Archive for December, 2009

With the Americans set to announce their Olympic team tomorrow, it’s time for me to reveal the players I would take in Brian Burke’s shoes. This is not an attempt at prediction – I rather expect that Burke’s picks will be different – but rather the list of players I would name if I were in his shoes.

Readers may also be interested in James Mirtle’s picks here and/or Greg Wyshynski’s picks here.

Goaltenders

Craig Anderson
Ryan Miller
Tim Thomas

I view my selections here as uncontroversial, but they’re also the right ones. Miller may be the best goaltender in the NHL this season, and has a long track record of being a top-tier goalie; he’ll start. Thomas won the Vezina last season and like Miller has an established track record; he’ll play the backup role. Finally, Anderson has had a very strong season (though he’s cooled of late) and even though it is his first year as a starter he has several years of strong performances as a backup in his favour.

Also in contention were Jonathan Quick, Jim Howard and Ty Conklin, but I didn’t think any of them were especially close to the three picks I made. If Quick is selected by Brian Burke tomorrow, it will almost certainly be a pick based on his potential as a future Team USA starter rather than his track record to date.

Defencemen

Tim Gleason
Mike Komisarek
Paul Martin
Brooks Orpik
Brian Rafalski
Ryan Suter
Ryan Whitney

It wasn’t easy to pick the American defence corps. Not even a little bit easy. Some of the league’s finest shutdown defencemen are eligible to play for the United States, and my final roster included four of those in Gleason, Komisarek, Orpik, and Suter. I had to leave out Rob Scuderi, who I also seriously considered. I weighted the team a little heavier in this direction than others likely would, not only because the Americans lack a great selection of two-way defenders, but more importantly because the fact of the matter is that their team needs to be built on defence. They probably can’t compete with Canada or Russia in terms of pure skill, but they have both the goaltending and a list of intimidating blue-liners to eke out a blue collar win. It was with that mindset that I built my version of their roster.

I’ve included Paul Martin above, something that I was on edge about doing. He’s suffered a setback in his attempt to return from injury, and there’s some question about whether he’ll be 100% for the Olympics. On the other hand, if healthy he’s arguably Team USA’s top blue-liner, a tremendously talented two-way defenceman who rarely gets the credit he deserves. In other words, pretend there’s an asterisk next to his name – if he isn’t 100% in time for the Olympics, he can be replaced with a healthy player. Brian Rafalski is another fine two-way player, and has consistently been one of the best American defencemen in the league. I also considered players like Ron Hainsey, Tom Gilbert and Tom Poti (the latter a rarely mentioned but nonetheless legitimate candidate for the team) but had them back of the group I took for various reasons.

Ryan Whitney is the only player I’ve included on the roster who doesn’t seem like a natural candidate to be found on the ice against an all-star player. He’s having a fine season, though, and playing more of a defensive role for the Ducks; not only that but this group needs at least one player with his offensive credentials. He beat out Eric Johnson and Alex Goligoski for the spot on my team based on experience and Johnson’s recent struggles. I also had him ahead of Matt Carle.

I also seriously looked at Andy Greene and Alex Goligoski, but in the end neither of them had enough of a track record to displace the other players I took. Greene’s having a phenomenal season but I strongly suspect he’s playing over his head right now.

Forwards

Dustin Brown
Scott Gomez
Patrick Kane
Ryan Kesler
Phil Kessel
Jamie Langenbrunner
David Legwand
Ryan Malone
Zach Parise
Joe Pavelski
Jason Pominville
Bobby Ryan
Paul Stastny

With a few exceptions, the list I have above isn’t an overly controversial one. The one limb I went out on was for David Legwand, an incredibly gifted shadow who will be called upon to contain some of the offensive stars present at the tournament. He can score a bit too and I think he’ll be a nice fit on this team.

