Archive for November, 2009

The Philadelphia Flyers currently sit ninth in the Eastern Conference. They’ve lost two games in a row. They’re 4-6-0 over their last 10 games. After bringing in Chris Pronger during the off-season, this team was supposed to be a Stanley Cup contender, not a playoff bubble team. Those results, perhaps combined with the continued lack of a coaching casualty 25% of the way through the season, have some calling for John Stevens’ job in Philadelphia.

I’d been fairly oblivious to the growing level of discontent in Philadelphia until Greg Wyshynski highlighted some articles earlier today, but once I started looking for it the signs were everywhere. There’s a Facebook group. There’s a lengthy thread over at HFBoards. There’s even a website. Is it deserved?

The argument is perhaps most succinctly put over at the Facebook page:

There is no way a team with this many good players should be at the bottom of the Atlantic.

The simplicity of the argument is appealing, but in this case I’m not at all sure it’s fair. Most fans would quickly admit that the way to win games is to score more than the opposition, and interestingly that’s something the Flyers have done fairly well. Here’s the goals differential for every team in the Eastern Conference:

New Jersey: +18
Washington: +15
Atlanta: +15
Pittsburgh: +12
Philadelphia: +12
Buffalo: +8
Ottawa: +2
Boston: even
NY Rangers: -1
Tampa Bay: -5
Montreal: -10
NY Islanders: -12
Florida: -15
Toronto: -22
Carolina: -37

I don’t think we’d be seeing the same complaints of Philadelphia were tied for fourth in the Eastern Conference right now. It’s probably fair to say that right now the Flyers’ record isn’t indicative of their play, and it’s also probably fair to say that if they keep scoring at the same rate their will record will eventually come to reflect that play.

There’s also precious little reason to believe the Flyers’ won’t continue to outscore their opposition. They average four more shots per game than their opposition. Their special teams were both top-shelf last year, so the power play should continue to click and the penalty kill should come around. Their goaltending isn’t likely to get worse; Ray Emery’s .907 SV% hasn’t done them any favours so far, and it’s reasonable to believe that he can sustain it.

In short, even if we can assume with certainty that the Flyers’ play has been the fault of Stevens (and as Travis Hughes writes, blaming the coach is generally the “easy way out”) the fact of the matter is that this team probably deserves better than it’s gotten to date. This wasn’t the case with the Michel Therrien Penguins, whice are cited as a comparable case; his Penguins were minus-4 in goal differential through 47 games; after Bylsma took over they were plus-29 in 35 games.

The results will come if the team keeps outscoring at the rate they have been. That said, John Stevens needs them to come soon, because fair or not, if the record doesn’t improve he’s finished.

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Martin Brodeur had an outstanding fantasy week. His stats line includes 3 wins, a 0.97 GAA, 78 saves and a .963 SV%. Only a shutout could possibly have made it better. His performance was the very best on my team, a team that had 13 different players deliver either multiple-win or multiple-point performances, with six of those performances in the four-point category.

That balanced attack powered me to a 9-3-1 record this past week, despite the fact that I was matched up against the toughest team in the league; it helped pull me all the way up to fourth and I’m now only seven points out of first. The breakdown:

Category: Willis – WB

Goals: 12 – 11
Assists: 26 - 15
Plus/Minus: +11 – -10
PIM: 24 – 30
PPG: 2 – 3
PPA: 8 – 5
GWG: 4 – 2
SOG: 122 – 107
Wins: 6 – 4
GAA: 1.47 – 2.83
Saves: 137 – 153
SV%: .938 – .905
Shutouts: 0 – 0

