’ association. With Penny gone, the power structure inside the union is in disarray. Last week, Penny identified Chris Chelios as the chief thorn in his side in an internal letter, and given that Chelios was one member of a four person review board, I came to the following conclusion at the time:

Barring some extraordinary events, it’s very difficult to imagine any scenario which sees Penny continue working at the NHLPA beyond the immediate future.

The theme most commentators seem to be taking on this story is that an already battered NHLPA has fallen even closer to anarchy. A league source told Sun Media’s Bruce Garrioch that “the union has effectively ceased operations”, and Nick Kypreos of the Fan 590 claims “they’re not in a position to function on a day to day basis”. Field representatives have reportedly been ordered not to travel or do any work for the union, and Garrioch reports that the NHLPA advisory board has also stpped down. The NHLPA’s response was that it “continues to work hard on behalf of the players in all areas of the association’s business and will continue to do so going forward.”

Meanwhile, the NHLPA states that Penny told the staff that he’d been “constructively dismissed”; the wording of that is curious enough that I strongly suspect Penny’s chief goal here is to get the largest possible percentage of his new five-year contract with the players’ association, by arguing that he didn’t quit but was effectively fired by the PA when it refused to stop what Penny characterizes as “harassment” from Chelios.

I’m not at all convinced the NHLPA is in any worse shape today than it was yesterday.

Penny’s actions over the past months, including but not limited to his role in Paul Kelly’s firing, have been bizarre. He complained about leaks to the media, saying that they “have created the perception that we are an ineffectual organization that is incapable of governing itself”; this despite the fact that Penny’s ally Buzz Hargrove spoke publicly to the media, revealing details about Kelly’s alleged impropriety and complaining about the NHLPA executive board.

The fact of the matter is that if – and much of the available evidence suggests this – Penny and his allies (who the NHLPA executive board was likely to dismiss) were the principle part of the problems at the NHLPA, they had to go before things could be resolved. Penny’s feuding with Chelios and the straw poll linked to above show that they were not likely to survive the review process in any case.

Yes, it looks bad that as of this moment the NHLPA has no leader, but given the fact that it was Penny who seems to have led the charge against Kelly, and it was Penny again today who chose to resign before some sort of transition plan was in place, it’s hard to imagine that they’re worse off without him.

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Who should start in net for Team Canada at the 2010 Winter Olympics? Who should be the backup and third-string goaltender?

Despite Canada’s wealth of quality goaltenders, this is going to be a hotly debated topic no matter who gets chosen. The following are the players I regard as the front-runners, ranked in the order I’d place them in right now.

1. Martin Brodeur

So Far This Season: 6-4-0, 2.58 GAA, .910 SV%
Other Credentials: All-time NHL wins leader, three Stanley Cups, four Vezina Trophies, four Jennings Trophies, Olympic gold medal

The obvious choice, Brodeur has been Canada’s foremost goaltender since the retirement of Patrick Roy, and he remains in that position now. I think it’s easy to forget some times just how good Brodeur has been, and for how long – and despite significant losses to the Devils defence corps. He’s my pick for the starting job at this point.

2. Roberto Luongo

So Far This Season: 6-6-0, 2.79 GAA, .900 SV%
Other Credentials: Two world championship gold medals, World Cup gold medal

Luongo has been one of the league’s best goaltenders since the lockout, and although he has yet to win he’s been nominated for the Vezina, Hart and Lester B. Pearson awards. He was Canada’s backup in 2006, and despite a slow start he may very well get that job in 2010.

3. Marc-Andre Fleury

So Far This Season: 9-1-0, 2.00 GAA, .920 SV%
Other Credentials: Stanley Cup win, 2003 World Junior MVP

Marc-Andre Fleury’s name has come up before, but back-to-back appearances in the Stanley Cup finals, and a win last year have rocketed his name into the upper echelon of NHL goaltenders. After a shaky start to his NHL career, he’s been very good the last two years and could even be the starter in 2010 when all is said and done.