I’ll refrain from going into the kind of lengthy description that I did with the defensive corps, but I would like to comment briefly on a few of the players I excluded from my final roster. Mike Knuble has been generally underrated for a long time and is having a fine season, and it was difficult to keep him off. Tim Connolly would have brought offensive gifts to the team but I don’t see his game as an ideal fit for the role Team USA will be playing. Islanders’ forward Kyle Okposo is a strong candidate for the 2014 team, but I don’t think he’s done enough to push off a more established option.

That brings me to a trio of veterans who I’ve decided to leave off the team. Bill Guerin is a personal favourite of mine dating back to his time in Edmonton, but I think he’s fallen back enough to miss this roster. Chris Drury would represent a legacy pick; he’s having an awful season and his performance last year wasn’t anything special either. Similarly, while Mike Modano deserves a world of respect for his on-ice accomplishments over his career, I think at this point that including him on the roster would leave a more deserving player off of it. Finally, Brian Rolston was another player who I had trouble cutting.

I also looked at some other defensive specialists – Paul Gaustad in Buffalo and David Steckel in Washington – but in the end decided that they didn’t bring enough to the table to displace my other selections.

A final note: I’ll be live-blogging tomorrow’s roster selection (along with the Winter Classic) with Greg Wyshynski of Puck Daddy; you can check that out here or over at his place if you’ll be watching the game and feel like talking about it.

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One of the more interesting intermission segments I’ve ever seen on an Edmonton Oilers pay-per-view game took place last night in their 3-1 victory over the Toronto Maple Leafs. It was an interview between the Oilers’ analysts (namely Gene Principe, Louie DeBrusk, and Bob Stauffer) and Hockey Canada Associate Director Kevin Lowe. Lowe was quizzed on some of the more controversial decisions made by Hockey Canada in selecting the Canadian Olympic team, and he did a nice job of explaining the organizational philosophy behind those picks.

I don’t have a full transcript, but I do have some brief highlights:

Lowe mentioned some of the more obvious tough decisions the selection group had to make – namely Bouwmeester, Green, Smyth, Carter, Fisher and Doan – but he also mentioned a name that hasn’t been getting much attention: Dan Hamhuis. Lowe spoke very highly of the Predators’ defenceman, and I was left with the impression that he was the runner-up (behind Brent Seabrook) for the job of defensive specialist on the Canadian blue line.

Speaking of Seabrook, Lowe said he could stand on his own merits, but admitted that “familiarity and chemistry” with Duncan Keith were a large factor in his selection to the team.

Chemistry came up again when discussing another selection – that of Boston’s Patrice Bergeron. Lowe mentioned his right-handed shot, praised his versatility, and also mentioned that his established chemistry with Sidney Crosby was a factor in his selection. That was one of a few tantalizing hints Lowe gave; while mentioning Bergeron’s versatility he also suggested that he could play “in the top three.” Obviously the final decision will go to the coaching staff, but could we see a line with Crosby and Bergeron dedicated to containing Ovechkin and company? It’s an interesting thought.

Drew Doughty was another player Lowe was specifically asked about, and Lowe was effusive, comparing Doughty to Ray Bourque and calling him an “emerging superstar.” He also applauded the young defenceman’s ability to defend, citing the way he handled Ilya Kovalchuk at the 2009 World Championships. Despite the plaudits, I got the distinct impression that it was Doughty’s potential that put him over the top.

It’s an interesting way approach to team-building. In my brief post the other day discussing some of the omitted players, the implication I made was that Canada hadn’t necessarily taken the 23 best players, and that gets some support here. In fact, after hearing Lowe’s comments, Greg Wyshynski’s comment the other day rings very true:

[I]t’s not about Boyle and Green; it’s about valuing Duncan Keith more than Green, and thus valuing the inclusion his defensive partner over Green. And putting Doughty on the roster is grooming what Hockey Canada believes is the next great defenseman from their soil. Defending Green’s credentials is immaterial when it’s simply a matter of roster spots and organ-i-zational philosophy.

That is the way to look at most of these selections, and I think the argument (that the Canadian brain-trust was looking for more than the country’s best individual players) is a better one than saying that ‘X’ is a better player than Martin St. Louis. I do get that. Frankly, I think that the emphasis on chemistry, and in Doughty’s case career potential is probably overdone, but that’s a philosophical issue rather than a player selection issue, and I’m not nearly as dogmatic about it. I am curious what readers think, though: should Canada have placed less emphasis on chemistry/potential, or was that emphasis appropriate?