Transactions

I made a few different moves last week. My first decision was to drop Erik Cole, whose performance for a weak Carolina team has been underwhelming at best. With the vacant roster spot, I added Jeff Deslauriers, who is slated to be the starter in Edmonton until such time as Nikolai Khabibulin returns from injury. Given the poor performance of both Edmonton and Deslauriers, I’m reconsidering that decision now; he’ll get starts but if his numbers are bloated and he posts losses it doesn’t do my fantasy team much good. Then I decided to make a pitch for Martin Havlat, who at the time was day-to-day; I offered Paul Kariya and Ron Hainsey for Havlat and Davis Drewiske. I remain convinced Havlat will turn it around, while Kariya was underwhelming and Hainsey had been a free agent pickup in any case. Then Havlat went on IR and my opponent agreed to the trade, so for the moment this looks like a very poor decision on my part, although it’s still conceivable that it will turn around. Since I had no interest in keeping Drewiske, I dropped him and added Marc-Andre Bergeron (again) to my team; he’ll serve as a stop-gap until either Alex Goligoski or Andrei Markov gets healthy. Meanwhile, with Havlat on IR I had an extra roster spot, and since PIM has been a weakness for me I added Tampa Bay’s Steve Downie from the free agent pool. We’ll see how that works for me.

Week Nine Matchup

My opposition this week is “Fear the Flatulence”; that cleverly named team belonging to SBN’s San Jose Sharks blog Fear the Fin. We’re currently tied for fourth in the league, and a good week here would not only hurt a strong opponent but also conceivably catapult me into the top spot in the league. We’re fairly evenly matched, and last week I would have posted a 5-4-4 record against him. His forward group looks to be better than mine (with the headliner being Marian Gaborik) but for goaltending he’s relying on a shaky Chris Osgood and Phoenix goaltender Ilya Bryzgalov. We’ll see how it goes.

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Brian Burke is one of the league’s most controversial, and by the same extent most interesting, general managers. He’s a stubborn guy, both for good and bad; once he commits to players or coaches it takes a lot to shake his backing. His time in Vancouver perhaps best displayed his penchant for loyalty; he stood behind Marc Crawford, Dan Cloutier, and Todd Bertuzzi at times when many other managers would have tossed them to the wolves.

That stubborn streak also extends to ideas, and for years now Burke has dogmatically pushed the notion that cap space should be treated as a commodity – something that teams can trade like they would trade a pending free agent or a draft pick. From Pierre LeBrun’s blog:

Once again, there have been very few deals in the NHL in the opening two months thanks to cap-strapped teams. So you can expect Burke will once again present his “retaining salary in trades” amendment at the next GMs meeting in March.

He has proposed this for a few years, only to be shot down by the league; but like the stubborn Irishman that he is, he will not let this go. And he’s got some supporters among the GM fraternity.

The league’s concern is that allowing money to be kept in deals would create “dead money” in the system, and the league doesn’t want that. Burke, however, proposes a cap on the dead money per deal and an overall dead money cap per club. It would certainly lead to more trades earlier in the season instead of waiting until the March deadline every year.

“We decided [at past meetings] that it’s not a rule that’s going to be changed before the next collective-bargaining negotiation at the earliest,” NHL deputy commissioner Bill Daly told ESPN.com via e-mail Saturday. “Moving money around by definition ‘loosens’ the cap, and affects how talent is distributed around the league ultimately, we believe, in a negative way.”

I’m firmly on Burke’s side of the argument here, and frankly I don’t get Daly’s concern at all. The complaint about dead money is groundless, since the system already allows for it via the buyout process. If Daly has a better term for the nearly $17.0 million in total cap hit that Alexei Yashin will cost the Islanders over this season and the next five, I’d love to hear it. Meanwhile, Todd Bertuzzi is costing the Anaheim Ducks more than $1.3 million in cap space this season despite the fact that he’s on his second contract since being bought out. There are other examples. Dead money is a fact of life in the NHL, and if anything Burke’s proposal will just allow G.M.’s to compensate for it.

As for the idea that it “loosens” the cap, that’s true, but it loosens it in a way that benefits small market clubs, because in effect it allows larger teams to subsidize the smaller markets. It also won’t result in any monetary difference on a league-wide basis, thanks to the magic of escrow – the more money teams spend, the more the league claws back.