4. Cam Ward

So Far This Season: 2-6-3, 2.89 GAA, .910 SV%
Other Credentials: Stanley Cup win, Conn Smythe Trophy, World Championship gold medal

Although it’s escaped the attention of many, after winning the Stanley Cup in 2006 Ward was something of a disappointment to the Carolina Hurricanes up until last season. His 39 wins and .916 SV% earned him a rich new contract, and while Carolina has been slumping, Ward hasn’t been the problem.

Dark Horses (Presented Alphabetically)

Ray Emery – Prodigal goaltender has returned to the NHL after a disastrous 2008-09 with Ottawa. He played well in Russia, and is off to a good start in Philadelphia.

Chris Mason – The unheralded Mason quietly had a very good season with St. Louis last year. He was a very good minor league goaltender before getting a chance in Nashville, where he had two good seasons as a backup, one great season as a starter, and one bad season that ended with him being traded to the Blues for a draft pick. Won a gold medal with Canada at the 2007 World Championships.

Steve Mason – Mason’s rookie season last year won him accolades, the starting job in Columbus and the Calder Trophy, but he’s off to a very poor start this season and doesn’t have the track record of other contenders. Won a gold medal with Canada at the 2008 World Junior Championships.

Dwayne Roloson – Roloson’s been around forever, and because he’s both a late bloomer and a guy who has played in a few different cities he doesn’t get the respect he deserves. Was brilliant last season for the Oilers and has been strong in the early going for the Islanders. Won a gold medal with Canada at the 2007 World Championships.

Marty Turco – Turco’s been an average goaltender since the lockout, and last season was worse than that. He’s off to a strong start, and was Canada’s number three behind Luongo and Brodeur in 2006.

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Last week, we looked at the top five scorers in the Ontario Hockey League. This week, we’ll consider the top five scorers in the Western Hockey League.

1. Brandon Kozun: 16GP – 8G – 20A – 28PTS

It’s no surprise to see Kozun at the top of this list; last year he finished second in the WHL in assists (68) and points (108) and in the top-ten in goals (40). This prompted the Los Angeles Kings to take a flyer on the diminutive scorer in the last draft, taking the overager in the sixth round. He leads the Calgary Hitmen with a plus ten rating (more than twice as good as the next best forward) and he has ten points more than the next nearest forward. He’s on pace to improve his point totals from last year.

2. Willie Coetzee: 15GP – 8G – 18A – 26PTS

Despite Coetzee’s rather mediocre totals last season (72GP – 18G – 24A – 42PTS) he was invited to the Detroit Red Wings training camp, and did enough to earn a contract. Like Kozun, he’s on the small side, but he’s certainly been a pleasant surprise with his performance so far this season. Ten of his 18 goals last season came with the man advantage. He’s a teammate of Detroit’s first round pick in the last draft, Landon Ferraro.

3. Bretton Cameron: 17GP – 14G – 11A – 25PTS

It is a surprise to see Cameron’s name anywhere near this list; he’s already cracked his career-best goal total (11) and with just five more points can eclipse his career point total as well. Still, it isn’t just scoring that’s bringing attention to the undrafted 20-year old. Coach Willie Desjardins:

“He is getting more than points – he is laying down and blocking shots on the kill.”
“He is doing everything for us. He is a real key player to our team, and it is good to see him getting rewarded with points.”

4. Jordan Eberle: 11GP – 12G – 12A – 24PTS

Nobody in the WHL is scoring as prolifically as the Oilers’ 2008 first round pick. He’s on pace to nearly double his point totals from last year, and he’s certain to be the main attraction on Canada’s World Junior team this December. He had a fine professional debut last season in Springfield, and impressed in training camp with the Oilers. One of the knocks on him to date has been consistent work ethic, so the onus is on him to maintain this pace.