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One of the interesting side effects of playing a lot of inter-divisional games is the illusion of divisional parity. Each division will have strong and weak teams, and often this meant that some teams (most noticeably from the Southeast) would be sitting a little higher in the standings than they really deserved to. With the NHL’s new schedule which de-emphasizes divisional play, the impact of playing in a strong or weak division is reduced, but it’s certainly still present.

With that in mind, which NHL division is the toughest to play in? To answer that question I’ve gone over the records of each division’s opponents. A good record indicates a weak division, while a poor record indicates a strong division; the number in brakets is the opposition’s winning percentage:

Southeast: 112-61-22 (.574)
Northeast: 101-68-27 (.515)
Central: 95-71-28 (.490)
Northwest: 94-81-20 (.482)
Pacific: 93-76-25 (.479)
Atlantic: 88-78-26 (.458)

Two Eastern Conference divisions sit near the top; the Southeast remains the NHL’s weakest division (by a mile) while the Northeast is also poor. The three Western Conference divisions sit in the middle, while the Atlantic, with powerhouse teams like New Jersey and Pittsburgh appears to be the strongest. Case closed?

Not quite. There is one remaining adjustment to make. Under the NHL’s unbalanced schedule, teams within conferences play each other the most. What was the record of the Atlantic division against Western Conference teams?

Atlantic Division vs. Western Conference: 15-20-4
Western Conference vs. Atlantic Division: 24-12-3

We see that despite the apparent strength of the Atlantic Division, the teams in it have not fared well against Western Conference opponents. So while the Atlantic appears to be the league’s strongest division at first glance, the toughest division to play in remains the Pacific, with five strong teams: San Jose, Phoenix, Los Angeles, Dallas, and Anaheim.

What does it mean? Well, some might quibble the Ducks’ inclusion in that list, but consider this: outside of their division they are a very respectable 12-8-4. Meanwhile a team like the Capitals, vying for the Eastern Conference crown, are a comparable 16-8-6 outside their own division. Something to keep in mind, come playoff time.

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The reaction from various parties to Mike Green‘s omission from Team Canada has been interesting. Naturally, Washington Capitals fans are furious; the discussion thread over at Japer’s Rink is closing in on 800 comments, and there have been other voices of protest over Green’s exclusion. On the other hand, many of the game’s best commentators are perfectly happy with the decision to exclude Green: Puck Daddy’s Greg Wyshynski, Allan Muir of Sports Illustrated, and Ken Campbell of The Hockey News, to name three. Muir says that Green tends to make unforced errors, while Campbell’s succinct argument perhaps best summarizes the case against Green:

In the case of Green, he gives Canada too much of what they already have in abundance and not enough of what they need from their defensemen.

That’s it, in a nutshell: Green’s offence is nice, but Canada has plenty of offensive defencemen and doesn’t need to deal with his defensive deficiencies. He’s an offensive (some people say power play) specialist who can’t be relied upon to take care of business in his own end.

It’s quite probably foolish of me to argue with the columnists listed above (along with, for that matter, the Hockey Canada brain-trust), but I don’t mind an occasional bout of foolishness so I’m going to anyway.

I’ll start with statistics. Here is where Mike Green ranks among defencemen in some of the league’s most important statistical categories:

Goals: 1st
Assists: 1st
Points: 1st
Plus/Minus: 2nd
Power Play Points: 1st
Even Strength Points: 2nd
Shots: 1st

That’s a fun list. Among Canadian defencemen, Green ranks first in every statistical category (save even-strength points), which is something of a precedent. Over the last decade, only one player has ever led all Canadian-born defencemen in points and plus/minus. That defenceman was Chris Pronger, and it was in 1999-2000, the season where he took home both the Hart and Norris Trophies (awarded to, respectively, the league’s most valuable player and the league’s best defenceman) – and Pronger didn’t lead in goals, power play points, or shots.