Of course, Burke’s not only trying the front door, but he’s tried the back door as well – at last year’s trade deadline, he picked up a bunch of salary from the Tampa Bay Lightning in exchange for a draft pick. The NHL responded by stripping the Leafs’ of the acquired draft pick, ostensibly as punishment for mishandling Jonas Frogren‘s contract. The league’s head office is determined not to give an inch, and Brian Burke is equally determined to find a way to push his agenda forward.

It’s a battle that could go either way.

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When the Ottawa Senators sent rookie defenceman Erik Karlsson to the AHL back at the end of October, I praised them for making the right decision. Karlsson had been handed the easiest minutes on the roster and still had arguably put up the worst results of any defenceman on the team. Now, a month later, the Senators have opted to recall Karlsson at the expense of prospect Brian Lee, the ninth overall pick in the 2005 NHL Entry Draft. It’s an interesting decision, and we should probably consider it in two seperate parts.

The Demotion of Brian Lee

I have to confess that I’m a little puzzled by this one. Karlsson and Lee are playing for the same spot – both of them are well down the list in quality of competition, and both of them get a lot of starts in the offensive zone. Lee wasn’t exactly lighting it up with such easy minutes, but he wasn’t struggling nearly as bad as Karlsson had, either. Both players had three points (Lee in 13 games, Karlsson in nine), but unlike Karlsson (who was getting outshot badly and out-scored six goals to two) Lee was pretty close to keeping his head above water; while he was on the ice the Senators outshot their opponents and were out-scored five goals to six.

Regardless, people like Allen Panzeri and Mark Parisi are wondering what this means for Lee’s future with the organization; both seem to think that somewhere in the next little while Lee is going to find himself somewhere else. I agree, and I think that whichever team picks him up is going to get a very nice prospect for less than full value. Lee looks to finally be coming around based on his play of late, and skilled defencemen with size and the ability to play a physical game aren’t all that easy to find.

The Promotion of Erik Karlsson

While I’m puzzled by the Lee demotion, I’m utterly baffled by the Senators’ decision to promote Karlsson. The Senators’ decision to play Karlsson in his 10th NHL game on Friday night means that the first year of his entry-level contract is now on the books and won’t slide another season. It also means he’ll be eligible for first restricted and then later unrestricted free agency a year early.

While there are cases where it’s defensible to do that, in this case the Senators are going to need to demote a defenceman anyway once Anton Volchenkov comes back from injury, and Karlsson’s the obvious choice, meaning that Karlsson is simply playing the role of stop-gap. Even granting that Karlsson is an upgrade on Lee when it comes to winning games right now (and I wouldn’t grant that) is he a substantial enough upgrade to be worth burning a year off his contract for just a couple of games? I can’t see it. There is another possibility, alluded to by the6thsens.com:

The organization really thinks that Karlsson represents enough of an upgrade over Brian Lee to justify the move.
Bryan Murray found John Muckler’s secret stash and is hitting the sauce hard.
Chris Campoli’s one way contract trumps everything.
Erik Karlsson has compromising photos of Bryan Murray, Eugene Melnyk or both.
There’s a trade in the works to move a defenceman or two.

While the first option is the most frightening, it’s probably the fifth option that makes the most sense here. If Karlsson is intended to be more than a stop-gap, and the Senators feel he’s a significant upgrade on Lee, then the move makes a certain sense. On the other hand, one could argue that his development was being accelerated by playing a varied role in the AHL; one he won’t be playing in the NHL, as per Cory Clouston:

“They put him in some situations where he had to be on the ice in the last few minutes, so defensive mistakes were important to eliminate. Just being in that kind of pressure situation should help him out a lot.”

“We’re not going to use him on the penalty kill and, more likely than not, he’s not going to be out there in the last two minutes of a game, if it’s a one-goal game. That’s generally (Filip) Kuba and (Chris) Phillips and if (Anton) Volchenkov’s in.