5. Brendan Shinnimin: 14GP – 10G – 14A – 24PTS

Shinnimin is – wait for it – another diminutive forward putting up big points early. He’ll be eligible for the 2010 draft, and his early play has put him in the running for a spot with the Canadian World Junior team. He’ll be playing in the WHL Super Series against Team Russia in November; one of the few players to play in both games. He already has almost as many points this season as he did all of last year.

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June 17th, 2009:

As for Brule wrong again. He doesn’t have to clear waivers. I have no idea why you think playing 19 games as a 19 year-old changes that. I’ve spoke with [Oilers Assistant G.M.] Rick Olczyk many times and [he's not] waiver eligible next year… I know this 100% since I spoke with Rick this week.

(The Oilers and Brule both acknowledged in training camp that Brule would need to clear waivers to be demoted).

July 1st, 2009:

Edmonton puts together a package that Ottawa finds palatable, and Bryan Murray asks Heatley to waive his NMC to go to the Oilers. Heatley says (through his agent) that he wants to “sleep on it”. At this point, we find out that neither the Oilers nor Senators have been interpreting his contract correctly — the $4 million signing bonus that Heatley is owed won’t be due until the next night. Heatley’s agent, meanwhile, knew this the entire time.

And finally, yesterday:

[Senators G.M. Bryan] Murray had previously believed the only way the team wouldn’t lose a year on Karlsson contract was if the player returned to Sweden for another year of development…

“The fact that he’s a European player, he can go to Binghamton and play and not trigger the contract,” Murray said. “We do get a slide, and that’s part of the reason, certainly, but a big part is just to let him play, become more important, hopefully be real effective on the power play and at some point make a determination if he can come back up and be a regular member here.

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From discipline czar Colin Campbell via NHL.com, this explanation of the fine issued to Rob Scuderi for his hit on Jason Chimera:

“Scuderi went really low and I felt it was a clip. Fortunately, he didn’t injure the guy. He did hurt him on the play, as far as receiving a cut. But he came back in the game, Chimera, so I didn’t think it was a fair play and we fined him.”

Greg Wyshynski delves into the depths of his vocabulary to express his dissatisfaction with Colin Campbell’s idea that an injury to Chimera would have altered the penalty handed out to Scuderi:

“He didn’t injure the guy” is a ridiculous standard of enforcement because it excuses reckless behavior as long as there wasn’t a deleterious result from the player’s actions. It also turns what are otherwise borderline plays into heinous acts; if Chimera was flipped in the air spectacularly and was injured on the Scuderi hit, why does that alter the act itself? Either Scuderi intended to injure him and/or had a reckless disregard for his safety, or it was simply a hip check gone wrong (which, in fact, it was).

It’s pretty hard to argue against Wyshynski here, given that he’s right, and given that we’re only guessing at what deleterious means (we’re familiar with heinous).

Wyshynski goes on to mention that the NHL has only three standards for enforcement (offender’s history of dirty play, injuries sustained, prevention of future actions), although I think we could add to that list; how else to explain why a star like Chris Pronger gets eight games for stomping while a goon like Chris Simon gets 25? Certainly it’s not because of Pronger’s squeaky-clean track record.

Given how questions about the fairness and effectiveness of the NHL’s disciplinary system come up each and every time something questionable occurs, I really think the league could benefit from a slightly different standard of enforcement.

What Should Be Considered

1. Track record of the offender. This one is pretty obvious. For example: if Ales Kotalik and Ryan Hollweg both hit a guy in a vulnerable spot near the boards while said victim has his back turned, there should absolutely be a difference in the punishment handed out. Hollweg has a well-earned reputation on those sort of plays, while Kotalik does not.

2. Dirtiness of the play. Again, this is pretty obvious. There’s a big difference between a hip-check gone bad like the one that Rob Scuderi threw or a hit to the head like (insert recent example here) and a cross check to the face like the one that Jesse Boulerice gave to Ryan Kesler two seasons ago. If a play was clearly related to the game action and there’s an obvious ‘I was just finishing my check…’ defence, there’s a lot more room for leniency than in clear attempt-to-injure cases.