So there’s that. Mike Green’s performance to date has him on pace for a nearly unprecedented statistical domination of his fellow Canadian defencemen.

Then there’s the not inconsequential matter of Green’s offence. The prevailing thinking seems to be that the Canadian defensive corps has enough offence to go around, and that Green’s accomplishments in that area aren’t so spectacular compared against the group as a whole. Given that, let’s compare the season Green’s currently on pace for with the best offensive seasons each of the seven defencemen named has recorded over the course of their career. For the sake of fairness, we’ll project all of those seasons over 82 games.

Mike Green: 82GP – 19G – 63A – 82PTS (2009-10, projected)
Chris Pronger: 82GP – 13G – 63A – 76PTS (2000-01)
Duncan Keith: 82GP – 13G – 61A – 74PTS (2009-10, projected)
Scott Niedermayer: 82GP – 16G – 56A – 72PTS (2006-07)
Dan Boyle: 82GP – 15G – 50A – 65PTS (2009-10, projected)
Drew Doughty: 82GP – 19G – 36A – 55PTS (2009-10, projected)
Shea Weber: 82GP – 23G – 30A – 53PTS (2008-09)
Brent Seabrook: 82GP – 6G – 32A – 38PTS (2005-06)

Mike Green’s current pace puts him on track to have a better offensive season than any of the other Canadian defencemen named to the roster today have ever had over the course of their careers – and it’s a lesser pace than he managed last season (82GP – 37G – 51A – 88PTS). In fact, over the last ten years exactly one defenceman other than Green has hit the point-per-game mark: Niklas Lidstrom, who did it once, in 2005-06. In short: Green’s current offensive pace is unique, even among the best defencemen in the game today.

Then again, there’s always the argument that he’s a power play specialist who doesn’t put up the points at even-strength. Here are the seven defencemen named today, plus Green, by percentage of their total points that they scored on the power play:

Niedermayer: 62.5%
Doughty: 53.8%
Pronger: 50.0%
Boyle: 48.4%
Weber: 47.6%
Green: 47.4%
Keith: 25.7%
Seabrook: 25.0%

So, of that group, only Seabrook (a defensive specialist) and Duncan Keith have scored a smaller percentage of their points on the power play. Rather, it’s players like Doughty and Niedermayer who have made their points on the power play. It isn’t hitting either; Green is creditted with approximately three times as many hits as Keith, twice as many as Boyle and Niedermayer, and is on par with Pronger and Doughty. It wasn’t because Green’s getting fat feasting on Southeast division opponents, either; Green leads all NHL defencemen with 32 points playing against other divisions; in fact, with the exception of Keith he has more out-of-division points than any other Canadian defenceman has points.

I’m not saying that Green is the best defenceman Canada has, but he’s certainly the country’s most capable offensive defenceman. What I have difficulty figuring out is why a player like Dan Boyle was held in higher esteem; Boyle plays a similar role, is less physical, and sits four inches shorter than Green. I also struggle to see how a 20-year-old like Doughty makes the team ahead of Green.

He should have been on the team.

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It’s generally difficult to name a genuinely bad Team Canada (although adding Todd Bertuzzi is a step in the right direction) and so Steve Yzerman’s group was bound to be the gold medal favourite one way or the other. So while the roster isn’t bad, I do have a few thoughts on the team.

For starters, apparently the idea that centres should be deployed between wingers isn’t one that the Hockey Canada brain-trust subscribes to. Of the 13 forwards named to the team, eight of them (Bergeron, Crosby, Getzlaf, Marleau, Richards, Staal, Thornton, Toews) have spent the majority of their career in the centre position.

Matt Fenwick of Battle of Alberta had a good way of looking at some of the omissions, phrasing them in the form of arguments to defend. I’m going to steal that excellent idea, and present some examples:

As of today…

Drew Doughty is a better defenceman than Mike Green or Jay Bouwmeester.
Brent Seabrook is a better defenceman than Mike Green or Jay Bouwmeester.
Jonathan Toews is a better player than Martin St. Louis or Brad Richards.
Patrice Bergeron is a better player than Martin St. Louis or Brad Richards.