I’m a firm believer that the NHL is a league for winning games, and the AHL is a league for developing players, but obviously the Senators think that Karlsson’s going to learn more in the big league. As for the possibility that Karlsson dramatically improved over his AHL stint, there is one thing in particular that makes me skeptical. His superficial AHL numbers are good – it’s hard to argue with 11 assists in 12 games – but I thought it was interesting where he ranked by plus/minus on the Binghamton depth chart:

Geoff Kinrade: plus-10
Craig Schira: plus-7
Tomas Kudelka: plus-7
Drew Bannister: even
Erik Karlsson: even
Paul Baier: minus-1
Brian Lee: minus-2
Derek Smith: minus-5

Of course, plus/minus is an imperfect statistic and it’s impossible to make any firm judgements from it, but Karlsson’s poor number despite his offensive success tells me one of two things:

Karlsson was giving up as much as he was creating, OR
Karlsson’s offence was a product of the power play and wasn’t being created at even-strength

I’d guess it was a combination of the two, and neither suggests he’s suddenly going to be more capable of playing a regular NHL shift than he was a month ago. I can’t help but wonder if the Senators really made the right call here.

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Kyle Wellwood, pictured above, scored his first goal of the season the other night. Much has been made of Wellwood’s scoring slump this season, and with good reason: when Wellwood isn’t scoring, he’s not doing much else either. He doesn’t provide reliable defensive play, he doesn’t bring size, and he doesn’t bring any kind of physical presence either. The interesting thing is that his points scoring at even-strength this season actually fits nicely with his historic numbers. Here are his even-strength point totals, projected over 82 games, for this season and the past two:

2007-08: 13 points
2008-09: 16 points
2009-10: 12 points

Wellwood was significantly better in an injury-shortened 2006-07; he hasn’t been the same player since having surgery for a sports hernia. In 2005-06, he was a marginally better player but even at his best he was never more than a middling player at even-strength. Where he’s compensated for it has been on the power play. Here are Wellwood’s projected power play numbers over the last couple of seasons:

2007-08: 17 points
2008-09: 14 points
2009-10: 4 points

It’s pretty clear where Wellwood’s offence has dropped off this season: he hasn’t been nearly as effective on the power play this year as he has in seasons past. But the fact of the matter is that even in years past he hasn’t been bringing enough power play offence to compensate for his lack of even-strength scoring. Consider last season. Wellwood put up 1.09 PTS/60 at five-on-five last year, which ranks him 372nd in the NHL among players with more than 10 games played. To put that in perspective, that means 78% of NHL players in 2008-09 were more likely to record ap oint on any given shift. He only improved marginally on the power play – his 3.07 PTS/60 five-on-four ranked him 195th in the NHL among forwards with more than 10 games played and an average of more than 1:00 per game on the power play. That means that 72% of players in the league who were used on the powerplay were more likely to record a point on any given shift.

When the Canucks snagged Wellwood off waivers in the summer of 2008, I was a fan of the move:

I really like this pickup from a Canucks perspective- Wellwood may not rebound, but if he does, he can help out on the powerplay a lot, and score against the softies at even strength, something that the Canucks could not do last season.

At the time, it was very low risk gambling with a potentially high reward. That isn’t the case any more – now, the Canucks are gambling a roster spot and a fair amount of ice-time on a guy who may or may not rebound to the level of ‘mediocre’. The Canucks had all of last season to watch Wellwood, and they’ve had a quarter of this year where he’s gotten even worse. He’s now had better than two seasons to prove he can be the player he was before the surgery in 2007. He isn’t. He’s a liability at even-strength, and he doesn’t bring enough to offset it with the man advantage.

The Canucks should replace him.

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Comparables is a series where we take the statistics of some of the young, up-and-coming players in the league and compare them to other players with a similar background to give us an impartial career projection.

I’ve run this series twice in the past, looking at Matt Stajan and Andrei Kostitsyn, and today’s subject is Calgary Flames defenceman Dion Phaneuf. We’ll start by looking at the profile we’ll use – please note that all results have been prorated over 82 games, both with Phaneuf and with the list of comparables.