What Shouldn’t Be Considered

1. Injury. As it stands, the NHL considers whether a player is hurt on a play before making a decision, as evidenced by the Campbell quote above. It’s silliness, as Wyshynski explained, depending entirely on luck rather than on the player’s actions or motives. A guy can be out for a long time due to a rather inadvertent play (for instance, Sheldon Souray is currently out with a concussion due to a border-line trip from Jarome Iginla) or be relatively uninjured on a serious play (like the Boulerice cross-check mentioned above).

2. Superstar Status. The league is notorious for going easier on stars than it does on other players, but honestly Chris Pronger shouldn’t have any more right to concuss Dean McAmmond than Steve Downie does. An illegal play is an illegal play is an illegal play, regardless of the name on the back of the jersey, and a two-tiered justice system only serves to diminish the NHL’s reputation and encourage players like Pronger to continue playing a dirty game.

Agree or disagree? Have suggestions of your own? Chime up in the comments section.

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Roberto Luongo suffered a hairline fracture to his rib in the Canucks’ win over Toronto last Saturday. Luongo played against Detroit on Tuesday night, but is now expected to be out for at least one week.

With that in mind, should the Canucks start backup Andrew Raycroft, or star prospect Cory Schneider in the meantime? Let’s look at the case for each.

The case for Schneider is a strong one. After being selected by the Canucks in the first round of the 2004 Entry Draft, Schneider starred at Boston College for three years before turning pro. He’s been a star in the AHL the past two seasons, posting a .928 SV% and 28 wins in 40 games last year, and backstopping the team to the Calder Cup finals. He has a six and three record this year, as well as a .910 SV%; both marks well clear of backup Daren Machesny. Raycroft, meanwhile, has been an unmitigated disaster for four seasons, all in the NHL, all with a save percentage under .900.

Still, there is a case to be made for Raycroft, the 2004 Calder Trophy winner. For starters, his play last year was his best since he was Toronto’s starter in 2006-07, and his save percentage was just south of starter Peter Budaj. Meanwhile, he’s been stellar in limited action so far this season, allowing just one goal in 53 minutes of play. At the same time, Schneider’s play this year hasn’t been nearly so good. Despite playing for one of the better teams in the league, his .910 SV% is mediocre at best. As for his .928 SV% last year, the Manitoba Moose are so responsible defensively that in 16 games last year Curtis Sanford was able to post a .936 SV%. Finally, in an eight game NHL cameo last year Schneider was clearly out of his depth, with a 2-4-1 record and .877 SV%.

Given Schneider’s importance to the organization (and Raycroft’s lack of it) I’d personally start Schneider while Luongo’s injured. That said, I rather expect that Alain Vigneault opts for the veteran option, and gives Raycroft starts until he shows he doesn’t deserve them.

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The Philadelphia Flyers have placed veteran defenceman Randy Jones on re-entry waivers.

Jones was a victim of the salary cap; with the Flyers pressed against it, they made the decision to dump Jones and his $2.75 million cap hit in the minors and use the much cheaper Ole-Kristian Tollefsen ($600,000) and Danny Syvret ($575,000) as their end-of-roster defenceman.

Jones has played 217 NHL games, all with the Flyers, and adds size, physicality and some puck-moving ability to the team.

Jones cleared waivers at the start of the season, but at that time any team claiming him would have had to take on his entire cap hit. Now the situation is somwhat different; any team signing him would only need to take half of that cap hit, while the Flyers would take the other half (they have some space if they put the injured Simon Gagne on LTIR, as Broad Street Hockey suggests). On top of that, Jones has an expiring contract – he’ll be an unrestricted free agent at the end of the season.

Is there a team out there willing to take a chance on a guy like Jones? Maybe an Eastern Conference team with a banged up defence corps? This seems like a fairly low-risk, possibly high-reward move, with the added bonus for other teams of sticking the Flyers with half the tab.

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Comparables is a series where we take the statistics of some of the young, up-and-coming players in the league and compare them to other players with a similar background to give us an impartial career projection.