All of the players mentioned above are excellent players, but with the possible exception of the Toews line I don’t think those are defensible arguments. Doughty certainly will be a phenomenal defenceman in his prime, but he just turned 20 at the start of this month, and this feels very much like a pick based more on potential than on accomplishments to date, which at the NHL level basically boil down to one good half-season.

It’s not a bad team, but the more I think about it the more I wonder why Martin St. Louis isn’t on it.

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More than a week after Mathieu Schneider left the Vancouver Canucks for “personal reasons”, the team has revealed why he left the club: unhappiness with his playing time and role with the team. The Canucks have been looking to make a trade, but without any takers decided to put the veteran defenceman on waivers. Assistant G.M. Lorne Henning said the team was trying to help Schneider, who he says still wants to play, and sounded regretful that things didn’t work out in Vancouver:

“It was a tough spot for Mathieu; he came in with the injury and never really got his feet under him. Others guys came in and played well.”

Where Schneider will end up is the question now, but he has a base salary of $1.55 million, and has bonuses worth 1.2 million which are reportedly based on him hitting games played marks, some of which are now out of reach. According to the report, Schneider also would need to hit ice-time marks, and it wouldn’t surprise me if that was one source of tension: he has averaged just a hair over 15:00 per night, which is supposedly the number that would activate that bonus. This is speculation on my part, of course, but it’s certainly interesting to consider, isn’t it? I wonder if Schneider had visions of playing 39 games at 14:59 a night or something similar. It’s hard to see an NHL team stooping to those tactics, but we now live in a league where players are shuffled between the AHL and NHL on non-game days to save cap room, so it’s within the realm of possibility.

Getting back to the question at hand, the Vancouver Sun suggested Detroit as a possibility, but I have my doubts. Schneider has (according to Gabriel Desjardins), played against sub-par opposition, and he’s done it while starting mostly in the offensive zone. Despite that the team has been badly outshot at even-strength with Schneider on the ice. He was also averaging 2:48 a night on the power play during games he did play, but has only two points with the man advantage. It was reasonable to expect that to turn around; he was a phenomenal point man last season in Montreal, after all, but between Ehrhoff, Edler, Bieksa and Salo the Canucks didn’t really need a specialist in the role, particularly at the money Schneider would make if he hit his performance bonuses.

Detroit seems as good a bet as any; they have familiarity with the player, injuries on the blue-line, and a power play that could use a boost, but I doubt they claim him. I think if the Canucks do rid themselves of Schneider they’ll be taking a little bit of salary back, because it would take a unique situation for Schneider to be worth his potential paycheck, and I don’t see that situation anywhere. Canucks Army and Nucks Misconduct both have some thoughts on the situation, although I highly recommend the MacIntyre article linked above, which has most of the pertinent details.

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With Canada set to unveil its Olympic Roster tomorrow, it’s time for me to put out my final version of the team. I’ve done some work on this in the past but there have been some changes en route to my final selections.

Without further ado, my Team Canada.

Goaltenders

Martin Brodeur
Roberto Luongo
Marc-Andre Fleury

There aren’t any surprises here; as Greg Wyshynski said this morning, “if a goalie other than Martin Brodeur, Roberto Luongo or Marc-Andre Fleury is named to the team it would be a Norway-winning-gold-level shock.” That said, I tend to agree with Matt Fenwick that Fleury hasn’t really earned a spot with his play this season, but the fact is that he’s never going to play and the third-string goaltending role is one of the few spots where it’s worth taking a young goaltender who might take a regular role in the future, provided that he’s close to the other guys in competition. Fenwick suggests that Dwayne Roloson should probably get the spot on merit, and I think he’s probably right on that (he’s played for some abysmal teams lately) but that Marty Turco and Chris Mason are probably in the range too. That said, Fleury gets the nod.