Dion Phaneuf
6’3” – 205lbs – First round pick
20: 82GP – 20G – 29A – 49PTS
21: 82GP – 18G – 34A – 52PTS
22: 82GP – 17G – 43A – 60PTS
23: 82GP – 11G – 37A – 48PTS

Phaneuf is not an easy player to find comparables for. He combines offensive ability with a physical edge, and he emerged as an incredibly useful NHL player in his rookie season. Not many players over the last 20 years can boast that particular skill-set. Nevertheless, there are two players who come close.

Roman Hamrlik
6’2” – 208lbs – First round pick
20: 82GP – 21G – 19A – 40PTS
21: 82GP – 16G – 49A – 65PTS
22: 82GP – 12G – 29A – 41PTS
23: 82GP – 9G – 34A – 43PTS

Rob Blake
6’3” – 222lbs – Fourth round pick
20: 82GP – 13G – 37A – 50PTS
21: 82GP – 10G – 19A – 29PTS
22: 82GP – 17G – 46A – 63PTS
23: 82GP – 20G – 47A – 67PTS

Of interest: both Hamrlik and Blake were essentially finished developing as offensive defencemen by the time they turned 25; Blake would never put up more points than he did at age 23, and Hamrlik never surpassed the totals he posted at the age of 21. This isn’t to say that their development stopped; it’s reasonable to suggest that both tightened up their defensive game as their careers continued on. Offensively though, they were finished.

I don’t think either is an ideal comparison for Phaneuf, but in this instance I lean towards Blake. Hamrlik had already played two seasons by the time he turned 20, and aside from one season his offence was fairly strictly confined to the 40-point range. Blake meanwhile was not as highly touted in his draft year (70th overall) but aside from that he’s a rather good comparison, allowing for the fact that he suffered an injury in his 21-year-old season that knocks his offence down in that year. If we accept that year as an aberration, he’s a touch better offensively than Phaneuf is over the same time span.

Questions for the comments section:

Does Blake seem like a reasonable comparison for Phaneuf?
If Phaneuf went on to have Blake’s career, would that mean he’s met, exceeded, or fallen below the expectations of Flames’ fans?

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Unfortunately I don’t have time this morning to go into great detail on the games last night from the Ottawa Senators and Vancouver Canucks. Fortunately, there are a couple of other sites that covered those games.

Ottawa 1, Columbus 3

Everyone agrees that Senators goaltender Brian Elliott was very good, as was Jesse Winchester (pictured above) who had two assists and added a physical element. Alexei Kovalev played well in his first game back and Jason Spezza managed to score a goal. Peter Regin got benched. On the Jackets’ side of things, Rick Nash had a fine outing, while Steve Mason looked better than he has in a while.

Vancouver 4, Los Angeles 1

Nucks Misconduct – Canucks 4 Kings 1

Alex Burrows scored a goal to break out of his slump, but more importantly so did Kyle Wellwood, who has been brutal this season and had gone 23 games without a goal. Meanwhile, Nucks Misconduct nominated Roberto Luongo as first star.

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Remember Cody Hodgson? The Vancouver Canucks first pick in the 2008 NHL Entry Draft, Hodgson made nice progress last season with the Brampton Battalion and was projected by many as not only a member of the Canucks this season but also a strong candidate for this year’s Calder Trophy.

That of course was before a disappointing training camp that ended with the star prospect being reassigned to the OHL, a move that split fans, many of whom felt that Hodgson had nothing left to learn in junior. Clouding the issue was a back injury that Hodgson repeatedly claimed was keeping him from playing at 100%. Canucks management felt he was tossing out excuses, and didn’t balk at making that crystal clear to the media:

G.M. Mike Gillis, September 25:

“He hasn’t shown enough in this camp to prove that he’s ready to play at this level. I don’t think that’s criticism. I think it’s an assessment of fact… He’s been cleared to play for 10 days and we’re in a time frame now where things need to get better. He needs to show that he is ready and capable of participating at this level on a good team. We’ll see how it goes.”