We tried this last week with Canadiens’ forward Andrei Kostitsyn, and this week we’ll focus in on Toronto Maple Leafs’ centre Matt Stajan.

To start with, here’s the profile of Stajan we’ll be using. All results have been pro-rated over 82 games, as they will be with our comparables.

Matt Stajan
6’1” – 200lbs – Second round pick
23: 82GP – 10G – 29A – 39PTS
24: 82GP – 16G – 17A – 33PTS
25: 82GP – 16G – 43A – 59PTS

As with Kostitsyn, comparables were not easy to find. Stajan’s breakout campaign came at the age of 25, after four seasons of mostly running in place. It’s a rare thing for an OHL player to crack an NHL roster as a 20-year old and go that long without much improvement, and thus most of the comparables are U.S college players who didn’t turn pro until some time later. Here’s the list:

Matt Cullen
6’1” – 195lbs – Second round pick
23: 82GP – 13G – 27A – 40PTS
24: 82GP – 10G – 30A – 40PTS
25: 82GP – 19G – 31A – 50PTS

Brian Rolston 6’2” – 214lbs – First round pick
23: 82GP – 18G – 27A – 45PTS
24: 82GP – 17G – 15A – 32PTS
25: 82GP – 24G – 33A – 57PTS

Steven Reinprecht
6’ – 185lbs – Undrafted
24: 82GP – 15G – 22A – 37PTS
25: 82GP – 23G – 33A – 56PTS

The Rolston comparison is obviously the most favourable, but I’m not a huge fan of it for two reasons: first, Rolston’s stats came on a very good team (although one with comparable offence), while Stajan’s did not, and second because Rolston was a drafted 46 spots higher than Stajan. No, here I think the most likely comparison is Matt Cullen, a consistent 40-50 point scorer and a fellow second-round pick. Of course, if Stajan keeps up his near point-per-game pace I’ll have to change my tune, but that’s what I think is most likely right now.

Looking a little more in-depth, here’s where Cullen and Stajan got their points in their breakout years:

Cullen: 35 even-strength, 2 short-handed, 11 powerplay
Stajan: 41 even-strength, 3 short-handed, 11 powerplay

As before, two questions:

Does Cullen seem like a reasonable comparison?
If Stajan went on to have Cullen’s career, would that be more or less than Leafs fans expect of him?

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Steve Simmons of the Toronto Sun has a very interesting article relating the latest developments in the ongoing disaster currently ravaging the NHLPA head office. Yesterday Ian Penny, the interim executive director, sent out a six-page email to player reps, an email which contained two memos; memos identical in every respect except for one sentence. Here are the differing versions:

Version 1 – “Due to this unacceptable work environment, I am prepared to work with the Board to determine whether my employment situation can be resolved on reasonable terms.”
Version 2 – “Due to the unacceptable work environment, I am prepared to resign from the NHLPA subject to certain reasonable conditions being met.”

Understandably, the difference raised a few questions, and asked to clarify, an NHLPA spokesman gave the following statement:

“The substantive meaning is the same. Ian Penny is not resigning from the NHLPA.”

I’m pretty sure that isn’t the meaning in the emails Penny wrote; “prepared to resign” and “employment situation resolved on reasonable terms” are rather different in substantive meaning than “is not resigning”.

I have to wonder if Penny meant to include the second memo in his email; after all, it was Penny who mistakingly hit “reply all” rather than “reply” when making snide comments about Paul Kelly back in August, and it’s rather difficult to imagine a scenario where it benefits him to do it intentionally.

In any case, aside from that interesting anomaly, it appears Penny spent most of the email badmouthing Chris Chelios – the same Chris Chelios who was recently named to an internal review committee by his the player reps, a committee which will spend it’s time investigating, among other things, Penny’s new contract and the circumstances around Paul Kelly’s dismissal.

Barring some extraordinary events, it’s very difficult to imagine any scenario which sees Penny continue working at the NHLPA beyond the immediate future.

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