Defence

Chris Pronger
Scott Niedermayer
Jay Bouwmeester
Duncan Keith
Shea Weber
Mike Green
Dan Boyle

Dan Boyle just made the cut here. Most of the analysts have Mike Green on the bubble and Boyle as a lock, and frankly I don’t get that. Green’s a better offensive player than Boyle is (or for that matter ever has been), he’s bigger, and they have similar defensive deficiencies. Both are probably good enough to make the final team, but if one gets cut lose it should be Boyle.

Drew Doughty is an unbelievable defenceman at an incredibly young age and just missed the cut for me; I’d be shocked if he wasn’t on the next edition of this team. Aside from Doughty, a number of defensive defencemen came close, and it wouldn’t surprise me at all to see a guy like Brent Seabrook or Robyn Regehr on Yzerman’s team.

The other guys are pretty uncontroversial; Pronger and Niedermayer are obvious, Weber’s been tremendous for a while now, and Keith and Bouwmeester are two of the game’s best defencemen, although neither gets the credit he probably deserves for it.

Forwards

Sidney Crosby
Ryan Getzlaf
Dany Heatley
Jarome Iginla
Patrick Marleau
Brenden Morrow
Rick Nash
Corey Perry
Brad Richards
Mike Richards
Eric Staal
Martin St. Louis
Joe Thornton

I’m still not sold on Patrick Marleau being an elite player, and firmly believe that he’s benefitting a ton from his linemates (also known as “the Jonathan Cheechoo experience”). That said, it’s impossible to leave off Canada’s leading goal-scorer, and his chemistry with Thornton and Heatley should be regarded as a positive. I’d expect that unit to play together, and Crosby, Nash and Iginla to round out the top six.

There are a bunch of players that would have made this team if they played wing rather than centre; most prominently Mike Fisher, who just missed the cut. Dustin Penner would have if he had more of a track record and hadn’t cooled off so much, Jeff Carter would have if he were having a better season, Ryan Smyth would have if he were healthy, etc., etc. However, the last cut I made was a guy who isn’t getting much Olympic buzz at all – Mike Cammalleri, who has been a powerhouse for Montreal and is scoring a ton of goals at even-strength. I’m still iffy about leaving him off the team.

Jonathan Toews, who everyone seems to love, really hasn’t been good enough for this squad. For starters, he’s a centre and Team Canada is insanely deep up the middle. Secondly, he’s never been a point-per-game player and isn’t now, despite playing on a strong team. Don’t get me wrong, he’s a fine player and will probably be on the next version of this team, but I think people look at him and the sight gets blurred a little bit by his awesome potential.

Brad Richards makes the team thanks to a very good year and his ability to play wing, Mike Richards makes the team because he kills penalties and plays a physical game (ditto for Brenden Morrow) and Eric Staal edges everyone else out because he’s 6’4” and the skill level is simply too much to deny.

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As everyone has likely heard by now, the general managers of the Washington Capitals and Columbus Blue Jackets (respectively George McPhee and Scott Howson) have combined to do the impossible: make a trade mid-season. The Capitals give up depth defenceman Milan Jurcina and team captain Chris Clark, while the Blue Jackets send way veteran role player Jason Chimera. Here’s the skinny on each player involved.

Jason Chimera

Cap Hit: $1.875 million until 2011-12.
Stats Line: 39GP – 8G – 9A – 17PTS, -7
Advanced Stats: 1.98 EV PTS/60, 43.1 ZS OPCT, -5.2 RCorsi, 97.9 PDO

Chimera is a pretty useful guy to have around. He’s first and foremost a great skater, and while he isn’t the kind of guy who bangs heads together he doesn’t have any trouble with physical play either. He can chip in a bit offensively, and he’s a veteran penalty-killer. He might be a little bit overpaid for what he does, but it isn’t by a lot and it isn’t a contract that’s going to hurt Washington in the long-term. They’ve taken on an affordable player signed for some length of time, and they’ve cleared a bunch of cap space while doing it.