Head Coach Alain Vigneault, October 3:

“As far as I know, he has already had two opinions [on his back]: he had an opinion back home [in Toronto] from a specialist, who gave the exact same report that our back specialist gave him. If he wants to get a third opinion, that’s fine. I think Cody is a very young man who hasn’t had a lot of disappointments throughout his life. He’s probably having a tough time, personally, dealing with this one and trying to find a reason why it happened. We’ve all had times where we’ve encountered disappointment and tried to roll the [blame] in a different direction. We’ve all been through those things. Cody will learn from this.”

Meanwhile, Hodgson decided to seek that third opinion. What’s happened since has been interesting. After playing his final preseason game with the Canucks, Hodgson was confined to off-ice rehabilitation until the start of November. On November 2, Hodgson resumed light skating. More than a week later, on November 11, Hodgson finally started participating in practices with his Brampton teammates. Two weeks later, he has yet to participate in a game and has sometime in early December targeted as a return date – meaning he’ll hit the ice just before Canada’s World Junior selection camp.

All of this is a strong indicator that Hodgson wasn’t exaggerating the effects of his injury (the rather unlikely – and unpleasant – alternative being that he’s been loafing around for some other reason). The consequences of this injury on Hodgson’s play remain to be seen, but it seems likely that it won’t have a lasting impact. Where it may have a lasting impact is on Hodgson’s relationship with the Canucks. At this point I’m speculating, but it’s hard to imagine that his ties to the team haven’t been at least strained by their public and cavalier dismissal of his complaints.

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New Jersey 3, Ottawa 1

Two excellent recaps from different perspectives: John Fischer of In Lou We Trust had the Devils’ side of things, while Peter at Silver Seven Sens covered Ottawa’s angle.

It was a tight-checking game, and one of the four goals scored was an empty-netter, so it was a close one. Both goaltenders were solid, with Brian Elliott making 18 saves and Brodeur making 24 (as well as getting the first star).

Toronto 4, Tampa Bay 3

A pair of excellent recaps, one from Maple Leafs Hot Stove and the other from Pension Plan Puppets help shed some light on this game. The points of agreement, in bullet form:

Jonas Gustavsson was nothing special, but made some big saves and was good enough to keep the team in it
Francois Beauchemin is coming around after a slow start and looked very good again
Tomas Kaberle played an uncharacteristically weak game (MLHS thought he was directly to blame for two goals against)

Meanwhile, Carl Gunnarson quietly led the team in points with three assists. The Leafs have six of a possible eight points in their last four games, and are 4-4-2 in their last ten. Their next three games are all against teams on the playoff bubble, and could go a long ways towards helping Toronto get out of the hole they find themselves in.

Pittsburgh 3, Montreal 1

This was not a game that the Canadiens had any business being in. Leaving aside injuries and the disparity in talent between these two teams, the Canadiens had played in Montreal just the night before (a 5-3 win over Columbus), while the Penguins had an extra day of rest. Side point: ever wonder why so many teams playing their second game in back-to-back nights play on the road? I’m sure it’s because the NHL knows this helps the home team win, and it’s good for attendance if the home team wins.

In any case, the Penguins were dominant, jumping up to a three-goal lead and allowing only four shots in the third period. Carey Price continued his strong play of late with 27 saves, but obviously that wasn’t enough and Pittsburgh now moves into a tie for first in the Eastern Conference with Washington.

Calgary 2, Phoenix 1

By the shot clock it was a tight hockey game, but Phoenix captain Shane Doan didn’t come away pleased with the effort of his side:

“Absolutely no positive to take out of that. We had chances and opportunities, and we didn’t take advantage. We’re not scoring goals; I don’t know what it is. It’s not fair to our goaltender. We have to be a lot better.”

Ex-Coyote Nigel Dawes found a positive, though. Mired in a 12-game goalless streak, and having gone four games without a goal, Dawes scored the winner for the Flames. Both goaltenders had strong games, as did Daymond Langkow, but Jay Bouwmeester was shaky both by eye and by the shot clock – he was far and away the worst Flame by on-ice shot attempts (Corsi) at minus-14.