As for what the advanced stats mean, the first number is Chimera’s even-strength scoring rate, which is very respectable. The second number indicates that he gets a lot of starts in the defensive zone, a factor which has drug down his relative Corsi number and his plus/minus. Relative Corsi indicates that the Blue Jackets were getting outshoit with Chimera on the ice, but given the number of defensive zone draws he was taking that’s not such a big deal. Finally, his PDO is the combination of his on-ice shooting and save percentages, and it’s a fair bit off of 100, indicating that we can probably expect his plus/minus to pick up a bit.

Chris Clark

Cap Hit: $2.633 million until 2010-11.
Stats Line: 38GP – 4G – 11A – 15PTS, -4
Advanced Stats: 1.64 EV PTS/60, 51.1 ZS OPCT, -1.4 RCorsi, 99.5 PDO

Chris Clark has always been an interesting player. The first mark against him is his salary; he parlayed a career-high 18.3 shooting percentage (career average: 10.6%) assisted by a bunch of power play time into a contract for a second-tier scorer, but the reality is that he’s far more likely to be a 30-point than a 50-point man. The fact that he was Washington’s team captain is a pretty good indicator of the kind of character he has a reputation for, and he’s a guy who doesn’t mind getting his nose dirty or going to difficult areas of the ice. Possibly of interest: Clark has only once been a positive plus/minus player over any season of his career; he’s minus-37 through a little over 500 games played.

Milan Jurcina

Cap Hit: $1.375 million until 2009-10, pending unrestricted free agent.
Stats Line: 27GP – 0G – 4A – 4PTS, even
Advanced StatS: 0.61 EV PTS/60, 49.2 ZS OPCT, -5.0 RCorsi, 100.4 PDO

One thing that Jurcina doesn’t bring to the table is offence; he’s never hit the 30-point plateau in junior, the minors, or the NHL. The 6’4″ rearguard will help fill the hole created by Rostislav Klesla‘s long-term injury, however, and he should fit the bill as a stay-at-home guy for the Blue Jackets. Jurcina generally racks up high totals in the shot-block and hits departments and this year is no exception; he’s among the Capitals’ leaders in both categories, although he’s spent some time outside the lineup. Another point of interest: in nine seasons in the QMJHL, AHL and NHL, Jurcina’s only been a minus player once: he was minus-1 as a rookie professional with the Providence Bruins in 2003-04.

Final Thoughts

I really like this trade for the Capitals. They clear up a bunch of salary, and this move combined with the banishment of Michael Nylander gives them room to add a legitimate player (or even two) at the trade deadline. Jurcina was mostly a spare part for the Capitals, and Chimera should be able to bring most of what Clark brought for a more modest price. I also doubt that the loss of their team captain will be a crippling blow to team chemistry.

I’m less fond of this deal from a Jackets’ perspective. They did need to add a piece on defence but I would have thought that swapping a draft pick for a guy like Jurcina would have been enough. I have my doubts that Clark will represent a substantial upgrade on Chimera. Not only that, but the team’s real problem, the problem that has them sinking down the Western Conference standings, is poor goaltending and this move doesn’t address that issue.

Further thoughts can be found at The Cannon and Japer’s Rink.

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I’ve never been able to figure out why the Sedin twins (still referred to as “the Sisters”, even by some Canucks fans) fail to get the respect they deserve. Together, they’re a force to be reckoned with, one of the league’s most potent even-strength duos. Last year, allowing for ice-time, both ranked in the top-12 of NHL players based on even-strength production and there’s no denying – either based on statistics or simply by watching them play – that they keep the puck in the right end of the rink and generate a lot of scoring opportunities.

I’ve also always been fascinated by comparisons with these players; the chance to study identical twins doesn’t come along very often in the NHL, and it’s an opportunity that should be taken. Vic Ferrari of Irreverent Oiler Fans ran two interesting posts at the start of last season on the twins, both looking at their numbers when apart (coach Alain Vigneault split them at times in 2007-08) as compared to when they were together, and both posts are well worth reading. In the first, Ferrari pointed to the difference in minutes they were playing – Daniel was getting a fairly even split in terms of territorial starts, and was doing it with Ryan Kesler and Alex Burrows, while Henrik was getting a bunch of defensive zone work with Taylor Pyatt and Mason Raymond. In the second post, he took a long look at the ramifications of those moves, which basically amount to Daniel racking up the goals and points while Henrik was out-shot and out-played.