Los Angeles 3, Edmonton 1

I watched this game last night and it was an ugly one. The Kings weren’t especially good but they held the edge in play for the vast majority of the game; Jeff Deslauriers was solid in net but because the Oilers couldn’t generate any offence against a Kings’ team dealing with a run of injuries. The Kings lost 19-year-old call-up Andrei Loktionov on a harmless looking play in the neutral zone, but Michal Handzus also did his best to add to the Oilers’ games-lost totals, running Ales Hemsky hard from behind into the boards. Hemsky did not return.

I did a full rundown over at OilersNation, and Bruce McCurdy did one up at Copper & Blue, but it was probably Pat Quinn who summed it up best in his post-game press conference, saying “I don’t know if it’s a funk – maybe we’re playing where we are.” Game grades are up at Cult of Hockey, and while I’d argue with some of them (Horcoff, O’Sullivan and Deslauriers) they do give a fairly accurate picture of the game.

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Brian Elliott wasn’t highly regarded in his draft year, and the Ottawa Senators snagged him with the second-last pick of the 2003 NHL Entry Draft. The biggest part of the reason had to do with where he was playing – with the Ajax Axemen, an Ontario Junior A club. For the first two years after being drafted, it looked like Elliott wouldn’t be anything special – his numbers were good, but he played just 15 games over two seasons for the University of Wisconsin-Madison, where he was studying business.

In 2005-06, Wisconsin’s starting goaltender, Bernd Buckler (a fifth-round pick of the Flyers in 2001), turned professional and Elliott was thrust into the starting job. Elliott went 25-5-3 with a 1.55 GAA and .938 SV% and ended up a finalist for the Hobey Baker award. He followed that with another good season in 2006-07, and finished the year with Ottawa’s AHL affiliate in Binghamton. His rookie AHL season was good, and he got into one NHL game, but he improved again last season, and ultimately earned a job splitting time with Alex Auld.

Now, with 38 NHL games under his belt, he’s expected to be Ottawa’s starter for the next month as Pascal Leclaire recovers from an injury suffered while he was on the bench (a deflected puck hit him in the face, fracturing his cheekbone). The Senators have recalled Mike Brodeur from the AHL on an emergency basis to handle the backup role, but after a solid season last year Brodeur has struggled, with a pedestrian .898 SV% in 15 games. In short, it’s all up to Elliott now.

Looking at Elliott’s save percentage, he doesn’t seem terribly impressive; after all, the .900 range is where most replacement-level goaltenders find themselves. There was one thing in particular that caught my eye about his statistics last year, though:

Even-strength SV%: .920
Short-handed SV%: .812

That’s of interest because while .920 is a very good number (last year, it tied Elliott with Henrik Lundqvist and Evgeni Nabokov, among others) that .812 SV% short-handed was the worst number by any goaltender with more than 25 games. It’s so terrible that I couldn’t imagine it as having any sustainability.

As it happens, it hasn’t; at least not so far this season. Here are Elliott’s save percentage numbers this year:

Even-strength: .891
Short-handed: .941

No goalie in the league with more than five games under his belt can compete with Elliott’s .941 short-handed save percentage. Meanwhile, only one goalie with more than five games has a worse even-strength number than Elliott (Vesa Toskala, .876). What should be made of it all?

I look at it based on sample size. Here are the number of shots Elliott faced in the four situations I pointed to above:

Even-strength, 2008-09: 628
Short-handed, 2008-09: 138
Even-strength, 2009-10: 129
Short-handed, 2009-10: 51

All of these numbers are small, except for the first one; it’s the one I’d be placing my confidence in. At this point, I’d guess that Elliott’s probably in the lower echelon of NHL starting goaltenders, but that he’s a good bet to at least keep his head above water as the Senators’ number one for the next month. Regardless, there’s no arguing that this next month could be the most important of his career: it could be the month that establishes him as an NHL starter, or it could be the month that undoes the excellent work he’s done so far.

One thing in Elliott’s favour is his demeanor. Hockey’s Future interviewed him while he was still playing college hockey and Elliott stressed the importance of staying at an even keel, and that maintaining mental focus is the most important part of goaltending. He’s also gotten better every step of the way; I’d be surprised if he didn’t manage to do that again.

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