Vigneault did something similar this season when Daniel was injured, putting Henrik out for far more defensive zone draws. With the two of them together, Vigneault did his best to get them out in the offensive zone, but with just Henrik he ran him pretty much even in terms of offensive vs. defensive zone starts. That’s unfortunate for my purposes, since it makes it more difficult to isolate the impact of Henrik playing without Daniel (since there are now more variables in play) but I think it’s still interesting to look at some numbers of Henrik vs. Henrik and Daniel together. All numbers at even-strength and courtesy timeonice.com.

Goals For/Against

Henrik & Daniel: +21/-8 = +13
Henrik alone: +13/-11 = +2

Corsi (shots made, missed and blocked) For/Against

Henrik & Daniel: +304/-205 = +99 (59.7%)
Henrik alone: +257/-238 = +19 (51.9%)

Those are pretty significant drops. The first is the actual plus/minus numbers with Henrik with vs. without Daniel, and while the two of them together were dominant, Henrik alone was simply good. The Corsi number is a fine indication of where the puck is at any given time; with Henrik and Daniel together we see it’s in the offensive half nearly 60% of the time, while with Henrik alone we see it’s still in the offensive half roughly 52% of the time.

The obvious conclusion is that both are very, very good hockey players. Together, they are one of the most dominant tandems in the NHL, whether they get credit for it or not. But even without his brother, and even playing tougher minutes, Henrik Sedin is a very good hockey player – a centre who helps drive the puck in the right direction. If the Canucks can ever solidify their bottom six, these are players good enough to help them contend.

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I mentioned last week how my opponent (Nathan Eide of Hockey Wilderness) didn’t seem to be paying much attention to his fantasy team, and that held up in a 10-1-2 romp. The sole point of redemption for his team (aside from the fact that I don’t have goal scorers) was one Dwayne Roloson, who has been very good for the New York Islanders this season and who won two games last week, with a 2.28 GAA and .925 SV%. Combine that with a relatively poor week for Marc-Andre Fleury (one win, 3.99 GAA, .905 SV%) and it was enough to deprive me of three points.

Category: Willis – Eide

Goals: 11 - 10

Assists: 21 – 6

Plus/Minus: +1 – -1

PIM: 16 – 13

PPG: 2 – 2

PPA: 10 – 2

GWG: 2 – 1

SOG: 94 – 63

Wins: 2 – 2

GAA: 2.85 – 2.28

Saves: 128 – 86

SV%: .928 – .925

Shutouts: 1 – 0

Transactions

A very slow transaction week for me was interrupted by only one move, a move that I didn’t especially want to make. Justin Williams, a late pick gamble on my part had been playing very well (on a line with Ryan Smyth and Anze Kopitar for a good portion of the season) and although he wasn’t setting the world on fire he did have eight goals and 24 points through 33 games. Unfortunately, Williams was carted off the ice on a stretcher on Saturday after breaking his right leg, so rather than wait for the team to put him on IR I dropped him and brought back Steve Downie, who brings a few things (powerplay goals and PIM) that I don’t have on the roster right now. I looked in vain for a LW (I only have two on the team) and will hopefully address that hole via trade, but none of the available free agents (Rostislav Olesz, Tanner Glass and Shawn Thornton were ranked highest, although I probably would have taken Robert Nilsson) were particularly inspiring.

Week 13 Matchup

My opposition next week comes in the form of Second City Hockey‘s fantasy team, a group that has struggled so far this season and sits just slightly below the middle of the pack. Last week I would have managed a record of 8-3-2 against them, surprisingly with my goaltenders as the weak point (SCH is running out a tandem of Tim Thomas and Chris Mason). With any luck I’ll be able to post something similar, as despite my strong run I’m still 10 points out of first.

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